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Zabeel retired

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Gay3 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2016 at 2:04pm
"Damn internal server error when I try and paste pedigree."

If you were trying to Print Screen, it doesn't take it Angry
Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
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.Swynford. View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote .Swynford. Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2016 at 5:22pm
Yes great pedigree Nostra and great horses as well.    This is how I would analyse the pedigree of Good Lord and it is almost the same thing with the Zabeel / Vice Regal cross which I will also explain.

 

It is only a belief but comes from years of studying pedigrees and successful planned matings.

I always start with the 1st dam and believe she has the most influence in the mating, She only has one chance per year to spread her genes against the stallions 100 or more.

Rather than working vertically across the pedigree in generations looking for duplications I would use her male line (as I believe she has a bias this way, eg,  throws to her opposite sex,  ) and I would use this male line to create duplications in the stallion.  

Looking at the pedigree of Good Lord and believing that the stallion will also have a bias or throw to his opposite sex run a line up the first dams male line and you will see as Nostra pointed out that Gainsborough has been duplicated in the stallion, If Zamazaan throws to his female side and Pherozshah does the same we hit Gainsborough so much like trying to catch a fish we are right on the money here. This same pattern is seen in Winx, Pierro, Ocean Park, Snow Fairy and many others. 

Having Gainsborough on the male line of the first four dams in this mares pedigree would only increase the probability of the mating.

Also on the male line of the first two dams in Good Lord's pedigree is Hyperion.  Again to me this is  a 'Hot Position" and I like to see this duplicated using the bias thing in the stallion. And as we can see this has been done through Exbury. If Exbury  has a bias to his female side his brood-mare sire is none other than Mossborough, from the same female family as Hyperion. 

The pedigree now has a mirror image of line breeding patterns.

Lower down in the pedigree the 5th dam Filial traces in male line to Son-in-Law  (who I have moved forward in the tree) and appears as a brood-mare sire in the femalel line of Exbury.  

And possibly the most powerful line breeding pattern in the pedigree of Good Lord is the duplication of Zamazaan's own female line.  I have moved Stop Her forward in the pedigree as it would have been off screen but I think like the Zabeel/ Vice Regal connection it is an important part to the mating.




  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Nostradamus II Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2016 at 5:59pm
Originally posted by Gay3 Gay3 wrote:

"Damn internal server error when I try and paste pedigree."

If you were trying to Print Screen, it doesn't take it Angry

No just trying to paste Tesio Power pedigree that i have done successfully a few times before 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote .Swynford. Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2016 at 6:17pm
Its never easy to explain pedigree analysis but to simplify things,  this filly only cost $10,000 but has won about One and a Half Million 

Same theory as above , ask the question? where are the duplications in the mare ? where are the duplications in the stallion ?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote .Swynford. Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2016 at 6:42pm
so getting back to the Zabeel/Vice Regal success, 1 Group One winner to every 8 named foals 

We would all love results like that, but the only way we get  answers is to ask questions 

was it because 

they both lived in Cambridge ? 
were Vice Regal mares the perfect match for Zabeel physically ?
were the dams of these Group One winners   Group One winners themselves?

Whenmated with Zabeel,  Vice Regal mares out performed Danehill mares by at least by five times. this should not have happened.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pardon_My_Dust Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2016 at 8:39pm
Wow great summary mate and the proof is in the pudding as they say, one Group 1 winner for every 8 horses is an amazing record.

Danehill himself was an amazing sire but Zabeel's ability to produce horses that could sustain a long sprint made him my fave.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote .Swynford. Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2016 at 9:36pm
one would think Danehill mares with Zabeel was the ultimate match. but 1 in 40    or 1 in 128 without Danelagh.  not good when you are paying $100 K

Zabeel /Vice Regal  yes  it's incredibile statistics.....1 Group one winner in every 8 named foals has happened before and can't see why we can't do it again
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Red Hare Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2016 at 11:07pm
Is there something in Vice Regal and Pieces of Eight being sons/grandsons of Relic, or is that just 'noise'?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Beliskner Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2016 at 11:17pm
What would've diluted the Zabeel/Danehill cross would've been two parts, first off it was done in enough number that it would've weakened the average, and second off probably a lot of Danehill mares were sent to him without considering the rest of the pedigree.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Mr Prospector Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jun 2016 at 12:06am
Octagonal wasn't considered a good stallion , but his best son Lonhro carries Le Filou through Shadea as does Nielo . Interestingly Star Of Octagonal another Octagonal stakes winner has Vice Regal in the dam side also .
Do these horses like Lonhro fit your pattern Swynford ? .
Would a Zabeel mare work to Show A Heart (who carries Vice Regal ), in a reverse of the pattern of Zabeel over Vice Regal I wonder  ? 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Nostradamus II Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jun 2016 at 1:06pm
Manhattan Street just won her first start in a 2yo event at Otaki

Manhattan Street (2013) - M - 8 
by Manhattan Rain out of Charming Estelle by Redoute's Choice to 6 generations
Manhattan Rain
2006
Encosta De Lago
1993
Fairy King
1982
Northern Dancer
1961
Nearctic
1954
Nearco
Lady Angela
1935 - 4-r
1944 - 14-c
Natalma
1957
Native Dancer
Almahmoud
1950 - 5-f
1947 - 2-d
Fairy Bridge
1975
Bold Reason
1968
Hail To Reason
Lalun
1958 - 4-n
1952 - 19-b
Special
1969
Forli
Thong
1963 - 3-b
1964 - 5-h
Shoal Creek
1988
Star Way
1977
Star Appeal
1970
Appiani
Sterna
1963 - 4-f
1960 - 5-d
New Way
1970
Klairon
New Move
1952 - 1-w
1958 - 6-e
Rolls
1984
Mr Prospector
1970
Raise A Native
Gold Digger
1961 - 8-f
1962 - 13-c
Grand Luxe
1974
Sir Ivor
Fanfreluche
1965 - 8-g
1967 - 4-g
Shantha's Choice
1992
Canny Lad
1987
Bletchingly
1970
Biscay
1965
Star Kingdom
Magic Symbol
1946 - 1-g
1956 - 2-o
Coogee
1959
Relic
Last Judgement
1945 - 8-f
1948 - 7-a
Jesmond Lass
1975
Lunchtime
1970
Silly Season
Great Occasion
1962 - 1-g
1965 - 7-f
Beautiful Dreamer
1967
Coeur Volant
Adina Rose
1957 - 9-c
1960 - 14
Dancing Show
1983
Nijinsky II
1967
Northern Dancer
1961
Nearctic
Natalma
1954 - 14-c
1957 - 2-d
Flaming Page
1959
Bull Page
Flaring Top
1947 - 4-m
1947 - 8-f
Show Lady
1976
Sir Ivor
1965
Sir Gaylord
Attica
1959 - 2-s
1953 - 8-g
Best In Show
1965
Traffic Judge
Stolen Hour
1952 - 3-n
1953 - 8-f
Charming Estelle
2008
Redoute's Choice
1996
Danehill
1986
Danzig
1977
Northern Dancer
1961
Nearctic
Natalma
1954 - 14-c
1957 - 2-d
Pas De Nom
1968
Admiral's Voyage
Petitioner
1959 - 4-n
1952 - 7-a
Razyana
1981
His Majesty
1968
Ribot
Flower Bowl
1952 - 4-l
1952 - 4-d
Spring Adieu
1974
Buckpasser
Natalma
1963 - 1-x
1957 - 2-d
Shantha's Choice
1992
Canny Lad
1987
Bletchingly
1970
Biscay
Coogee
1965 - 2-o
1959 - 7-a
Jesmond Lass
1975
Lunchtime
Beautiful Dreamer
1970 - 7-f
1967 - 14
Dancing Show
1983
Nijinsky II
1967
Northern Dancer
Flaming Page
1961 - 2-d
1959 - 8-f
Show Lady
1976
Sir Ivor
Best In Show
1965 - 8-g
1965 - 8-f
Estelle Collection
2003
Stravinsky
1996
Nureyev
1977
Northern Dancer
1961
Nearctic
Natalma
1954 - 14-c
1957 - 2-d
Special
1969
Forli
Thong
1963 - 3-b
1964 - 5-h
Fire The Groom
1987
Blushing Groom
1974
Red God
Runaway Bride
1954 - 8-c
1962 - 22-d
Prospector's Fire
1976
Mr Prospector
Native Street
1970 - 13-c
1963 - 3-d
Ana Zeel
1995
Zabeel
1986
Sir Tristram
1971
Sir Ivor
Isolt
1965 - 8-g
1961 - 6-e
Lady Giselle
1982
Nureyev
Valderna
1977 - 5-h
1972 - 16-c
My Tricia
1974
Hermes
1963
Aureole
Ark Royal (11)
1950 - 2-f
1952 - 11-d
Gay Poss
1966
Le Filou
Sweet Time
1946 - 16-c
1960 - 8
TesioPower
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Nostradamus II Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jun 2016 at 1:10pm
Interested in Swynford's comments on this pedigree. According to RISA, 9 starters on the cross for 2 winners including this filly. 

Sophia Magia (2013) - F - 4-c 
by Per Incanto out of Heloise by Towkay to 6 generations
Per Incanto
2004
Street Cry
1998
Machiavellian
1987
Mr Prospector
1970
Raise A Native
1961
Native Dancer
Raise You
1950 - 5-f
1946 - 8-f
Gold Digger
1962
Nashua
Sequence
1952 - 3-m
1946 - 13-c
Coup De Folie
1982
Halo
1969
Hail To Reason
Cosmah
1958 - 4-n
1953 - 2-d
Raise The Standard
1978
Hoist The Flag
Natalma
1968 - 5-i
1957 - 2-d
Helen Street
1982
Troy
1976
Petingo
1965
Petition
Alcazar
1944 - 16-h
1957 - 22
La Milo
1963
Hornbeam
Pin Prick
1953 - 1-p
1955 - 1-b
Waterway
1976
Riverman
1969
Never Bend
River Lady
1960 - 19-b
1963 - 10-a
Boulevard
1968
Pall Mall
Costa Sola
1955 - 7-d
1963 - 1-l
Pappa Reale
1993
Indian Ridge
1985
Ahonoora
1975
Lorenzaccio
1965
Klairon
Phoenissa
1952 - 1-w
1951 - 5-h
Helen Nichols
1966
Martial
Quaker Girl
1957 - 2-d
1961 - 1-m
Hillbrow
1975
Swing Easy
1968
Delta Judge
Free Flowing
1960 - 12-c
1958 - 4-n
Golden City
1970
Skymaster
West Shaw
1958 - 2-d
1960 - 3-e
Daffodil Fields
1985
Try My Best
1975
Northern Dancer
1961
Nearctic
Natalma
1954 - 14-c
1957 - 2-d
Sex Appeal
1970
Buckpasser
Best In Show
1963 - 1-x
1965 - 8-f
Water Frolic
1975
Sir Ivor
1965
Sir Gaylord
Attica
1959 - 2-s
1953 - 8-g
Waterloo
1969
Bold Lad
Lakewoods
1964 - 2-d
1958 - 1-u
Heloise
2000
Towkay
1994
Last Tycoon
1983
Try My Best
1975
Northern Dancer
1961
Nearctic
Natalma
1954 - 14-c
1957 - 2-d
Sex Appeal
1970
Buckpasser
Best In Show
1963 - 1-x
1965 - 8-f
Mill Princess
1977
Mill Reef
1968
Never Bend
Milan Mill
1960 - 19-b
1962 - 22-d
Irish Lass
1962
Sayajirao
Scollata
1944 - 3-n
1952 - 8-c
Princess Tracy
1981
Ahonoora
1975
Lorenzaccio
1965
Klairon
Phoenissa
1952 - 1-w
1951 - 5-h
Helen Nichols
1966
Martial
Quaker Girl
1957 - 2-d
1961 - 1-m
Princess Ru
1962
Princely Gift
1951
Nasrullah
Blue Gem
1940 - 9-c
1943 - 13-a
Chiru
1948
Big Game
Tibet
1939 - 6-e
1940 - 8-c
Dew Lea
1978
Makor
1966
Herbager
1956
Vandale
1943
Plassy
Vanille
1932 - 13-e
1929 - 3-c
Flagette
1951
Escamillo
Fidgette
1939 - 14-a
1939 - 16-c
Amri-An
1958
Ambiorix
1946
Tourbillon
Lavendula II
1928 - 13-c
1930 - 1-w
Banri An Oir
1950
Royal Charger
Golden Penny
1942 - 9-c
1937 - 1-p
Misty Valley
1970
Crown Lease
1964
Princely Gift
1951
Nasrullah
Blue Gem
1940 - 9-c
1943 - 13-a
Lavant
1955
Le Lavandou
Firle
1944 - 4-p
1938 - B3
Deodar
1948
Defaulter
1935
Defoe
Expense
1926 - 3-d
1924 - 4-c
Gold Branch
1939
Guarantee
Privet
1930 - NZ
1925 - 4-c
TesioPower
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote .Swynford. Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jun 2016 at 4:29pm
To answer Gay's original question first, 'why was the Zabeel / Vice Regal cross so good ? ' 

there are two ways to look at pedigrees, in the example below we look vertically across the screen and see the duplications in each generation.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote .Swynford. Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jun 2016 at 4:52pm
using the bias theory explained above the first place I look is the male line of the 1st dam.  And ask the question has this been duplicated in the stallion some how? ,  At first glance we see nothing but when the pedigree is extended further Man O War on Vice Regal's male line appears as the brood-mare sire in the female line of Sir Ivor. If Sir Ivor throws to his female side then to my mind we hit the jackpot again,

I have moved Man O War forward in Sir Ivor's female line.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote .Swynford. Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jun 2016 at 5:14pm
An interesting discovery when applying the theory to the horse that ran 2nd to Jezabeel in that Melbourne Cup, Champagne, also by the stallion Zabeel was that the line breeding pattern is in an identical position.


Horses like these two with similar structured pedigrees helped me formulate the principle that using the maleline of the mare we can breed back to any stallion from the past.

Mares from the Man O War maleline are quite rare

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote brogers Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jun 2016 at 4:48am
Originally posted by .Swynford. .Swynford. wrote:

Byron    I think if you read my post a again it says     "other champions from the #16 family, eg Bahram, Sir Gallahad III, Bull Dog, Dastur, Bois Roussel and a real hottie Reliance


You misunderstood my point

Zabeel traces to Miss Agnes (1850) through her daughter Little Agnes, the start of the 16-c branch.

Bahram traces to Miss Agnes via Frivolity to 16-a
Sir Gallahad, Bull Dog and Bois Roussel trace to Miss Agnes via Frivolity to 16-a
Reliance traces to Miss Agnes via her daughter Polly Agnes through Ornament, the start of the 16-h branch.

Here is the problem. I have sequenced the mtDNA of 16 horses tracing to Miss Agnes in different branches and this family has the same mitochondrial haplotype L3a1b as the 1-u branch (which is not from family #1 and the error in 1-u is at or after Whinbloom 1901 by Galeazzo) as well as the same mtDNA halplotype as 8a, 8c, 8d and 8h.

So, if you are going to claim that Zabeel liked some "magic beans" from the #16 family for success, then you should also include members of the 1-u, 8a, 8c, 8d, and 8h branches also as there is no difference in mtDNA between these horses. You could also include 7, 7a,7f,17b,22,22,222b and 22d as they are the same except for one mtDNA variation (they are haplotype L3a1a).
Abel Tasman...Keen Ice...Divisidero....Verrazano...Catchy...Carrick...Ivictory...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote .Swynford. Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jun 2016 at 6:47pm
the words I used was not   'magic beans'  and I will include who I like ...  As I stated it was   Sir Gallahad III, Bull Dog, Dastur, Bois Roussel, and a real hottie Reliance.  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote .Swynford. Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jun 2016 at 7:23pm
so going back to answering Gay's question, why was the Zabeel Vice Regal cross so good.?  Firstly I think the duplication of Man O War was very important, it is right on the male line of the mare and appears in a brood-mare sire position (not in the stallion which I prefer) but in this case his grand sire Sir Ivor.  same pattern appears in Zabeels's best Octagonal.

Secondly it is the appearance of Le Filou in Vice Regal mares.   Zabeel is from the same female family as Le Filou      His 6th dam is none other than Le Filou's 3rd dam
And this is where Byron could help. Its to do with the Mitochondrial DNA .  I truely believe that the females have the ability to throw their genetics forward in a pedigree so many generations.
So when looking at Zabeel, I think his bottom line or female family was his greatest asset, He was a miler yet like Le Filou sired Derby, Cups and staying horses. From memory he sired the first three home in a Caulfield Cup. Very rare.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jun 2016 at 8:12pm
Thanks Swynford, this has turned in to a super informative thread Tongue
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote .Swynford. Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jun 2016 at 8:52pm
My pleasure Gay and I hope this continues,  my next question with the Zabeel/ Vice Regal cross was   "  "is there a common pattern within these Vice Regal mares ? "      



And looking at Jezabeels pedigree we see the appearance of the stallion Imperialist, a failure at stud but who's 3rd dam is none other than Round Table's dam, This gives the structure of the pedigree a great mirror image of line breeding patterns to females using the bias principle explained above
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote .Swynford. Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jun 2016 at 9:28pm
Maybe better explained this way

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote brogers Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jun 2016 at 1:42pm
If you are specifically talking about mitochondrial DNA then it isnt possible for Zabeel to pass it on. He gets in from his dam, but it only travels via the female so in the case of Jezabeel, her haplotype (presuming there isnt a deep rooted error which is a distinct possibility) is I2a2a. This is the same haplotype as DNA samples from 2-a, 12 ('trunk'), 16, 19-c, 20, 20-a, 20-c, 20-d.

As currently constructed, the most recent common ancestor of Family 20 is a 1751 grey CADE MARE;. However, there is reason to believe that the 1775 ECLIPSE MARE is misplaced as her daughter. The line from this Eclipse mare represents about 10% of today's family 20. Three different mtDNA haplotypes have been found in samples from the 'trunk' of 20 and one of them is also found in branches 20-a, 20-c, and 20-d. The family isn’t as accurate as pedigree records would lead you to believe.


Abel Tasman...Keen Ice...Divisidero....Verrazano...Catchy...Carrick...Ivictory...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Ticino Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Jun 2016 at 8:09pm
Hello,
maybe I Point out Herbager belongs to the same damline as Zabeel/Le Filou.
he is the sire of Appiani (bred in Italy, stood in Germany) and Grandsire of Star Appeal (sent to Aus/NZ), btw traces via Son-in-Law to Dark Ronald. Herbager i9s the sire of Dike, Big Spruce (Silvano), Grey Dawn, Sea Hawk to ame a few. Herbager is sire of the important broodmares I will follow (Rainbow Quest)´Hevea (Busaca/Saraca), Ballade (Rahy/Singspiel) and Waitotara (succesful broodmare in Germany)
 
During the 1940' the Schlenderhan Stud (Germany) bred Espace Vital (by Oleander) and he is from the same damline (Spacieuse) as abovementioned Sires. After WWII he end up in Chile, where he became a succesful Sire.  Just 2 years ago a 2 year old colt turned out a very good racehorse after his first starts, but meet with an accident. After more than a year lay off, he  could recently start again as
4 year old and was listedplaced in France. His name is Palang (Hat Trick, bred in the US) in his damline at first American and later Chilean you will see Espace Vital. So he will return home after 70 years in Exile.
 
regards, Ticino
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote brogers Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jun 2016 at 6:34am
Originally posted by .Swynford. .Swynford. wrote:

I truely believe that the females have the ability to throw their genetics forward in a pedigree so many generations.

So this is where I find difficultly with a lot that is said on the forum, not specifically by you Swynford, but in general. We live in a society now which is rich in data and a good understanding of genetic inheritance, and one should prove and disprove thoughts and theories using science.

Just saying that you believe something to be occurring, doesn't mean that you can wrap a story around it and make it so. This was the way that Marianna Haun started the garbage of the X-Factor. She not only fell for the "Since event Y followed event X, event Y must have been caused by event X" fallacy, but she neatly packaged it in the mystery of a sacred feminine in Pocahontas and a revered horse in Secretariat. The science behind it was junk (the QRS Heart Score failed reproducibility and was subsequently proven to be not linked to athletic performance in Thoroughbreds) and she never proved any real genetic link of heart size through genome wide association studies or the like. She just wrote it, made it believable and then it became so (and led hundreds of breeders astray in the meantime). 

The statement that 'females have the ability to throw their genetics forward in a pedigree so many generations' is another that falls into the category of failing to prove. Belief isn't fact. 

Firstly, why females? What makes them special?

The nuclear DNA a racehorse gets from each parent recombines each generation and 'on average' a horse will get 50% of its nuclear DNA from each of its parents. That is an average, some might get more from one and less from the other, and we find with good stallions for example that they tend to have their foals with a little more of their DNA on average as it doesn't recombine as much. 

The only reason females would "throw their genetics forward" and not males would require something to occur on the X-Chromosome, but then if that is the case why would Hades, bred on the same cross as Jezabeel be a good horse also as he wouldn't get Zabeel's X-Chromosome being a male?

If we are specifically looking at the Zabeel - Vice Regal cross then it has to be put in the context of what is possible. It is plausible that Zabeel and Vice Regal shared similar genetic haplotypes, that is there were a cluster of tightly-linked genes on a chromosome that are likely to be inherited together and survive recombination. This haplotype wouldn't necessarily be related to a female, it could have come from anyone in its ancestry. That said, if it were the case, and it would need to be proven, then two things need to happen in order for it to make sense.

1) The daughter of Vice Regal needed to receive this haplotype without recombining, not all of them would have got it that way so they would be in effect Vice Regal mares in name only. 
2) In the mating with Zabeel, both Zabeel and the Vice Regal mare would have to pass this (presumably performance related) haplotype on to the foal.

Where this type of explanation falls down is when you look at another nick in Galileo with Danehill mares. 180 runners for 38 stakes winners (21%) is unreal and if you follow the logic above then it fits that not every Danehill mare would get the haplotype from Danehill and not every mating between Galileo and Danehill mares would result in a superior runner. All good right?

Why hasn't Black Sam Bellamy, Galileo's brother sired a good horse out if a Danehill mare? Or why hasn't Galileo got a good one out of an Eagle Eyed mare? Did Eagle Eyed and/or Black Sam Bellamy not receive this genetic haplotype? If so, why not? 

If there is a genetic haplotype for performance that defies recombination, it doesn't mean that you can leap to a single ancestor in a page and suggest that they are the source of it. Again...."Since event Y followed event X, event Y must have been caused by event X". We don't know at this point but saying "females have the ability to throw their genetics forward" is just not correct. 

It would also help to understand that if we talk about "Speed" as a heritable trait, most genetic studies put the heritability of this at h2=0.3 or 30%. What this means is that its heritability diminishes on average at 50% each generation so the potential influence of each parent on this trait is 0.15, or 15%, each grandparent is 0.075 or 7.5% and so on. The genealogical distance makes the percentages move towards zero twice as fast if heritability of the measured trait is 0.50 and three times as fast if heritability is at 0.33. Names in a pedigree beyond four generations are just names as recombination of the DNA in each generation means that their influence in real terms is miniscule.

Abel Tasman...Keen Ice...Divisidero....Verrazano...Catchy...Carrick...Ivictory...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote .Swynford. Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Jun 2016 at 5:11pm
Byron, we all have belief's which we are entitled to and in this game they don't need to be proved by science. They just need to work for you. Its the wining post that counts

I have used this 'theory or principle  " just with one client and helped create horses that have won 9 Group One races, close to Six Million in prize money, placings in the Melbourne Cup, Caulfied Cup and Cox Plate.  And with a better strike rate  than  1 in 8 Group One winners.  

Buying the top priced and most athletic looking yearling from the Yearling sales for millions of dollars expecting it to win Group One races is nothing but a belief or principle.  It may work for some but I still haven't seen figures like 1 in 8 Group One winners yet.

Spending $100 k on a service fee most would expect a Group One performer. I certainly would. That was Zabeel's service fee.  Yet only 1 in 30 odd of his foals achieved that. Maybe a bit like the X Factor thing. 

Looking at the mares that crossed with Zabeel my conclusions are that one needs to do more than spend 100 K and just send any mare to him to get a good result.  (or get your monies worth )  he didn't cross with Danehill mares, a champion brood-mare sire, he didn't cross with Centaine mares, another champion brood-mare sire, 

His best cross by a country mile or ( furlong) was mares by a stallion that reinforced or duplicated his female line. 





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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote John H Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Jun 2016 at 5:19pm
I don't pretend to fully understand where either Swynford or Byron are coming from on this, although interested in the thread of course.

A question for Byron first.

If, say, I wanted to look at the Savabeel - Vice Regal cross on TrueNicks, I would most likely be directed to the Zabeel or sons of Zabeel - Vice Regal cross, which I can understand given the S-VR cross probably has insufficient numbers. And so, I did, and the rating was A++.

Savabeel has not yet sired a SW from a VR mare, the rating seems to rely mainly on the successful Z-VR cross. Is this not the same Y follows X scenario you criticise others of?

Your last para is a a bit of a cut & paste, but on the other site the h2 thing starts by saying "if" not "most genetic studies"

A question for Swynford.

I have 4 b'mares. I look at the pedigree of their sires, g'sires etc & it appears to me that the possibilities to mate to your criteria are endless.

Do you have general population stats for your ideas?

Thanks in advance, with due respect both.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote .Swynford. Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Jun 2016 at 5:48pm
affirming my   "theory, principle, hunch, guess if you like ) was his strike rate with Carnegie mares, 3 or 4 times better than his own average, which also duplicated or reinforced his female line  



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote .Swynford. Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Jun 2016 at 6:02pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote .Swynford. Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Jun 2016 at 6:05pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sir Gov Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Jun 2016 at 6:22pm
Originally posted by John H John H wrote:

I don't pretend to fully understand where either Swynford or Byron are coming from on this, although interested in the thread of course.

A question for Byron first.

If, say, I wanted to look at the Savabeel - Vice Regal cross on TrueNicks, I would most likely be directed to the Zabeel or sons of Zabeel - Vice Regal cross, which I can understand given the S-VR cross probably has insufficient numbers. And so, I did, and the rating was A++.

Savabeel has not yet sired a SW from a VR mare, the rating seems to rely mainly on the successful Z-VR cross. Is this not the same Y follows X scenario you criticise others of?

Your last para is a a bit of a cut & paste, but on the other site the h2 thing starts by saying "if" not "most genetic studies"

A question for Swynford.

I have 4 b'mares. I look at the pedigree of their sires, g'sires etc & it appears to me that the possibilities to mate to your criteria are endless.

Do you have general population stats for your ideas?

Thanks in advance, with due respect both.


Good luck to Swynford & if it works for him/her then all the best.

However delving back 6 gens & using that as the reason for a particular performed horses is s t r e t c h i n g it IMO.


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