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Testing The waters ...

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Rosscoe View Drop Down
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    Posted: 13 Mar 2016 at 8:58pm
Hi TV regulars!

I sold my share in "Supersay" (handy but no superstar).

Moving on, I'd like to hear the opinions of those that know a bit about pedigrees with the match below:-

Hinchinbrook X Brave Soul (More Than Ready).

RFF - you're included as well ....! (Robbie Griffiths - how good is he going?)

Where's the Mayor these days,, would love his input as well as we've agreed on many pedigrees before over the years!

Valued input please, study the pedigree and take it back 8 generations.

As always, the heart & constitution of horse cannot be measured, however I'm looking at this through a
strictly analyitcal viewpoint (pedigree wise).

Those that know me,,,,, can attest to my bias of Danehill sex-balancing!

To reiterate Danehill inbreeding:-

Double male duplication

1262 named foals
808 runners
349 winners
14 SW (Gr1 x 0, Gr2 x 1, Gr3 x 4, LR x 9)

Sex-balanced duplication

739 named foals
530 runners
239 winners
14 SW (Gr1 x 3, Gr2 x 0, Gr3 x 5, LR x 6)

Double female duplication

63 named foals
39 runners
19 winners
1 SW

As you can see the double male cross now has over 800 runners without a Gr1 winner. The sex-balanced variant has the same number of SW (and 3 more Group winners incl. 3 Gr1 winners) from 523 LESS foals.

Let's get down to the nitty gritty!

All opinions appreciated (about time this thread livened up a bit!).

My mind is made up ....

Over to others
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Isaac soloman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Mar 2016 at 8:16am
Simply, are there plenty of quality winners in the dams side?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rosscoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2016 at 5:25pm
There are plenty of quality winners on the dam's side as suggested by you Isaac.

Despite the lack of feedback here, I've decided to take a share in this filly.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote whitt0 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2016 at 5:42pm
She was an excellent racemare Rosscoe & by a sire producing amazing results.

The mare was only just knocked off by catkins, Shamal Wind, Better than Ready & Driefintein. Dont get much classier opposition than that
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rosscoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2016 at 5:55pm
Cheers Whitt0!

The pedigree really appeals to me, there are no certainties in the racing caper but this one ticks the boxes for me.

"Brave Soul" was an extremely quick mare, she comes from a black type family.

Love the sex-balancing of Danehill on the 3rd line and the breeding back to Almahmoud ... with a few other sources thrown in further back to balance her pedigree up!

Anyway, another one for the regulars on here to follow eventually.

I think she'll run early, time will tell!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2016 at 6:10pm
8 x Almahmoud in 8 gens will probably be the clincher either way, hopefully for the better Thumbs Up
Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Rosscoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Mar 2016 at 6:24pm
There is plenty of Almahmoud, it's actually x 9 within 8 generations. If you can believe it!

Hopefully for the better as you say.

An interesting experiment ...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Progold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Mar 2016 at 12:33pm
I haven't had a close look, but always interested in pedigrees, and in particular the underlying assumptions in their assessments.

First up, I have to wonder why 8 generations is important.  No matter how you look at it, the 3x3 of Danehill is a primary driver of the pedigree, and a quarter of the 8th generation remain the ancestors of Danehill.  Which brings us to the assumption that 8 lines of Almahmoud is important in the pedigree.  Let us just look at that for a second.  Of the nine lines of Almahmoud, eight of these are through her daughter, Natalma.  Why are we suggesting that an Almahmoud influence is important when it may well be a Natalma influence that we are looking at.  On that same vein, of the influence of Natalma, we see that six are through Northern Dancer, a further two through Danehill's female line, and only one through Halo.

The next premise is why we think that close inbreeding is the right strategy in this case, assuming that we can agree that 3x3 to Danehill is close.  We can argue that Brave Soul herself has a relatively closely inbred pedigree with Northern Dancer appearing 4x4.  While most would say that isn't particularly close, especially when considering it is Northern Dancer we are talking about, but it is certainly relatively close if we look at the other successful family members.  Have a look at the pedigrees of all of the other black type horses on the catalogue page of this yearling, and you will see that none are as closely inbred as Brave Soul.  As a point of interest, most were more versatile than Brave Soul but this is another discussion.

Finally, a major point is clearly the duplication of Danehill.  In this case, it would seem that just about any grandson of Danehill would represent a similar sort of mating with the dam of this yearling.  By that I am suggesting that there really doesn't appear much, apart from the Northern Dancer lines above, that stand out in the pedigree of Hinchinbrook in comparison with many other Danehill grandsons as far as it relates to this particular mare.  I haven't spent much time, but Hinchinbrook has not had a stakes winner with a Danehill duplication that I can see.  Similarly, I cannot immediately come up with a stakes winner from this entire female line with a Danehill duplication.  It would make me wonder as to the wisdom of duplicating Danehill so closely in this instance.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote goldey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Mar 2016 at 4:03pm
Not one horse that raced in the slipper had a Danehill duplication , very few with duplications inside the 3rd generation, Danzig 3x4 the most intense inbreeding in our showcase 2yo race, if that puts  Danehill inbreeding  in the spotlight in a way . My suggestion is look to the forth and  fifth Generation and Mr p and Danzig is a start .
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote goldey Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Mar 2016 at 4:44pm
Not one horse that ran  in the Rosehill Guineas either , inbred to Danehill.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rosscoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Mar 2016 at 7:46pm
Originally posted by Progold Progold wrote:

I haven't had a close look, but always interested in pedigrees, and in particular the underlying assumptions in their assessments.

First up, I have to wonder why 8 generations is important.  No matter how you look at it, the 3x3 of Danehill is a primary driver of the pedigree, and a quarter of the 8th generation remain the ancestors of Danehill.  Which brings us to the assumption that 8 lines of Almahmoud is important in the pedigree.  Let us just look at that for a second.  Of the nine lines of Almahmoud, eight of these are through her daughter, Natalma.  Why are we suggesting that an Almahmoud influence is important when it may well be a Natalma influence that we are looking at.  On that same vein, of the influence of Natalma, we see that six are through Northern Dancer, a further two through Danehill's female line, and only one through Halo.

The next premise is why we think that close inbreeding is the right strategy in this case, assuming that we can agree that 3x3 to Danehill is close.  We can argue that Brave Soul herself has a relatively closely inbred pedigree with Northern Dancer appearing 4x4.  While most would say that isn't particularly close, especially when considering it is Northern Dancer we are talking about, but it is certainly relatively close if we look at the other successful family members.  Have a look at the pedigrees of all of the other black type horses on the catalogue page of this yearling, and you will see that none are as closely inbred as Brave Soul.  As a point of interest, most were more versatile than Brave Soul but this is another discussion.

Finally, a major point is clearly the duplication of Danehill.  In this case, it would seem that just about any grandson of Danehill would represent a similar sort of mating with the dam of this yearling.  By that I am suggesting that there really doesn't appear much, apart from the Northern Dancer lines above, that stand out in the pedigree of Hinchinbrook in comparison with many other Danehill grandsons as far as it relates to this particular mare.  I haven't spent much time, but Hinchinbrook has not had a stakes winner with a Danehill duplication that I can see.  Similarly, I cannot immediately come up with a stakes winner from this entire female line with a Danehill duplication.  It would make me wonder as to the wisdom of duplicating Danehill so closely in this instance.



Cheers Progold, I always acknowledge a clear and concise summary such as yours! I don't disagree with your comments. I personally thought the pedigree had plenty to offer. I'm a big fan of sex-balancing Danehill at present. I do believe ... (My opinion only), that Danehill through two sons needs to be stretched out to the 4th generation before we see his influence being stamped to his progeny.

I have my reasons for really taking a liking to this pedigree, however I won't go into specific details. I think Goldey mentioned Danzig and Mr P being instrumental in the all-roundedness of the pedigree. Correct! The Danzig influence occurs through the sex-balancing of Danehill. Almahmoud to the fore ,,, who wouldn't breed back to this wonderful influence? This pedigree throws in Mr P through Woodman. The lovely aspect of the pedigree in my opinion are the influential 1x family members in the 8th generation who come to the party.

I've been proved wrong before in this game of chasing an above average one (however I've been blessed in at least getting a win out of most of mine that I've been associated with). You'd love to know what their constitution is before jumping in! Unfortunately, this cannot be! I'd also love to know what sort of heart they will wear on their sleeve .... again can't be measured!

I do know that Danehill has been influential in the pedigrees of some of the other family members. Just love obtaining that reinforcement through the sex-balancing act!

Is it worth a punt? I'm wearing my heart on the sleeve and going for it!

I hope she possesses the WOW factor on the track.

Hopefully I've pulled the right rein for a bit of fun?

As always, time will tell ...

By the way, check out the breeding of "Guelph". (different influences ... yes!) but a lovely pedigree ...




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rosscoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Mar 2016 at 8:19pm
One more point to make. This experiment has not been tried with Hinchinbrook previously looking at all matings from his first 2 crops.

We'll see if the closeness of inbreeding to Danehill 3x3 in this scenario is a tick or a cross when she steps out in the months to come.

You only learn from experiments .... & the results they produce.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Progold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Mar 2016 at 11:02am
The point of the thread I believe was to create a discussion, so please don't take this the wrong way.  

It is an interesting comment to refer to breeding the thoroughbred as an "experiment."  This type of model reinforces the idea that breeding is a matter of random chance by and large.  To me, this is the last thing that breeding is about, but it is the great let out as justification for failed horses.  If I get a mating wrong, it is my belief that I need to research why I got it wrong, not to dismiss it as a genetic lottery.

The thoroughbred comes from a very closed genetic base.  For this reason, it is possible to find support for just about any breeding theory that anyone can come up with.  Relevance is another thing.  The mention of Guelph is along these lines.  Guelph's pedigree indeed features a duplication of Danehill.  Though as we know, the genetic influence of Danehill could theoretically range from 100% to 0%.  If the nicks figures above are correct, and there is no reason to suggest they aren't, then less that 3% of sex-balanced duplications of Danehill produce are stakes winners.  This may be overall, or it may be SH in which case it could be misleading.  We have singled out 1 G1 winner from this group as an example.  What we do know about breeding is that top performing mares often have better progeny.  Guelph's female line is represented by a Group 1 winning daughter of Danehill in Camarina.  In fact, Guelph's first two dams are Group 1 winners.  Reng would have published the success rates of Group 1 winning mares, but I am not sure if she ever went as far as two Group 1 winners as the first two dams.  I am sure that you will find that the success rate is at least comparable with the 3% of Danehill duplications.  It may not be terribly realistic to suggest that comparing the pedigree of Guelph with the general horse population is valid.  Indeed, it may be a great argument for duplication of Danehill in the pedigrees of Group 1 winning daughters of Danehill.  The question is whether the results of this group are transferable to the general population.

There is another suggestion that the Danehill duplication has not been tried in the case of Hinchinbrook.  Here, are we overstating the influence of the stallion?  In the case of Guelph, her sire is Exceed and Excel, so again, is this is a valid comparison?  Is Hinchinbrook the same as any son of Fastnet Rock in terms of this viewpoint, or any grandson of Danehill?  The problem, as always in the pedigree, is that we risk two main failings.  One is cherrypicking the information, and the other is attributing influence to an ancestor.

Hopefully there is a bit in this for discussion.  However, I would like to make clear some of the basis of my understanding of pedigrees.  A critical factor to me is the female family.  In the case of this yearling, it has an advantage to many in that it comes from a family that produces regular and consistent city quality racehorses.  A few years ago, you would find trainers would go out of their way to regularly purchase from the same running families as they had success from.  Unfortunately, this no longer seems to happen as often but that is another discussion.  To me, the success of the immediate family is the most relevant point.  Each family has their strengths and weaknesses and this is what mating plans are all about, to breed over time to the strengths of a mare while breeding away from the weaknesses.  In many ways, the pedigree and family of Guelph is of little matter to this particular yearling.  While extreme, it is the argument that you get from greyhound breeders who claim success in breeding that animal can be directly converted into the success of breeding thoroughbreds. 


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rosscoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Mar 2016 at 5:33pm
Cheers Progold and thanks for your input.

Great to see a little bit of discussion & your views here.

I think what also needs to be mentioned is the type of horse she is (from the PDF Hinchinbrook/Brave Soul filly):-

"Filly who has great strength and length, deep girth, clean joints and looks a filly who will
mature early and race at 2 years old. Typifies pedigree.
Dam Brave Soul was a high class racemare who raced against good opposition and
was stakes placed on multiple occasions. Half sister to gun 2yo filly, Solar Charged.
Her sire Hinchinbrook is proving a good sire of 2yo's and has already produced group 1
winner Press Statement from 2 crops to race."

There are no guarantees in this game and no doubt luck will play a huge part however I've given this one a nudge!

I've only bought into reasonably cheap horses, I'm not one to jump into yearlings that have cost hundreds of thousands of mula! I try to look for value.

Recent ones raced including sale price - Square Up - $11k
                                                                    Royal Charger - $2200k off a service fee, bred by us ..
                                                                    Aboutogobang - $12k
                                                                    Supersay- $36k

The latest acquisition being the most expensive at $57500.

Interestingly .... Square Up, Aboutogobang, Royal Charger & Supersay (to date) are close to being the best runners from their families going on prize-money earnings.

I'm a small player these days but try to look for cheapish buys that I consider to tick the boxes for a bit of enjoyment and fun!

Who knows maybe there is another "Buffering" out there @ a bargain price???

I do agree with you that the female family is critical when assessing the pedigree.







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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rosscoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Mar 2016 at 5:35pm
(PDS) above ...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rosscoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Nov 2016 at 7:19pm
Update for the Hinchinbrook filly.

Coming to hand very nicely, is a natural runner although goes quite hard in her work. Trainer happy with the way she's going. Has galloped a few times with other stable runners and has had the wood on them. She's more a early running type. Trainer will assess her again after a jump out shortly to determine whether to press ahead or give her a brief letup to mature more.

Showing nice ability at present and will be named within the week.

Fingers crossed she stands up to the training in front of her in coming weeks.

Things are looking positive for this filly.

Onwards and upwards ......
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Aurelius Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Nov 2016 at 7:51pm
Extracted fom Progold's response above;

This type of model reinforces the idea that breeding is a matter of random chance by and large. To me, this is the last thing that breeding is about, but it is the great let out as justification for failed horses.
If I get a mating wrong, it is my belief that I need to research why I got it wrong, not to dismiss it as a genetic lottery.


If breeders did not try different experiments over the years that had rarely been tried as Roscoe has mentioned then the breeding lines we have now would be non existant.
Some of the well known breeders have stated they were not afraid to try completely different bloodline combinations from time to time and to them that is what breeding is all about.

You can put the odds in your favour by utilizing a successful nick however it is still a genetic lottery.




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Aurelius Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Nov 2016 at 7:55pm
Conversely When someone gets a mating correct then all of a sudden it is a justification for successful horses.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rosscoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Dec 2016 at 8:55pm
Has just been tipped out until January. Surprisingly, went really well & improved heaps this last prep. Slow to begin with ( mentally speaking) but demonstrating a nice turn of foot. Being set for some nice races in the new year. A neat & compact filly showing natural ability. Time will tell where she ends up going to for her first appearance.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rosscoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Mar 2017 at 7:33pm
Injured herself in January and has had an enforced spell.

Will return to work in April all going well.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ammy42 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Mar 2017 at 7:38pm
Best of luck with her Roscoe Thumbs Up
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rosscoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Mar 2017 at 7:43pm
Originally posted by Ammy42 Ammy42 wrote:

Best of luck with her Roscoe Thumbs Up


Cheers Ammy, you have to wrap them up in cotton wool in this game!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote .Swynford. Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Mar 2017 at 3:20am
Pretty smart this horse.  Few of similarities with yours Roscoe

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Rosscoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Mar 2017 at 5:22am
Thanks for sharing Swynford.

I have actually backed Single Bullet at a long price previously to win the Slipper with Houtzen (shorter odds).

I do believe the very wet track brings "Single Bullet" into the race with a live chance should the meeting proceed today.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote furious Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Mar 2017 at 7:30pm
Gee Rosscoe he was in one bad state on Saturday.  He'd got himself really over heated and excited.  While the filly was so asleep in the lead around down near the stables she was holding a que of horses up behind her!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Rosscoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Jun 2017 at 6:33pm
The Hinchinbrook/Brave Soul finally has a name - "Soul Star".

I threw this name into the ring as I raced another "Soul Star" back in the late 1980's who was a very talented sprinting filly, whose racing career was cut short unfortunately when she died of colic as an early 3yr old.

The filly is back in work again after a forced lay-off when injuring her pelvis back in January. Early days ....

Showed enough ability last prep .... end of 2016, fingers crossed she makes the track this time round.

Patience, patience & more patience ... 🐴🐴



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Jun 2017 at 7:03pm
Best of luck with her Rossco, patience in abundance, you got it!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Rosscoe Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jul 2017 at 2:29pm
Soul Star won her barrier trial & gained her barrier certificate at Caulfield recently and is now off to the races.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote furious Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 Jul 2017 at 3:40pm
Smile Good Luck.
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