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Winx

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Dr E View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 May 2015 at 1:27am
Originally posted by whitt0 whitt0 wrote:

She has beaten Earthquake, been knocked off by First Seal, beaten Hauraki, 2nd in the AJC Oaks.

She is G1 quality

Don't bother whitt0 - she can't stay, and doesn't have G1 class ...wtf?LOL
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marscay View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote marscay Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 May 2015 at 3:23pm
Her racing style of dropping out will hurt her in the better races.... she can get away with it against her own age.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SYT Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 May 2015 at 3:28pm
Originally posted by Sunline Sunline wrote:

I think she is a 1600m-2000m horse. Doesn't mean she won't be winning tomorrow. She's no price but will be winning.

She has shed loads of class on this field. Ballet Suite can run a race but Winx is a very, very good filly. She has had two goes against the boys and towelled them both times. Back to fillies she will get the distance well enough to win. Beaten by a very good stayer and a poor ride in the ATC Oaks.


Good call
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 May 2015 at 3:31pm
Originally posted by marscay marscay wrote:

Her racing style of dropping out will hurt her in the better races.... she can get away with it against her own age.


Reminds me of Lucia Valentina - in stature, racing pattern and acceleration. She can hopefully make the open WFA grade like her too and have a nice 4yo year.

The turn of foot is the key. If she retains that, she makes the grade.
Sunline...simply supreme
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote horlicks Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 May 2015 at 3:33pm
Originally posted by SYT SYT wrote:

Originally posted by Sunline Sunline wrote:

I think she is a 1600m-2000m horse. Doesn't mean she won't be winning tomorrow. She's no price but will be winning.

She has shed loads of class on this field. Ballet Suite can run a race but Winx is a very, very good filly. She has had two goes against the boys and towelled them both times. Back to fillies she will get the distance well enough to win. Beaten by a very good stayer and a poor ride in the ATC Oaks.


Good call


The 1600m- 200m horse was fully endorsed by Bowman this morning.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Group 1 Selections Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 May 2015 at 3:34pm
As the one to start the thread I am obviously a fan of the horse and have done well backing her especially early. Yes I underestimated her yesterday but gee, she had her chances against the better horses last spring and this Autumn and came up a little short. I am not convinced she is even better then First Seal.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 May 2015 at 3:49pm
You haven't allowed enough for some terrible rides in the autumn. Vinery Stud and ATC Oaks to name two at G1 level in autumn.
Sunline...simply supreme
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JudgeHolden Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 May 2015 at 3:51pm
Originally posted by marscay marscay wrote:

Her racing style of dropping out will hurt her in the better races.... she can get away with it against her own age.


I agree with this and with others about the distance. Doubt she'll stretch out to the Cups distances and very difficult to win at WFA consistently with that racing pattern. Looks an ideal Epsom horse to me.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Group 1 Selections Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 May 2015 at 4:10pm
Hmm, I don't the ride in the ATC oaks was any different to her ride yesterday, just tempo was against, in the vinery she copped minor interference at the top of the straight.

Like I said I like the horse, she has been exceptional up here in qld but she had 3 goes at group 1 level in Sydney and has been held 2L + every time. She has also met First Seal 5 times over 1200m-2000m (which like you I think the 1600m-2000m is her trip) and it is 5-0 to first Seal. First Seal hardly set the world on fire against the older horses.

I think she is a great little filly but I think Waller will struggle to find a Group 1 race for her in the spring.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote LR80 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 May 2015 at 5:58pm
She is heading to the Myer.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 May 2015 at 6:49pm
Yes, Myer Classic is the goal. Perfect race for her, I wouldn't disagree with Waller one bit. She'll get her chance to measure up, be set for it to the minute, and can then let us know if good enough.

But it isn't asking too much of her. No Cox Plates, Mackinnons, or any of the hardcore lead ups to the big three.
Sunline...simply supreme
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MelbourneRacing Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 May 2015 at 7:40pm
How good would it be if we swapped the Emirates and the Mackinnon around?

The only downside is we wouldn't see the best girls against the best boys over a mile on Derby Day, but I would love to see the Mackinnon become a prestigious race and the last Saturday of the carnival become Mackinnon Day.

Reasoning being that Cox Plate horses would have a 14-day break between runs, the Myer and Emirates horses would get a chance to back up a week later over the 2000m and who doesn't want to see a premier 2000m WFA at Flemington attract the best?

It won't happen, but the Emirates is a poor handicap and the Mackinnon should be a great race.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Group 1 Selections Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 May 2015 at 8:45pm
Yep agree, emirates should be WFA mile into the mckinnon on sat after as WFA
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 May 2015 at 9:04pm
Who are the older horses she will be up against ?


STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Group 1 Selections Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 May 2015 at 9:09pm
Originally posted by djebel djebel wrote:

Who are the older horses she will be up against ?


She can't beat horses her own age (First Seal) let alone older horses.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 May 2015 at 10:36pm
Originally posted by Group 1 Selections Group 1 Selections wrote:

Originally posted by djebel djebel wrote:

Who are the older horses she will be up against ?


She can't beat horses her own age (First Seal) let alone older horses.

Who are the older horses she should be fearful of ?


STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 May 2015 at 11:13pm
I'd imagine the noms will feature some or all of:

Winx
Catkins
Noble Protector
Amanpour
Dublin Lass
First Seal
Amicus
Fenway
Plucky Belle
Abduction
Wine Tales
Slightly Sweet
Set Square (maybe)
Sweet And Speedy
Adrift
Ballet Suite
Sunline...simply supreme
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Aug 2015 at 4:57pm
Back tomorrow at Warwick Farm. 


STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Delta Deel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Sep 2015 at 10:48pm
No caulfield cup, interesting. Doubt she will even make a cox plate field especially if the 6 internationals turn up.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Sep 2015 at 11:06pm
She'd make it if she won the Epsom along the way.
Sunline...simply supreme
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote fisherman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Sep 2015 at 12:22am
She certainly looked something special in the QLD Oaks. Hope she continues in the same vain.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bonfield Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Sep 2015 at 9:23am
Clearly she's a good horse, but I don't have her rating particularly highly. I think the Qld Oaks was a very weak race for a G1.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bonfield Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Sep 2015 at 9:25am
The first 3 horses to finish behind her in the Qld Oaks had only won in provincials.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Straight Connector Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Sep 2015 at 9:57am
So what's your opinion of the ATC Oaks, considering the winner had only won in provincials?

I think it is much fairer to judge the strength of the race (esp an oaks) looking back, rather than leading into it. Most horses had barely had the chance establish any consistent form going into the race. These 3yo fillies emerge quite quickly.

The number of horses able to carry on with it as 4yo's, is a much better indicator of a race such as this.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bonfield Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Sep 2015 at 10:52am
As a contrast to the Qld Oaks, the minor placegetters in the ATC Oaks had won group races previously.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bonfield Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Sep 2015 at 10:59am
Don't get me wrong. I think Winx is a smart mare, just unlikely to win a proper G1. Some of these age restricted G1s in Adelaide and Brisbane are not worthy to be G1s. Winx had three previous attempts at fillies grade G1s in Sydney for two 2nds and a 5th. This is more representative of her ability than thinking of her as a easy G1 winner of Qld Oaks.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Straight Connector Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Sep 2015 at 11:05am
I don't think it's fair to say that Candelara is the difference between a strong race & a weak race.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Straight Connector Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Sep 2015 at 11:06am
Let's just see how her & others from the QLD oaks progress as 4yo's as the best indicator.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bonfield Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Sep 2015 at 11:22am
Originally posted by Straight Connector Straight Connector wrote:

Let's just see how her & others from the QLD oaks progress as 4yo's as the best indicator.

I do agree with you that subsequent form is important when assessing the strength of races like the Qld Oaks, but less important that the leadup runs. The reason why is that a horse's form can improve or deteriorate drastically from one preparation to the next. To take an extreme example, consider a 3yo that wins a maiden, then goes on to win a G1 next prep. Does that make the maiden win a group quality race?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Delta Deel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Sep 2015 at 11:39am
I will add, when was the last time a QLD oaks winner went on to win a Group 1 in Syd or Melb? I am finding it hard to remember one since the kiwi mare that did the double cups. Traditionally a very weak race.
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