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Vic Weather

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Gay3 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Sep 2016 at 6:17pm
Originally posted by Go Flash Go Go Flash Go wrote:

This week looks like a repeat of last week which is alright if a little repetitive Smile



"The good news is the models still see the Low forming, the bad news is Southern Vic will get little now as it looks to stay North."
"So thats all i have time for tonight, by the morning we should have seen a big dumping of rain over the Mallee and Wimmera of Victoria."

Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Sep 2016 at 7:19pm
Do not talk to us about weather.  Cry

Wang races transferred tomorrow, 60% the property 4 inches under water (yes that's 10 mls for anyone under 50 years of age) and another 10-35 mls expected tomorrow.

ps did I mention not talking about *#!! weather?  Ouch
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Go Flash Go Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Sep 2016 at 3:32pm
Originally posted by Gay3 Gay3 wrote:

Originally posted by Go Flash Go Go Flash Go wrote:

This week looks like a repeat of last week which is alright if a little repetitive Smile



"The good news is the models still see the Low forming, the bad news is Southern Vic will get little now as it looks to stay North."
"So thats all i have time for tonight, by the morning we should have seen a big dumping of rain over the Mallee and Wimmera of Victoria."

 
.... it's hard to plan your week with an update on Tuesday night.
 
There was a lot of scampering for new data by the Weather bureau yesterday afternoon which made things look sus as far as their predictions went.....
 
... anyway good day to catch up on things (without getting wet Smile)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Sep 2016 at 7:19pm

**** POTENTIAL MOST DANGEROUS WEATHER SYSTEM OF THE YEAR MAY IMPACT SOUTHERN/SOUTH EASTERN AUSTRALIA NEXT WEEK WITH HEAVY RAIN, FLOODING IN PARTS AND DANGEROUS WINDS!! (5 to 6 days time) ****

**** PLEASE SHARE/TAG THIS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT WARNING/INFORMATION AS THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE VERY DANGEROUS ****

- This system (System no 7 as we named it a few days ago) has the energy and power to be equivalent to a category one possibly even a category two.. Due to the low pressure and powerful damaging possibly destructive winds.

- A very strong front and trough will combine to bring rain some heavy in parts along with thunderstorms (some severe) over south eastern and eastern Australia

- The rain may produce further flooding in parts of Victoria, SA, TAS, inland NSW, Southern QLD may also see flooding conditions worsen.

- A low will develop in response to the strong cold front and "BOMB" in the Bight with extreme low pressure, Most models now show are very similar scenario with the low expected to deepen between 970-980hPa at its peak!

- A low this deep is likely to result in widespread damage! Flooding along the coast. coastal erosion parts of SA and VIC & possibly Tasmania as well as damaging/destructive winds with 125km/h+ wind gusts near the low, heavy rain also near the low as it wraps around.

Please guys regardless if this system happens to this strength or ends up being weaker we need to let people know of the POTENTIAL DANGER if it develops exactly like this or even remotely close to how the models suggest.

Any low this large and this deep at 985hPa or below can cause widespread dangerous weather.

Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Sep 2016 at 11:57pm
OMG! ... Where's the promised Global Warming!!! ... predictions of endless drought are seeming a little bit fanciful ... especially when we look like having an inland sea!

Thank god for the desalination plants! ... can we please have some more, before we all die of dehydration!???Stern Smile
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Go Flash Go Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Sep 2016 at 8:56pm

And here we go again another rollercoaster week (if it all eventuates) with the important day being Sunday this time - hopefully all sunshine by then ...

 ... and and and where will this water all go  ... ??? ... mainly straight into the sea ..... because ????
 
Heard the chain lock on the gate of ? state's desal plant has gone rusty
 
 ....who needs comedians when you live is ostraylia Big smile
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Dec 2016 at 12:49pm
Hoping Ballarat gets some of this 'cos gez it's dry Ouch Yep, I sure remember Feb '11, we ended up with 1/2 next doors' sand track in our paddock (still got it) courtesy of the new hill track drainage not being correctly diverted Angry

Special Update, December 29th.

Posted on AnthonyPosted in Premium

Good afternoon everyone, hope you are coping with this record humidity, I am indeed not as its my one thing I hate most.

However, it does bring weather with it so on this occasion it is worth it. And believe me its about to bring it.

We are about to see a very special event unfold, much like Feb 4 2011 if anyone can remember it.

We are now at record humidity levels and dew points, and this can only mean one thing, we are about to see one of the biggest events we will ever see.

For the next 6 hours, most of the action will be inside these two lines, coming down from the NW. And what will happen is these two lines will ever so slowly moves East, and the storms will just continue erupting inside this area.

This is what we call training over the same area, so we have huge potential here for some extraordinary falls, in the vicinity of 100 mm plus.

Current radar shows this explosion of storms, and this is nothing compared to what it will look like in a couple of hours. So everyone needs to prepare for flooding this evening and large hailstones, takes all precautions you can now in Victoria and Southern NSW inside this area.

The NE of the state will easily see falls to 100 mm, it wont surprise to see some spots double that, and I think I have mentioned this from the start a week ago, nothing will surprise me with this system.

Tonight I will also update on this system, and check on everything else that is going as well. I will keep updating on FB too this afternoon on my page as it unfolds.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Brudder_A Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Dec 2016 at 7:39pm
I left Melbourne for Adelaide today and drove through the deluge from about Stawell to Horsham.

The rain was coming down hard in many places along the road.  Knew very well that if I didn't leave early today that I could get quite stuck in Melbourne especially around the Ring Road near Tullamarine.
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Dec 2016 at 5:52am
Very dry here still, it completely missed us Angry I think there's a race meeting due around mid month, that should trigger it LOL LOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Go Flash Go Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Dec 2016 at 1:32pm
Nice to see the end of that 100 % rel humidity in Melbourne ....... for now ...... Wink
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Dec 2016 at 1:54pm
 Yes that was most uncomfortable, face caked with sweat every time I took dog for a walk, but the worst is trying to sleep.

 If I wanted Malaysian weather I would have moved tgere with Red Smile
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Apr 2017 at 7:03pm

Current satellite loop shows the trough deepening over SA, and the cold front is still well to the South. this rain is intensifying as it moves South, because it is encountering cooler air.

This is nothing compared to tomorrow afternoon, once this thing gets cranking tomorrow we are going to see it explode. By the morning these two systems will be touching, tomorrow we will see widespread cold cored thunderstorms as response through much of Southern Vic, and even the lower SE of SA.

The rain in SW Victoria is very heavy, and I think this system is going to exceed expectations by some margin, because models are not seeing what will happen when the upper trough gets up and hits this cloud mass.



Edited by Gay3 - 24 Apr 2017 at 7:06pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Go Flash Go Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Apr 2017 at 9:09pm
Gee l'm glad l don't go to the footy anymore ....  hope a lightning bolt hits the football  Smile
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Aug 2017 at 6:39pm
In case some of you do forward form off noms. Looks like it could be wet for next weekends' Ballarat jump program which should suit most if not spectators.
A.V. Weather:
It (model) is also continually ramping up Victorian and SE SA rainfall, this is now going to be a very wet 10 days, before we see a bit of a dry spell for a week or so to end August.
So no changes, a really wet sequence to come, a massive cold burst is likely next Friday in Vic and Southern NSW, then a bit of a drier week in a fortnight.

Ballarat:

Week 1,    August 11th – August 18th

Showers and cold fronts continue in Southern Victoria

Short wave troughs move through regularly, with showers with each one.

On Tuesday a major trough develops in SA and moves into Victoria

Widespread showers develop again on Thursday as another trough moves through.

Rainfall : 15 – 25 mm

Forecast Confidence :   Very High




Edited by Gay3 - 12 Aug 2017 at 6:43pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rosscoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Aug 2017 at 7:03pm
Meanwhile Brisbane is going to experience summer temps next week!

Tmw - 26
Mon - 26
Tues - 28
Wed - 30
Thurs - 30
Fri      - 27

Current Stable - Soul Star & Adivinar + Lady Vega
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Aug 2017 at 9:57pm
Here I am in underwear only .    What a climate this Brisbane has.

This global warming puts a lustre on your cluster.

Affects the memory a little . >>>     Which reminds me ,    I must turn off the bluddy heater.














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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Nov 2017 at 9:38am
Bit of weather on it's way? 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dizzy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Nov 2017 at 9:44am
May get a bit damp.
 

Friday 1 December

Summary
Min 22
Max 26
Heavy thundery rain.
Possible rainfall: 20 to 60 mm
Chance of any rain: 95%

Melbourne area

Cloudy. Very high (95%) chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm. Heavy falls possible. Winds northerly 20 to 30 km/h becoming light in the late afternoon.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 12 [Extreme]

Saturday 2 December

Summary
Min 17
Max 21
Rain. Possible heavy falls.
Possible rainfall: 20 to 50 mm
Chance of any rain: 95%

Melbourne area

Cloudy. Very high (near 100%) chance of rain. The chance of a thunderstorm in the morning and afternoon. Heavy falls possible. Winds southerly 15 to 20 km/h turning southwesterly 15 to 25 km/h during the evening.

Sun protection recommended from 8:50 am to 5:10 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 11 [Extreme]

Sunday 3 December

Summary
Min 15
Max 19
Rain. Possible heavy falls.
Possible rainfall: 15 to 35 mm
Chance of any rain: 95%
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Nov 2017 at 9:46am
Channel 9 are saying there could be up to 300mm over the weekend 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dizzy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Nov 2017 at 9:50am
And we all believe the press..... 
Although the above is only the Melbourne forecast - other areas are expecting higher rainfall.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Nov 2017 at 9:52am
I was talking to a bloke the other day who said the unusual rainy spring in SE Qld of 2017 reminded him of the months leading up to the 1974 Brisbane flood. I marvelled at his memory, but he might be right.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Nov 2017 at 9:58am

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST


Severe Weather Warning

for HEAVY RAINFALL

For people in Central, East Gippsland, Mallee, South West, Northern Country, North Central, North East, West and South Gippsland and Wimmera Forecast Districts.

Issued at 11:06 am Thursday, 30 November 2017.

HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THURSDAY

A large high pressure system near New Zealand continues to direct a hot and humid northeasterly airstream over Victoria. A trough of low pressure crossing the Bight will reach western Victoria late today then become slow moving. A low pressure system will develop on the trough over northwestern Victoria on Friday then drift slowly southeastwards over the weekend. Milder, less humid southerly winds will develop behind the low, as a new high pressure system forms in the Bight.

HEAVY RAIN and SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS which may lead to FLASH FLOODING are likely to develop in the far west during TONIGHT before extending across the remaining parts of the State during FRIDAY. The heavy rain and thunderstorm activity will continue on SATURDAY.

Three day totals of around 100-200mm are expected acoss most of northern and central regions of the State. Elsewhere totals are likely to be between 30 and 100mm. Over the northeast ranges totals may exceed 250mm.

Locations which may be affected include Mildura, Horsham, Warrnambool, Bendigo, Shepparton, Seymour, Maryborough, Ballarat, Geelong, Melbourne, Wodonga, Wangaratta, Traralgon and Bairnsdale.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should: 
* Don't walk, ride or drive through flood water; 
* Keep clear of creeks and storm drains; 
* Be aware that in fire affected areas, rainfall run-off into waterways may contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks; 
* Be alert that in areas recently affected by fires, heavy rainfall increases the potential for landslides and debris across roads; 

The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 5:00 pm AEDT Thursday.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDV21037.shtml

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Nov 2017 at 10:14am
Max - Barwon Heads VIC says:

Is there potential for it to be as big as the Dec 2003 storm in Melbourne that was considered a ‘once in a hundred years’ storm? Seems like we average these every 7-8 years but the media (and BoM) forget the previous big event…

Hi Max, that was different, that was a huge storm event that went through, and then after it was all done we had sea breeze convergence at 11 pm kick off even bigger storms in the Melbourne area.

This one will be similar to Feb 1 2005, a huge cut off formed after dragging down heaps of tropical moisture and bombing the low over West Gippsland, and then the wrap around gave Melbourne and the Otways litres of rain over night with widespread gales. I still maintain we went through a Category 1 cyclone equivalent that night. This one will be similar to that.

In case anyone's needing to prepare, this is the AV estimate for this event in Vic. He did cover the other States if anyone wants them.

Here is the overall picture from the EC, a huge event and also good rain with the trough in QLD too

So given this, here is the latest forecasts for you, I think the main change is now Central and West Gippsland are now firmly in the gun if the low bombs off the Victorian coast.

Mallee : 50 – 70 mm, possible falls to 100 mm.

Wimmera : 45 – 70 mm

SW Vic : 35 – 60 mm

Central Vic : 75 – 130 mm, higher on the ranges.

Northern Vic : 50 – 100 mm

North Central : 60 – 100 mm, higher on the ranges.

NE Vic : 150 – 300 mm – Major flood potential

West Gippsland : 100 – 200 mm – Major Flood Potential

East Gippsland : 150 – 300 mm – Major Flood likely.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Nov 2017 at 10:17am
Hope the baby goats have got wellies Shocked
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shawy38 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Nov 2017 at 10:22am
All the local farmers are out in force today trying to salvage as much crop as they can before it gets destroyed
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 Jan 2018 at 10:47am
I so dislike extremes Disapprove


Feels Like
12.0°C

And for Tassie Ouch

Snow follows summer heat as Tasmanian weather lives up to reputation for extremes

12:27 EDT

It is common knowledge in Tasmania to keep a coat in the car, as the weather can swing wildly from sunstroke to shivering faster than you can say "isn't this supposed to be summer?" The state's reputation for was in evidence again on Wednesday, with Hobartians reaching for the doonas during an overnight minimum of 9 degrees Celsius, just days after an overnight low of 23.9C on Monday morning broke the record for highest minimum January temperature.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Mar 2018 at 9:05am
Finally after 6wks of no rain whatsoever in B'rat (5mls in Feb for the pedantic), Hughie is sending it down & has been since 8.30 Big smile
I near killed myself Thursday, weed spraying, fertilising & hand broadcating pasture seed on 2 acres, in the hope http://avweather.net would be correct in his repeated posts that this system would give more than predicted, as without his insistence, I wouldn't have risked wasting such an expense given the WZ forecast of 5-10mm Sat/Sun which frequently results in us missing out.
Looks like another hour to go which may well give us around an inch of steady, soaking stuff. Too wet to check now tho' LOL
What chance Mornington to get thru'? Wink

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Mar 2018 at 10:03am
" Quote" I nearly killed myself yesterday,..not another fatal Gay3.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Dec 2018 at 8:12am
At long, long last, some meaningful rain Big smile Big smile Big smile & better still after our few rounds had dried enough to be bales & shedded late yesterday arvo in a do or die exercise as it had had already had 11mm since mowing & several body breaking, manual windrow turnings with our hand made wooden rakes Ouch Similar to below but light steel braces.




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Dec 2018 at 10:01am
So wet I have not been able to drive to my favourite coffee spot. My car is not designed for floating 
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