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ExceedAndExcel View Drop Down
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    Posted: 31 May 2018 at 4:59pm
Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

CrownBet AFL promo this round double your winnings on all matches. Max stake $25. Back all the outsiders then back the favourites with another book. Easy money.



Back the favourite with books with promos on the same game (within reason) for added EV. Eg UBET lead at half time and lose get real money back up to $50. UBET have the best price on several of the favourites this round so good to utilise, particularly if you have access to multiple accounts.




Promo is back again for every game in round 10 this week. Was worth just over $100 per account in risk free profit last round so get on again for some more cash.




All games again this weekend. 2 of the games are not playable due to the favourites being <1.05. Still, 7 games will net circa $90 profit per account.

Also the same promo for 3 NRL games but double winnings in bonus bet instead of cash. Makes it less lucrative. I’m just backing the outsider with Crownbet then backing the favourite elsewhere to break even rather than to win with both options. $30 max bet here.


Promo also on the NBA finals game 1 for the first basket scorer max bet $25. The market % will be too high for it to be profitable backing the other 9 starters elsewhere. If there’s a market on Betfair then lay whatever player you back to lock in a profit. Presume this one will be repeated for all games in the series.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 May 2018 at 9:43pm
Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

CrownBet AFL promo this round double your winnings on all matches. Max stake $25. Back all the outsiders then back the favourites with another book. Easy money.



Back the favourite with books with promos on the same game (within reason) for added EV. Eg UBET lead at half time and lose get real money back up to $50. UBET have the best price on several of the favourites this round so good to utilise, particularly if you have access to multiple accounts.




Promo is back again for every game in round 10 this week. Was worth just over $100 per account in risk free profit last round so get on again for some more cash.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 May 2018 at 6:13am
Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

CrownBet AFL promo this round double your winnings on all matches. Max stake $25. Back all the outsiders then back the favourites with another book. Easy money.



Back the favourite with books with promos on the same game (within reason) for added EV. Eg UBET lead at half time and lose get real money back up to $50. UBET have the best price on several of the favourites this round so good to utilise, particularly if you have access to multiple accounts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 May 2018 at 4:06am
CrownBet AFL promo this round double your winnings on all matches. Max stake $25. Back all the outsiders then back the favourites with another book. Easy money.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Apr 2018 at 10:34am
Crownbet have an AFL promo on ALL games this round. Back the winner in the H2H market and get $6 in bonus bets for every goal kicked by their top goal scorer. Min bet is $10. Just back all the favourites. It would take an extraordinary result for this not to be profitable.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Red Hare Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 Jan 2018 at 1:35pm
Originally posted by Sneck Sneck wrote:

The Fold.

I'd advise that you watch the race whilst monitoring betfair inplay, if it's in a bad spot and the odds are over the betfair SP you might want to fold.

An easy system that I can think off which will definitely show a long term profit is to back horses who you predict will lead, if they don't control in the lead you can fold. Make sure your leader has a "clean eye" you want the second horse outside lead to not put on much pressure. The ideal scenario is the horse sitting outside lead is a longshot and leaves the leader alone. Keep an eye on betfair inplay, you'll see leaders who are traveling well and in control of the race trade significantly shorter in run.
A couple notes on this, from a former folder...

1. The basic tools are mobile app and race vision. You will want separate devices.

2. The difference between online streaming and 'live' TV is approximately 10 seconds. That's the best part of a furlong. I've got no idea what the gap between TV and being there in person.

3. Don't expect to get much more than $400 on foldable. 

4. As a general rule, the timer runs out between the 600 and 400 - regardless of race distance.

5. If you have access to multiple accounts, don't be a wally and use similar user names or passwords.

Good luck. It's a ripper promotion.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 Jan 2018 at 10:47am
Originally posted by Sneck Sneck wrote:

Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

The expected loss on a $25 bet is much less than the EV of the bonus bet
This is the correct logic when thinking about bonus bets such as this.




There are many promos I exploit which rely on exactly the same logic. I am more than happy to lose a few dollars only to convert the resulting bonus bet into many times more dollars. If I can guarantee the small loss by removing the variance (which I can on almost all of them) even better.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sneck Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 Jan 2018 at 10:42am
Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

The expected loss on a $25 bet is much less than the EV of the bonus bet
This is the correct logic when thinking about bonus bets such as this.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 Jan 2018 at 10:33am
Good thread.

UBET run their Stats Superstar promo from time to time on different sports (currently the BBL each game day and NBA each Wednesday).

Basically they nominate a player, you place a bet on any game from the particular comp that day (>1.5 price, min $25 bet) and you receive the number the player scores as a bonus bet. Eg today’s NBA player is Damien Lillard. If he scores 25pts they give you a $25 bonus bet).

The expected loss on a $25 bet is much less than the EV of the bonus bet you will receive so if you want to play it straight out you will be ahead.

There are better ways to exploit this promo but will not get into the details currently.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sneck Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 Jan 2018 at 10:31am
Freebets

Because you don't receive your stake back when using a freebet the longer the odds you take the less value you lose.

Example:
1. $100 at 2.00 pays $200 whilst 100freebet at 2.00 pays $100 (you lost 50% value)
2. $100 at 11.00 pays $1100 whilst 100freebet at 11.00 pays $1000 (you lost 10% of value)

It may be worth sacrificing some value if the freebet amounts to a significant proportion of your bankroll, perhaps a 100% deposit bonus that can't be split. But remember that part of the reason that bookmakers give away freebets is because they know gamblers won't take advantage.  If you can split the freebet into an amount you are comfortable with I'd recommend that.

If you are unsure of what to bet I'd recommend the following: Open betfair and look at the market near post time focusing on horses around double figure odds. Back horses that are trading around the same price on betfair as your bookmaker, this means you're not getting expied by their market percentage.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sneck Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 Jan 2018 at 10:09am
The Fold.

I'd advise that you watch the race whilst monitoring betfair inplay, if it's in a bad spot and the odds are over the betfair SP you might want to fold.

An easy system that I can think off which will definitely show a long term profit is to back horses who you predict will lead, if they don't control in the lead you can fold. Make sure your leader has a "clean eye" you want the second horse outside lead to not put on much pressure. The ideal scenario is the horse sitting outside lead is a longshot and leaves the leader alone. Keep an eye on betfair inplay, you'll see leaders who are traveling well and in control of the race trade significantly shorter in run.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sneck Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 Jan 2018 at 9:55am
I intend for this to be thread to be somewhat of a resource as to how one should go about taking advantage of betting promotions.

Taking advantage of promotions is probably one of the easiest ways a gambler can go from being a small loser to a small winner.

Feel free to ask any questions. I don't actively look for promotions so if there's one you're interested in post it here and I'll take a look.


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