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Tlazolteotl View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Nov 2018 at 6:26pm
Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

They are only currently racing horses


Aren't those numbers supposed to be so you can compare horses from different eras? So how does Happy Clapper's 129 compare to other Australia greats?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Nov 2018 at 6:38pm
Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

They are only currently racing horses


Aren't those numbers supposed to be so you can compare horses from different eras? So how does Happy Clapper's 129 compare to other Australia greats?

See previous post
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Nov 2018 at 6:43pm
Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

They are only currently racing horses


Aren't those numbers supposed to be so you can compare horses from different eras? So how does Happy Clapper's 129 compare to other Australia greats?

See previous post



So Happy Clapper is equal to Northerly, Sunline, MD, Dulcify and Dundeel and a tad better than Lonhro. Uncanny- that's exactly where I rate him. Great minds, huh.Wink
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Summer Regent Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Nov 2018 at 7:45pm
Those historical Timeform ratings from before the 1980s are just guesses. Todman and Vain 2 pounds better than Winx? 7 pounds better than Winx's Cox Plate win this year? 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Nov 2018 at 8:19pm
Originally posted by Summer Regent Summer Regent wrote:

Those historical Timeform ratings from before the 1980s are just guesses. Todman and Vain 2 pounds better than Winx? 7 pounds better than Winx's Cox Plate win this year? 


I think anything before Racing And Sports ( home of Timeform in Australia ) started online is no more than a guess.

reductio ad absurdum
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Nov 2018 at 8:22pm
Not impressive



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Nov 2018 at 8:32pm
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

Not impressive





Actually it was impressive.

reductio ad absurdum
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pazman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Nov 2018 at 10:12pm
Had the help of the rail.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Nov 2018 at 10:29pm
Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

They are only currently racing horses


Aren't those numbers supposed to be so you can compare horses from different eras? So how does Happy Clapper's 129 compare to other Australia greats?


See previous post



So Happy Clapper is equal to Northerly, Sunline, MD, Dulcify and Dundeel and a tad better than Lonhro. Uncanny- that's exactly where I rate him. Great minds, huh.Wink



This is why TF ratings (in Australia at least) are completely useless when comparing horses from different eras. Totally laughable.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shrunk in the Wash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Nov 2018 at 7:56am
Anyone who believes this stuff has rocks in their head

Sepoy, Weekend Hussler, Humidor, Hay List, Happy Clapper
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JudgeHolden Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Nov 2018 at 8:19am
Remember these are peak performances, not overall summations of how good a horse was. Sepoy flogged a very good field at WFA, albeit on a hideously rails biased track. Weekend Husslers Ryder win was stunning. And Hay List deserves every bit of that rating imo- look at the margins he put on a horse like Buffering.

But agree with the general sentiment, some real head scratchers there. A few years ago, horse like Phar Lap and Tulloch weren’t even there- they’ve obviously been backdated- so you can take them with a grain of salt.

Speaking of peak performances, surely one who’s way to low is Filante for his Epsom- 4L win in track record time (from memory wide draw and top weight, though happy to be corrected here)- surely a bit better than some around him. Ah, Filante- what might have been if we had some decent WFA miles at the time.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Nov 2018 at 10:05am
I see Galilee was rated highly by Timeform. Now he was a champion
Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Nov 2018 at 10:23am

We match Black Caviar against Phar Lap and the rest or Australian racing royalty in the best race to never have been run


I approached Timeform's Australian expert Gary Crispe with a challenging assignment: How would Black Caviar go against the 10 highest-rated champions in a weight-for-age race over 1400m at Randwick?

Crispe had not previously applied the Timeform measures to champion gallopers between the 1930-50s so it gave him an opportunity to finally assess the great Phar Lap, winner of the 1930 Melbourne Cup.

"Timeform UK had already undertaken a considerable effort in assessing some of Australia's early champions, so the job for the Australian Timeform handicappers was to re-examine and update that work and cross reference it against our current framework for Australian thoroughbreds in the global Timeform ratings handicap," Crispe said.

Following this process the immortal Phar Lap was awarded a Timeform rating of 141, Bernborough 138 and Peter Pan 137.



Article is 5 years old , pre Winx but still interesting. Also 1400 m was not Black Caviar's besrt distance


http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/superracing/we-match-black-caviar-against-phar-lap-and-the-rest-or-australian-racing-royalty-in-the-best-race-to-never-have-been-run/news-story/9720af52ab6313234226f5efc39fa6e0

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Nov 2018 at 10:34am
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

We match Black Caviar against Phar Lap and the rest or Australian racing royalty in the best race to never have been run


I approached Timeform's Australian expert Gary Crispe with a challenging assignment: How would Black Caviar go against the 10 highest-rated champions in a weight-for-age race over 1400m at Randwick?

Crispe had not previously applied the Timeform measures to champion gallopers between the 1930-50s so it gave him an opportunity to finally assess the great Phar Lap, winner of the 1930 Melbourne Cup.

"Timeform UK had already undertaken a considerable effort in assessing some of Australia's early champions, so the job for the Australian Timeform handicappers was to re-examine and update that work and cross reference it against our current framework for Australian thoroughbreds in the global Timeform ratings handicap," Crispe said.

Following this process the immortal Phar Lap was awarded a Timeform rating of 141, Bernborough 138 and Peter Pan 137.



Article is 5 years old , pre Winx but still interesting. Also 1400 m was not Black Caviar's besrt distance


http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/superracing/we-match-black-caviar-against-phar-lap-and-the-rest-or-australian-racing-royalty-in-the-best-race-to-never-have-been-run/news-story/9720af52ab6313234226f5efc39fa6e0


It kind of goes against the grain of how they come up with their ratings.

I mean did they have the times for all other races run on the day Phar Lap and company ran. The data they would have had would have been limited.

A 3yo colt like Tulloch should have been rated every bit as talented as a Sea Bird.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Summer Regent Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Nov 2018 at 10:40am
Here's a table of the official Racing Australia Classifications with the best ratings 4yo and up and then 3yos from 1979-80 

Racing Australia’s Australian Classifications (peak performance)

 

Winx 132 (2016-17)

Winx 132 (2017-18)

 

Black Caviar 130 (2010-11)

Black Caviar 130 (2011-12)

Black Caviar 130 (2012-13)

 

Kingston Town 128 (1980-81)

Better Loosen Up 128 (1990-91)

Might and Power 128 (1998-99)

 

Manikato 127 (1980-81)

Kingston Town 127 (1981-82)

Might and Power 127 (1997-98)

Winx 127 (2015-16)

 

Dulcify 126 (1979-80)

Sunline 126 (2000-01)

So You Think 126 (2010-11)

 

Bonecrusher 125 (1986-87)

Rubiton 125 (1987-88)

Saintly 125 (1996-97)

Hay List 125 (2011-12)

 

Kingston Town 124 (1979-80)

Manikato 124 (1980-81)

Gurner’s Lane 124 (1982-83)

Almaarad 124 (1989-90)

Let’s Elope 124 (1991-92)

Super Impose 124 (1991-92)

Schillaci 124 (1992-93)

Jeune 124 (1994-95)

Sunline 124 (1999-2000)

Sunline 124 (2001-02)

Northerly 124 (2002-03)

Makybe Diva 124 (2004-05)

Makybe Diva 124 (2005-06)

Hartnell 124 (2016-17)

 

3 year-olds

 

Kingston Town 124 (1979-80)

 

Sepoy 123 (2011-12)

Trapeze Artist 123 (2017-18)

 

Bonecrusher 122 (1985-86)

Beau Zam 122 (1988-89)

Octagonal 122 (1995-96)

Weekend Hussler 122 (2007-08)

So You Think 122 (2009-10)

Atlantic Jewel (2011-12)

All Too Hard 122 (2012-13)

Pierro 122 (2012-13)

 

Red Anchor 121 (1984-85)

Starspangledbanner 121 (2009-10)

It’s a Dundeel 121 (2012-13)

Brazen Beau 121 (2014-15)


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shrunk in the Wash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Nov 2018 at 3:13pm
Originally posted by JudgeHolden JudgeHolden wrote:

Remember these are peak performances, not overall summations of how good a horse was. Sepoy flogged a very good field at WFA, albeit on a hideously rails biased track. Weekend Husslers Ryder win was stunning. And Hay List deserves every bit of that rating imo- look at the margins he put on a horse like Buffering.

But agree with the general sentiment, some real head scratchers there. A few years ago, horse like Phar Lap and Tulloch weren’t even there- they’ve obviously been backdated- so you can take them with a grain of salt.

Speaking of peak performances, surely one who’s way to low is Filante for his Epsom- 4L win in track record time (from memory wide draw and top weight, though happy to be corrected here)- surely a bit better than some around him. Ah, Filante- what might have been if we had some decent WFA miles at the time.


I understand it’s peak performance but no way can anything that The Hussler did out rate Lonhro, Northelys peak for example

The ratings are massively flawed
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Formerly Kincsem Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Nov 2018 at 3:58pm
Ratings from generation to generation don't add up. Would be very simple to rectify this by assuming a consistent average for say the top 100 or so rated horses each season. This is what it took timeform 60 years to do with their own ratings between the generations. 

On anomallys surely Vo Rogue threw some massive numbers at some point destroying Super Impose and BLU. I would love someone to dissect his better performances. He put big margins on very good horses. Maybe not quite Frankel dominance but he put up some Dubai Millennium type performances who is rated 140. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Formerly Kincsem Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Nov 2018 at 4:02pm
If Vo Rogue was from the UK he would be 135 plus probably more. Clear illustration of UK bias. The very very inconsistent Hawk Wing put 1 very good performance down on a wet track and he was awarded 140 despite never rating anywhere near that again. Vo Rogue did it half a dozen times for 128???  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Nov 2018 at 4:08pm
Are those ratings really on peak performances? Ratings based on peak performances are bullsh1t. Half of the track records are held by horses with one-off peak performances that reflected nothing like the reality of what you are going to get when you back them. A lot of drug peaked performances I would wager too.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Summer Regent Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Nov 2018 at 6:18pm
Here are the top 4yo and up performances for 2017-18  according to the ACC Classifications:

ACC CLASSIFICATIONS 2017/18


RTGHORSEAGESEXDATEVENUERACEGROUPCONDDISTGOINGCATFIN
132Winx6M14/04/2018RANDATC QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKESGroup 1WFA2000GOODI1
130Winx6M3/03/2018RANDCHIPPING NORTON STAKESGroup 1WFA1600SOFTM1
130Winx6M7/10/2017FLEMTURNBULL STAKESGroup 1SWP2000GOODI1
123Happy Clapper7G7/04/2018RANDDONCASTER HANDICAPGroup 1Hcp1600GOODM1
122Humidor5G16/09/2017FLEMMAKYBE DIVA STAKESGroup 1WFA1600GOODM1
122Humidor5G28/10/2017M VW S COX PLATEGroup 1WFA2040GOODI2
121Redzel5G14/10/2017RANDTHE EVEREST WFA1200GOODS1
121Redkirk Warrior7G10/03/2018FLEMVRC NEWMARKET HANDICAPGroup 1Hcp1200GOODS1
121Happy Clapper7G16/09/2017RANDGEORGE MAIN STAKESGroup 1WFA1600GOODM2
121Winx6M16/09/2017RANDGEORGE MAIN STAKESGroup 1WFA1600GOODM1
121Happy Clapper7G30/09/2017RANDEPSOM HANDICAPGroup 1Hcp1600GOODM1
121Happy Clapper7G24/03/2018RHILGEORGE RYDER STAKESGroup 1WFA1500SOFTM2
120Redzel5G11/11/2017FLEMVICTORIA RACING CLUB STAKESGroup 1WFA1200GOODS1
120Happy Clapper7G10/03/2018RANDCANTERBURY STAKESGroup 1WFA1300GOODS1
120Vega Magic6G28/07/2018CAULBLETCHINGLY STAKESGroup 3WFA1200GOODS1
120Vega Magic5G2/09/2017CAULMEMSIE STAKESGroup 1WFA1400GOODM1
120Winx6M28/10/2017M VW S COX PLATEGroup 1WFA2040GOODI1
120Gailo Chop7G14/04/2018RANDATC QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKESGroup 1WFA2000GOODI2
120Gailo Chop7G24/03/2018RHILRAWSON STAKESGroup 1WFA2000SOFTI1
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pazman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Nov 2018 at 10:38pm
How can Humidor rated than Winx in the 2017 CP?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Speediskey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Nov 2018 at 11:15pm
Originally posted by Pazman Pazman wrote:

How can Humidor rated than Winx in the 2017 CP?

He carried 2kg more.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Nov 2018 at 1:00am
Speediskey ...    Ratings are always some individuals opinion.

   Basic Top rating for the Top gallopers ( in the scale I use )Sydney --Melb are ...   Open Hcp 17 plus weight carried over 50
                  Listed   18
                  G3       19
                  G2       20
                  G1       21
     Beaten horses -1 per length. beaten
   Your judgement can alter that for their next run down 2 or up 2
If you have a sound reason...   To get your rating for their next race .. then you weigh up the variables that may have you give them extra i or
2 ..   for better barrier , pace , Rider , improvement , consistency.etc
Add up your totals , price them accordingly if you wish and get surprises.
    Cox Plate with Humidor ....    Winx 21 carried 57 so rating 28
won by half Length in record time ..
                                 Humidor 21 less >.5 carried 59 rating 29.5
With Winx racing 4 wide most of way.Humidor box seat easier run, I gave Winx a +1.5 bonus . Making her next race rating 29.5

Play with that as it is very reliable.   PM me if u wish.
The lower grades work the same on lower class figures as you would know.

   Both horses were profitable to follow in 6 suitable races since.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Nov 2018 at 1:02am
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

   Speediskey ...    Ratings are always some individuals opinion.

   Basic Top rating for the Top gallopers ( in the scale I use )Sydney --Melb are ...   Open Hcp 17 plus weight carried over 50
                  Listed   18
                  G3       19
                  G2       20
                  G1       21
     Beaten horses -1 per length. beaten
   Your judgement can alter that for their next run down 2 or up 2
If you have a sound reason...   To get your rating for their next race .. then you weigh up the variables that may have you give them extra i or
2 ..   for better barrier , pace , Rider , improvement , consistency.etc
Add up your totals , price them accordingly if you wish and get surprises.
    Cox Plate with Humidor ....    Winx 21 carried 57 so rating 28
won by half Length in record time ..
                                 Humidor 21 less >.5 carried 59 rating 29.5
With Winx racing 4 wide most of way.Humidor box seat easier run, I gave Winx a +1.5 bonus . Making her next race rating 29.5

Play with that as it is very reliable.   PM me if u wish.
The lower grades work the same on lower class figures as you would know.

   Both horses were profitable to follow in 6 suitable races since.


That was supposed to answer PAZ   ..   but speedy won't mind.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Speediskey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Nov 2018 at 1:10am
Yeah, I agree with what you're saying completely - pretty obvious Winx was the far superior run in the race. Just telling Paz how they came to the rating.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Nov 2018 at 1:17am
Originally posted by Speediskey Speediskey wrote:

Yeah, I agree with what you're saying completely - pretty obvious Winx was the far superior run in the race. Just telling Paz how they came to the rating.


And correct ... Speedy ...    I was having a senior moment as you saw.

     The beauty of ratings is you don't look at tips , prices , radio etc
until you have done your work and when finished ... GOD can't change my mind.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pazman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Nov 2018 at 4:04am
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by Speediskey Speediskey wrote:

Yeah, I agree with what you're saying completely - pretty obvious Winx was the far superior run in the race. Just telling Paz how they came to the rating.


And correct ... Speedy ...    I was having a senior moment as you saw.

     The beauty of ratings is you don't look at tips , prices , radio etc
until you have done your work and when finished ... GOD can't change my mind.


It's WFA and Humidor had a dream run.

Winx was kept out of trouble.

Two important variables that are in Winx favour.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Nov 2018 at 11:48am
Basically (mares actual ratings allowance seems to vary):
Humidor 122, Winx 120

Winx receives a 5lb/point ratings allowance making hers a 3lb superior run at WFA. Probably about right relatively speaking. 

The actual number (120) is rubbish imo. She broke the course record again in the Cox Plate after racing wide. If that was 12lbs inferior to her QRII win I'll give up punting. She beat Gailo Chop and Happy Clapper by further in the CP, Humidor by less (he didn't get the pace he needs and from memory was behind in his prep heading to Sydney???). Ran 1.35 outside the track record at Randwick but good sectionals as usual.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Nov 2018 at 12:24pm
Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

Basically (mares actual ratings allowance seems to vary):
Humidor 122, Winx 120

Winx receives a 5lb/point ratings allowance making hers a 3lb superior run at WFA. Probably about right relatively speaking. 

The actual number (120) is rubbish imo. She broke the course record again in the Cox Plate after racing wide. If that was 12lbs inferior to her QRII win I'll give up punting. She beat Gailo Chop and Happy Clapper by further in the CP, Humidor by less (he didn't get the pace he needs and from memory was behind in his prep heading to Sydney???). Ran 1.35 outside the track record at Randwick but good sectionals as usual.


There are thousands of past gallopers who would rate within 2K of Winx .
( She's The best I've seen to 2200.)
I won't ever see her record beaten ( Probably never will be )
Her ability to produce that sensational sectional , is the difference .
I've always said .    ONLY about 1K seperates quite a few Champions .
Next best the Mighty Tulloch .   October 3Y/O breaks the world record for 1.5 mile in Caulfield Cup. . Stood for 20 years
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sneck Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Nov 2018 at 2:20pm
Just consider timeform the equivalent of one decent private handicapper and don't elevate them to a status beyond that which they don't deserve.
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