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The Slow Factor

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linghi11 View Drop Down
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    Posted: 29 Aug 2017 at 1:38am
Saw something the other day about a factor in breeding that makes you 30 times more likely to breed/buy a slow horse and half the million dollar yearlings sold in the last 14 years have it? Any ideas what is being referred to? Thanks!
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diomed View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote diomed Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2017 at 4:26am
Hubris?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Flight Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2017 at 6:00pm
Originally posted by diomed diomed wrote:

Hubris?
 
Quite possibly a factor of all the hype........
 
Big smile
 
 
“The probability of a certain set of circumstances coming together in a meaningful (or tragic) way is so low that it simply cannot be considered mere coincidence. ”
― V.C. King
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Second Chance View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2017 at 6:30pm
Originally posted by linghi11 linghi11 wrote:

Saw something the other day about a factor in breeding that makes you 30 times more likely to breed/buy a slow horse and half the million dollar yearlings sold in the last 14 years have it? Any ideas what is being referred to? Thanks!

Suspect the highlighted text is what linghi11 is actually referring to.

ps a link to the source article would clearly assist.
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linghi11 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote linghi11 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2017 at 6:53pm
Originally posted by Second Chance Second Chance wrote:

Originally posted by linghi11 linghi11 wrote:

Saw something the other day about a factor in breeding that makes you 30 times more likely to breed/buy a slow horse and half the million dollar yearlings sold in the last 14 years have it? Any ideas what is being referred to? Thanks!

Suspect the highlighted text is what linghi11 is actually referring to.

ps a link to the source article would clearly assist.

you're correct SC! it was from a Goldmine mail-out so I am not sure if it's a real thing!

  1. Research paper : Identifying Superior v Under Performing
                                          Thoroughbreds utilising Goldmine's 4x4 profiles
        2. Million Dollar Yearlings : Why are most of them slow ?
        3. Double Dosing your mare : Is this the secret pattern of success ?
             
CALIFORNIA CHROME has this, so does PIERRO, SHE WILL REIGN, TAPIT
        4. DANEHILL Inbreeding - 2x3, 3x2, 3x3, 3x4,4x3, Male/Female strains,
            Quartile analysis. Which pattern is a disaster and which pattern
            is producing 12% SW/Runners ?

      

A highlight of the workshop is a presentation published by Dr Beth Miller who has written a research paper entitled Identifying Superior v Under Performing Thoroughbreds utilizing Goldmine's 4x4 profiles. The paper uses Goldmine's unique 4x4 profiling technology to provide a statistical analysis that identifies certain factors that increase and decrease the chances of breeding/buying a fast or slow horse. One factor increases your chances of breeding/buying a slow horse by 30times, and almost 50% of Million Dollar Yearlings sold in the past 14 years have this slow factor.

UPDATED CONCEPTS
 « DANEHILL Inbreeding : Deep Research, Generations, Sex Strains, Quartiles
             One pattern is terrible  and one pattern produces 12% SW/Runners ?
 «  GALILEO over which major sireline is showing a breathtaking 9% Gr1 Wnrs/Rnrs ?
        (and it is not over STORM CAT, that was last year's super cross!)
 «  REDOUTE’S CHOICE over which old school stallion is showing an amazing  6% Gr 1 Wnrs/Rnrs ?
 «  FASTNET ROCK over which major sireline is showing an incredible  4% Gr 1 Wnrs/Rnrs ?
        (and it is not over NUREYEV, that was last year's super cross)
 « Which major sireline is a disaster with SADLER'S WELL line mares ?
 « Which major sireline is a disaster with DANEHILL-line mares ?
 « Who is the best stallion in the world today ? TAPIT ? GALILEO ? WAR FRONT ? FASTNET ROCK ?
 « Are KINGMAMBO line mares the most potent in the world today ?
 « Inbreeding to full and 3/4 brothers is potent – Fact or Fallacy ?
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goldey View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote goldey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2017 at 6:55pm
I think i'm onto it !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote linghi11 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2017 at 7:13pm
Originally posted by goldey goldey wrote:

I think i'm onto it !


Pm?
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max manewer View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2017 at 7:18pm
I think he means he has cracked the formula for getting slow horses, but......?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote linghi11 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Aug 2017 at 8:52pm
Originally posted by max manewer max manewer wrote:

I think he means he has cracked the formula for getting slow horses, but......?
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diomed View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote diomed Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Oct 2017 at 2:20am
The term "30 times more likely" is a bit misleading.
My guess is they did a test on a very large number of horses.
group B were slower than group B, by a few ratings points, and they found that more of the B horses had the factor than group A.

I did a lot of work in January and February on inbreeding. 
If you apply a few filters to the data you can pull out horses with average ratings of 96+. 
Use other filters and you get horses averaging 85.
My guess is the negative factor is inbreeding to Northern Dancer that produces males.
You can get away with this if there is something else e.g. another line of Natalma.

I'm investigating other stuff as I might buy an inexpensive mare in the sales next month.  My idea is to test-mate all the mares in the catalogue with all the sires in IRE, GB, FR first.
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