Tom Melbourne

The only bet in Melbourne this weekend.

I hope not. I'm with you there.

Tom is the weak link in that treble. Pemberley, Observational & Dandy Gent are all worthy of respect.

He maybe good winner Sat, spruik has probably gone fair bit ahead of him though.

Days of Caulfield Cup being won by whacker with nice weight seem to have moved on bit.

He will have to improve hell of lot between campaigns to be a genuine Caulfield Cup hope IMO.

Not sure what to make of the form out of Albury, but I'm inclined to think it is awful, the margins flattering, and fairly meaningless, other than to say he appears to handle the wet.

Not seen the race, but apparently was a Heavy 10, and he was so far in front but so erratic, he was able to be pulled up and virtually walk over the line.

First run on a wet track - might just be a superior wet tracker?

The time was nothing special - 8.9 seconds outside the record - the 2400m BM63 was only 9.9 sec outside that record.

His wet track ability may also appear better than it is, when considering that the remainder of the field has a combined record on Heavy tracks of 31:1-4-2 ... so he may have just struck a bunch of wet track duffers ... the margins suggest that is the case.

Not sure how good the 2nd horse is, but not much on face value - unplaced behind some plodders in the Corowa Cup previous, and best win of 3 is a 1200m Cootamundra BM60???

3rd was the mighty Hippopus, who I suggest is down there en route to the 'bool, but was coming off a surprise Canberra Cup win ... he's far from consistent these days.

Don't believe this race enhances his form, and though the previous win was good, not sure it was good enough to have him so far ahead of a couple of the other hopes on Saturday.

In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!

the last thing I took from that race was that he appreciated the wet track lol. Never seen a win like it. there are some nice formlines from his prior wins, I'll be all over him Sat

He's a gelding. He can not be too serious a horse.

reductio ad absurdum

http://racing.racingnsw.com.au/InteractiveForm/HorseFullForm.aspx?HorseCode=NDYxMTA2OTQ0&src=horsesearch

option should be there to watch the full race or final 400m

Observational to be more positive early. At least makes a race of it.

Red Hare wrote:

Observational to be more positive early. At least makes a race of it.

I'm already on.

Liked the last 2 runs - both much stronger and higher rating races than anything Tom M's run in, and the 2400m would seem ideal 3rd up.

He was out of his depth, but did race against Snow Sky and Postponed in UK, so some pretence to class.

Good to hear he will be closer - Mujadale will put the acid on Tom M, and a couple of others could also go forward (Don Doremo, Adirondack, Tunes, Tuscan Fire) , so there will be no loafing and a true staying test. The wobble that Tom had at the end of his last race is a concern.

Observational and Big Memory will have the drop on them all if they show any weakness in the last 100m - taking that quinella too.

Lucky Lucky Lucky's form through Sir John Hawkwood looks good now and he's the roughie for me.

Good luck to all who are with him, and Tom Melbourne could well have lengths on them all and be a genuine Caulfield Cup contender. No value at $2.30 now!!!

In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!

Ploddalong De Plod is no star.

Ridden like an Oakleigh Plater with 50kg doesn't help.

The other two horses on the speed tailed off as well. Big Memory was a great run given he did the donkey work.

he was pretty disappointing today, but I'm sure he's still learning to be a racehorse.

There will be suitable Spring races for him to target, such as the Heatherlie Hcp & the Coongy Hcp.

I was thinking that 'more positive' was going to be 'midfield, no worse than 5L off the lead - as opposed to last' not what eventuated today.

Isaac soloman wrote:

I think the the race record was broken by 4 seconds. If that is right the horse was entitled to fail and sack the jockey. Havnt seen the stewards report but at one point he looked really uncomfortable in his action and was hanging badly.

Initially that's what I understood the remark to mean but he finished with something like "but they didn't seem to be dawdling" so I realised they must've been 4 secs slower than the record Smile

Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!