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Winx

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maccamax View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Oct 2018 at 8:52pm
Amazing race to keep watching the replays.       Shows how the split second decisions can cost you.        Bowman was stuffed when snookered inside at the rear , with them walking up front.
I still don't know how she was able to overcome so many "bad Luck" positions.
Had her stablemate held it's run for another 50m ,   Winx would have had the job ahead.   She had no where to go.       There is a God.
It's OK for You to disagree with me.   > I can't force you to be right.


























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furious View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote furious Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Oct 2018 at 9:33pm
The difference between a champion and a great horse.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacko1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 10 Oct 2018 at 10:09pm
My thoughts during the race (1400m-1200m mark) were why doesn't Bowman pull back and get onto Tally's back rather than riding for luck? 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Oct 2018 at 3:03pm
Chris Waller "It will take a champion to beat her and when that champion come along it will be out of my control"


STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shawy38 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Oct 2018 at 3:10pm
Originally posted by djebel djebel wrote:

<b style="line-height: 16.8px;"><font face="Geneva, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" color="#0000ff">Chris Waller <font size="5" color="#ff0000">"It will take a champion to beat her and when that champion come along it will be out of my control"


The Autumn Sun is under your control Christopher
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gee Gee Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Oct 2018 at 3:58pm
be funny if Gai's sends Thinkin' Big to the CP, jock takes off early leaving Huge Bowman blocked in and an a hugh task to reel him in. 

Then Christine Waller would've thought i should've ran The Autumn Sun. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Sneck Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Oct 2018 at 9:42pm
It's more likely Winx simply underperforming one race will beat her.
Horse aren't machines.
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maccamax View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2018 at 12:09pm
Last start replica of no run available ,is how she will get beaten.
Rare to see her on the inside and it almost cost her.
Bowman a victim of circumstances and the old story , an even break in running or you've got problems , WINX or not.
I still don't know how she overcame an interupted 800m sprint home.

   BTW ..      Watched an interesting interview with the owners . Winx prize money goes to charity ...   Nice one.    
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote acacia alba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2018 at 12:23pm
What charity, Macca ? 
animals before people.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gee Gee Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2018 at 3:39pm
macca's
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bonfield Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2018 at 5:04pm
Alan Rowland

If Benbatl or Blair House beats Winx fair and square, what does that say about our racing? Some will say Winx never deserved to be rated best horse in the world because our racing is crap. After all they have been saying that for years because they have been winning our main staying races with second string horses.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bonfield Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2018 at 5:06pm
What iff Benbatl or Blair House beats Winx fair and square, what does that say about our racing? Some will say Winx never deserved to be rated best horse in the world because our racing is crap. After all they have been saying that for years because they have been winning our main staying races with
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bonfield Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2018 at 5:07pm
...  second stringers.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Speediskey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2018 at 5:09pm
It’ll say exactly that. What if she streets them like she did Highland Reel? Will they finally increase her rating?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2018 at 5:11pm
If my Aunty had balls she’d be my uncle.

Last worry about that IF it happens.
The market thinks it’s unlikely.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote furious Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2018 at 5:12pm
After what she did last time and still you don't believe!  Even a great horse gets beaten when things go wrong.  She deserved to finish a close second at best but got home by a length.  Ordinary horses don't do that.  She runs time.  Both directions.  Wet and dry.   Never does it easy yet that is the best way to describe how she wins.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote furious Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2018 at 5:13pm
That was aimed at Bonfield by the way.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bonfield Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2018 at 5:17pm
She should win but I think she's unders at $1.25. I have her $1.40. Yes, that's still short, but it does represent a 29% chance that she gets beat. Benbatl, and to a lesser extent Blair House, are very good G1 European middle distance WFA horses. Take this scenario, what if Benbatl gets a beautiful run on pace and Bowman gets Winx in a spot like in the Turnbull? Very hard to see her running him down. What if there is a bias on the day and Winx gets in the slow ground? After all her first Cox Plate was aided by a rails bias. What if a bias works against her favouring Benbatl? No way she beats him. Even Humidor is not without a chance. Last year Winx only just beat him and Winx had every chance. What if she has a hard run? I'm not predicting a Winx loss, but I'm not going to do what a lot of people will, and that's taking her in multis, assuming she just wins.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote kingjim Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2018 at 5:21pm
A lot of mumbo jumbo and what ifs in your post.
The facts are she has beaten them all wet/dry , left/right handed,.
Humidor had the dream run while she was 3/4 wide and still couldnt beat her and then she had the audacity to run the time she did.
She wins this unless she falls over
Verde ole
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TJMitchell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2018 at 5:22pm
My money will be on Benbatl. No point having anything on Winx so why not have a little play? A good price for one of the best to ever come here for the Plate.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bonfield Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2018 at 5:25pm
Very easy to just say Winx will win. After all the odds favour that you will be right. In fact I rpedict Winx will win too. But to say she has to fall over to lose is just silly. Anyone who bets knows there are lots of ways to get beaten, and in this year's Cox Plate she has enough opposition that she doesn't want too much to go wrong.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bonfield Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2018 at 5:30pm
When you think about it it's amazing how she has managed to string together so many wins in a row given her racing style. She generally gets back a bit so always needs a bit of luck. It's a wonder she hasn't drawn 1 and gotten boxed in before now. I'm old enough to remember Malcolm Johnston getting boxed in on Kingston Town one day when he was long odds on. Nothing he could do, just couldn't get out. Johnston came back to scale crying.

It was different with Black Caviar. She sat on pace so made her own luck. Winx is subject to more luck in running, as we saw last start when she could have been in awful trouble due to a poor ride by Bowman. She was just lucky ta gap opened for her at the right time. Yes, Winx was lucky to win last time. If she'd run into backsides, as we see every raceday, she would have been beaten.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2018 at 5:50pm
Haha Mal wasn’t the only one crying.
I was a young bloke,and emptied out on the 7 to 2 on.
It was in a four horse race won by rare form at rosehill.
It was a tough way to do your dough
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2018 at 5:54pm
How will we define fair and square ?

If she is beaten she will have had a bad day.

Her only danger is Yucatan and he is not nommed.


STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sneck Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2018 at 5:55pm
Originally posted by Bonfield Bonfield wrote:

When you think about it it's amazing how she has managed to string together so many wins in a row given her racing style. She generally gets back a bit so always needs a bit of luck. It's a wonder she hasn't drawn 1 and gotten boxed in before now. I'm old enough to remember Malcolm Johnston getting boxed in on Kingston Town one day when he was long odds on. Nothing he could do, just couldn't get out. Johnston came back to scale crying.

It was different with Black Caviar. She sat on pace so made her own luck. Winx is subject to more luck in running, as we saw last start when she could have been in awful trouble due to a poor ride by Bowman. She was just lucky ta gap opened for her at the right time. Yes, Winx was lucky to win last time. If she'd run into backsides, as we see every raceday, she would have been beaten.
Bowman has taken alot of luck out of the equation and given her galloping room in most of her wins. For her to be stuck on the fence behind runners is unusual. In a small WFA field just go back to last from barrier one.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bonfield Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2018 at 7:40pm
Originally posted by rusty nails rusty nails wrote:

Haha Mal wasn’t the only one crying.
I was a young bloke,and emptied out on the 7 to 2 on.
It was in a four horse race won by rare form at rosehill.
It was a tough way to do your dough

Yes I think it was Rare Form. You have a good memory.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bonfield Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2018 at 7:43pm
Originally posted by djebel djebel wrote:

How will we define fair and square ?

If she is beaten she will have had a bad day.

Her only danger is Yucatan and he is not nommed.

I agree. I can't see her beaten fair and square unless she has an off day. However my scenario was her getting beaten with no excuse on the day (such as bad luck in running). My only point was it would do Australia's international reputation quite a bit of harm. People overseas would assume that if Winx (our best horse in 50 years) can be beaten by Benbatl then our racing can't be much chop.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bonfield Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2018 at 7:44pm
Again, I'm not predicting it, just saying....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shawy38 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2018 at 8:32pm
Winx will win, it’s as simple as that.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Speediskey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Oct 2018 at 8:34pm
Where do you see the bad luck in running coming from, though? Unlike the Turnbull the Cox Plate looks like it’s going to be about a 7 horse field max, it’s pretty hard to get boxed in with that.
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