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3blindmice View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Mar 2018 at 11:04am
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by TIGER TIGER wrote:

I don't take these horse ratings seriously

Half of the horses on that list are average at best



I agree with you Tiger.       BUT how do people rate a horse.

I think it was Cliff Carey said .      Rate a Race .       Then the Horses Rate themselves .
   Example =   Cox Plate 2017 ...     Course Record so the Race is to the top of G1 worth. . which in My scale is the imaginery Limit of 50 + 21 = 71 ( up or down 2K as you see fit )   Up 1 for the Course record of Winx   = 72 + 7k carried over the 50 limit =                     Final Rating 79
Humidor 72 less .5K beaten margin 71.5 plus 9K over limit carried = 80.5

Saturday 3rd Winx   71 less lower class 2 = 69 + 7k over limit carried =                                                                                                              Rating 76
   Prized Icon 69 less 7K beaten margin 62 + 9K over, carried= Rating 71

I wait for the day when Humidor does things right in a suitable race and justifies his high Cox Plate Rating.


That is what Timeform does


   Exactly PT...     He learn't his trade from the Don Scott involvement and become part of the Bible of Racing . Timeform .      Ratings are purely an individuals opinion where it is all put to numbers.
My first introduction to "ratings " was the great Cliff Carey   and his words were = There is (approx) 3K between each class.   > The bricks fall into place from there and unbiased judgement long before their next run , has their basic rating in place.
    Great way to stop the the brain drain of indecision.
Like you once said PT .. Things jump off the page at you when you give your time to form study and the more you study the luckier you become.

Racing has changed considerably in the last few decades and the gaps between the good and average have reduced so I suspect ratings don't throw up as many obvious selections as they used to (the old margin/weight parameter used so successfully by Scott et al is largely gone for example). Bookies now also have ratings "experts" on their payrolls which reduces that previous advantage quite a bit also.

I've related this story before but back in the day when I was a mere bebe in racegoer/punter terms an older friend got serious and starting doing ratings - early PC days from memory. He found some absolute standouts at outstanding value (not that we really understood or had the moola to follow). BUT the task of ratng just Melb and Syd weekend meetings was such a task - no decent databases publicly available - that he was burnt out within a year. He generally started Fri night after work and was up until 2-3AM every Sat morning before venturing out to the track.
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maccamax View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Mar 2018 at 11:58am
That's how it was 3bm and today it's at your fingertips in seconds ,   Is still most helpful and reliable.     > That isn't where punters problems are ,     That remains Money Management and betting to, and within the comfort zone of the available bank .
   Most of us have our weaknesses, But we know what's right from wrong.
To win on the gamble is a BUSINESS and as soon as we don't treat it that way we will lose.
   Form study is time consuming , as too many want a finger in every pie.
Specialise in limited events & areas is the answer to that.

RATINGS are no different today as to what they were 60 years ago. Handicappers have used them since the year dot.    
I find their Benchmark methods confusing but I do admit it gives better opportunity to increase field size.   Easily avoided as most are not good betting events anyway ( their numbers are not Ratings as we know them )
       
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shawy38 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Mar 2018 at 6:13am
Wins again
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shawy38 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Mar 2018 at 12:48pm
She was tough today
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jujuno Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Mar 2018 at 12:56pm
Too close for comfort today. Thought she was going to be galloped on at one stage entering the straight.
Desert War, Rain Lover, Latin Knight, Hay List, Mustard...my turf heroes...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Mar 2018 at 12:58pm
Unless she wins by 5 in the QE I can't see them taking her o/s. Yes, no, maybe nearly always ends up as no with high-risk ventures.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jujuno Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Mar 2018 at 1:02pm
Some easy money made with the quinella/ exacta/?trifecta dividends.
Desert War, Rain Lover, Latin Knight, Hay List, Mustard...my turf heroes...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Mar 2018 at 1:08pm
Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

Unless she wins by 5 in the QE I can't see them taking her o/s. Yes, no, maybe nearly always ends up as no with high-risk ventures.


She Won , ==    the sectionals on a very wet track probably accounted for the lack of margin.        I don't think anyone doubted she was always going to win .   Bowman had to nurse her a bit today.
The opposition today were very handy opponents.
       
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacko1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Mar 2018 at 1:17pm
Pretty similar to her run in it two years ago where she had to fight a bit (or at least didn't put a big margin on them). Don't think it will change any decisions, and I don't think she is or ever was going OS.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Mar 2018 at 1:17pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Mar 2018 at 1:45pm
Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:



Very Good PT .    AND 3 wide doing it for 800m.    Great to watch great gallopers ,   Their magic.
       
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shawy38 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Mar 2018 at 1:55pm
Which of Her 17 Group 1’s was her best?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacko1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Mar 2018 at 2:24pm
Originally posted by Shawy38 Shawy38 wrote:

Which of Her 17 Group 1’s was her best?


I guess her second Cox Plate was her most impressive. I thought her Doncaster was the other highlight, she gave Happy Clapper 6kg that day and had to squeeze through a few gaps but won easily.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RED HUNTER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Mar 2018 at 6:22pm
This is crazy

Have a look at her last 600 sectional

They tried another way to beat her

1500,we all know is too short for her yet she managed a remarkable last 600.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carche Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Mar 2018 at 6:23pm
What more can be said about this mare. She is a freak of nature and a joy to behold. Kudos to Happy Clapper who made her work for it today. Kementari looks like a chip off the old block (Lonhro, you stud muffin!) and appears to have inherited his sire's same will to give it his all even if he doesn't win all the time.

I'd like Winx to race at Royal Ascot as she is the real deal, but if she doesn't I don't care. She is an all-time great IMO. Her consistency and form, not to mention her soundness, over the last three years is really seen in this day and age. The world know's where she lives if they want to take her on. What's stopping them? Fear, extensive travel and quarantine, competing out of season? Well, we face the same issues when shipping overseas. AUS/NZ horses through the years have ventured far and wide to compete on the world stage and more than proved their merit - Phar Lap, Shannon, Balmerino, Strawberry Road, Horlicks, Better Loosen Up, Sunline, Starcraft (broke course record at Longchamp and beat Dubawi at Newmarket), Elvstroem, Haradasun, Black Caviar, the beast that is Choisir, Miss Andretti, Takeover Target, Starspangledbanner, Scenic Blast, Ortensia, Buffering, Chautauqua, So You Think, plus others who may not have won at G1 level internationally but placed at the highest level - too many to mention but for some reason Star Witness and Brazen Beau come to mind, and Magnus and Apache Cat and Alverta and Criterion (he was a favourite of mine when he was going around, I just really liked him) plus heaps others. It's about time the world took on our best on our home turf for a change instead of placing the expectation on us to travel to Ascot, Hong Kong, Japan or Dubai or the Breeders Cup to race against the 'best' even though our horses, year in and year out, consistently rate in the Top 50 globally. Overseas travel goes both ways. I'm not a big drinker by any stretch of the imagination, but I've had a couple of G&T's which I reserve for special occasions (I may have poured more than the measured amount) and after today, I had a one or two doubles *shock, horror*, but I don't care. Winx won and I'm happy as. Cheers Beer (took me a while to write this post due to lingering affects (or is it effects) of G&T). 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RED HUNTER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Mar 2018 at 6:44pm
effect of gin and tonic
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RED HUNTER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Mar 2018 at 6:45pm
They say drinking alcohol makes the brain smarter...the dead cells are by-passed and sometimes YOUR best work can happen
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Great win!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Mar 2018 at 7:31pm
Originally posted by RED HUNTER RED HUNTER wrote:

effect of gin and tonic


4 wide Hughie had better get his speed maps out before he ventures into the unbeknown next start.   Winx's best performance in my eyes was to travel 4 wide all the way and break her own course record in the Cox Plate last year, when Bowman was half a length from being embarrassed.

We must not underestimate the capability of Gailo Chop if a slow early pace eventuates , He put a gap on the opposition today and is capable of running to near Record Times.      Winx can't travel 3/4 wide and run him down if he gets a break on her like some have done..    
       
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shawy38 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Mar 2018 at 8:36pm
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by RED HUNTER RED HUNTER wrote:

effect of gin and tonic


4 wide Hughie had better get his speed maps out before he ventures into the unbeknown next start.   Winx's best performance in my eyes was to travel 4 wide all the way and break her own course record in the Cox Plate last year, when Bowman was half a length from being embarrassed.

We must not underestimate the capability of Gailo Chop if a slow early pace eventuates , He put a gap on the opposition today and is capable of running to near Record Times.      Winx can't travel 3/4 wide and run him down if he gets a break on her like some have done..    


She flogged him at moonee valley
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rusty101 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Mar 2018 at 8:37pm
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

 

We must not underestimate the capability of Gailo Chop if a slow early pace eventuates , He put a gap on the opposition today and is capable of running to near Record Times.      Winx can't travel 3/4 wide and run him down if he gets a break on her like some have done..    


Some mothers do 'ave 'em
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Phantom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Mar 2018 at 11:03pm
Outstanding last 600m in a sit sprint race where Hugh sat 3 wide again the trip. She will win again Wink
The More You Put On, The More You Get Back
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2018 at 6:22pm
Originally posted by Rusty101 Rusty101 wrote:

Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

 

We must not underestimate the capability of Gailo Chop if a slow early pace eventuates , He put a gap on the opposition today and is capable of running to near Record Times.      Winx can't travel 3/4 wide and run him down if he gets a break on her like some have done..    



Some mothers do 'ave 'em


I may well remind you in 3 weeks. I'm sure your Mother produces bright lights ,   But Broke.     Winx is the best I've seen so don't accuse me of knocking her.      I was pointing out that Gailo Chop is a very smart horse, and not one to be treated with contempt as 4 wide Hugh has done to others.
G.C .. is back from an 18 month tendon injury spell and didn't reach his potential for the last Cox Plate, in which he led in Course record time.
A slower pace early and he could be competitive. He is a different Horse this time in.
       
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2018 at 6:51pm
Gailo Chop is likely to back up this week in the KIA.

He will not be remotely fast enough to take Winx out of comfort zone 2 weeks later.




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2018 at 7:06pm
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by Rusty101 Rusty101 wrote:

Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

 

We must not underestimate the capability of Gailo Chop if a slow early pace eventuates , He put a gap on the opposition today and is capable of running to near Record Times.      Winx can't travel 3/4 wide and run him down if he gets a break on her like some have done..    



Some mothers do 'ave 'em


I may well remind you in 3 weeks. I'm sure your Mother produces bright lights ,   But Broke.     Winx is the best I've seen so don't accuse me of knocking her.      I was pointing out that Gailo Chop is a very smart horse, and not one to be treated with contempt as 4 wide Hugh has done to others.
G.C .. is back from an 18 month tendon injury spell and didn't reach his potential for the last Cox Plate, in which he led in Course record time.
A slower pace early and he could be competitive. He is a different Horse this time in.


Single Gaze makes gallo chop look good.Wink Doubt he'll back up again for QE if they run Kia.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2018 at 7:20pm
I haven't really said much about The Champ lately as what more do you say? What's left to say? I don't need to argue with the knockers anymore - they're well gone. So we just come to expect what she does each and every time now.

But, like a few have mentioned since Saturday, I'm amazed she is still running the fastest last splits of the day despite running over 1500m and there being a G1 Galaxy and Golden Slipper on the same day! Brilliant.

She'd win an Everest if Waller decided that's what he wanted to aim her at.

The other point, which again has been mentioned above, is to say I think Bowman has stopped trying to ride her well. I mean this with the most respect to Bowman - I think he's the best in the world and am not being critical. But he has stopped trying to give her a good ride. All he does is remove bad luck from the equation and ensure a) he can't be blocked for a run, and b) he can't be caught too far back without the space to take off early if the leaders are getting it too easy.

I understand the pressure he's under and the need to do what he can to ensure he has control over those two things. But it means this mare is having to do some freakish things. Like win a third Cox Plate in a time that breaks her own track record despite sitting 4 wide with no cover for most of the race. Or sitting 3 wide no cover on Saturday and ripping off day's best splits for the last 600m.

Does it matter? Probably not. I hope not. I'm sure if she ever had to race something worthy, he'd show more respect to them and not ride as though she's a moral and can afford to sit deep the trip and win easy.

There is nothing around that can beat her. Said it before and will say it again, she's the best horse I've ever seen.
Sunline...simply supreme
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2018 at 7:36pm
Brilliant comment Sunline.

It reminds me of a George Moore quote or comment that I never heard him say, Whilst he was famous for his whistle, if he was on a good thing he would make sure of it by sitting wide and taking bad luck out of the equation.

Carioca or maccamax might be able to elaborate ?






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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2018 at 9:15pm
Winx is the best I've seen too .    No other Middle Distance / Stayer has been able to overcome the vulnerable shorter races, early in campaigns and string together 24 straight.    Black caviar didn't have to face that dilemma .
   Please don't fool me, by saying you didn't have grave fears for 1 second,
when Humidor loomed large 100m out in the last Cox Plate. I certainly did.
That was caused by Gailo Chop and her wide run.
All I'm saying is ,      I hope we don't have a repeat ,
I still haven't got over the shock of Foxplay, Red Excitement , Happy Clapper , Humidor .        > Winx is NO GOOD <
            For Dikki Tikkers .    
       
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Mar 2018 at 8:18am
If she stays in Australia, stays in form, she could win a 4th Cox Plate and get to 28 wins in a row- both records that will never be broken. If she goes to England she could beat nothing much that will enhance her reputation, win a Queen Anne Stakes (big woopClap) and make the 4th Cox Plate a lot less likely.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Shawy38 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Mar 2018 at 8:30am
Overseas NOT going ahead. Staying in Aus
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