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2021 Melbourne Cup 3200m

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Jamal View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Oct 2021 at 3:29pm
Today, Racing Victoria's Chief Handicapper Greg Carpenter announced a weight penalty of 1kg for Grand Prominade for winning the Bart Cummings (G3 - 2500m) and a weight penalty of 1kg for Montefilia winning the Metropolitan (G1 - 2400m). This means both horses will now have 52kg for the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups. Montefilia will be looking to become the first horse since Tawqueet (2006) to win the Metropolitan/Caulfield Cup double in the same year and the first horse since Macdougall (1959) to do the Metropolitan/Melbourne Cup double in the same year. As Grand Prominade won the Bart Cummings, he now is guaranteed a start in the Melbourne Cup and he will be looking to join Almandin (2016) and Brew (2000) as horses to do the Bart Cummings/Melbourne Cup double in the same year.
Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Oct 2021 at 10:35am
The Bart Cummings - Winners: Timeform Ratings

2021: Grand Prominade: 112

2020: Persan: 111

2019: Surprise Baby: 116

2018: Avilius: 119

2017: Amelie's Star: 110

2016: Almandin: 112

2015: Let's Make Adeal: 111

2014: Who Shot Thebarman: 116

2013: Araldo: 108

2012: Tanby: 111

2011: Mourayan: 119

2010: Harris Tweed: 118

2009: Light Vision: 116

2008: Light Vision: 111

2007: Dolphin Jo: 107


For those who are interested in Realm Of Flowers in termsof her performance in the Bart Cummings, where she ran 6th, only 2.75 lengths away from the winner Grand Promenade, her Timeform rating was 106. Grand Promenade's 112 was a new career peak Timeform rating for him.
Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Magnolian Khan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Oct 2021 at 1:52pm
Delphi given 1kg penalty. Now 53.5


South Australian stayer Hasta La War, who is trained by Sue Murphy, has now passed the ballot for the Melbourne Cup and is up to 58th in the Order of Entry after finishing third in the Herbert Power Stakes.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shawy38 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Oct 2021 at 11:07am
Real of Flowers sent to the paddock, won't be running.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Oct 2021 at 11:40am
Originally posted by Shawy38 Shawy38 wrote:

Real of Flowers sent to the paddock, won't be running.

Any reasons?
Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Oct 2021 at 11:51am
Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Oct 2021 at 12:43pm
My internet was down earlier on my phone and I wasn't at work to see the news which is why I ask.

Good enough reason Thumbs Up tho' there was no need to quote my post immediately above, the thread'll be long enough as it is & people have trouble reading on their phones - apparently.


Edited by Gay3 - 15 Oct 2021 at 3:03pm
Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Oct 2021 at 9:11am

Paul Kent

The Daily Murdoch


"Sometimes, a time machine would be nice.

There was a time when it would have been a small sacrilege to suggest the Melbourne Cup would fade from the public conscience but with each year, by one small degree, Racing Victoria is ensuring the Cup is not what it used to be.

If we could climb into our time machine, would The Everest be the dominant race in Australia?

It is not as crazy as it sounds.

While the internationals were supposed to open the Melbourne Cup and put it on the world stage, the opposite is happening within Australia.

Every year the international raiders land, some don’t even race now before getting into the gates for the Cup, and then they go out, one of them wins the Cup, and they all head home.

Sometimes the trainers don’t even come, sending their staff to handle Cup preparations.

It is impossible to do form around the Cup and the whole magic it was built on, that the race was a handicap where anybody was a chance to win, or to own a Cup runner, has faded as the handicappers condensed the weights to keep the internationals happy.

Mostly, the heartwarming backstories that the Cup was built on have disappeared, replaced by rich owners and satellite trainers on hit-and-run missions.

Bart Cummings noticed it before anyone but his opposition to it was portrayed as Cummings being selfish, unprepared to share the race with the world.

The best way the local trainers have found to compete is to head overseas and buy their own import, which Gai Waterhouse proved in 2013 when she bought Fiorente specifically to win the Melbourne Cup. But that’s just more of the same.

Meanwhile, The Everest, which runs on Saturday at Randwick, continues to build, both in terms of recognition and prestige."

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Afros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Oct 2021 at 9:50am
There is some truth in that, I find the build up to the Everest interesting to follow with the lead up races in both Sydney and Melbourne, but there is some irony in using the Everest, a race literally set up as a play thing for the rich slot holders, as the replacement for the Melbourne Cup in people's hearts and minds.

Also, lets be honest, the Everest concept is at it's strongest in seasons like it has had so far where there is no dominant sprinting horse around so several are a chance, in Black Caviar's time she would have dominated this race and they'd have struggled to fill any of the slots, the race would have a different complexion in that case.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Oct 2021 at 2:33pm
The Melbourne Cup is a cultural artifact created back in ancient times when long distances were all the rage in the colonies, just like the mother country.

Interesting facts about its creator Captain Frederick Charles Standish. He went broke on the punt in England. One of his jobs in Australia was Protector of the Chinese.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Oct 2021 at 6:57pm
Half a kg penalty for Incentivise?Tongue
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Oct 2021 at 7:00pm
I flippantly said elsewhere he should go there with 59.5 kgs. Of course it is a fair class rise from the Cualfield Cup to the Melbourne Cup. 

Will be interesting to see what he gets.
reductio ad absurdum
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Oct 2021 at 7:04pm
I suspect that the handicapper wants him to win it so will spin a great yarn based on some obscure precedent for a relatively small penalty.Wink But if thats not a 3kg penalty performance I'm Batman.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Magnolian Khan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Oct 2021 at 7:05pm
Could give him 60kg and he’ll win
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Oct 2021 at 7:06pm
Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

I suspect that the handicapper wants him to win it so will spin a great yarn based on some obscure precedent for a relatively small penalty.Wink But if thats not a 3kg penalty performance I'm Batman.

Not sure he will get a 3kg penalty.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Oct 2021 at 7:06pm
58.5 is probably a fair weight. 
reductio ad absurdum
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pardon_My_Dust Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Oct 2021 at 7:28pm
No way he gets 3kg! Max 2kg I'm tipping 1.5kg.

RACING Victoria has moved to “reinvigorate the iconic link” between Australia’s two premier staying races by adjusting its rehandicapping policy between the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups.

The change follows a review into the performances of Caulfield Cup winners in the Melbourne Cup over the past 40 years uncovered an alarming trend of uncompetitiveness.

WILLIAMS: CUP WEIGHT IS RIGHT FOR IRISH STAR

Analysis showed only a handful of Caulfield Cup winners were able to contend after rehandicapping for Flemington.

Any horse originally allocated 56kg or more for this year’s Melbourne Cup will now not be rehandicapped for a Caulfield Cup victory. Any winner of the Caulfield Cup with a weight less than 56kg for Flemington is guaranteed not to rise above the 56kg threshold.

Racing Victoria executive general manager Greg Carpenter.
Racing Victoria executive general manager Greg Carpenter.

“There has been much debate around the impact the prospect of a weight penalty in the Melbourne Cup has had in dissuading connections from competing in the Caulfield Cup, and our analysis shows that there is indeed evidence to support this,” RV chief handicapper Greg Carpenter said on Tuesday.

“In announcing today’s change of policy, I want to ensure that people understand that any horse given 56kg or more in the Melbourne Cup will by definition already have a well-established performance profile.

“History shows that in the past 40 years, no horse has been able to complete the Cups double carrying more than 56kg in the Melbourne Cup.

“Gurner’s Lane (1982) and Might and Power (1997) both carried 56kg to victory and won narrowly, with the second-placed horses carrying more in the weights.

Might And Power (right) hung on under 56kg to win the 1997 Melbourne Cup after being rehandicapped for his win in the Caulfield Cup.
Might And Power (right) hung on under 56kg to win the 1997 Melbourne Cup after being rehandicapped for his win in the Caulfield Cup.

“In saying that, it is entirely appropriate to consider issuing an additional penalty to a progressive or emerging stayer further down the weights in the Melbourne Cup if successful in Caulfield’s premier race.

“The same logic will be applied to any other race where the winner is liable for a re-handicap after the release of weights. Ultimately, in issuing a penalty, the handicapping panel believe that the quantum of the penalty itself is less important than where it takes the horse in the weights scale.”

Over the past four decades, 30 Caulfield Cup winners have lined up in the Melbourne Cup 17 days later, with five carrying a penalty and winning — Let’s Elope, Doriemus, Ethereal, Gurner’s Lane and Might and Power.

There are four entered for Caulfield who also have 56kg or more at Flemington — Hartnell, Almandin, Admire Deus and Humidor.

Almandin is unlikely to run in the Caulfield Cup.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pardon_My_Dust Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Oct 2021 at 7:29pm
So going by that he'll get 56kg?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Oct 2021 at 7:35pm
Not entirely sure about the relevance of something floated by the Williams family about four years ago. But happy to be corrected.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Oct 2021 at 7:51pm
Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

Paul Kent

The Daily Murdoch


"Sometimes, a time machine would be nice.

There was a time when it would have been a small sacrilege to suggest the Melbourne Cup would fade from the public conscience but with each year, by one small degree, Racing Victoria is ensuring the Cup is not what it used to be.

If we could climb into our time machine, would The Everest be the dominant race in Australia?

It is not as crazy as it sounds.

While the internationals were supposed to open the Melbourne Cup and put it on the world stage, the opposite is happening within Australia.

Every year the international raiders land, some don’t even race now before getting into the gates for the Cup, and then they go out, one of them wins the Cup, and they all head home.

Sometimes the trainers don’t even come, sending their staff to handle Cup preparations.

It is impossible to do form around the Cup and the whole magic it was built on, that the race was a handicap where anybody was a chance to win, or to own a Cup runner, has faded as the handicappers condensed the weights to keep the internationals happy.

Mostly, the heartwarming backstories that the Cup was built on have disappeared, replaced by rich owners and satellite trainers on hit-and-run missions.

Bart Cummings noticed it before anyone but his opposition to it was portrayed as Cummings being selfish, unprepared to share the race with the world.

The best way the local trainers have found to compete is to head overseas and buy their own import, which Gai Waterhouse proved in 2013 when she bought Fiorente specifically to win the Melbourne Cup. But that’s just more of the same.

Meanwhile, The Everest, which runs on Saturday at Randwick, continues to build, both in terms of recognition and prestige."


Before I make my case, I will let it be known again, I prefer races at 2000m+, than 1200m sprints so both the Golden Slipper and The Everest for me are useless races for racing fans.

Now my case to support that is.

1. The only reason this is a race people know, is because of the prizemoney. Yes the Melbourne Cup has huge prizemoney, but it was a historical race long before million dollar prizemoney purses were provided.

2. The Everest is a race that overseas participants, could not care less about. We have only had two or three runners in the race and so to say that this race is popular overseas with owners who want to run in the race is nonsense. Hasn't Godolphin had two or three quality sprinters since this race has been going, and they would rather run Trekking, who has run well all three times but to me that says they do not care about sending a quality international sprinter over.

3.  The only reason participants think it is great is the prizemoney. Melbourne does not have any quality group 1 sprints except for the VRC Sprint, and so they left themselves wide open for Sydney to swoop in and cover the sprinters each spring. The southerners will say what about the Moir and the Manikato, but they are at Moonee Valley and are not worth the correct prizemoney so they are not worth aiming at.

4. The media in Sydney are the ones who are pushing the race as a history maker and they are being helped by racing NSW and the breeding industry. And like the Slipper it is only a huge deal if you have a colt that wins. Geldings are no use to breeders and mares have not even looked like winning the race.

I agree with the article from the viewpoint that the Melbourne Cup is losing its significance, but I have no doubt that has nothing to do with The Everest because they are two totally different races, which target totally different audiences and wagering. 

The two main reasons for the drop in the cup support is that more Australians do not like gambling and are not interested in horse racing and the other reason is the younger generation who have been brainwashed into think that thoroughbred racing is somehow cruel and inhumane treatment of horses, by a segment of the community. 

As I have stated many times in several threads the Everest is a race which breeders and sales love because they can use this race and the Slipper and the Golden Eagle and others to sell their horses at a higher price.

The article says that internationals come in and only have one run and win and then go home. 

But as he stated Gai won with Fiorente and so she showed how to do it. I do not see what the difference is in buying a international, have them sent out and then trained by the local, than having a traditional prep. It is called doing the form and if you bet in the cup and you do not do the form, then you a re a member of what is called the mug punters for the cup. It sounds like Kent has not backed a winner since Bart won with Viewed in 2008 and if that is the case then he should either not bet on the race or how about doing the form. Twilight Payment won last year and anyone who did the form had him in the top three internationals so not sure why him winning would have been bad for business. 

The Everest does not grow in recognition or prestige. It is at its peak prestige and recognition wise. If the prizemoney drops to $10 million it will still gather the best 1200m horses in the country. It can not attract internationals or extra horses from say Hong Kong, Japan, the US and Europe, to add any extra prestige to the field so how does its prestige grow. It is like the Slipper. It is very rare that NZ 2yo run in the Slipper so that age restricted race can not add to its prestige by attracting new runners from outside Australia. 

Trainers like Joe Pride have said in the past why would he take any sprinter over to Ascot when the prizemoney is so good here and fair enough, But what that does is make the Australian trainers look like they are scared to travel over with the so called best sprinters in the world. Even all our champions that went over like Takeover Target, Scenic Blast, Starspangledbanner and others were beaten so when Black caviar was just about bloused by a French sprinter they have shown themselves to be scared stupid that their horse is not as good as what we may say they are. How do we know Nature Strip is the best sprinter in the world? Do we take Les Bridge's word from last year that Classique Legend was the best sprinter in the world because he won one race? 

The 28 years since Vintage Crops win in 1993 has seen the internationals come to the cup. The next step to add the prestige and recognition, is to attract the best stayers from Europe and Japan. This is a way that the VRC can add to the prestige of this race.  

The race today was just as exciting as when Eduardo beat Nature Strip in the Concorde last start. There was no more excitement today than that great race and so how does the Everest have prestige besides the amount of prizemoney?

I like The Everest as a race, but it is not even in the best ten races in Australia from a spectator point of view, and for me it has a long way to go to outreach the hype that the Sydney media push onto it. I mean Glen Munsie was talking about the market for next years race before the Craven Plate. 

Give me a break mate!

Anyway rant over, so move on Big smile 
         
     
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Oct 2021 at 7:52pm
1980-2020, biggest Caul Cup winners penalties to Melb Cup: 3.5kg: 1997-MIGHT AND POWER (to 56kg) 1st 3kg: 1982-GURNER’S LANE (to 56kg) 1st 1985-TRISTARC (to 52.5kg) 8th 1994-PARIS LANE (to 55.5kg) 2nd 1995-DORIEMUS (to 54.5kg) 1st 1996-ARCTIC SCENT (to 51.5kg) 12th
reductio ad absurdum
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Oct 2021 at 7:57pm
Thanks Bruce.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pardon_My_Dust Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Oct 2021 at 7:58pm
All of those rehandicapped above were horses already down low in the weights true?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Oct 2021 at 8:05pm
Having read the article you posted PMD it is mute.

If that article still applies he can only be penalised 0.5 kgs.

They have to take up the invitation. 
reductio ad absurdum
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Oct 2021 at 8:15pm
I reckon Incentivise will get a 1.5kg penalty for the Melbourne Cup
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mikey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Oct 2021 at 9:58pm
Greg Carpenter is a smart, sensible man and the best handicapper i have seen. Im thinking 1.5kgs too. In other words, 57kgs for the MC.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Oct 2021 at 10:12pm
Curious as to how Greg Carpenter is considered smart and sensible and the best handicapper in anybodies time in the game.

He has made his conclusions a self fulfilling prophecy. 



Originally posted by Pardon_My_Dust Pardon_My_Dust wrote:

No way he gets 3kg! Max 2kg I'm tipping 1.5kg.

RACING Victoria has moved to “reinvigorate the iconic link” between Australia’s two premier staying races by adjusting its rehandicapping policy between the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups.

The change follows a review into the performances of Caulfield Cup winners in the Melbourne Cup over the past 40 years uncovered an alarming trend of uncompetitiveness.

WILLIAMS: CUP WEIGHT IS RIGHT FOR IRISH STAR

Analysis showed only a handful of Caulfield Cup winners were able to contend after rehandicapping for Flemington.

Any horse originally allocated 56kg or more for this year’s Melbourne Cup will now not be rehandicapped for a Caulfield Cup victory. Any winner of the Caulfield Cup with a weight less than 56kg for Flemington is guaranteed not to rise above the 56kg threshold.

“There has been much debate around the impact the prospect of a weight penalty in the Melbourne Cup has had in dissuading connections from competing in the Caulfield Cup, and our analysis shows that there is indeed evidence to support this,” RV chief handicapper Greg Carpenter said on Tuesday. 
In announcing today’s change of policy, I want to ensure that people understand that any horse given 56kg or more in the Melbourne Cup will by definition already have a well-established performance profile.“History shows that in the past 40 years, no horse has been able to complete the Cups double carrying more than 56kg in the Melbourne Cup.“Gurner’s Lane (1982) and Might and Power (1997) both carried 56kg to victory and won narrowly, with the second-placed horses carrying more in the weights.“In saying that, it is entirely appropriate to consider issuing an additional penalty to a progressive or emerging stayer further down the weights in the Melbourne Cup if successful in Caulfield’s premier race.
“The same logic will be applied to any other race where the winner is liable for a re-handicap after the release of weights. Ultimately, in issuing a penalty, the handicapping panel believe that the quantum of the penalty itself is less important than where it takes the horse in the weights scale.”Over the past four decades, 30 Caulfield Cup winners have lined up in the Melbourne Cup 17 days later, with five carrying a penalty and winning — Let’s Elope, Doriemus, Ethereal, Gurner’s Lane and Might and Power.There are four entered for Caulfield who also have 56kg or more at Flemington — Hartnell, Almandin, Admire Deus and Humidor.Almandin is unlikely to run in the Caulfield Cup.


Edited by djebel - 16 Oct 2021 at 10:14pm
reductio ad absurdum
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pardon_My_Dust Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Oct 2021 at 10:12pm
Originally posted by djebel djebel wrote:

Having read the article you posted PMD it is mute.

If that article still applies he can only be penalised 0.5 kgs.

They have to take up the invitation. 

My point exactly. Someone took time to read the article. Beer 

Almost criminal if he does get just .5kg but unless they've changed their thinking 56kg it is.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Oct 2021 at 10:32am
I'm getting a 2kg penalty for Incentivise vibe. Tongue
An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought.

Simon Cameron

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Shawy38 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shawy38 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Oct 2021 at 12:26pm
Duais not running, gone to the paddock.
Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing
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