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2020 Melbourne Cup |
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cotto1 
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 Posted: 17 Jul 2020 at 8:59am |
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Sorry that was meant to be a ????
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mikey
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Posted: 20 Jul 2020 at 2:23pm |
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Surprise Baby is potentially a freak galloper. His run in last years MC was phenomenal coming off a slow speed. By all reports he is being prepared for a crack at the Cox Plate/Melbourne Cup double this spring and I for one consider him a serious chance in both races. He has won at Moonee Valley.
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cotto1
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Posted: 20 Jul 2020 at 2:46pm |
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Hi there guys:
Very interesting about surprise baby.with the current climate.is it very likely that surprise baby.will tackle both the Cox plate and the Melbourne cup?. Ty guys
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djebel
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Posted: 20 Jul 2020 at 3:04pm |
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There is no reason why he shouldn't.
The Cox Plates rightful status is as a Melbourne Cup lead up race. |
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reductio ad absurdum
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Gay3
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Posted: 25 Jul 2020 at 1:08pm |
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One for Redemption  THERE MIGHT BE AN INTERNATIONAL IN THE CUP AFTER ALL. THE HUNGARIAN CHAMPION, NO LESSJuly 22, 2020 4:23 pm By Matt Stewart, Racing Editor Have you heard about the Hungarian horse? You might come November, according to trainer Anthony Cummings, who trains the most exotic entry for this year’s Melbourne Cup, the former Hungarian horse of the year Nancho. After a “challenging” zig-zagging trip from Europe, Nancho arrived at Cummings’ Randwick stables some time ago and is due to trial on August 8. The son of ill-fated champion Monsun will have a Sydney campaign via races such as the Chelmsford, George Main, Hill Stakes and Epsom Handicap before heading south for the big Cups. Cummings has been impressed with the former Hungarian hero. “I feel I’ve got a decent chance of winning a big race in the spring with Nancho, hopefully it will be the Melbourne Cup,” Cummings told tdnausnz.com.au. “He looks the right type of horse, with a superb race record which sees him fully-qualified for the Cup and likely to get a weight that will guarantee a start. “Combine that with what looks like a Cup-winning pedigree to my eye, and a solid group of owners, it’s very exciting. Bring on the spring carnival.” Nancho was purchased earlier this year by Grant Bloodstock. Steve Grant told tdnausnz.com.au that Cummings’ European contacts had recommended they purchase Nancho, a Hungarian champion over multiple distances who won the Group One Grosser Preis von Bayern in Germany at his last start. He has won 11 of his 18 starts. “He (the agent) approached us with a few horses and when I started looking at this one, he was of particular interest,” Grant said. “He’s a long, sleek type and a bit lighter in condition than our horses, we’re quite excited about the possibilities. The “challenging” trip out here as described by Grant featured a transfer from Hungary to Germany and a partial road trip to Qatar, then a flight to Melbourne. “People have said they hope he wins one of these big races because it will make a great movie,” Grand said. |
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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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Sister Dot
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Posted: 25 Jul 2020 at 1:28pm |
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Why would they sell a horse like that? Age? Or cause he’s a gelding? Soundness?
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“Where in this wide world can man find nobility without pride, friendship without envy, or beauty without vanity? Here where grace is laced with muscle and strength by gentleness confined”
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Gay3
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Posted: 25 Jul 2020 at 2:14pm |
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An offer they couldn't refuse?
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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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VOYAGER
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Posted: 25 Jul 2020 at 9:37pm |
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Well if a horse owned by a Chechnyan terrorist leader can run third in cup can not see why a Hungarian horse could not run well.
Doesn't all great things come from Hungary
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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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kavg
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Posted: 26 Jul 2020 at 1:04am |
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Unless I have the wrong horse, Matt Stewart needs to do more homework. He is not a son of Monsun. His granddam is. Big difference.
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Prejudice is an emotional attachment to ignorance.
DiEM25 for the world. |
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djebel
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Posted: 26 Jul 2020 at 1:20am |
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At this stage, Nancho will be the top weight.
Now whether that means he gets 58 or 57 and the rest drop will be up the imaginative mind of Greg Carpenter.
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reductio ad absurdum
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djebel
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Posted: 26 Jul 2020 at 1:22am |
Prince Of Arran and Mustajeer with 112 ratings and no group 1 wins to their names, whilst the filly Nancho beat in Germany is around the 110 mark, Nancho will be entitled to around the 113/114 mark. |
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reductio ad absurdum
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djebel
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Posted: 26 Jul 2020 at 8:43pm |
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Cross Counter......................118 Master Of Reality.................117 Barney Roy..........................116Magic Wand.........................115
Prince Of Arran....................113 Twilight Payment.................112 Buckhurst.............................111 True Self..............................110 Dashing Willoughby.............109 Edited by djebel - 26 Jul 2020 at 8:48pm |
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reductio ad absurdum
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VOYAGER
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Posted: 29 Jul 2020 at 4:28pm |
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One of the more intriguing potential overseas runners is Dashing Willoughby and he has a new majority owner in Sir Owen Glen.
What do our international form analysts think of his hopes, to me he seems a definite top five contender!
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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Gay3
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Posted: 29 Jul 2020 at 4:51pm |
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A leading Melbourne Cup hopeful has been purchased by Kiwi millionaire and Go Bloodstock owner Owen Glenn. Emerging stayer Dashing Willoughby is set to head to Australia to tackle this year's Melbourne Cup after Glenn acquired a majority share in the UK-based four-year-old this week. Dashing Willoughby is currently an $18 chance for this year's Melbourne Cup after impressing back in his home country before Glenn bought in. The son of Nathaniel, a winner of four of 12 starts, has excelled in his four-year-old season and flashed his Cup credentials when winning the Listed Buckhounds Stakes (2414m) at Newmarket last month. He followed it up by beaten a quality field that included 2018 Melbourne Cup winner Cross Counter to capture the Group III Henry II Stakes (3264m). Trainer Andrew Balding is expected to remain as trainer of Dashing Willoughby, which is set to run in the Group II Lonsdale Cup (3270m) at York on August 21 before heading to Australia. However, with international travel restrictions still in place it's unlikely that Balding would be able to join Dashing Willoughby for the Melbourne Cup at Flemington on November 3. Glenn was notably the owner of four-time Group I winner Criterion, which finished runner up in a Cox Plate and third in the Melbourne Cup in 2015. The likes of Monaco Consul, Comin' Through and Pure Elation have also worn Glenn's prominent yellow and white silks. |
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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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djebel
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Posted: 30 Jul 2020 at 1:42am |
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Dunaden son wins at Goodwood
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reductio ad absurdum
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djebel
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Posted: 30 Jul 2020 at 5:27pm |
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William Pike has been booked to ride Schabau in the two Cups.
He needs to get into the race with a rating of 91 he will be way down the list a will need to win his way in.
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reductio ad absurdum
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djebel
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Posted: 03 Aug 2020 at 4:10pm |
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reductio ad absurdum
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cotto1
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Posted: 03 Aug 2020 at 5:19pm |
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Hi there mate:
Ty for posting that video.very interesting he seemed to like very elegant and what do you guys make of surprise baby maybe having 53.5 to 54.5 weights to carry.will should it be an issue.and will very elegant carry a bit of weight well. Ty guys.
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VOYAGER
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Posted: 03 Aug 2020 at 8:29pm |
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That is a very good explanation of how Carpenter structures his weight allotment, but it highlights the group of horses who are disadvantaged.
The new season Australian/NZ four year olds are still being weighted like the old days, and unfortunately while ever the outdated WFA scale is being used, as a foundation, it will stay that way. As I have stated before, any trainer who has a 3yo classic winner in Australia or New Zealand, needs to forget aiming at the cup, and aim at the Caulfield Cup due to the weight they get. If there is anyone here who thinks Warning, Quick Thinker and Russian Camelot should get the same or just under the weight of Surprise Baby and Master Of Wine, and still have a chance of winning, then they will need to tell me why. A handicap is supposed to offer horses a weight that allows them to win, but the classic winners from Australia and New Zealand are so disadvantaged that we will never see another classic winner win the cup as a four year old, and that is unfair. With the last decade of results, when you get the weights out in September just put the pen through any galloper who has above 55 kilos winning, because they are badly weighted against the non classic winning four year olds, and the northern hemisphere 3yo's. Is it was we should have had three northern hemisphere winners in the last four years with Il Paradiso last year extremely unlucky in the last 100m. The proof of what I am saying is that the horses with more than 55 kilos can run well, and get close to winning but that weight pull that the northern hemisphere 3yo's and the non classic winning four year olds get is too much. I do not see why you can manipulate the northern hemisphere three year olds foundation weight ( as explained in the video they went from a base of 51.5 to 52.5 kilos) and not do the same for other groups in an appropriate manner. |
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djebel
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Posted: 03 Aug 2020 at 9:27pm |
They will not get the same weights. Personally I think Russian Camelot could give all these horses 5 kgs and drag them around and beat them. What weight should Vow And Declare have to give Surprise Baby ? |
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reductio ad absurdum
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VOYAGER
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Posted: 04 Aug 2020 at 6:32pm |
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I think all villagers know my thoughts on the allowances for fillies and mares, in WFA, there for making the scale outdated, but to use WFA as a foundation for the weights is outdated.
Surprise Baby is a lightly raced 6yo. We all know his form. and I agree with the video, he will have to carry at least 54.5 kilos, that is whether the weights are raised or not. However every form analyst and I mean every form analyst, will tell you that the Australian classic form lines, are not strong staying form lines. What I am trying to communicate is that the weak pool of staying 3yo's is not being taken into account when the classic winners are given weight. Lets look at Verry Elleegant. Last year she was given 53.5 kilos. So because Carpenter is using that as a base, if we add the 1.5 kilos for the WFA (which again in my opinion is wrong), then she is automatically on 55 for this year. Then her form is now taken into consideration and she will get 57 kilos, and there is no chance in eternity she wins this race with 57 kilos. If she was given her correct weight last year, which should have been 51.5 or 52 at most, then she would be getting 55 or 55.5 kilos this year and that is a winnable weight. Back in the old days where the classic races including the ST Legers, were used as the guide for the new season four year olds, the weights were correct because the older stayers usually came through the same classic races previously, so if you had not improved in your four or five year old season, you were still being weighted on what you had done two seasons previous and you usually had to win a ballot free race, usually the Caulfield Cup or Lexus or get a penalty for winning the Moonee Valley Cup or the Geelong Cup to get the weight needed to make the big race. But these days the weights are so badly manipulated, that a horse who had run third in a cup, and who had won the Lexus and then had won the Geelong Cup ( Prince Of Arran) needs a gift from Carpenter through a higher penalty than he deserved for the win, to get in the field, when he should have received enough weight to be in the field four months earlier. Horses like Sherwood Forest, Collette, Quick Thinker, Warning and Miami Bound have got no chance in the Melbourne Cup as four year olds, that is why if you are a smart operator like Murray Baker ( Quick Thinker), you will aim your four year old at the Caulfield Cup, and if they win that then maybe go on and have a crack at the cup. Russian Camelot is the anomaly because he is a northern hemisphere 3yo (physically), but we have no form reference for NH 3yo's who have had a full classic prep in Australia so we need to see how this turns out. Personally I feel he needs to improve significantly on his form but his natural improvement will give him some of that improvement. I was always told that handicapping was supposed to give very horse their chance to win the race. As it stands as the weight allocation structure stands, the classic winning new season four year olds have no chance of competing on a even field when it comes to the weights allotted.
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VOYAGER
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Posted: 04 Aug 2020 at 6:35pm |
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I see that Godolphin will not have any international runners this spring. Charlie Appleby and Saeed Bin Suroor are not coming.
No Japanese are coming either, and I would assume that with the Victorian situation not to many will make the trip.
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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Jamal
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Posted: 04 Aug 2020 at 8:57pm |
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That came out wrong, apologies for that. See link below:
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Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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cotto1
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Posted: 11 Aug 2020 at 10:06am |
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Hi there guys:
I see they reckon collide will be running in the Caulfield cup and Melbourne cup double.they say he has already qualified and is very fit.interesting
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cotto1
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Posted: 11 Aug 2020 at 10:09am |
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Hi there guys:
And I think I heard Dashing Willoughby will be staying in Australia after the cup.
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oneonesit
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Posted: 11 Aug 2020 at 10:14am |
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Have they moved it to Sydney yet ?
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Refer ALP Election Promises
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oneonesit
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Posted: 11 Aug 2020 at 10:18am |
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Surely its about the race - its rich tradition & all. Doesn't matter if its in Sydney. Maybe we can swap it with the Gay Mardi Gras for a year down the track
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Refer ALP Election Promises
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Second Chance
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Posted: 11 Aug 2020 at 7:00pm |
Not to mention that the "ill-fated" Monsun lived until the age of 22.
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cotto1
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Posted: 12 Aug 2020 at 12:40pm |
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Hi there guys:
Did you see surprise baby is having a jockey change for the m cup. What do you guys think.
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cotto1
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Posted: 12 Aug 2020 at 12:41pm |
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1 of the big favourites for this year’s cup interesting.
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