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Horse Of The Year betting

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Hot2Trot View Drop Down
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    Posted: 16 Mar 2011 at 1:59pm
IAS have a market on the HOTY.
 
Black Caviar $1.33
So You Think $2.80
More Joyous $31.00
Sepoy $61.00
Any Other $101
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andynr123 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote andynr123 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2011 at 2:01pm
Actually, that market makes me realise how lucky we have it this year.

If any of these four had done the deeds they have done this year in 2009/2010, they would have beaten Typhoon Tracy.

In fact, if any of these four had done their deeds in any other year, they would have won a majority of races.

Our 3yos may be poor, but we have some real nice horses.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Wortel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2011 at 2:02pm

I'm sorry but G1 sprints don't compare to the Cox plate.

BC would have to win 3 more G1s.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote shadow role Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2011 at 2:04pm
get on the $2.80 then!
'you are...what you think ..you are'
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Wortel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2011 at 2:05pm
I wouldn't bet that either as BC could win it anyway even if she isn't as good in my opinion.

It's not my opinion that counts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Browndog Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2011 at 2:09pm
Carpenter declared BC after last week
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote saintly96 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2011 at 2:40pm
BC a certainty.

As for Andy's comments that Sepoy would have won HOTY on TT's year, that made me laugh.

At a stretch MJ may have (although she is still one G1 win and a couple of G2 placings short at present, but still has time to get the G1 or 2).

It is a shame that SYT will never win a HOTY title in Australia, but hopefully he will fly the flag for us internationally (although I have my doubts he will be a major success overseas, but I hope I am wrong).
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2011 at 3:01pm
You are correct Wortel in thatit is not best horse that always gets the award as Media types have their own favs.
 
Just like the Oscars or the Brownlow or whatever the award which is selected by a specific group, always comes down to opinions.
 
If you asked punters if Typhoon Tracy deserved that award last year 90% would of said no.
 
I am with you on your assessment as well. Black Caviar needs to win in sydney and brisbane and over 1400m or 1350 to be within shout of Barts marauder. 
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2011 at 3:04pm
This year is certainly a good year.  Thumbs Up

Now last season, Who were the contenders ? If Typhoon Tarcy was not the Horse of the Year who should it have been ?

I can not recall the contenders.




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reductio ad absurdum

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VaDiM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2011 at 3:06pm
Originally posted by VOYAGER VOYAGER wrote:

You are correct Wortel in thatit is not best horse that always gets the award as Media types have their own favs.
 
Just like the Oscars or the Brownlow or whatever the award which is selected by a specific group, always comes down to opinions.
 
If you asked punters if Typhoon Tracy deserved that award last year 90% would of said no.
 
I am with you on your assessment as well. Black Caviar needs to win in sydney and brisbane and over 1400m or 1350 to be within shout of Barts marauder. 
 
Saying BC needs to win at 1400m is like saying SYT needs to win at 1000m, absoloutely rediculous comment.................really way off the mark
R.I.P Whobegotyou my little mate
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Winning Run Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2011 at 3:13pm
Couldn't agree more Vad.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2011 at 3:15pm
Agree Vadim.


STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2011 at 3:30pm
Why is it a ridiculous remark?
 
She is quite clearly the best galloper in the country at the moment but has everyone of her performances shown  a different aspect to her capabilities.
 
So You Think over 1400m up to 2000m (both leading and coming from behind, sitting back or forward).
 
He dominated what every person in the country last spring was saying were the best 4 gallopers in the nation in WBGY, Zipping, Shoot Out and More Joyous all multiple group 1 winners.
 
He ran  a great race at handicaps when outside his comfort zone for 3rd in the Melbourne Cup.
 
And he won 4 group 1's without raising a sweat just as easy as Black Caviar has won her races.
 
He did not win outside Melbourne which is his only flaw in my view.
 
Now Black Caviar has done everything he has but she has won a handicap against all past records and so from my perspective she now has to only win at a distance that she has never won at (and if she beat More Joyous in the All Aged that would even be better) and she needs to win outside Melbourne.
 
If you like her for the HOTY title I am not going to argue with you and as I have said the award is based on opinion.
 
But to say she is over the line because she has won the majority of her races with an advantage of the wfa weight allowance and against a group of horses who are good and group 1 quality but clearly are not in her league (none are being called the best gallopers in the nation) is to quote someone, just ridiculous.
 
I am not saying SYT will win, I am just saying why I would atm be voting for SYT. 
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Marky Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2011 at 3:31pm
Sepoy is a good bet
BD G1
SS G2
GS G1
SP G1
CS G1
TJ G1

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2011 at 3:52pm
Sprinters are very rarely called the best gallopers in the land, for good reason, they are only quarter horse stayers.

But what she is doing over the whole season, not just the spring is quite phenomenal. Nothing is in her league at a sprint distance just as nothing was in So You Thinks league over 2000m. But there is always far more depth in sprinting in this country.

To dominate in the manner that she has is extra extra extraordinary. It is beyond comprehension.

We have been spoiled this season, that is for sure.

 


STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Phantom Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2011 at 3:57pm
Best price Black caviar will be in any event she competes in from here on in...Take it!!
The More You Put On, The More You Get Back
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ianb Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2011 at 4:16pm
Sepoy will be HOTY if he wins Golden Slipper, last to do the double was Bounding Away in 1986
current stable...Giuliani.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MannyG Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2011 at 4:20pm
Not trying to be a smart arse, but Courtza in 89 won both :P
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2011 at 4:22pm
Look can we just have this nonsense about Sepoy being a great horse and in line to win HOTY honours stopped right here.
 
If he wins the award it will be because every person who has voted has been given a weeks all expense paid, holiday in Dubai in that sail hotel on the water in the royal suite with $100,000 spending money. 
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2011 at 4:23pm
Mind you knowing how eagerly the racing media is to take some freebies that would not be out of the question.
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hot2Trot Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2011 at 5:45pm
Originally posted by Phantom Phantom wrote:

Best price Black caviar will be in any event she competes in from here on in...Take it!!
 
That's a very good point!  Betting on her to win HOTY is probably the best value around for BC. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hot2Trot Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2011 at 5:47pm
If you don't mind having your money tied up for months.Unhappy
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote well_rated Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2011 at 8:05pm
how are they betting on this? most of the voters are mug punters who work in the press
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Nocturnal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2011 at 8:09pm
I took 1.50 Hussler winning 3 months out , happy to take 1.33 now , best return you will get on your money short term
The only problem with backing winners ? You never have enough on....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2011 at 8:36pm
Very interesting discussion playing out here. I find myself agreeing with you all.
 
I am a racing purist so I'm the first to say that the Cox Plate is the test for Australia's greatest WFA horse. I would suggest that in the context of HOTY, the Cox Plate winner is ahead of the game from the get go.
 
Now, when you consider that the Cox Plate winner this season was SYT and all he achieved, it would be almost impossible to see him beaten in HOTY.
 
But then, Black Caviar is a freak. It all depends on what she does for the rest of this prep. However the ball is in her court. I wouldn't begrudge her the title if she cleans up the McNeil and TJ Smith. Her Newmarket win, considering all broken records, was arguably as good, if not better, than anything SYT achieved in the spring.
 
The racing purist in me says that the horses who defy history and weight in the big handicaps are those who are truly great horses to compare favourably across any era. Black Caviar did that in the Newmarket.
 
To diminish that achievement against a Cox Plate win is just crazy. To suggest Black Caviar needs to win a Group 1 at a distance outside of her optimum is also silly. But I see Voyager's point. The Sunlines, Kingston Towns et al were special beasts considering they could win Group 1s at such a diverse distance range.
 
But how is that relevant to SYT? He has only won Group 1s between 1800m and 2040m. Bring him back to win a Group 1 Manikato (1200m) like Sunlike did and then I'll add him to such illustrious company.
 
One question: if SYT was to win, who accepts the trophy? What a farce if Coolmore's reps do!
Sunline...simply supreme
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Afros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2011 at 8:45pm
Here's one on Sepoy, not saying this will happen, but say he comes out and wins this weekend, wins the slipper, so Darley say stuff it, keep going he still looks good, so he goes on and wins the Sires and Champagne, surely this would make it an interesting decision? On one hand we would have a sprinter of the ability not seen, but on the other hand, how many 2yo's would finish their season with 4G1's in the bag?

I doubt he will be able to stay up and in form for long enough to do all that, but if he was enough of a freak to be able to...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2011 at 8:47pm
If he wins the Slipper by 8, why would he not take on the great mare in the T.J.Smith ?


STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Marky Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2011 at 8:47pm
They got it wrong last year and I hope they won't again.

Australian Racing journalists are the laziest in the profession who are out of touch with the public. "Black Caviaaaaaaar" spewed out at the corners of Bruce Clarks mouth fifty times last Saturday. What did she beat?

Marky's HOTY requirements:

1. Winning multiple G1s including one of the BLUE RIBBON G1s (The Slams are Golden Slipper, Doncaster, Caufield Cup, Cox Plate, Melbourne Cup) SYT was ahead here 2 Cox Plates, 3rd Melbourne Cup.

2. Winning against quality opposition. SYT again, as Voyager mentioned smashed the best Australia had offered and performed credibly against the world betters (Americain and the rest)

3. The ability to stretch one's limit - ie to perform outside one's comfort zone. SYT again 2040m, 2000m to 3200m.

4. Courage and fair play. SYT again. Brave horse who takes the fight and he's chances. Can lead, sit back - takes control.

5. Most of all has to be loved by the public. SYT again coming back to scale from the run in the Plate says it all compared to the lousy 24,000 odd to what "history" last weekend. There'll be less at the William Read. We don't want horses who just play the game, they are worse than the cats imo.

Step up and run in the Doncaster BC and stop this shameless gloating over your underachievement.

If SYT does not win. Hey champ, I would rather be under acknowledged that OVER RATED spoiled princess.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2011 at 8:50pm
Oh and the horse should not be trained by Peter Moody - Marky.


STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote here he is... craig Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2011 at 8:51pm
Originally posted by Phantom Phantom wrote:

Best price Black caviar will be in any event she competes in from here on in...Take it!!
 
On a totally different note, Phantom, it is good to see that you have embraced a real champion as your signature now.
 
On the HOTY, if Black Caviar wins the W.Reid and TJ Smith, then she will certainly get the award by a clear margin. The thing with voting is that people tend to forget. She is right here, right now, which is enournously in her favour.
 
My actual opinion is that if she was to win those two, I would sit on the fence, and say that she draws level with SYT. If she were somehow able to go to QLD and win one there, then her longevity of performance over the season would get her over the line with me.
 
Of course, this is all hypothetical. She may not have those runs left in her. At least its a bit more interesting than Typhoon Tracy vs Starspangledbanner.
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