Go to Villagebet.com.au for free horse racing tips - Click here now |
|
2021 Melbourne Cup 3200m |
Post Reply | Page <1 34567 20> |
Author | |
Pardon_My_Dust
Champion Joined: 01 Dec 2009 Status: Offline Points: 9124 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
Sorry about the format.
No limt to the penalty.
|
|
Afros
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2009 Status: Offline Points: 15508 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
I wonder if they'll also consider the Turnbull when considering his penalty for the MC? He beat Verry Elleegant by 3.5L carrying 0.5KG more than here, so they may also consider that, alongside the manner of his victory yesterday when looking at his weight.
I feel like 2.5kg wouldn't be harsh, he's just strung together 3 G1's on end defeating several of the better horses in the land but my gut feel is they'll give him 1.5kg as while they won't admit it, they'll want him in the race just for the interest he'll attract.
|
|
Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8684 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
I think Incentivise will get a 1.5kg weight penalty for the Melbourne Cup, if that was to happen, then he would be carrying 57kg in the Melbourne Cup. Below are the Caulfield Cup winners since 1980, their weight penalty (if any) for the Melbourne Cup, plus the weight they carried and where they finished in the Melbourne Cup.
MELBOURNE CUP PENALTIES TO CAULFIELD CUP WINNERS SINCE 1980 2020 – VERRY ELLEEGANT (5M) +0.5kg to 55.5kg, 7th. 2019 – MER DE GLACE (5H) +1kg to 56kg, 6th. 2018 – BEST SOLUTION (5H) No penalty to 57.5kg, 8th. 2017 – BOOM TIME (6G) +1kg to 53kg, 15th. 2016 – JAMEKA (4M) +1.5kg to 54.5kg, 15th. 2015 – MONGOLIAN KHAN (4H) +1kg to 56kg, Did not run. 2014 – ADMIRE RAKTI (7H) +0.5kg to 58.5kg, 22nd. 2013 – FAWKNER (6G) +1.5kg to 54.5kg, 6th. 2012 – DUNADEN (7H) +1kg to 59kg, 14th. 2011 – SOUTHERN SPEED (4M) Not entered in Melbourne Cup. 2010 – DESCARADO (4G) +1.5kg to 54kg, Failed to finish. 2009 – VIEWED (6H) +1kg to 58kg, 7th. 2008 – ALL THE GOOD (6H) +2kg to 55kg, Did not run. 2007 – MASTER O'REILLY (5G) +1.5kg to 53kg, 8th. 2006 – TAWQEET (5H) +2kg to 55.5kg, 19th. 2005 – RAILINGS (4G) +2kg to 54kg, 14th. 2004 – ELVSTROEM (4H) +2.5kg to 56.5kg, 4th. 2003 – MUMMIFY (4G) +2.5kg to 55kg, Did not run. 2002 – NORTHERLY (6G) +2kg to 60kg, Did not run. 2001 – ETHEREAL (4M) +2kg to 52kg, Won. 2000 – DIATRIBE (4H) +2.5kg to 55kg, 11th. 1999 – SKY HEIGHTS (4G) +1.5kg to 56.5kg, 17th. 1998 – TAUFAN'S MELODY (8G) +2.5kg to 56kg, 4th. 1997 – MIGHT AND POWER (4G) +3.5kg to 56kg, Won. 1996 – ARCTIC SCENT (4M) +3kg to 51.5kg, 12nd. 1995 – DORIEMUS (5G) +3kg to 54.5kg, Won. 1994 – PARIS LANE (4G) +3kg to 54.5kg, 2nd. 1993 – FRAAR (6H) +2kg to 56kg, 13th. 1992 – MANNERISM (4M) Not entered in Melbourne Cup. 1991 – LET'S ELOPE (4M) +2.5kg to 51kg, Won. 1990 – SYDESTON (5G) +2.5kg to 58.5kg, 11th. 1989 – COLE DIESEL (5G) +1kg to 53kg, 16th. 1988 – IMPOSERA (4M) Not entered in Melbourne Cup. 1987 – LORD REIMS (6G) +2.5kg to 54.5kg, Did not run. 1986 – MR LOMONDY (6G) +2kg to 56.5kg, 8th. 1985 – TRISTARC (4M) +3kg to 52.5kg, 8th. 1984 – AFFINITY (5G) +2.5kg to 55.5kg, 6th. 1983 – HAYAI (4H) +2kg to 55kg, 15th. 1982 – GURNER'S LANE (4G) +3kg to 56kg, Won. 1981 – SILVER BOUNTY (4H) Not entered in Melbourne Cup. 1980 – MING DYNASTY (7G) No penalty to 58kg, 17th. ** Jameka had 0.5kg penalty and weights were raised 0.5kg in Caulfield Cup. ** ** Master O'Reilly won Caulfield Cup with 50kg, 3kg penalty - 1.5kg for Herbert Power and 1.5kg for Caulfield Cup.** ** Cole Diesel won Caulfield Cup with 50kg, 3.5kg penalty - 2.5kg for Toorak Handicap and 1kg for Caulfield Cup (Cole Diesel had 49.5kg in Melbourne Cup).** |
|
Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
|
|
Baghdad Bob
Champion Joined: 10 Feb 2010 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 13693 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
Tlaz, despite your reference to the Melbourne Cup as being a cultural artifact can you name any other sporting event in Australia that unites all Australians on one day of the year ?
|
|
Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31445 |
Post Options
Thanks(1)
|
There is no such day, including MC day.
|
|
An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.
Simon Cameron |
|
Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8684 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
|
|
VOYAGER
Champion Joined: 03 Aug 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 18737 |
Post Options
Thanks(1)
|
Okay on the penalty.
My understanding from a VRC staffer close to Carpenter is this is how it is done. 1. He looks at the Caulfield Cup about ten times and looks at everything to come up with a undiluted penalty. 2. He then allocates the penalty. This penalty is one he would give the winner if everything was exactly the same at Flemington, distance, class of opponent and conditions etc..., which of course it is not. 3. He then looks at the difference between the Caulfield Cup field, and the top 40 in the ballot for the Melbourne Cup (because some could win a Geelong Cup or a Lexus and then move up the order) and he decides whether the Melbourne Cup will be a race with more quality. 4. He factors in the winners ability to run 3200m. 5. He then factors whether he has already given the winner a penalty. 6. He looks at the past Caulfield Cup winners and their p[enalty allocation and record at Flemington. 7. He looks at the forecast for the week leading into the Melbourne Cup and sees whether the conditions will suit the winner. After he has factored all those 3 to 6 factors he then decides whether to allocate the undiluted penalty or to subtract from that penalty until he comes up with an appropriate penalty. I think some people, even in the media seem to think a penalty is meant to make the horses task almost impossible, but that is not the case, the penalty is designed to weight the winner to his best while still giving them a chance to win the second race. If I was looking at the penalty this way then this is what I would do. 1. I have watched the Caulfield Cup and for me the winner had the perfect run. Everything went perfectly for him, but it was one of the best wins in the race so I would allocate him an undiluted 2 kgs penalty, that would take him to 57.5 kgs. 2. Now factoring in that, that means he has already given him 4kgs penalty (because as he said he was getting 53.5kgs before he won the Makybe Diva). 3. This year the quality of the Melbourne Cup will be better as is the case, but it will not be significantly stronger. 4. He looks like a 3200m horse but until the horse runs you do not know so that has to be a negative. 5. The conditions of the Tuesday looks like he will get track conditions to suit. For me if the connections have any doubt they will not run, so as the handicapper I am also trying to entice them to run, so for me I think a kilogram is an appropriate penalty as I think he can win or at least have a chance with 56.5 kgs but if he gets 57+, he is probably weighted out of winning the race and he might run second or third at best, like So You Think did and others like Criterion, Hartnell and Dunaden and Americain after winning the previous years cup. I am absolutely sure the VRC have told Carpenter to give him enough weight to see him run, but not enough to make him no chance of winning.
|
|
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
|
|
Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31445 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
7. He looks at the forecast for the week leading into the Melbourne Cup and sees whether the conditions will suit the winner. So the handicapper fancies himself as a Melbourne weather forecaster.
|
|
An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.
Simon Cameron |
|
Magnolian Khan
Champion Joined: 23 Dec 2015 Location: SA Status: Offline Points: 8437 |
Post Options
Thanks(1)
|
Probably more accurate than Jane Bunn
|
|
furious
Champion Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Status: Offline Points: 25179 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
He's a drawcard now but that doesn't mean so much in the age of covid!
|
|
Afros
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2009 Status: Offline Points: 15508 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
I guess there is still the legion of $10 punters who'll have their once a year bet on him because they love the story and may even up it a little bit because he's favourite. So it'll increase turnover a little maybe. But then I guess they'll just pick another instead.
|
|
furious
Champion Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Status: Offline Points: 25179 |
Post Options
Thanks(1)
|
Iglesia is one of the main reasons this boy can stay. Remember Yippyio - 2nd in a Melbourne Cup and a 1/2 brother to Iglesia.
|
|
Pardon_My_Dust
Champion Joined: 01 Dec 2009 Status: Offline Points: 9124 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
Igelsia the subject of an enormous betting plunge one new years day in the late 90s in the Standish Hcp. Russell cameron stable famous for hits like that back in the day. The thing bolted home.
Back on topic the horse will just win with 57kg IMO. Looks like he'll lap up every bit of the 3200m and that's more than half the battle.
|
|
Hello Sunshine
Champion Joined: 21 Feb 2021 Status: Offline Points: 4175 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
What a damn shame there are not more Iglesia's around.
Why is that?
|
|
Hello Sunshine
Champion Joined: 21 Feb 2021 Status: Offline Points: 4175 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
found out.
Queensland sire Iglesia leaves a legacy of speedTHREE years ago, on account of her Daandine Stud, Jan Clark offered a colt by first-season sire Iglesia at the 2004 Magic Millions sale on the Gold Coast and went home quite pleased when he sold for $50,000. The colt, who was named Written Tycoon, proved to be one of the better two-year-olds of his year, taking out the Todman Slipper Trial at Rosehill, but has had problems since with injury. Two weeks ago, that initial investment of the Written Bloodstock Syndicate was dwarfed by the announcement that the John O'Shea-trained galloper would be syndicated in a multimillion-dollar deal to stand at Victoria's biggest stud, Eliza Park, next season. It followed the recent demise of Iglesia, one of the most promising young stallions in the country, who was put down at Oaklands Stud in Queensland following a bout of laminitis. Such had been his popularity at stud that he had served huge books every year since being retired from racing in 2001 and from an initial service fee of $6000, he stood the past two seasons at $22,000 — the most expensive sire in the state. In next month's Gold Coast Magic Millions sale, he has the biggest representation of any sire, with 52 yearlings listed for sale.As with his sire, Written Tycoon is a flashy type and had the ability to match, although he has to date not been able to win a group 1 event. O'Shea, who says the four-year-old has as much ability as any sprinter he has trained, hopes to remedy that in one of the group 1 sprints over the Sydney Easter carnival. The stallion has lived up to Clark's expectations, although she also would love to see him pick up a group 1 before he is retired. "In this business, you dream about things happening and I've always tried to breed horses like him (Written Tycoon) but it is tough competing against the higher-profile studs," she said. Clark's great-grandfather James started breeding thoroughbreds alongside his cattle interests in 1922 and Daandine Stud is the second-oldest family-owned operation in Queensland but rarely has more than about 15 mares. One of its best gallopers in recent times was Starmaker, who Clark and her late father Jim bred and raced with success. Clark bought Written Tycoon's dam, Party Miss, privately straight off the racetrack and said the timing could not have been better. Within a year or so of buying Party Miss, her close relations Anthems and Vocalist had bolstered her pedigree with some black type and later, at stud, Vocalist produced top sprinter Yell. Written Tycoon is her fourth foal, with two of the first three being multiple winners. A group 1 win by Written Tycoon in the autumn would come too late to help the sale of his brother next month but it wouldn't be the first time racetrack wins have come too late for Clark at sale time. On the day Written Tycoon had his first official barrier trial, running fourth of nine at Warwick Farm, his younger sister was sold at the Magic Millions sale for only $20,000. Only a few months later, she was a half-sister to a group 2 winner. "We had no indication of what he might be capable of at the time. Hindsight is a wonderful thing," Clark said. Whereas Written Tycoon is a chestnut, his yearling brother is a brown but Clark says he is just as flashy and should demand plenty of attention. Party Miss has a filly at foot by Taimazov, and was served this year by Lion Hunter's son Ferocity, who stood alongside Iglesia at Oaklands Stud. As with Iglesia, those two horses fit Clark's stallion selection criteria of having outstanding speed. "When breeding horses for commercial success, you've got to look for speed. Iglesia had it and he has passed it on to his progeny," Clark said.https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/queensland-sire-iglesia-leaves-a-legacy-of-speed-20061229-ge3vys.html |
|
furious
Champion Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Status: Offline Points: 25179 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
And guess what. Stayers need speed also. Makes for a better class stayer. The only thing our stud masters want to push is speed because people want and need that. But they forget that if a horse has speed it doesn't mean it can't stay.
Also you answered you own question. Queensland based stallions have to fight to get their blood onto the NSW or even Victorian studs. But sometimes the big boys overlook a special horse. Iglesia didn't have that important G1 win. Well Written Tycoon and I am Invincible have well and truly shown that up for a silly requirement. Lots of G1 winners just don't perform at stud but I guess they have a better chance than the others just because they serve the cream of the crop usually.
|
|
djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
Interesting statistics -
Melbourne Cup Weights Trivia:
In the metric era (since 1972), 84 Melb Cup runners have carried 57kg or higher for this return: 1sts:
THINK BIG-1975 (58.5kg)
GOLD AND BLACK-1977 (57kg)
MAKYBE DIVA-2005 (58kg) 6 2nds,
5 3rds
70 Unplaced That obviously means over 1000 horses have carried less than 57 kgs. 3/49 11/98 Edited by djebel - 18 Oct 2021 at 7:19pm |
|
reductio ad absurdum
|
|
Jamal
Champion Joined: 25 Jul 2011 Status: Offline Points: 8684 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
Good work Djebel - excellent research.
Yep you're right - it's hard for a horse to win the Melbourne Cup carrying 57kg or more. I'd even say that its hard for a horse to win the Melbourne Cup carrying 55kg or more - its only happened 16 times since metric weights were used (1972). So it seems that "sweet spot" in terms of winning weights is up to 54.5kg
|
|
Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
|
|
djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
Post Options
Thanks(1)
|
That was not my conclusion. Very few horses are asked to carry more than 57 kgs. Of course the vast majority of winners are going to carry less than 57 kgs. They are the vast majority of horses. It is a self fulfilling prophecy.
Edited by djebel - 18 Oct 2021 at 8:59pm |
|
reductio ad absurdum
|
|
Magnolian Khan
Champion Joined: 23 Dec 2015 Location: SA Status: Offline Points: 8437 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
King Of Leogrance and Dawn Patrol (R Hickmott) will not be continuing their Spring campaign.
|
|
Magnolian Khan
Champion Joined: 23 Dec 2015 Location: SA Status: Offline Points: 8437 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
Mirage Dancer EIPH at Geelong today
Johnny Get Angry in horrendous form, surely the VRC refuse to accept him
|
|
Afros
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2009 Status: Offline Points: 15508 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
I posted in the Carif thread, agreed on Johnny Get Angry, Explosive Jack and Knights Order aren't going that great either.
|
|
Carioca
Champion Joined: 13 Nov 2015 Status: Offline Points: 21830 |
Post Options
Thanks(1)
|
VRC Derby and the Oaks are becoming a " Bridge Too Far " for our youngsters imo, the 2500 is murderous , either cut the distance or run it at Caulfield over 2400 , Samantha Miss her effort still haunts me , have a look at her record after her win , it's littered with train wrecks .
|
|
Pardon_My_Dust
Champion Joined: 01 Dec 2009 Status: Offline Points: 9124 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
Knights Order guaranteed to set a decent speed I guess. No chance of winning.
|
|
Tlazolteotl
Champion Joined: 02 Oct 2012 Location: Elephant Butte Status: Offline Points: 31445 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
I wonder how long it will take the VRC to get out of their 1855 thinking and change something? It only took the AJC 118 years to change to the autumn. Tradition - love it.
|
|
An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.
Simon Cameron |
|
Progold
Champion Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 3212 |
Post Options
Thanks(1)
|
The record of VRC Derby winners in recent years has been quite ordinary. The last one to go on to win a Melbourne Cup as a 4yo was the wonderful albeit underrated Efficient. Instead of discussing whether it is moved from 2500m, what about considering moving it to the Autumn. Another 3yo race can be scheduled for the Spring maybe over 2000m to basically give another option for 3yo's after the Caulfield Guineas. Seeing as it is no longer a qualifier for the Melbourne Cup, the VRC Derby could be moved to the Autumn (along with the VRC Oaks) and a real 3yo Triple Crown could be run. Imagine the AJC/VRC and BRC Triple Crown. They used to form a Triple Crown with the AJC Derby first, followed by the VRC Derby, and the QTC Derby was run in December. The SA Derby could be included and we could have four legs to the Autumn 3yo classics. The programme could largely correspond to the same distances as the US Triple Crown.
|
|
Carioca
Champion Joined: 13 Nov 2015 Status: Offline Points: 21830 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
Well that is a great post Progold but I must ask , how come we ( us plebs ) can see the advantage of moving these " killer races " but the powers that be , can't?? I had a look at some that got through and raced on with destination both here and O/S but you have to go back a bit , Mahogany , Elvstroem, Efficient, Red Anchor and Dulcify , but before them some beauties , they need a good wake up imo.
|
|
Carioca
Champion Joined: 13 Nov 2015 Status: Offline Points: 21830 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
2400 metres before the change , Sailors Guide, Tulloch , Sky High ( Golden Slipper winner ) Tobin Bronze , coulda found plenty more , there are people who mention the " good old days " but when you look at the people in charge you can understand why it will Never be , they won't look behind the curtain !
|
|
Second Chance
Champion Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Offline Points: 45805 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
Do a V'landy's in reverse. Run the VRC Derby a week before the ATC equivalent with about half an Everest payday with slots similarly purchased and offered.
Two Derbies in the Autumn won't work.
|
|
Pardon_My_Dust
Champion Joined: 01 Dec 2009 Status: Offline Points: 9124 |
Post Options
Thanks(0)
|
I think their Derby is worth a lot more.
|
|
Post Reply | Page <1 34567 20> |
Tweet |
Forum Jump | Forum Permissions You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot create polls in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum |