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WHO WILL WIN THE HUNTER CUP

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Poll Question: Hunter Cup Winner 2008
Poll Choice Votes Poll Statistics
5 [41.67%]
4 [33.33%]
2 [16.67%]
0 [0.00%]
1 [8.33%]
0 [0.00%]
0 [0.00%]
0 [0.00%]
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RFlensing View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RFlensing Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Feb 2008 at 9:45pm
I don't mind Manwarra as an outside place chance either.
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RFlensing View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RFlensing Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Feb 2008 at 1:41am
LOL
 That's the extent of my harness knowledge...
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sam14 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sam14 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Feb 2008 at 1:42am
Originally posted by NORTHERLY NORTHERLY wrote:

Originally posted by sam14 sam14 wrote:

report for duty from the 1 is a top bet. also blacks a fake will be hardest to beat, wont get to the front early and be worried out of it by safari.
 
strongly disagree with the first sentence samuel
 
 
strongly disagree great call. now find something to say that might help the forum.
Little Bassie Murphy knows how to ride winners. Back him all day everyday.   D.K Weir=WINNERS=MONEY.      'And Knockout races away with the cup'
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Blake Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Feb 2008 at 1:48am
what a star blacks a fake is.............just went woooooooooooosh LOL

$6.50 = extreme value

im starting to like this harness game.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sam14 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Feb 2008 at 1:52am
top 4 all big runs. safari was a tough effort to stay on. Report for duty and smokin up have arrived in the big league.  blacky was just to good. i could see that happening a mile out. top drive.
Little Bassie Murphy knows how to ride winners. Back him all day everyday.   D.K Weir=WINNERS=MONEY.      'And Knockout races away with the cup'
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote nodasil Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Feb 2008 at 2:15am
I love blacks a fake!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Imastrongone Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Feb 2008 at 2:18am
The astute punter wouldve taken the $18 offered about the best Australian pacer we've seen in the last decade
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Blake Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Feb 2008 at 2:20am
$18?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote NORTHERLY Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Feb 2008 at 2:11am
Originally posted by sam14 sam14 wrote:

Originally posted by NORTHERLY NORTHERLY wrote:

Originally posted by sam14 sam14 wrote:

report for duty from the 1 is a top bet. also blacks a fake will be hardest to beat, wont get to the front early and be worried out of it by safari.
 
strongly disagree with the first sentence samuel
 
 
strongly disagree great call. now find something to say that might help the forum.
 
agghh sammy, i clearly said as stated above that i disagree with the first sentence, not the second about blacks a fake. how do we know if you were talkin each way or the win with report for duty. you didn't state that. some one could have come on here , read that n backed it straight out. therefore losing thanks to you
2008 Cox Plate= Life
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NORTHERLY View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote NORTHERLY Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Feb 2008 at 2:20am
Originally posted by NORTHERLY NORTHERLY wrote:

make me shut up . get a spine. in some aspects of life you just seem to go missing. harness is simple, the 1 leads n wins if it has good early speed. simple concept
 
Just in regard to the second half of this post where i'm talking about the 1 in harness racing, if you placed a wager in every race in yesterday's Mooney Valley meeting of $10 on the number one, you would've made a profit of $623. easy money. And who said i don't know harness.  But Sam14 will somehow find a way to belittle me with some crude and unwanted comment. you rock Sam
 
Outlay $100 Return $723  Profit $623
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote regal_roller Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Feb 2008 at 3:25am
Money Money Money
Money talks and Bullsh*t Walks
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote punter Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Feb 2008 at 3:30am
Blacks will win 3rd Interdom no worries, Elsu(NZ) and BAF(AUS) are the best Pacers in the last Decade.
"Show Me The Money!!"
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote nodasil Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Feb 2008 at 4:56am

Its only 2008. You forgetting three time Inter winner Our Sir Vancelot, 2.2M earner Shakamaker, Little mouse Courage Under Fire and of course, Christian Cullen!

CC definately better then both imo, , remember his Miracle Mile annihalation! CUF done things juveniles just dont do and was just as good as an older horse, Shakas prizemoney talks for itself and OSV record is impeccable!
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sam14 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Feb 2008 at 6:17am
Originally posted by NORTHERLY NORTHERLY wrote:

Originally posted by sam14 sam14 wrote:

Originally posted by NORTHERLY NORTHERLY wrote:

Originally posted by sam14 sam14 wrote:

report for duty from the 1 is a top bet. also blacks a fake will be hardest to beat, wont get to the front early and be worried out of it by safari.
 
strongly disagree with the first sentence samuel
 
 
strongly disagree great call. now find something to say that might help the forum.
 
agghh sammy, i clearly said as stated above that i disagree with the first sentence, not the second about blacks a fake. how do we know if you were talkin each way or the win with report for duty. you didn't state that. some one could have come on here , read that n backed it straight out. therefore losing thanks to you
 
 
there fault i took the 13's and 4's about report for duty. i give two selections. 1 wins at decent odds and 1 runs third at good eachway odds. cant ask for much more.
Little Bassie Murphy knows how to ride winners. Back him all day everyday.   D.K Weir=WINNERS=MONEY.      'And Knockout races away with the cup'
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sam14 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Feb 2008 at 6:18am
Originally posted by NORTHERLY NORTHERLY wrote:

[QUOTE=NORTHERLY]make me shut up . get a spine. in some aspects of life you just seem to go missing. harness is simple, the 1 leads n wins if it has good early speed. simple concept
 
Just in regard to the second half of this post where i'm talking about the 1 in harness racing, if you placed a wager in every race in yesterday's Mooney Valley meeting of $10 on the number one, you would've made a profit of $623. easy money. And who said i don't know harness.  But Sam14 will somehow find a way to belittle me with some crude and unwanted comment. you rock Sam
 
Outlay $100 Return $723  Profit $623
[/QUOTE
 
should have done it then mate. easy saying it after the races. do it next week and see how u go.
Little Bassie Murphy knows how to ride winners. Back him all day everyday.   D.K Weir=WINNERS=MONEY.      'And Knockout races away with the cup'
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote NORTHERLY Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Feb 2008 at 6:20am
you rock, 6 from 10 on the day won from 1, therefore proving my theory pretty correct
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote regal_roller Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Feb 2008 at 6:23am
Has this theory been tested over a long period of time Northerly? Or just at this one race meet?
 
 I like betting theories and strategies and your "Back the 1 Everytime" strategy is intriging
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote NORTHERLY Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Feb 2008 at 6:28am
Originally posted by sam14 sam14 wrote:

Originally posted by NORTHERLY NORTHERLY wrote:

[QUOTE=NORTHERLY]make me shut up . get a spine. in some aspects of life you just seem to go missing. harness is simple, the 1 leads n wins if it has good early speed. simple concept
 
Just in regard to the second half of this post where i'm talking about the 1 in harness racing, if you placed a wager in every race in yesterday's Mooney Valley meeting of $10 on the number one, you would've made a profit of $623. easy money. And who said i don't know harness.  But Sam14 will somehow find a way to belittle me with some crude and unwanted comment. you rock Sam
 
Outlay $100 Return $723  Profit $623
[/QUOTE
 
should have done it then mate. easy saying it after the races. do it next week and see how u go.
 
we all know numbnuts the return isn't goin to be as high as that everytime, but it does prove that i do know a little about harness racing, which you were questioning me about. but it dosent phase me too much. had two bets for the day, and both got up. of course on the 1. didn't really need to bet sunday anyway, and not that big a fan of harness. playright and musidora have funded my next month, but its fun, and its life. You need to loosen up a bit i think, and smile once every now and then. your a good kid
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote regal_roller Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Feb 2008 at 6:36am
Bathurst Harness today, put $1 e/w on the 1 in every race:
Outlay $16
Win $38.4
PROFIT:$22.40
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote regal_roller Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Feb 2008 at 6:39am
Glocester
Outlay:$16
Win: $30.8
PROFIT $14.8
 
I like your theory Northerly...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote NORTHERLY Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Feb 2008 at 6:39am
Originally posted by regal_roller regal_roller wrote:

Has this theory been tested over a long period of time Northerly? Or just at this one race meet?
 
 I like betting theories and strategies and your "Back the 1 Everytime" strategy is intriging
 
 Roller, welcome
 
This theory i have been putting into place for a few years now, with the results being very rewarding. Its not always the case of backing the 1 everytime, but as shown this can work as well. I work on the notion of if the 1 has got good early speed, its either going to lead or either get the gun run in the 1,1 therefore giving it every chance to win the race. if leading the 1 is in front of course, making it up to the others to do the hard work to pass it, and in more cases than not, they can expend alot of energy trying to do so, giving the leader an advantage. i know people are going to criticise this theory, but believe me, it works for me in more cases than not.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote NORTHERLY Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Feb 2008 at 6:41am
I know you like free money roller, its nice isn't it? it makes you feel alive
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote regal_roller Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Feb 2008 at 6:41am
It won't be in the 1,1 mate, it'll be one back the fence
 
Thought I'd point this out before Sam14 gets a chance to shoot it down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote NORTHERLY Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Feb 2008 at 6:52am

Thats right roller, your a good bloke. like i said i'm not a big fan of harness compared to gallops, but i do enjoy watching the 1 lead all the way, and making a nice profit on a regular basis. sam 'll still use that against me, coz he's seen me put this theory into place and its the only dirt he has. We all remember that night at jds when"i am tough"  saluted for me along with numerous others leading all the way don't we guys. happy times

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He has gone a touch quiet I'll add....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote NORTHERLY Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Feb 2008 at 7:00am
think ill head off roller. it dosent matter if people question this theory, as long as we know and believe it. Even if people mock this system, they can't stop us from putting it into place and making a nice profit. life= love it
 
peace
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote RFlensing Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Feb 2008 at 9:13am
I'm all for betting systems, but the problem in this one lies in the isolation; if you stick to a system, you're bound by its limitations. If I can explain.

 You've taken Hunter Cup day in isolation. A tidy profit, admittedly. If you take backing the one as I tested over any period of more than one meet, the results aren't really all that encouraging.

 I took between the 10th and the 30th of November, inclusive. I was actually checking the harness results between these dates for my own system as I was reading the harness forum, and I noticed this post of yours. At Maryborough on the 26th of November I saw the FR1 win in the results paying $59, and that's why I chose this area. I used selection bias to make backing the FR1 look more enticing than it actually is, and even then the results were average.

 For the 21 days, betting in each TAB listed harness race, the outlay was 569 units. Given a straight win dividend (which is usually more profitable than each way, particularly with long shots, as the FR1 can sometimes be) the return was 499.5 units, a loss of 69.5 units, or 12.21%.

 I'd be more than happy to test this further; I might expand it to a couple of months, but like most systems that aren't based on current or past performance of a horse, eventually it fails because it's essentially picking numbers out of a hat, the only difference being, all the numbers are 1.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pinevale Lad Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Feb 2008 at 4:45pm
Is it possible to study all Metropolitan Meetings and see which draw has the highest win rate etc? Lets say on a monthly basis or weekly or whatever
Running Pinevale
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Originally posted by Pinevale Lad Pinevale Lad wrote:

Is it possible to study all Metropolitan Meetings and see which draw has the highest win rate etc? Lets say on a monthly basis or weekly or whatever

 Sure is.

 Just say which tracks and the period of time: I love this sort of stuff.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote sam14 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Feb 2008 at 6:46am
gone quiet cause a man has to work u dick breath. quite a simple concept about the 1. been around since harness racing started. clear advantage if it has early speed. Ventilla and Offenbach supplied my next year so i dont care about much at the moment. Learn the racing lingo u better too. in the 1-1 behind the leaderWacko. you'll get there 1 day northerly ull get there 1 day. Until we speak again watch out for the MADMAN.
Little Bassie Murphy knows how to ride winners. Back him all day everyday.   D.K Weir=WINNERS=MONEY.      'And Knockout races away with the cup'
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