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The Science of Pedigree Analysis

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brogers View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote brogers Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: The Science of Pedigree Analysis
    Posted: 06 Feb 2019 at 3:48am
I had the opportunity to write a short article in BlueBloods on the science that is behind pedigree analysis. Thought it would be worth reposting a copy of it here - download here
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Shrunk in the Wash View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shrunk in the Wash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Feb 2019 at 8:39am
Thanks Byron, a good read
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Feb 2019 at 9:14am
I will read that 4 or 5 times to hopefully take it all in, the one I did take from first reading it is that St Simon is not who we thought he was 🤔


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote brogers Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Feb 2019 at 12:40pm
Originally posted by djebel djebel wrote:

I will read that 4 or 5 times to hopefully take it all in, the one I did take from first reading it is that St Simon is not who we thought he was 🤔

Yes, or at least the sireline isnt what its supposed to be. There are efforts using Quarter Horses to see where the error exists as they have different branches of the same sireline developed.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote diomed Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Feb 2019 at 1:20am
First deep pedigree research was of no value because the records are flawed.
Now deep pedigree research is the path to follow.
Is there anything that breeders can use?

From my work on 159,222 colts, geldings, fillies.

This is one ingredient in the 37,057 colts (the best one).
Occurrences / Average Rating / colts in that occurrence group

type occ xxxxx count
colts 0 92.75 24008
colts 1 92.44 4121
colts 2 95.50 4747
colts 3 96.93 2201
colts 4 99.64 1121
colts 5 101.93 532
colts 6 105.67 195
colts 7 106.45 95
colts 8 116.16 19
colts 9 124.55 11
colts 10 112.25 4
colts 11 131.50 2
colts 12 134.00 1

37057
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote diomed Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Feb 2019 at 8:13am
Recent research tells us about the "speed" gene but .....

(I sent this to the Racing Post (UK newspaper) this week)

In The Bloodstock Breeders Review 1912, pages 216 to 240 J. B. Robertson categorised horses into Sprinters (PP), Intermediate (PR), and Stayers (RR). 
On pages 236 to 239 he lists 60 stallions and their type (RR, PR, PP), showing the winning distances of their progeny. 
Robertson attributes the differences to muscle fibre, pale red (sprinter), dark red (stayer). 
The modern C.C, C.T, T.T is the same as the P.P, P.R, R.R described in 1912.
The only improvement is certainty. The modern test tells you which category your horse is.
But you do not need a test for these cases: a C.C mated with a C.C - it produces a C.C; a T.T with a T.T gives a T.T; a C.C with a T.T gives a C.T.
Where the modern test has a use is when you mate a C.T with a C.T, or a C.C with a C.T, or a T.T with a C.T. 
Do your readers know this "discovery" was known over 100 years ago? 
Perhaps you should do an article based on the work of J. B. Robertson. 
The early volumes of The Bloodstock Breeders Review are full of interesting investigations.

......................................................................................................................................................

Breeders need guidance on how to plan matings to produce good horses.

The "speed gene" was known 100+ years ago.
The Tadcaster / Bend Or debate had settled down to an acceptance that the Derby winner who ran as Bend Or was Tadcaster, again over 100 years ago.
Was the sire of Native Dancer (1950) not Polynesian (1942) as generally accepted, but Challedon (1936)?

It is mildly interesting to read about errors in the stud book.
That is safer than stating how to breed a good horse, or choose the best stallion for a mare, or select the best yearling at a sale.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote furious Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Feb 2019 at 8:30am
If it was Challedon would make more understandable some of the mixes which enjoy his presence particularly the Star Kingdom line!

It all boils down that if St Simon, Bend Or, Native Dancer ect have pedigrees which are wrong but as you are just looking for them in a pedigree then you are looking for crosses that have worked with those sires.  It doesn't matter as they are the pin points you are looking at not what came before them.

If you are trying to replicate the mix of St Simon then you are in strife if the mix is different to what is on the page.

Same as when I look at female lines.  You look at which stallions have crossed to a line and try and find them again in the stallions pedigree.  If it is say one of the above then it won't matter likewise.  That stallion worked so putting him in a pedigree should work.

It would be nice if they could put the correct pedigrees but you can only work with what is listed.











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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote HH88 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Feb 2019 at 12:58pm
Hi Byron,
Very interesting paper and many thanks for posting on this site.
The Bend Or / Macaroni blend discovery may not be as deleterious as initially thought.
Yes substituting Tadcaster for Bend Or introduces line breeding to Banter however it is possible the effective line breeding of this blend can be attributed to Derby winner Election and hid full sister in blood the unnamed dam of Derby winner Moses.
This line breeding remains the same with either Tadcaster or Bend Or.
Regarding Harold Hampton his research started after the end of the second world war so much of it done without the aid of computers. The breadth and depth of his work makes it all the more remarkable. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote HH88 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Feb 2019 at 9:02am
Post should read " Election and his full sister" etc.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote HH88 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Feb 2019 at 11:32am
Can somebody please advise why Challedon is deemed more likely the sire of Native Dancer than Polynesian?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Glencoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Feb 2019 at 10:31pm
I think Harold Hampton was the first to theorize this. Until he made the substitution on paper he could not make sense of the pedigrees before him. Once he did the substation in theory pedigree patterns made sense.
I think that what he told me back in 1987 when I visited him in Auckland
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Breeder Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Feb 2019 at 7:24am
That is my understanding Glencoe and even when computers became available he still thought putting it down manually was best.
 Even though I am a keen pedigree person I found reading and following his line of thought quite challenging. Clive Harper put the remaining research into a book ( assembled as Clive put it ) " The First Scientific Principles of Thoroughbred Breeding. part 3" after Harold's death.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote HH88 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Feb 2019 at 12:26pm
Thanks Glencoe and Breeder for the responses.
You are correct Breeder, Hamptons published works part 1 & 2 are, as you put it, challenging.
However there is one unshakeable, rock solid, cast iron breeding principle you can take form his work and that is, as he put it, "speed comes from the opposite strain". The clever part is working out what ancestor or ancestors a stallion is strongest too and matching a broodmare that has the opposite strain.
This of course is the very opposite way most small breeders approach mating decisions (assuming racing the progeny is the aim) 
Likewise I never saw Hampton and a computer in the same room!
Unaware of the part 3 edition would be interested in obtaining a copy if still available?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Breeder Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Feb 2019 at 12:44pm
HH88
The 3rd Part is a lot bigger than Parts 1 & 2 ( about 250 pages)

It was put together by Clive and members of the Levin Breeders group.

From my copy: printed in 1997 by Book Print 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote HH88 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Feb 2019 at 1:19pm
Great work, many thanks!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kavg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Feb 2019 at 4:30pm
When you Hampton writes 'speed comes from opposite strain', what exactly does he mean?
Is it simply to sex balance an ancestor?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Feb 2019 at 4:40pm
To be entirely truthful I didn't really understand that comment either Kav.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote HH88 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Feb 2019 at 12:53pm
Hi kavg,
The short answer is yes. If you go to this link:
https://www.racecafe.co.nz/forums/index.php?/forum/27-thoroughbred-breeding/&page=2 and scroll down to the post Sir Tristram - et al you will find an analysis of him and his progeny done in real time using the breeding principles described. Having established Sir Tristram's strongest lines (Man O War and Spearmint), when in turn Zabeel went to stud it was possible to predict in advance what lines would best suit him. it also explains how the Eight Carat family was able to work with both sires. Essentially this is the purpose of this type of analysis, to give both the stallion and mare the best possible chance of racetrack success for the resultant progeny. On page 4 you will also find the post Star Way - et al with the same in depth analysis and breeding principles.
Trust you find it informative. As always happy to answer any questions.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote kavg Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Feb 2019 at 4:16pm
Thanks H. I have read the sir t/eight carat thread previously. Will check it out again and look at star way.
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