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Timeform - Battaash is as good as Vain

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3blindmice View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 2:27pm
"Superstar" after 1 G1 win in France. Says it all really.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 2:30pm
Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

"Superstar" after 1 G1 win in France. Says it all really.

I know a few superstars that have never won a group 1.

To be dismissive of 1 group 1 win shows how much disrespect we have for high level horse racing. 




STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 2:38pm
Originally posted by djebel djebel wrote:

Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

"Superstar" after 1 G1 win in France. Says it all really.

I know a few superstars that have never won a group 1.

To be dismissive of 1 group 1 win shows how much disrespect we have for high level horse racing. 




Define superstar?Shocked
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 2:41pm
A bloody good racehorse. 


STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

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The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 2:43pm
Bataash has incredible ability, However he is very quirky and unreliable. I am sure Timeform will add one of their squiggles indicating ungenuine or unreliable. 


STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

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The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 2:45pm
By Simon Rowlands — published 24th June 2014

Simon Rowlands analyses the numbers behind the symbol, and how they could alter your betting for the better.

Over the decades, Timeform has been inadvertently responsible for altering some aspects of the racing lexicon, for better or worse.

There is the Timeform “p” (indicating the likelihood of improvement on a rating) and "large P” (indicating the likelihood of considerable improvement, or considerable disappointment, depending on the outcome), the use of the word “penultimate” in a largely non-ironic setting, and a predilection for a frequent-overuse-of-hyphen style seen nowhere else in the English-speaking world.

Perhaps the most famous, or infamous, example of this contribution to the common parlance is the “Timeform squiggle”. Or, in racing vernacular, “The Dreaded Timeform Squiggle”.

Early editions of Timeform’s Racehorses annuals backed up a “§” (squiggle) attached to a horse’s rating with some inflammatory language, such as “an arrant rogue” and “refuses to do his best”.

That was all a bit subjective, not to say potentially litigious, even though, as Timeform’s founder Phil Bullobserved, “you can’t libel a horse, brother”.

The definition of a squiggle was changed about 20 years ago to “unreliable (for temperamental or other reasons)”. Timeform is primarily concerned with effects – not their causes – then: a squiggle indicates unpredictability, not what causes that unpredictability.

There have been some notable recipients of the Timeform squiggle over the years, including Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Bregawn, King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes runners-up Norse Dancer and Papal Bull, Champion Hurdle second Harchibald and top-class jumper Tidal Bay (“a reformed character”, or “we got it wrong”: either way, he no longer has a squiggle).

This may all seem rather academic for a blog which usually aims to look ahead, not back. So, in an attempt to justify my reputation as “the man who puts the anal into analysis”, I investigated the incidence of squiggle horses by-sire, the idea being that a high or low incidence should guide as to how little or how much to trust the offspring of such sires, especially when little else is known about the offspring in question.

The following are extracts of the “best” and “worst” sires, with the data taken from all Flat racing in Britain and Ireland in 2011 to 2013 inclusive. The figures are for individual horses which had pre-race §s on their ratings at least once in that period (the overall incidence of such horses was just under 3% in the entire horse population) and only sires with 70 or more individual runners were considered (there were 112 of them).

In addition, and in recognition that applying squiggles can still be subjective, even if the terminology is much less so these days, I formed a “gameness index”, taken as the ratio of wins to seconds for a sire’s offspring in the same period. The idea is that a certain genetic reluctance to battle when the chips are down might be reflected in a tendency to finish second rather than first.

There are some familiar names in the “Hall of Shame”. Most people with an opinion on this matter already will not be surprised to see the likes of MontjeuHawk Wing and Fasliyev high up the list of sires by incidence of squiggle. 

What was news, to me at least, was that Shamardal had an unblemished record as the sire of a large number of squiggle-free horses. But that is nothing compared to the shock of seeing Antonius Pius in that list of sires whose offspring escaped the squiggle treatment.

Antonius Pius was a dodgepot himself, failing to win after his two-year-old season and earning both a squiggle and the sobriquet “Antonius Pigus” at Timeform. Some of his offspring in the 2011 to 2013 period got close to squiggles, but, rightly or wrongly, none of them suffered that ignominy. Like father, unlike son/daughter, in this instance.

At the top of the list of sires whose offspring have won a higher proportion of races than they have finished second in is the mighty Galileo, the pre-eminent sire of recent years. Galileo had nine squiggle horses from 435 individuals in the period under review (2.1%), which is only slightly better than average. But it seems that, when it came to a tight finish, his sons and daughters in general put their heads down and battled.

The finest breeding, best physique and most fastidious human care can only take a horse so far. What often separates the winners from the losers is a willingness to put it in when required, and to keep putting it in: mental toughness, as it were.

That is a thing well worth remembering when selecting your bets.  



STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 2:46pm
By Timeform — published 5th February 2014

A guide to the symbols you'll find in Race Passes and Timeform Race Cards

Abbreviations

The following symbols are used with (or sometimes in place of) Timeform Ratings.

pcommonly referred to as a small 'p'; the horse is likely to improve
Pcommonly referred to as a large 'P'; the horse is capable of much better
+the horse may be better than rated
?the rating is suspect or (used alone) the horse is out of form or cannot be assessed with confidence
§the 'Timeform squiggle'; the horse is unreliable (for temperamental or other reasons)
§§the 'double squiggle'; the horse is so unsatisfactory as to be not worth a rating
xa poor jumper
xxso bad a jumper as to be not worth a rating


STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 2:47pm
In anybodies language JOANNE was a superstar. She was the best sprinting mare of her era, Yet she never won a group 1 race. 


STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shrunk in the Wash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 4:32pm
Originally posted by Tontonan Tontonan wrote:



Timeform analyst contemplating the outcome of the Nunthorpe Stakes.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Miami Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 4:43pm
The English are desperate for another "superstar". This year has been a non-vintage year that's for sure and the Royal Ascot carnival was one of the most insipid in the last 50 years.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ThreeBears Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 4:44pm
Some English commentator last night pre-race said he thought Baattash was the world's best horse. What a complete joke that was


If that was Matt Chapman just ignore anything that comes out of his cavernous gob. He'd rival any of Australia's great radio winbags for BS factor and then some. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 5:02pm
Battaash is another Mr Harbourside Mansion. A pretender with a moderate record and sfa ticker. His name should never be mentioned among the great sprinters of the world.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tontonan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 7:00pm
A guide to the symbols you'll find in Race Passes and Timeform Race Cards
Abbreviations

The following symbols are used with (or sometimes in place of) Timeform Ratings.
p commonly referred to as a small 'p';  we are covering our arse just in case we have underrated the horse
P commonly referred to as a large 'P';   we have over rated this horse  
+ we have no idea what we are doing
? we do not have a farting clue.  
§ the 'Timeform squiggle';  The horse is making us look foolish
§§ the 'double squiggle';  We hate this farting horse

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ThreeBears Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 7:06pm
Highly accurate guide there Tonto LOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Atreus Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Aug 2018 at 6:31pm
There are horses which can produce huge peak ratings but then fail at other starts.  Hareeba was one such horse.  Battaash might be such a horse and so it failing most of the time does not by itself invalidate the Timeform rating for its peak run

Hartnell would be the best recent example in Australia.  Ran a huge race in the Turnbull but never got near that performance again.  Hartnell only got 128 from Timeform for that run while Battaash gets 136.  Most likely Hartnell and Battaash should have the same peak rating
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Miami Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Aug 2018 at 8:05pm
Yes I accept they can run a blinder but a 136 is criminal and shows their desperation.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Aug 2018 at 8:44pm
Originally posted by Atreus Atreus wrote:

There are horses which can produce huge peak ratings but then fail at other starts.  Hareeba was one such horse.  Battaash might be such a horse and so it failing most of the time does not by itself invalidate the Timeform rating for its peak run

Hartnell would be the best recent example in Australia.  Ran a huge race in the Turnbull but never got near that performance again.  Hartnell only got 128 from Timeform for that run while Battaash gets 136.  Most likely Hartnell and Battaash should have the same peak rating


I do not agree. Hareeba and Hartnell produced multiple high level performances. If one rating sticks out like dogs balls far above all other performances it can mean only one of 2 things- drugs or rating error.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Aug 2018 at 9:11pm
Unless that outlier performance occurs early in a career and is followed soon after by serious injury.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TJMitchell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Oct 2018 at 12:31pm
So the Worlds Best Sprinter gets rolled by a decent filly, a perennial runner up and a 2YO! Probably gets 131...


Also Enable wins her 2nd Arc but she didn't carry 61.5kg so I couldn't possibly rate her any higher than 107 /s 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote correctweight Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Oct 2018 at 10:39pm
Bataash should be set for the flat knacker or bat out of hell.
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