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So You Think $66,000 !!!!!

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Fremz View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Fremz Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Apr 2012 at 7:05pm
Question to everyone.... do you think his overseas haunts have increased, decreased or had little to no effect on his Australian service fee.
 
I personally believe the latter. I remember before he went overseas I thought he'd be set somewhere around the 70k mark such was the hype around the horse.
for those about to punt, we salute you...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EverydayImShufflin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Apr 2012 at 7:13pm
I do think $66k is overs, I'm surprised by the number of people defending his fee. You have to remember that we're not in the 'good times' any more - when we could take any kind of correct enough colt to the sales an be almost certain of making money. Stud farms (not all, but many) still believe we are still in those days!
 
Yes, he won two cox plates - the first of which was dominated by two front running three year olds. Suggesting it was hardly a stellar field and he ran the race to suit. Whobegotyou was the only other runner in he field who held genuine group one credentials and he failed to stay strongly.
 
The second Cox Plate? He was a $1.50 favourite..... again, he didn't have to beat much, bar More Joyous who was unable to see out the distance on that occassion.
 
There was much talk about his performances overseas, and the riding instructions given. Shoulda, woulda, coulda in my opinion. He just wasn't quite up to the european stayers - which is by no means a negative, but $66k........?
 
His sire is $77k this year and I'd imagine they will deal on him more aggressively than So You Think. I know which price is more appealing to me.
 
I'm by no means saying he's going to be a failure, or that he was a poor racehorse. He certainly wasn't and I hope he won't be a failure but I think he's overs at that price. $55k down to $45k-$50k would have been much more realistic in these tough times.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Apr 2012 at 7:14pm
Originally posted by Fremz Fremz wrote:

Question to everyone.... do you think his overseas haunts have increased, decreased or had little to no effect on his Australian service fee.
 
I personally believe the latter. I remember before he went overseas I thought he'd be set somewhere around the 70k mark such was the hype around the horse.


I reckon had he won the Prince Of Wales + The Arc he would be standing at 100,000+ so in effect what he achieved has probably saved Aussie breeders 25,000 or so maybe even more.

I doubt the races that he won in Europe have added to what he would have stood for had he raced exclusively in Australia.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Quezacotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Apr 2012 at 7:19pm
Europe added nothing to his appeal, he was poorly trained and placed by O'Brien.

He was the horse on everyone's lips here before Dato became greedy and sold him off.

He's been slaughtered by jockeys and trainers and now everyone bags the horse, the races he won in irlenad were so crap that you could of sent benchmark 58ers from here and won them..pathetic.

 He will make a lovely stallion and I would not hesitate to send mares to him if I could afford it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ianb Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Apr 2012 at 7:54pm
Well I can't afford it
current stable...Giuliani.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Fremz Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Apr 2012 at 10:05pm
I agree with Quez, I think he will be a star stallion. He's going to appeal to a lot of mares in this country. I believe he is going to have the rare ability to create sprinters right through to stayers, depending on what he is mated with. 
 
The Sadlers Wells line has proven to cross well with Danehill/Danzig line mares, So You Think probably has as much brilliance than any stallion through that line in the world today, and you'd be hard pressed to find one as good looking.
for those about to punt, we salute you...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Quezacotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 May 2012 at 11:02am
He certainly is a handsome type, such regal looks and muscular build, he has to throw some magificent types for sure, and being black he will put out blacks too with the right mares...gotta love a black horse with a white blaze...sharp..!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Quezacotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 May 2012 at 11:06am
Just on service fees..

If he stands for 66k and his first crop won't be seen for 3 years, what chances are there that his fee will drop before the first crop races..?

I'm just thinking that if you wanted to send a mare to him but not pay 66k wait till right before his first crop race and gamble they will be good runners and pop your mare into him right before then...if his books are small, then a reduction in fee would ensue or no..?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote don Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 May 2012 at 2:59pm
The question I always ask myself is "what would his fee be if he turns out to be really successful -say in the top 10 Australian sires?'
In a lot of cases a really successful stallion ends up with a lesser fee than his initial price.
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carche Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 May 2012 at 3:58pm
Originally posted by Quezacotl Quezacotl wrote:

Just on service fees..

If he stands for 66k and his first crop won't be seen for 3 years, what chances are there that his fee will drop before the first crop races..?

I'm just thinking that if you wanted to send a mare to him but not pay 66k wait till right before his first crop race and gamble they will be good runners and pop your mare into him right before then...if his books are small, then a reduction in fee would ensue or no..?

 
Take a look at Lonhro.  Started on $66K.  By 2009 it had dropped to $33K, up to $88K in 2010, down to $77K in 2011, now skyrocketed to $110K this season. 
 
It might be, as in the case with Lonhro & Woodlands/Darley, that a large percentage of the early mares he serves will be those owned by Coolmore who may retain a portion of his yearlings to race under their banner (look at Fastnet Rock and Atlantic Jewel as an example).  I could be wrong of course.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MichaelM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 May 2012 at 4:29pm
Originally posted by Quezacotl Quezacotl wrote:

Just on service fees..

If he stands for 66k and his first crop won't be seen for 3 years, what chances are there that his fee will drop before the first crop races..?

I'm just thinking that if you wanted to send a mare to him but not pay 66k wait till right before his first crop race and gamble they will be good runners and pop your mare into him right before then...if his books are small, then a reduction in fee would ensue or no..?

 
They probably won't drop his advertised price, but would most likely negotiate a reduced fee to try and fill that 4th year book (also generally works that way in the 3rd year too).  Different though when you start talking about these 'superstar' horses when they go to stud, as they generally have little trouble filling them regardless.  Sea the Stars has had no trouble filling his book 3 years in a row without a drop in fee.
 
I tend to try and operate on sending mares to stallions in their 3rd or 4th year due to my reduced budget.  I think you have more to work with than that of a 1st or 2nd year sire, so while it is still a punt you can take some of the guess work out.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MichaelM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 May 2012 at 4:33pm
Originally posted by carche carche wrote:

Originally posted by Quezacotl Quezacotl wrote:

Just on service fees..

If he stands for 66k and his first crop won't be seen for 3 years, what chances are there that his fee will drop before the first crop races..?

I'm just thinking that if you wanted to send a mare to him but not pay 66k wait till right before his first crop race and gamble they will be good runners and pop your mare into him right before then...if his books are small, then a reduction in fee would ensue or no..?

 
Take a look at Lonhro.  Started on $66K.  By 2009 it had dropped to $33K, up to $88K in 2010, down to $77K in 2011, now skyrocketed to $110K this season. 
 
It might be, as in the case with Lonhro & Woodlands/Darley, that a large percentage of the early mares he serves will be those owned by Coolmore who may retain a portion of his yearlings to race under their banner (look at Fastnet Rock and Atlantic Jewel as an example).  I could be wrong of course.
 
In Australia everything is for sale.  They do go and then buy a selected few at the sales, and keep horses to race who don't meet the reserve.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Quezacotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 May 2012 at 4:38pm
Originally posted by MichaelM MichaelM wrote:


Originally posted by Quezacotl Quezacotl wrote:

Just on service fees..

If he stands for 66k and his first crop won't be seen for 3 years, what chances are there that his fee will drop before the first crop races..?

I'm just thinking that if you wanted to send a mare to him but not pay 66k wait till right before his first crop race and gamble they will be good runners and pop your mare into him right before then...if his books are small, then a reduction in fee would ensue or no..?


 
They probably won't drop his advertised price, but would most likely negotiate a reduced fee to try and fill that 4th year book (also generally works that way in the 3rd year too).  Different though when you start talking about these 'superstar' horses when they go to stud, as they generally have little trouble filling them regardless.  Sea the Stars has had no trouble filling his book 3 years in a row without a drop in fee.
 
I tend to try and operate on sending mares to stallions in their 3rd or 4th year due to my reduced budget.  I think you have more to work with than that of a 1st or 2nd year sire, so while it is still a punt you can take some of the guess work out.


Yeah this is what I getting at, it's gamble cause their progeny could be duds or superstars! but it's that third year where you find a crossroads in the stallions career and pricing, and it's here where you might just snag a bargain if he takes off the next few following years..Lonhro is a great example.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sullenberger Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 May 2012 at 9:23pm
Originally posted by Fastnetrock Fastnetrock wrote:



He will be the first 1 booked out so fee is right IMO


Fastnet,fastnet,fastnet ! You will bê the first booked out , u super shagger !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carche Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 May 2012 at 8:55am
Thanks MichaelM for providing your insight knowledge into the breeding game.  This section of the forum is usually out of bounds for me as I've not a clue, but I've gained a greater appreciation thanks to our members who live and breath it and contribute their wealth of knowledge.  Many thanks.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Wortel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 May 2012 at 11:20am
You need to start quality horses off on a high fee to prevent garbage mares bringing the stats down.

I think 66k is very fair and could've been 6 figures given his dual hemisphere G1 performances.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Quezacotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 May 2012 at 11:25am
Originally posted by carche carche wrote:

Thanks MichaelM for providing your insight knowledge into the breeding game.  This section of the forum is usually out of bounds for me as I've not a clue, but I've gained a greater appreciation thanks to our members who live and breath it and contribute their wealth of knowledge.  Many thanks.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote amateur Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 May 2012 at 1:57pm
Originally posted by MichaelM MichaelM wrote:

Originally posted by Biggles Biggles wrote:

What's happened to Starspangledbanner?
 
Fertility issues I believe.
 

I heard the "fertility issues" thing too re SSB - I gather it was mentioned on TVN, but with no detail. Anyone know any more?  He stood his first season in the UK in 2011, with apparently a book of 64 mares (but I don't know how many live foals), then came south for an understandably bigger book of 116 mares, of which only 7 have so far appeared in the Stud Book as "missed".  So if there are indeed "fertility issues", there must be a lot of missed mares not yet returned as such, because that looks like a pretty good percentage so far!  But doesn't that show up within the first 6 weeks or so?

Also, did the "fertility issues" thing apply in the northern hemisphere as well? Odd, if so, because the northern season begins in February, so you'd think they'd have found out there was a problem long before he began here in September?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Run For Fun Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 May 2012 at 2:15pm
As you suggest Amateur the only returns thus far will be in respect of those who've missed or slipped, however generally speaking the majority of breeders don't ususally return mares that've missed until later in the year.  Or in more than the odd case don't return them at all.  So in reality the returns to date don't actually prove much at all just yet.
 
The point about NH covers is well made, so over to others who might know a bit more.
It's hard to soar with eagles...

Cheers
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Fastnetrock Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 May 2012 at 4:07pm
Click on the mares name and you will find most mares got covered by another stallion so wont come up as missed.  Had issues in Ireland then came here and got smashed with 116 mares which is a lot considering they took him out of service half way thru season.  Then went back to Ireland for more.Wacko
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote amateur Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 May 2012 at 4:43pm
Aha! Thanks - I didn't think to check out the individual mares.  But won't they still show in his stallion fertility stats, even if they don't end up "missed" on their own page?  Or will they just disappear into the inevitable gap referred to by RFF between number served and number of mare returns?
 
And you're right, he did indeed go back up north. He's up on the Coolmore Ireland site for the 2012 season with a 2012 fee of 10k in Euros, but his "stud record" tab on the site is just a one-page ad about what a wonderful racehorse he was, and nothing about numbers of 2012 foals or new covers.  Still, if they're prepared to put him out again up north, he can't have been a complete flop up there, so I suspect you're right: he did OK up there, but they overdid it with the book size down here. So no trip south this year at least - not until he's recovered his strength and the dust has settled on an apparently less-than-glorious first season.  And by next year they'll probably have some pretty baby-photos from the north to show us what nice foals he can make (given half a chance...!).
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Quezacotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 May 2012 at 5:05pm
Can't they check fertily before a stallion is sold off to stud to perform duties..?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MichaelM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 May 2012 at 5:48pm
I remembered this thread which covered most of the discussion around Starspangledbanner and his fertility issues and why they don't test for fertility pre-purchase.  http://forum.thoroughbredvillage.com.au/starspangledbanner_topic35393_post595051.html?KW=starspangledbanner#595051
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Run For Fun Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 May 2012 at 5:56pm
Should know the answer to this but don't.
 
How do you identify which mares a stallion covers in a particular season?
 
Any help appreciated.
It's hard to soar with eagles...

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Go to the stallion on the studbook website, click on fertility statistics then click on the year in question.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Run For Fun Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 May 2012 at 6:52pm
Originally posted by MichaelM MichaelM wrote:

Go to the stallion on the studbook website, click on fertility statistics then click on the year in question.
 
Marvelous stuff.  Thanks MichaelM.  Star
It's hard to soar with eagles...

Cheers
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote EverydayImShufflin Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 May 2012 at 8:20am
Coolmore already starting to push him, and deal......... even they know he'll be tough work at 66k!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote furious Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 May 2012 at 9:39am
Are they just going to retire Starspangled Banner or work on him like they did with Foreplay.  Mind you I think Foreplay had better fertility than Starspangle Banner appeared to have.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Quezacotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 May 2012 at 9:54am
Geld him and put him back into work..LOL..!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Munga Rangi Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Jul 2012 at 4:50pm
Out of curiosity, what sort of mares do my learned friends think will be the best match for SYT??
Caveat emptor
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