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The Autumn Sun

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Shrunk in the Wash View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shrunk in the Wash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Oct 2018 at 8:25am
As good as he appears he’s only 3 and we know what happens to many of them once they leave the security of their age group
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Afros View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Afros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Oct 2018 at 8:39am
Originally posted by djebel djebel wrote:

We are getting in a pickle over a race at Moonee Valley.

It does not deserve the airtime.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gee Gee Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Oct 2018 at 11:31am
If he wasn't trained by Wallers he'd be in the CP. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Oct 2018 at 11:59am
Originally posted by Gee Gee Gee Gee wrote:

If he wasn't trained by Wallers he'd be in the CP. 



We are all very cynical.

Both Waller and Weir are very conservative with the placement of young horses. 

Let's remember, Waller did not want to run Winx as a 4yo mare in her first Cox Plate.




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote lulu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Oct 2018 at 12:27pm
So You Think was technically still a 2yo when he won his first Cox Plate.






Originally posted by Redemption Redemption wrote:

The 3 year olds are ALWAYS a genuine threat in this race, ESPECIALLY ones that truly show something beforehand.

Shamus Award.

Was So You Think a 3 year old for his first Cox Plate win??

I strongly believe Waller knows The Autumn Sun had a genuine chance to win, but only because of the weights.
At level weights, Winx smashes him.

There is no doubt The Autumn Sun would be skipping around that hometurn still full of run at that weight.

But hey, we will never know, because this is Australian racing now.
The place to avoid a challenge.

Special mention to Damien Olivers bizarre ride last year, deliberately smashing into the super talented 3 year old Royal Symphony, like as though he was paid to do it.
Was just more proof in my opinion, that the 3 year old Royal Symphony was a major threat to Winx last year at the weights.
That was one of the most bizarre rides of the modern era. Totally took the wind out of Royal Symphony.
You're either Einstein or Frankenstein in this game.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Oct 2018 at 12:35pm
Every horse matures at a variable rate &  likewise, we'll all have differing opinions but the bottom line is that racing enthusiasts will always have another good horse to watch or back next week.
Owners however risk future racing opportunity & possible high veterinary expense by not erring on the side of caution.
Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote lulu Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Oct 2018 at 12:52pm
Messiah has no or little interest in making the Cox Plate the race of the year has he?

What with people drooling over the match ups between the champ, the new kid and the raiders. One of whom has form that leaves the likes of Adelaide for dead!
It would have been one of the best Cox Plate's ever run IMVHO.

It's not in the best interests of Racing NSW and a race like let's say the Queen Elizabeth to make the Cox Plate an even greater attraction. And makes a race like the Everest look like money poorly distributed. Which of course it is.

Think about it. You know it makes sense!

Obviously Waller would not want the mare to be beaten. May as well make sure it is less likely to happen.      

As for killing Bambi? Yeah right!

Lucky TAS has balls. No one else seems to.

   
You're either Einstein or Frankenstein in this game.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rusty nails Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Oct 2018 at 1:15pm
You think Messara would put the brand value of the QE ahead of his personal commercial interests?

Bearing in mind, the massive “relaunch” of the QE coincided nicely with his personal commercial interests 😊

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote mc41 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Oct 2018 at 9:35am
He has gone to the paddock. End of if buts coulda
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Oct 2018 at 9:39am
I will be amazed if The Autumn Sun races out of Australia or beyond this season.Big smile
"Even the things that I believe in the most, I doubt.”
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gee Gee Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Oct 2018 at 10:04am
Put him in cotton wool. He can let down earlier. 

A number of mares that would go to his sire would now go to him. He's a money making machine now.

Why race on for the Hobartville?? Randwick Guineas??  
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tontonan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Oct 2018 at 7:34pm
Double posted but it deserves to be remembered.

Just for the record :

Year    Cox Plate winning 3YO     Foal Date            Age winning Cox Plate
2013 : Shamus Award        28 October 2016         2 years 363 days
2009 :  So You Think (NZ)   10 November 2012         2 years 248 days
2004 : Savabeel              23 September 2001         3 years 30 days
1995 : Octagonal (NZ)      8 October 1992            3 years 20 days

The Autumn Sun was foaled on 18 September 2015.  He is older than the past four 3YO winners of the Cox Plate.  

If he ran in the race he would be 3 years and 55 days old , 25 days older than Savabeel, 35 days older than Octagonal, 57 days older than Shamus Award and 72 days older than So You Think.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shrunk in the Wash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 Oct 2018 at 7:19pm
Originally posted by acacia alba acacia alba wrote:

Exactly.  He went on something along the lines of its only a young horse and we dont want to bust it until it shows its true potential.   ( not his word,,mine ,  as cant recall the exact ones, but you get the drift ) .


Interesting you are critical of Messara but then call anyone else who questions a horse not being tested you call the nobodies and keyboard heroes.

Double standards from AAClap
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote furious Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Nov 2018 at 8:59am
Tontonan having seen that Cox Plate and loving this boy I still think the mare would of spanked him.  She is one in a generation racehorse.  No matter how he matures it would still be hard to see him beating her.  He may break her but she will beat him.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote furious Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Nov 2018 at 9:00am
In fact it will probably go both ways.  She'll break him also.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Baguette Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Nov 2018 at 9:51am
This has all been a social media beat up! TAS was never going to go to the Cox Plate or race past the Guineas. Waller has never pushed any of his three year olds in the Springtime . How many three year olds has he ever started in the Cox Plate? To believe anyone in the Waller camp could think this immature colt could actually get anywhere near Winx is crazy. Waller was protecting him not her!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote furious Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Nov 2018 at 10:13am
I agree fully Baguette.  Why do people believe they can tell owners and trainer what is best for their horse?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Nov 2018 at 4:20pm
What a magnificent looking specimen Thumbs Up



Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Nov 2018 at 6:52pm
He's really something.
Sunline...simply supreme
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Enabled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Nov 2018 at 7:16pm
Look Graff has more upside.

Preparation was rushed, poor draws and unsuitable track.

Be patient.

Graff is the best 3yo Sprinter.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Nov 2018 at 8:26pm
What is the connection between Autumn Sun. which has a miler/middle distance profile, and Graff which on pedigree would get a headache beyond 1450m? 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Speediskey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Nov 2018 at 12:29am
Pretty much any horse besides Winx has more potential upside. How much more 'up' can the Autumn Sun go? In his last 4 races he's won 3 Group 1's. Graff will be lucky to win that many in his life. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Nov 2018 at 12:34am
How does the form from the Caulfield Guineas look ?


STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Nov 2018 at 3:00pm
Originally posted by Gay3 Gay3 wrote:

What a magnificent looking specimen Thumbs Up




Geez. he sure is something isnt he.
Heck of a future, both on track and stud.
His neck reminds me of So You Think. So strong through there, The shoulder.
Best looking horse Ive seen since Lonhro and So You think
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Enabled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Nov 2018 at 3:50pm
Graff is a better prospect
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gee Gee Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Nov 2018 at 7:38pm
Zousain > Graff
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Enabled Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Nov 2018 at 8:31pm
Graff mate. Look at his run in the Everest when he was over.

Crazy barriers at last few starts.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Afros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Nov 2018 at 9:04pm
Whats the over/under bet on autumn starts prior to the old 'retired to stud due to injury' line is trotted out due to a disappointing run? They're already doing the PR work for him both with the shooting bambi gimmick and these photos and being a Redoutes suggests a long career won't happen...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shrunk in the Wash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Nov 2018 at 9:43am
Originally posted by djebel djebel wrote:

How does the form from the Caulfield Guineas look ?


I’d be interested to see some of the recent past fields to review the form of the beaten brigade before making a judgement
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JudgeHolden Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Nov 2018 at 9:56am
Second and fourth in the Guineas well beaten in the Carbine. TAS couldn’t have been much more impressive, but it was an extremely weak renewal.
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