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The Autumn Sun

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SHOVHOG View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SHOVHOG Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 10:58am
He's in and in an 11 horse field he will go bang and put pay to these. Not sure what price he will open back up but unload on this future champion.
" In gambling the many must lose in order for the few to win"
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SHOVHOG View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SHOVHOG Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 11:01am
$4.50 is still well over the odds. I can't cop the fact that he won't start favourite expect him to shorten all the way till race time and start fav.
" In gambling the many must lose in order for the few to win"
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Carioca View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 11:14am
Between two imo, Graff and LMM, I think the former fwiw.
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rem286 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rem286 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Sep 2018 at 11:17am
Unless something wipes out The Autumn Sun, he wins.  
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SHOVHOG View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SHOVHOG Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Sep 2018 at 11:48am
The money going on this horse now is relentless.
" In gambling the many must lose in order for the few to win"
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Stainvita View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Stainvita Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Sep 2018 at 1:53pm
Sportsbet are offering 5 50 in their promotions
If your hands aren't shaking you haven't put enough on.
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ExceedAndExcel View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Sep 2018 at 1:58pm
Originally posted by Stainvita Stainvita wrote:

Sportsbet are offering 5 50 in their promotions



What the max bet? May load up the account.
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Stainvita View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Stainvita Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Sep 2018 at 2:35pm
Does not stipulate a max bet try 10k see what they do
If your hands aren't shaking you haven't put enough on.
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stayer View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote stayer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Sep 2018 at 5:29pm
Originally posted by Carioca Carioca wrote:

Between two imo, Graff and LMM, I think the former fwiw.

Those 2 for me too. Zousain maybe ahead of The Autumn Sun too, over 1400. Interesting to me how many decent 3yos that probably had this race as a target haven't turned up. Great race to watch and not bet on!
"She's going through a growth phase." - GW
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scamanda View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote scamanda Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Sep 2018 at 8:02pm
Originally posted by SHOVHOG SHOVHOG wrote:

He's in and in an 11 horse field he will go bang and put pay to these. Not sure what price he will open back up but unload on this future champion.

I had 2 early bets for the GR and both are gone, so I took The Autumn Sun at $8.
The stablemate Lean Mean Machine looks the danger to me but happy to be on this one.

Can't have Graff. Good horse but this is Grp 1 against The A Team from the Waller stable.
I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Sep 2018 at 8:07pm
Am totally with you on this Scamanda.Which might be a bit of a worry.  Embarrassed
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rem286 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote rem286 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Sep 2018 at 9:35pm
Can't believe I was still able to get $4.40 on this bloke today.

Now a hypothetical for you.  Very unlikely to come about, but, if this bloke was to go to the Cox Plate how close would he get to the great mare given the feather weight on his back?
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Nick View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Nick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Sep 2018 at 9:42pm
Very
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Red Rancher View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Red Rancher Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Sep 2018 at 10:19pm
Within 5 lengths maybe. Let's not get too carried away. What would Winx have done to that field today?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jacko1 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Sep 2018 at 12:06am
Difficult to judge, we don't know what his ceiling is. I think Winx would still beat him, but in a weak year he would be a big chance. He has been more impressive to date than a horse like So You Think was. The owner is desperate to win a Derby so they will probably go in that direction, but if it was me I'd give him a go at the Valley in what will be a weak race outside Winx. Much better than a tough 2500m race at this age. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote correctweight Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Sep 2018 at 1:42am
Should go to the Mackinnon Stakes at Flemington. Surely you don't want to go chasing the great mares behind and breaking him.

He can go to the Guineas from here then the MV Vase over 2040m on Cox Plate day then the Emirates.

Personally if he was mine I would spell after the Guineas.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Sep 2018 at 2:20am
If he was mine he'd go Guineas than Derby. No need for a run in between.

I suspect Waller will talk the owner into saving him for the autumn Derby.

The owner should remind Waller the only reason Winx is going for a 4th Cox Plate is cause the owners insisted on running in the 2015 running.


STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Speediskey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Sep 2018 at 9:47am
Why would you want to go to the Derby? I'd be running in the Cox Plate/Emirates. Run 2nd to Winx worst case scenario in the Cox, then win the Emirates. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Prince of Penzance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Sep 2018 at 9:49am
I would run him in the Everest
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SHOVHOG View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SHOVHOG Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Sep 2018 at 9:49am
Thought McEvoy almost cost him the win. I'm not one to whinge about winning rides but he was travelling big time a long way out. His patience almost cost him and the connections a lot of money.

Anyway he's paid for my entire spring and then some. If he wins the Caulfield guineas or dargento wins the Epsom or trapeze wins the Everest my Vegas trip next year is paid for.
" In gambling the many must lose in order for the few to win"
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Prince of Penzance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Sep 2018 at 9:50am
And then I’d send him straight to the Melbourne Cup without a lead up before running in both the Classic Sprint and Emirates in Day 4 winning all three races
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SHOVHOG View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SHOVHOG Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Sep 2018 at 9:53am
It will be Caulfield guineas then probably a spell I would imagine. He will look after him.
" In gambling the many must lose in order for the few to win"
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JudgeHolden Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Sep 2018 at 10:00am
He’s obviously a real talent but that racing pattern is going to cost him, especially in bigger fields and when he gets out of restricted racing.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Speediskey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Sep 2018 at 10:21am
He only did that because of the gate and the belief he was he best horse in the race, if he wasn’t in the outside barrier he would have settled closer.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Prince of Penzance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Sep 2018 at 10:38am
Waller in this mornings papers, next run will be Caulfield Guineas.
Owners are keen on VRC Derby, he isn’t.
Time will tell where he goes.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Sep 2018 at 10:54am
What a talent this boy is. Can't wait to see him tear them a new one in Melbourne as well.
Sunline...simply supreme
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote antlowes Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Sep 2018 at 10:59am
Originally posted by Speediskey Speediskey wrote:

Why would you want to go to the Derby? I'd be running in the Cox Plate/Emirates. Run 2nd to Winx worst case scenario in the Cox, then win the Emirates. 

Getting carried away here? Have we forgotten about Humidors run last year already?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Sep 2018 at 11:01am
I would like to congratulete those who stuck solid.

You were rewarded yesterday.

I really did not see what everybody else saw first up and it proved costly.



STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Speediskey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Sep 2018 at 11:11am
Originally posted by antlowes antlowes wrote:

Originally posted by Speediskey Speediskey wrote:

Why would you want to go to the Derby? I'd be running in the Cox Plate/Emirates. Run 2nd to Winx worst case scenario in the Cox, then win the Emirates. 

Getting carried away here? Have we forgotten about Humidors run last year already?


He was at his prime age, had probably the best run you could ever get in a Cox Plate and couldn’t win. I don’t think he’s as good this year, and also think The Autumn Sun is special.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Baguette Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Sep 2018 at 11:52am
The managing owner was talking on Sky this morning. Said they hadn't discussed the Caulfield Guineas for TAS and Waller would have to convince them to put him on the truck for Melbourne. They want the horse to get out to a classic distance but think he's still unfurnished . Sounds like they'll be aiming at the Derby in the Autumn and if they go to Melbourne it will be Guineas then spell.
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