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Second Chance 
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Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Online Points: 56831 |
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 Posted: 18 Jan 2016 at 10:36am |
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A lot more than 40? Guess we'll just have to agree to disagree.
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StormSiren
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Joined: 23 Jul 2015 Location: Canberra Status: Offline Points: 1810 |
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Posted: 18 Jan 2016 at 10:48am |
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Sepoy had 46 first year (MM B1, Premier, Easter 1) .. Foxwedge 49...
Hard to see him getting any more than those two... he's got some decent competition in the freshmen ranks, G1 performers from hot sire lines... Brazen Beau, Dissident, Wandjina, Hallowed Crown, Shooting To Win....
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Lost in the magical world of racing. Storm Siren, Sirens Star, Elpis & Wait For It.
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lotto7
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Joined: 14 Jan 2009 Status: Offline Points: 1138 |
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Posted: 20 Jan 2016 at 3:15pm |
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Did a little work on stallion returns for NSW studs on figures posted by the stud book early this week although these are not final.
Of the 8,704 mares served in NSW approximately 7,213 (83%) were served by stallions at the following Hunter Studs: Emirates 234 2.6% Yarraman 403 4.6% Darley 1,440 16.5% Vinery 659 7.57% Arrowfield 1,127 12.9% Coolmore 1,607 18.5% Widden 703 8% Newgate 1,040 11.9% The remaining 17% were picked up by Newhaven Park, Kooringal, Bowness, Kitchwin Hills and other smaller operators. Widden's covers are down from 1044 to 703 but included in the 1044 was 184 for Zoustar who stood in Victoria this season. No doubt the big mover is Newgate Farm which has been able to start from scratch as a newcomer in the stallion ranks a few years back to be very close to 3rd placed Arrowfield in terms of covers behind only Coolmore and Darley. This must have placed pressure on all the other operators in the Hunter Valley and there must be something about their business model that ticks a few boxes. The next few years could be very interesting. |
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furious
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Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Status: Online Points: 30978 |
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Posted: 20 Jan 2016 at 4:28pm |
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Newgate has young unproven stallions with enough pedigree and performance to entice mares in. But on the above Deep Field's numbers truly they are only thinking short term. Many breeders are going to be burned and will they come back because of that.
If one of the stallions fire they will get them back with the promise of better returns but if not they may have lost them forever.
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Biggles
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Joined: 30 Apr 2009 Status: Offline Points: 748 |
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Posted: 22 Jan 2016 at 11:46am |
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I was very disappointed to see how many mares Deep Field had covered. I feel the longevity of the horse will be compromised if they keep covering books like that. Unlike most of you I think he will be extremely popular next season and beyond. Although his book was supposed to be limited ( |
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Flying High
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Lordy
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Joined: 22 May 2010 Location: Sunshine State Status: Offline Points: 13887 |
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Posted: 22 Jan 2016 at 2:07pm |
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Newgate's stallion roster:
Deep Field Dissident Eurozone Foxwedge Sizzling The Factor Wandjina Cumulative stud record of all the above: 11 runners. 1 winner. $93,825 (all Foxwedge) Easily the "swing and hope" capital of the Hunter Valley. Clearly leveraging off the current fad of using untried hype stallions. Very interesting to see how this roster looks in a few years time. |
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bradjm
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Joined: 13 Mar 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 6175 |
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Posted: 22 Jan 2016 at 3:37pm |
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I prefer fighting sun to the two brothers
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Biggles
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Posted: 23 Jan 2016 at 10:07am |
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It's pretty hard to start off a new venture with successful proven stallions! Let's face it, where are they going to get them? I think they have done a very good job in sourcing such a diverse batch of young horses with something for everyone. Those horses wouldn't have been easy to get hold of as plenty of other more established studs would have had their eye on them as well. You have to give credit to Henry and the team as they must be really on the ball. Of course they are out there trying to pick up stallions that are going to appeal to commercial breeders as well as breed to race. They are obviously out there to make money and why wouldn't they? they have put plenty in and would need to be getting some back in a hurry. As a relatively small but commercial breeder I need the type of horses that they stand, because much as I would love to delve into pedigrees and just breed to what looks good on paper I would soon go broke. I try to go to reasonably priced proven horses but most of them are way out of my price range, That's why I have supported the likes of Northern Meteor, Smart Missile, Foxwedge and Deep Field. These are horses that to my way of thinking don't have too much in the way of downside and it's a chance I have to take to stay in business. I do support these horses each year so although we all know now how great Northern Meteor was, I will be in a bit of trouble if the others fail. What a pity I didn't have my crystal ball out when I am Invincible went to stud!
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Flying High
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Sworn Revenge
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Joined: 24 Jul 2014 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1210 |
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Posted: 23 Jan 2016 at 10:12am |
Agreed 
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ianb
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Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Queensland Status: Offline Points: 1311 |
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Posted: 23 Jan 2016 at 1:39pm |
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Biggles well written....I find it hard to believe that others see the need to run the rule through a studs stallions, particularly when the horses they stand are young, unproven and will remain that way for 3 years. Bare in mind Foxwedge ONLY has 2yo stock, Eurozone has weanlings, Sizzling has weanlings, The Factor has weanlings and 2yo stock in America and the rest have only foetus's in the mares.
Lordy and Sworn Revenge I thought you blokes were smarter than that.... |
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furious
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Posted: 23 Jan 2016 at 2:44pm |
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I don't think anyone is suggesting that all these stallions will fail. They all have appeal but if breeding for the sale you will need a very good mare with 200 others against you. It could be they will all fly. The Foxwedge's have commenced winning about the time they should have. But the size of crops is what this discussion is about I think.
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Second Chance
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Posted: 23 Jan 2016 at 2:46pm |
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Precisely.
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Biggles
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Posted: 23 Jan 2016 at 5:10pm |
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I think we all agree that the huge books these stallions cover makes it more difficult to compete in the sale ring. We have no control over that and we don't know until the stud book returns come out what we are dealing with. It is not essential to buy expensive mares, but you have to do your homework. Yearlings out of old mares are really hard to sell, so you need young mares from the best family you can afford and they must throw good types. There are mares to be found for $3-$10k, you just have to keep looking. The yearlings must be presented well at the sale. I don't believe all the harping on about how small breeders are overlooked at the sales. If you take a stunning type that is well presented the word will get around, no matter who you are. If you can't do a good job yourself, spend a bit of money and get someone else to do it. The other thing is you have to rear them well. It's no good sending someone a backward small yearling and expecting them to work miracles in a few weeks. You also have to take your rose coloured glasses off when the sales companies come round for inspections, because if they think it hasn't been well reared it will be the first one they knock out, especially if it is small.
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Sworn Revenge
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Joined: 24 Jul 2014 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1210 |
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Posted: 23 Jan 2016 at 5:38pm |
I'll concede Ianb that you have a very valid point re the youth of the operation and the roster itself. I'll also confirm that I was never as smart as you thought I was! 
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Second Chance
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Posted: 23 Jan 2016 at 5:39pm |
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Agree with virtually everthing you say Biggles.
But just a further tip for the smaller breeder imo - nominate your yearling c/- a professional, well-respected sales preparation crew as agent. And furthermore preferably have it inspected at that their property. Because I still firmly believe that small breeders are considerably disadvantaged if they nominate yearlings under their own name or via smaller sales preparation outfits - both from sales acceptance/non-acceptance perspective (which is a critical hurdle) or lack of exposure/through traffic pre-sale. Over to others. |
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Beliskner
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Joined: 10 Apr 2015 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 4236 |
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Posted: 23 Jan 2016 at 5:40pm |
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Am i right in stating proven stallions rarely get sold until towards the end of their careers?
Like a proven stallion, even say one that stands for 10k-20k in it's prime age just don't get sold? |
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Lordy
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Joined: 22 May 2010 Location: Sunshine State Status: Offline Points: 13887 |
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Posted: 23 Jan 2016 at 9:38pm |
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I understand a new stud taking a punt on these unproven stallions. They pretty much have to. The thing with Newgate is they haven't procured 2 or 3 freshmen and gradually built up a reputation for results. They have gone and invested millions in a roster of 7 stallions before any have thrown a winner. Is there any precedent for this type of approach?
I'd have thought if they were throwing that kind of money around they could have purchase an established stallion or shuttled a European with some runs on the board. Their approach may prove to be a master stroke however the risks are extremely high. Only time will tell. FTR I'd back Foxwedge and Wandjina in particular to be very good stallions.
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Lordy
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Posted: 23 Jan 2016 at 9:41pm |
Can often be the case. Darley have been known to offload younger stallions after a few seasons if they don't meet their lofty expectations. You get ones like Nadeem who's record is quite solid but they shipped him of to NZ.
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Biggles
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Posted: 24 Jan 2016 at 10:04am |
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What sort of a book of mares would Nadeem have received if say Newgate had purchased him to stand at stud? For that matter if any stud get's rid of a stallion it's because they just know they are not going to make it. Occasionally one will throw something that was in the pipeline when the stallion was moved on, but not very often. Newgate would be committing commercial suicide if they took on something like that. On the other hand I wouldn't be surprised if they did source a young horse from Europe or America that has made a good start with runners and shuttle him. It would make sense as it would mean they would only have to pay for breeding rights rather than buy the horse outright. If a horse like Zoffany that wasn't owned by one of the big guns came along they would be on to it straight away. They don't miss much!
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Flying High
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whitt0
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Joined: 01 Jun 2014 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 10911 |
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Posted: 24 Jan 2016 at 11:19am |
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Biggles - that horse I expect will be The Factor
Producing excellent types in the North and they will go early and be quick. What level they get to we will have to see. But has the credentials to be a big surprise packet |
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Lordy
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Posted: 24 Jan 2016 at 6:05pm |
I mentioned Nadeem as a young stallion that was moved on before he'd had much opportunity. If we want to be specific about him then we should look at his stud record. 191 runners for 122 winners, 12 Stakes winners and more than $12m in prize money. Hardly a disgrace. You don't need to wait till a stud wants to sell before approaching them anyway. The big studs would happily consider offers for the mid level stallions to make way for new ones. You don't know if you don't look. Filling a relatively large and expensive roster with unproven horses will see good returns in the immediate term. Thats what the market wants right now. Longer term what happens if they don't cut it? Imagine ending up with a roster full of stallions like Wanted, All American, Gods Own, Haradasun etc. I'm not saying Newgate is doomed to fail. Only that it's a very high risk strategy to go so hard so early on unproven sires.
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Beliskner
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Posted: 24 Jan 2016 at 6:23pm |
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Law of averages would suggest they'll get a couple of decent ones, would be pretty unlucky if they all were busts.
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Second Chance
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Posted: 24 Jan 2016 at 6:52pm |
Bump.
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Gee Gee
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Posted: 24 Jan 2016 at 8:09pm |
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How long till Darley move Sepoy on?
Elusive Qualitys best were only close relations to Sepoy. Thats it. |
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Lordy
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Posted: 24 Jan 2016 at 8:16pm |
That is true of EQ in this country. Different story in the US where he's one of the best. Maybe Sepoy's family holds the key to drawing out his best in our conditions. If thats the case then Sepoy could be a star at stud. One thing is certain. Bidding on his stock at the recent sales was far more subdued than last year.
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whitt0
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Posted: 24 Jan 2016 at 9:11pm |
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Just about 50% fall in price from this year to last year for his yearlings......
Skilled moves ahead of him & he is now 0 from 9
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furious
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Posted: 25 Jan 2016 at 9:18am |
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Skilled actually got a winner yesterday.
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Second Chance
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Posted: 25 Jan 2016 at 10:39am |
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Yes Furious, Skilled's had two starters for yesterday's Hobart debut 2yo winner along with Cayman Dayze that's had one start for a 3rd at Morphettville.
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furious
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Posted: 25 Jan 2016 at 11:50am |
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Look all the above in interesting but we really do not know where the next good mare of stallion will come from. Even the best of bloodlines fail with the best stallions!
Just looking up an imported English mare called Encens. Great Grandaughter of Noblesse. Bought for stud for $305K. Her first two foalings in England produced two stakesplaced by Sadler's Wells. Then she had nine foals in Australia by Sadler's Wells, Danehill, Black Minnaloushe, Montjeu, Redoute's Choice, Darci Brahma, Canny Lad, Shellscrape and Arena. Now for the breeder of these foals you'd say she was a success afterall her figures for her foals include $3,700,000/$260,000/$260,000/$600,000/$110,000/$1,300,000/$430,000/$36,000/$125,000. Triumph. But after those two stakes placed in England the rest won just over $32,000. So was that just our lack of staying races? It seems even the big boys with lots of money to spend just don't know what works in Australia. People say this or that is a hit and miss family. But is it really a stamina family which produces a horse with enough speed to cope with our shorter races. The above mare had a lovely pedigree. Outcross to Danehill etc. Plenty of blood which had worked here. Must of thrown a lovely type. But no joy on the racetrack.
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Red Hare
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Posted: 31 Mar 2016 at 1:26pm |
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Inglis Broodmare catalogue lists 27 mares in foal to Deep Field.
It will be interesting to see how many times this first crop is turned over. Broodmares in foal, weanlings, yearlings, R2R 2yo... some might be weary travelers before they hit the track.
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) obviously they just can't say no when people either beg for a nom or get nasty when they are told the horse is full. Another horse I really like, Smart Missile has had large books in his first three seasons, so I get the impression that popular Australian stallions are being given more long term support than most of the shuttle horses.
Lordy wrote:|
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