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Timeform - Battaash is as good as Vain

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Carioca View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Jun 2018 at 1:25pm
Originally posted by Carioca Carioca wrote:

Originally posted by djebel djebel wrote:

Originally posted by Carioca Carioca wrote:

ATM nature strip doesn't rate with me djebel, he's promising but underexposed imo.


He's had 8 starts, he's fully exposed.


Against what? anything of note.

The only thing exposed about this horse is he's a Grade 3 roarer, what's he even doing in this thread.
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Tlazolteotl View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Jun 2018 at 1:31pm
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by djebel djebel wrote:

Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

   In 2 races this season 2 horses have rated above Winx by way of the 2k allowance . ( Cliff Carey's) 1950's method)      Humidor & Happy Clapper .
Both Won their next suitable Race start.


Are these good arguments for Winx ?

What you are saying is, She has not been the best horse in those wins ?




No middle distance horse has ever put 25 wins together. Not easy.
Winx has been exposed to the unsuitable lead up sprints and overcome several vulnerable situations with sensational sectionals.
Her 4 wide run all the way in the last Cox Plate , took a Course Record to hold Humidor off.
Of course i'm not knocking the best we have seen .     I'm more pointing out there is very few Kilo's between Very good Horses.
I will probably start laying her in the next Cox Plate , at the stupid prices. ( to Trade of Course )
I'm expecting Kementari to come back a real force to be reckoned with in the Spring too.


$1.10 Winx in Winx Stakes is stupid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Jun 2018 at 5:25pm
I put this in the wrong thread


LOLOLOL ... Someone forgot to deduct the 2Y/O allowance from the ratings.

A 2 Y/O Group 1 in August in Australia has at least a 12k deduction from the Open G1 basic rating ....     So, from 21 , it is reduced to 9.
A 3 Y/O in August would be reduced by approx 6K .

NO ratings can give a 2 or 3 Y/O ( they are restricted Races )a rating above the Open WFA Scale.   ( unless they are performing in an open Race,
but in that case the weight carried would reduce their rating many K's )    
      
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Speediskey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Jun 2018 at 8:38pm
Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

Originally posted by djebel djebel wrote:

Harry Angel 26 and Blue Point 51 would be value if you knew they were coming.


While I don't rate them that highly I do think the Everest is wide open to foreign incursion in 2018 as the locals are not great at the Everest distance. With one possible exception- TA- I can never get a handle on him.

Sorry, but what exactly is this based on? The last three Group 1 winning horses over 1200m to race overseas as far as I can remember are Redkirk Warrior, Merchant Navy and Chautauqua, cumulatively winning both races the three contested. (Chaut in HK, Merchant Navy obviously last week.)

Where are the foreigners that would stand a chance based on that? Merchant Navy was an honest horse, but on exposed form here he would of seriously struggled to run top 6 in an Everest. His last two starts were a 3rd behind Redkirk and Brave Smash while getting weight relief, and a 3rd to Super Cash and Flamberge, who admittedly are good horses.. but not even close to being Everest calibre.

I would definitely say that over 1200 Redzel, Trapeze Artist, In Her Time are proven to be superior. Then to add to those I would definitely back Kementari/Shoals/English to be either better than him or at least up there.

I'm not saying that it's impossible a foreigner or two could come here and be competitive, but no way in the world could you argue Merchant Navy is even close to being our best sprinter and he travelled and beat them on their own turf, so what makes you think anything (at least from that region in the world) would have a hope of coming here and racing our best all at once?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JudgeHolden Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Jun 2018 at 9:10pm
Merchant Navy's run in the Newmarket was massive. Isolated in the middle of the track, a no go zone on the day, he just kept coming. He's a very strong horse over 1200- nowhere near some of our best in recent years, but easily up to our best right now.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Jun 2018 at 9:22pm
Well put Speedisky.
When restricted age, G1 winners are assessed .   It isn't automatic they will improve the (approx) expected WFA improvement of .5 K per month.
Some DO , MOST don't.
Where are the last 5 Slipper winners.

At age 7 we may find our great champion WINX meeting some rising 4 Y/Os who wont be easy beats ....   Kementari & Grunt to name just 2.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Jun 2018 at 9:32pm
Originally posted by JudgeHolden JudgeHolden wrote:

Merchant Navy's run in the Newmarket was massive. Isolated in the middle of the track, a no go zone on the day, he just kept coming. He's a very strong horse over 1200- nowhere near some of our best in recent years, but easily up to our best right now.


Yes Judge :-   I felt he would win the Diamond and I add I don't think it was as good as our Newmarket field .
Merchant Navy had a great handicap advantage in the Newmarket and was entitled to race well.    My doubts re RW was he is getting older, been everywhere and started racing at 2000m.   Did a wonderful job to win 2 Newmarkets & knock off Redzel. BUT nothing is forever.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ThreeBears Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Jun 2018 at 9:43pm
Of course i'm not knocking the best we have seen
Is that the Royal WE? I know you don't rate Camilla but ..... LOL
Well put Speedisky.
 
I'm calling for a stewards enquiry. Nothing he/she said was well put. Merchant Navy obviously improved on his form at Ascot with a big weight turnaround and beating of Redkirk Warrior. A point Speedy clearly neglected erroneously.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Jun 2018 at 10:16pm
Originally posted by ThreeBears ThreeBears wrote:


Of course i'm not knocking the best we have seen
Is that the Royal WE? I know you don't rate Camilla but ..... LOL
Well put Speedisky.
 
I'm calling for a stewards enquiry. Nothing he/she said was well put. Merchant Navy obviously improved on his form at Ascot with a big weight turnaround and beating of Redkirk Warrior. A point Speedy clearly neglected erroneously.


I would suggest the big factor in the turnaround is one is an improving 3 Y/O and the other starting to feel his age . Plus MN went North earlier to resume with a G2 win and was better prepared .     another was
RW drew the worst side of the track , while MN came down the best side.
Our Sprinters do shine overseas...   

Unexpected failures by RW are not new .   He is known for them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ThreeBears Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Jul 2018 at 12:33am
RW not known for failure fresh on straight tracks. The field size was not large enough to make the barrier an excuse. Age? Hmm. Frankie factor - not a great ride IMO.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Speediskey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Jul 2018 at 9:26am
He's known for being pretty crap anywhere but Flemington.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Jul 2018 at 10:05am
Originally posted by Speediskey Speediskey wrote:

He's known for being pretty crap anywhere but Flemington.


What are Ratings anyway ? ...        My explanation of them is :-    They were a method put together ( at a guess , say, over 100 years ago )
Where ( To quote the Cliff Carey writings )we assume, there is approx. 7lb ( 3K ) between the City classes .
Classes have changed somewhat from the old Novice , encourage , Trial ec to the now Benchmark style and you soon learn to adjust to them.
The main area's were more about the open class events from Welter 14K.
Open handicaps 18K Group 3 19K , G2 20K, G1 21K.   Plus any weigh carried over the imaginery limit of 50K.
The advice to the individuals judgement, was to adjust to any part of 2K ( up or down ) to suit their opinion of the strength of the Race.
( Of course Provincial and other "out of town events" were taken as at least 2K inferior to city tracks.
   When rating a race the basic rating should have been done at the time it was run.   The numerous variables are then examined ,    Track, Distance , rider , Stewards Reports , improvement , consistency or whatever else floats your boat.
The end result will be surprising at times and a good guide to "what to expect " in today's event is plain to see.
Believe me ...     It works well and sure beats our ill informed guesswork.
Regarding these "Timeform type delusions" about the so called champions,
It is usually BS.       Very little seperates champions , over the years.
     Even our Mighty WINX ( best I've seen ) has very few K's on many of the opposition she has met and will meet. Given certain circumstances.
That was obvious , when she met Happy Clapper & Kementari over 1500 at her second run last time in.   And when beating Humidor in last years Cox Plate.    
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote adolphus twirk Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Jul 2018 at 10:58am
Codswallop.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Jul 2018 at 11:04am
Originally posted by adolphus twirk adolphus twirk wrote:

Codswallop.


EXACTLY why your thinking has you a LOSER ( I'll take evens )

I get a steady income from the gamble.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Jul 2018 at 12:17pm
Timeform makes for a nice little library.



STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Jul 2018 at 12:42pm
I think the bottom line Djebel ,is that any method based on form and the variables will always give good money manager a chance.
PT once said that the more time spent on unbiased form study , results in you becoming luckier.      How the obvious jumps off the pages at you.
When people label something as "codswalop" without giving their reasoning for that assumption .    The story is obvious.
The many different methods used in rating , make for good reading , not to mention the benefits to our education on the subject.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Jul 2018 at 12:47pm
When you buy their annuals it is not really for the ratings, They are similar to out old Class Racehorses books that are no longer published. What a disappointment that is. 


STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Jul 2018 at 1:31pm
Originally posted by djebel djebel wrote:

When you buy their annuals it is not really for the ratings, They are similar to out old Class Racehorses books that are no longer published. What a disappointment that is. 


Some terrific Books and magazines have been written. The Cliff Carey's Racing Review has always been my favourite as it was my generations bible.
Don Scott ( never claimed originality ) but really put all his info together and changed the Punt forever .   I believe he sent many a Bookmaker into retirement by educating the public and he is probably the most famous of all.
   So many angles on the gamble and quite a few successful people about.
I believe we have some good judges on TBV for the various methods and usually willing to share their thoughts.
I note some from E/E on another thread . He leans to the Sports betting ( tennis No1 ) but is spot on and always tries to steer people in the right direction.
Too many Punters are complacent , quick to criticise others ( trying to help them )& blindly reject , what may well be beneficial.
Any PLAN is better than none.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Jul 2018 at 5:03pm
I'm working on a new punting system I call it the crash or crash through system. You pick one horse per year, put your entire bank on it. If it loses- no more bets that year. If it wins- no more bets that year. At the very least it saves you a lot of time.

I've test run it twice so far without putting any money on- $7.00 winner + $6.00 winner. Naturally.Wink Bastards. We all know what happens when I put money on.LOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Jul 2018 at 5:15pm
Bit like playing pool for Stakes as against a friendly, but I digress.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Jul 2018 at 5:31pm
Had a friend (since relocated to Melb) who knew someone whose wife did the same thing. Was showing a large profit apparently. He thought it was a good idea and wanted me to partner him. I declined. His first selection was SYT PLACE in the Melb Cup. Don't know whether he went all in or not.

I'm vague on the details now but there was a story some time back about an Wagga bloke, pensioner iirc, who saved up his pennies for a similar thing. Plonked it all (about $10k) on Racing To Win in the Doncaster. Family didn't mind because (again iirc) he was slowing dying of cancer and he didn't have other vices to spend his readies on. Won $60+K.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sneck Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Jul 2018 at 7:49pm
Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

I'm working on a new punting system I call it the crash or crash through system. You pick one horse per year, put your entire bank on it. If it loses- no more bets that year. If it wins- no more bets that year. At the very least it saves you a lot of time.

I've test run it twice so far without putting any money on- $7.00 winner + $6.00 winner. Naturally.Wink Bastards. We all know what happens when I put money on.LOL
This is actually the best system for a mug punter.
If they only pick one spot per year they might even be able to find a profitable one.
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Illogical nonsense to say the least.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sneck Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Jul 2018 at 8:58pm
Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

Illogical nonsense to say the least.
Wrong.
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Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

Illogical nonsense to say the least.



No it’s not.
The more bets a mug punter has the more certain it is that they will lose. One large bet per year and they will fluke a winning year once in a while. A thousand small bets per year and you can take it to the bank that they will lose year after year after year.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ThreeBears Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Jul 2018 at 9:21pm
I agree with Sneck and the other fella. Any mug can get lucky once. Just look at Millionare on Nine any night of the week.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Jul 2018 at 9:33pm
Being really selective ,   fewer bets on better class races that can be assessed on recent efforts.   Whether developing, value prices , Dutching, Trading, Laying , all part of the game .      Probably the most important part is self control & money management.
Exploiting the arbitage & bonus's out there ( as has been explained many times by E/E & others).
   IT IS POSSIBLE TO WIN . ......     Most don't want to.                   
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Jul 2018 at 10:32pm
Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

Illogical nonsense to say the least.



No it’s not.
The more bets a mug punter has the more certain it is that they will lose. One large bet per year and they will fluke a winning year once in a while. A thousand small bets per year and you can take it to the bank that they will lose year after year after year.
You need to look at the parameters better. A so called "mug punter" will, as you point out, "fluke" (supposedly) a win every now and again. Pick any number you want - one in twenty say - and that's the number of years it will take before they (possibly) score in the one big annual bet stakes. 

If you and others think it's a winning strategy why haven't you done it? After all these "mug punters" have FAR less chance of hitting the jackpot than some of the supposedly great punters on here who sing their own praises. The answer is obvious. Putting all your eggs in one basket is a high risk strategy
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Jul 2018 at 10:44pm
Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

Illogical nonsense to say the least.



No it’s not.
The more bets a mug punter has the more certain it is that they will lose. One large bet per year and they will fluke a winning year once in a while. A thousand small bets per year and you can take it to the bank that they will lose year after year after year.

You need to look at the parameters better. A so called "mug punter" will, as you point out, "fluke" (supposedly) a win every now and again. Pick any number you want - one in twenty say - and that's the number of years it will take before they (possibly) score in the one big annual bet stakes. 

If you and others think it's a winning strategy why haven't you done it? After all these "mug punters" have FAR less chance of hitting the jackpot than some of the supposedly great punters on here who sing their own praises. The answer is obvious. Putting all your eggs in one basket is a high risk strategy



Where did anyone say it was a winning strategy? Don’t recall reading that but if anyone did please feel free to point it out.

There is really no dispute that this kind of strategy provides a mug with a higher percentage chance of success ( note the words HIGHER CHANCE not GUARANTEED) simply because as the number of bets increases the actual result approaches expectation. Reduce the number of bets and all you’re left with is the variance. Simple probability.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jul 2018 at 12:06am
It was implied above by TBV's master punter. 

If having one big bet annually isn't a good strategy for a supposedly educated punter how would it be better for someone with (supposedly) a dartboard? 

You've baffled me with "maths" though and I'm a bit slow at times so you'll need to explain this "simple probability" you speak of.. 

I suggested that you could select an arbitrary win ratio for said "mug punter" but I'll do it for you. Say his dartboard chances are 1 in 10 (nice round fig). Feel free to demonstrate mathematically how his chances of success are higher for 1 or for 100 bets (or any number of bets for that matter). The probability of a head/tail on a two sided penny might be a good starting point.
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