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The Edge

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max manewer View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jul 2012 at 11:49am

That is a bit naive macca, saying external information can't help a club gamble, the piece of information that most punters lack is how a horse has progressed in the stable in recent times, e.g. since its last run, do you imagine that is of no consequence ? If you are getting reasonably accurate reports about a number of runners in the same race, particularly if they constitute a significant part of the betting market, you have an 'edge' to add to publicly available information. I have never had much faith in "information" either, but that was always from one source at a time, about just one runner in a race, and they for the most part would have been in the dark about how the opposition were doing. And there would be other information of a private nature available, e.g. about blood tests etc, anything in fact that the public don't see that could bear on a runners performance. So really to the original question posed, "why are they so successful ?" I think it has largely been answered about how that could be, but along the way there was a misleading impression given that it was like a company shareholder buying shares and then just watching on, without any input other than their cash.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jul 2012 at 12:07pm
Originally posted by max manewer max manewer wrote:

That is a bit naive macca, saying external information can't help a club gamble, the piece of information that most punters lack is how a horse has progressed in the stable in recent times, e.g. since its last run, do you imagine that is of no consequence ? If you are getting reasonably accurate reports about a number of runners in the same race, particularly if they constitute a significant part of the betting market, you have an 'edge' to add to publicly available information. I have never had much faith in "information" either, but that was always from one source at a time, about just one runner in a race, and they for the most part would have been in the dark about how the opposition were doing. And there would be other information of a private nature available, e.g. about blood tests etc, anything in fact that the public don't see that could bear on a runners performance. So really to the original question posed, "why are they so successful ?" I think it has largely been answered about how that could be, but along the way there was a misleading impression given that it was like a company shareholder buying shares and then just watching on, without any input other than their cash.

.
.
. Naive can apply both ways Max.
        Naive if you don't gather your own figures and not be influenced by "coat pullers " 
 I'm Surprised you haven't realised the mix of info from as many sources as you like , will be unreliable and confusing.
       We enter into debate on here and go with the flow . Truth is , anyone who knows Racing at all
on forums is having a laugh most of the time.
     I'm amazed re this Investment Club Crap going on here now .... real Crap.
 Don't you remember a member who used to advertise his Inside info from stable connections down the East Coast .. Site functions on begging and may be doing well but his false claims were stopped [ real quick ]... Relies on imagined prices now days .
   If it was as easy as putting in and taking out James Packer would be doing nothing else.
      Your own research, form guides and video analysis tells you more than any individual can supply.
Thats why 70% of favourites get beaten.
      My post on the runs of Wallers 2 runners in the 2 nd at Rosehill on Saturday tells me more than most would be told from any stable source..
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jul 2012 at 12:10pm
No one said the members input anything but their cash, they are mostly connected to the industry hence not just anyone can join unless invited by a member and vetted by the arm director.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jul 2012 at 12:31pm
Originally posted by gcg84 gcg84 wrote:

No one said the members input anything but their cash, they are mostly connected to the industry hence not just anyone can join unless invited by a member and vetted by the arm director.
.
.
. Punters Club type arrangement which I do believe gcg .  Thousand s of them out there .
I have been in them and run them at the local and at work many years ago.
Hard to get members to  put in their $5 , let alone $5000
     Your Club is probably similar and on a large scale... With strict Rules.
 I believe that more than this "inside info " bit ...[ emerging ]
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jul 2012 at 12:41pm
Must start a "CLUB " on here .
    Entry $10,000 [Unused Bank  Invested , on depost @6%}]
 Gambling bets to Staking method , chosen by BIG AL
 Advertising Manager ...   OCCY
 Money Managers .. LENNIE MCPHERSON , GEORGE FREEMAN
 Fly in the ointment .. THE MAYOR
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jul 2012 at 12:42pm
I would think a cleverly run operation would cull unreliable and inaccurate sources, and reward those that positively contributed. I'm not saying "information" need be the main selection criteria, but "the edge" is what can mean the difference between a marginal operation and a runaway success. It's a bit like a game of rugby league, if the forwards can promote the ball nearer the tryline, it becomes easier to score for the backs. In the old days the bookies would rely on multiple sources to become better informed about horses, and would pay for such information, this is not much different in principle. And the comment about 70% of favourites losing isn't relevant, if it was possible to pin down with precision exactly how horses would perform, the fave would be $1.01 in every race and nobody would bother to show up to bet.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jul 2012 at 12:45pm
Yeah macca I guess that is what it is, the reason he wants people to invest comes back to the old punters motto the more you have on the more you get back!! So by betting big with others money the better the returns. Of course being able to skim 1-2% off the huge pool every quarter makes it worthwhile. I can't tell u how they get on apart from they use someone to hold the money then spread the bets
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jul 2012 at 1:06pm
Originally posted by max manewer max manewer wrote:

I would think a cleverly run operation would cull unreliable and inaccurate sources, and reward those that positively contributed. I'm not saying "information" need be the main selection criteria, but "the edge" is what can mean the difference between a marginal operation and a runaway success. It's a bit like a game of rugby league, if the forwards can promote the ball nearer the tryline, it becomes easier to score for the backs. In the old days the bookies would rely on multiple sources to become better informed about horses, and would pay for such information, this is not much different in principle. And the comment about 70% of favourites losing isn't relevant, if it was possible to pin down with precision exactly how horses would perform, the fave would be $1.01 in every race and nobody would bother to show up to bet.
.
.
. Bookmakers have always relied on the fact they held money at 150%.[ long ago]. Simple
In the days of the SP I used to get an Agents fee 10% on all bets from CJ KING the big Western District Bookmaker [ His son was later the AJC big wig ... [ Great people from Ophir Street]
       Of course they deal in the occasional "dead un "....[ and some win ]
 Doesn't it make you laugh when you read what a genius Tom Waterhouse is.
 Born to bet lololol.
 Born with a mouthfull of dollars to a very experienced Racing and Gambling  Family.
 Gai gives her inside information every race.
 70 % of favs. losing is relevant. If the  supposition,  inside info is so good , 95% of  favs win.
    Inside info = If one other knows about it , the world does .
  It is no longer inside info when your source is spruiking it to others.
         My Inside info is .... Monet's Double is about to resume .. Hopefully at Wyong .... Get on
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jul 2012 at 1:30pm
A while back I pulled some old newspapers out from under some old floor coverings. 1970 it was, a sunday paper and had the race results from a Bundamba meeting. Bookies market was under 120 % in most races. Plenty of runners 100/1. The bookies "mail" or "secret service" contributed to that capability, when they are in the dark they go 160 %. If "inside information" gave you only a 5% improvement in ROI, and you are already over the advantage line with your own methods, you are looking at a very nice earner. But I agree, security of information is important, I have never tested this systematically, but from experience I would say late shorteners (we are talking when the bookies were "king" ) went much better than early shorteners, the later the better. That can only happen with a "tight ship".
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jul 2012 at 2:10pm
Been a good topic and I am sure some people do gain from reading  the "what came first" , the chicken or the egg type debate.. We are all probably  right and wrong along the way .
      The biggest cause  95% of gamblers losing is,  lack of self control , patience , greed, chasing losses ,Betting far beyond the available Bank. being unwilling to learn,  in depth form study, etc.etc.
  We are all guilty of committing   those sins ,  at some time.
 Choosing  solid selections , staking limited bets will give anyone a chance .
Discipline and Money management is everything .
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hot2Trot Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jul 2012 at 3:34pm
A few points her to address:
 
Firstly, I agree with Maccamax, in that in my experience, owning horses with different trainers, inside information has been largely useless.  Overall I have lost more money following my trainers than if I'd never met them.  It is also true that some highly successful jockeys have lost a lot of money punting, and you would think they would get the best info.  Not saying inside info cannot be helpful, just that it's often useless.
 
However getting back to The Edge, Gcg has now made it clear that members do not contribute inside information, so speculation along those lines is now irrelevant.
 
Which takes me back to my original view.  I cannot see how this works.  The more money a punter has to invest the harder it is to return a profit, not the other way around.  Without anything more convincing to go on I think one would have to be naive to invest in it.  I am not ruling out it being a Ponzi scheme.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jul 2012 at 3:56pm
Originally posted by Hot2Trot Hot2Trot wrote:

A few points her to address:
 
Firstly, I agree with Maccamax, in that in my experience, owning horses with different trainers, inside information has been largely useless.  Overall I have lost more money following my trainers than if I'd never met them.  It is also true that some highly successful jockeys have lost a lot of money punting, and you would think they would get the best info.  Not saying inside info cannot be helpful, just that it's often useless.
 
However getting back to The Edge, Gcg has now made it clear that members do not contribute inside information, so speculation along those lines is now irrelevant.
 
Which takes me back to my original view.  I cannot see how this works.  The more money a punter has to invest the harder it is to return a profit, not the other way around.  Without anything more convincing to go on I think one would have to be naive to invest in it.  I am not ruling out it being a Ponzi scheme.
This is what he says......
"No one said the members input anything but their cash, they are mostly connected to the industry hence not just anyone can join unless invited by a member and vetted by the arm director. "
 
Not interested in playing Philadelphia lawyers, but all he said was, he didn't mention any input other than money, and no he didn't, but if you think the tale makes any sense without that element, I'll leave you to nut it out. If I were him I wouldn't have answered the OP.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hot2Trot Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jul 2012 at 4:36pm
I take your point.  Hmm... It's hard to know what to think without more information.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jul 2012 at 4:56pm
Originally posted by Hot2Trot Hot2Trot wrote:

I take your point.  Hmm... It's hard to know what to think without more information.
.
.
. Very hard I'm afraid.
 ...My old one is applicable here
.
            The early bird gets the worm
  BUT ...The 2nd mouse gets the cheese.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jul 2012 at 5:10pm
I don't think punters have ever had it better as to public indicators figuring out what is, or isn't privately fancied. But my lips are sealed on the matter, Order of the Secret Squirrel, you know. Unless you get near to the top odds though, it takes away much of the cream.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hollywood Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jul 2012 at 6:38pm
Ok .... thanks to everyone who has contributed here.
 
I am slowly learning more and more about this group. In fact I know a fella who is just below the top in this. He would not know what part of a horse is the head and what part is the tail. I have not spoken to him yet but I will when I see him. In the meantime a few of his colleagues have given me information. Apparently you can get in with very little money but the key is getting in. I believe most of the bets are placed overseas (HK etc).
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Appman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jul 2012 at 6:54pm
Knowing how fit a horse is everything in punting.

They answer nearly all the questions on "todays" performance pre race and post race.

Trainers have little idea how fit their horses are, so the Owner is given glowing reports all the time, just in case it wins.

That is why owners struggle to make ends meet.


Fit horses win more races.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hot2Trot Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jul 2012 at 7:21pm
If it's betting on HK races then I think I read about them years ago.  I forget the details though.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Guests Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jul 2012 at 8:10pm
They bet on aus races only they may place bets from Hong Kong, one person does their ratings
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jul 2012 at 8:14pm
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Must start a "CLUB " on here .
    Entry $10,000 [Unused Bank  Invested , on depost @6%}]
 Gambling bets to Staking method , chosen by BIG AL
 Advertising Manager ...   OCCY
 Money Managers .. LENNIE MCPHERSON , GEORGE FREEMAN
 Fly in the ointment .. THE MAYOR
 
 
maccamax, just wondering why my name came up in your scam?
 
BIG al
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hollywood Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jul 2012 at 9:28pm

Do you know anything about the person who does their ratings ? I think I know who it is .......... first name starts with "N" ?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jul 2012 at 9:56pm
Originally posted by bigal bigal wrote:

Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Must start a "CLUB " on here .
    Entry $10,000 [Unused Bank  Invested , on depost @6%}]
 Gambling bets to Staking method , chosen by BIG AL
 Advertising Manager ...   OCCY
 Money Managers .. LENNIE MCPHERSON , GEORGE FREEMAN
 Fly in the ointment .. THE MAYOR
 
 
maccamax, just wondering why my name came up in your scam?
 
BIG al
.
.My Joke sounds better AL
I am a very perceptive old fella .... AND .. I believe you are very selective in your approach ... Backing well performing gallopers who have the figures on the board ... Usually at the top of the market and handle track conditions.... So I want you choosing our bets ..... [ Feel honoured ]
    Qccy was chosen to advertise for obvious reasons ... she is  GOLD.
   Mc pherson and Freeman were chosen as they are the same as Wallers Fav in Race 2 at Rosehill Saturday.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jul 2012 at 11:04pm
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by bigal bigal wrote:

Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Must start a "CLUB " on here .
    Entry $10,000 [Unused Bank  Invested , on depost @6%}]
 Gambling bets to Staking method , chosen by BIG AL
 Advertising Manager ...   OCCY
 Money Managers .. LENNIE MCPHERSON , GEORGE FREEMAN
 Fly in the ointment .. THE MAYOR
 
 
maccamax, just wondering why my name came up in your scam?
 
BIG al
.
.My Joke sounds better AL
I am a very perceptive old fella .... AND .. I believe you are very selective in your approach ... Backing well performing gallopers who have the figures on the board ... Usually at the top of the market and handle track conditions.... So I want you choosing our bets ..... [ Feel honoured ]
    Qccy was chosen to advertise for obvious reasons ... she is  GOLD.
   Mc pherson and Freeman were chosen as they are the same as Wallers Fav in Race 2 at Rosehill Saturday.
 
bugger, i thought you wanted me because of my connections to the MAFIAShocked
 
 
BIG al
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote layer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jul 2012 at 11:16pm
Who do they bet with nobody seems to know them ?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jul 2012 at 7:24am
Originally posted by layer layer wrote:

Who do they bet with nobody seems to know them ?
.
    You are obviously unaware of Australia's Biggest "hit" men Layer.  Both dead.
So u missed the Waller joke too......LOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote layer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jul 2012 at 8:02am
I got it just like to know who they invest all this cash with.

Australia's Biggest "hit"men fact is George was a easy beat in a fightThumbs Up matter of fact he couldnt fight to save his life but had the strenght of Lennie behind him with contacts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jul 2012 at 8:55am
Originally posted by layer layer wrote:

I got it just like to know who they invest all this cash with.

Australia's Biggest "hit"men fact is George was a easy beat in a fightThumbs Up matter of fact he couldnt fight to save his life but had the strenght of Lennie behind him with contacts.
.
.
       The contacts don't help in the end .LOLLOL
  Lennie died in Gaol as did his nephew about the same time ,  nekked himself at Lithgow .
 Silver Head had one too many Asthma Attacks , took his secret of Christopher Dale ? with him.
 Neddie Smith went in as a result of one Policeman ...John Laycock .[ now retired Deputy Commissioner of Police }... John's son got sprung as a mobster [ 20 yrs a policeman ] now doing 7 years . ....
 All enough to tell us where Parliament House is ........ Right in THE CROSS....Cry
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Originally posted by layer layer wrote:

I got it just like to know who they invest all this cash with.

Australia's Biggest "hit"men fact is George was a easy beat in a fightThumbs Up matter of fact he couldnt fight to save his life but had the strenght of Lennie behind him with contacts.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 367bet Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jul 2012 at 10:27pm
Originally posted by gcg84 gcg84 wrote:

They bet on aus races only they may place bets from Hong Kong, one person does their ratings
 
 
first of all is this syndicate Zeljko Ranogajec syndicate you gusy are talking about which i assume you are?
 
Also if so gcg84 1 ratings guys you serious?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Hollywood Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jul 2012 at 10:32pm
Originally posted by 367bet 367bet wrote:

Originally posted by gcg84 gcg84 wrote:

They bet on aus races only they may place bets from Hong Kong, one person does their ratings
 
 
first of all is this syndicate Zeljko Ranogajec syndicate you gusy are talking about which i assume you are?
 
Also if so gcg84 1 ratings guys you serious?
Nothing to do with Z
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