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Saturday Racing Blog April 21 2018

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Gay3 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Saturday Racing Blog April 21 2018
    Posted: 21 Apr 2018 at 6:58am
Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
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jimbob04 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jimbob04 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2018 at 7:49am
good luck all



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dizzy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2018 at 8:24am
Good morning Gay3, jimbob04 and all. Big smile  Good luck to all. Thumbs Up
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Nick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2018 at 9:47am
Luck all. 

Not a Single Cent/Irukanji/EDD all each
Trapeze Artist
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Long Row Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2018 at 10:08am
Tangled BF, Mr Sneaky BF and Rich Charm 3.2 and some quaddies is my lot for the day.




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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2018 at 10:38am
These are my best today:


Randwick

 

R2 Test The World $5.65/$2.38 - loves this mare, rarely lets me down. Shapes as the winner here again in an albeit open race. Should be on speed and really has a kick when fresh.


R4 Tangled $4.8 from Higher Ground $11 & save Holy Snow $4.8 (deductions to come) - I've taken unders Tangled and can't believe the price around. He's the value bet of the day. Not one of mine - in fact I've never backed him before. He's a non-winner but to be fair he's barely raced outside the top grade. He finds his race here today - 2000m is his pet distance and this isn't the A grade for once. Higher Ground has to take a quantum leap forward here but he's progressive and surely Waller's QLD Derby horse. Holy Snow cost me last start and he goes up in distance and this is harder than the Carbine. Was happy to save but current odds are poison.


R5 Manicure $6/$2.38 - shapes to peak here and looked like she wanted 1400m last start. Had cover from Problem Solver last start but was still deep and worked home stylishly. Should've won but for the on-speed bias. I think she's great odds for an each way bet here.


R6 Outrageous $9 from El Dorado Dreaming $10 - couldn't believe this market with Outrageous priced longer than horses like Long Leaf who he clearly outperformed in the Sires. Then the final field market opens and he's still $7 when I priced him fave. Then the money came! Deserved fave and I think he wins.


R8 Arbeitsam $4.8/$2.1 - the class animal, will be leading and exceptionally hard to run down. Hard fit and in great form. I can't really see them catching him.

 

Caulfield


R1 French Emotion $2.05 – excellent behind the potential star in Quilista first up, then unlucky last start, thrown in at the weights here, won the race last year so shapes to peak for it again. Main danger according to market is a very good mare however she was poor last start before a spell and has returned with two poor trials for her standard. Actually think the price is ok.


R2 Widgee Turf $3.1 – no value in price but how do they turn the tables on him? He was enormous last start. The only thing I say is he has a slight question mark on his strength at the end of a mile. He was lumping 60kg when he fell in at his last attempt at the trip, so a couple kilos less here helps. Will get back but surely too strong late again.


R5 Nature Strip $1.9 – prohibitive odds but should win provided he's forward enough. Very exciting sprinter and should fly fresh. Only danger Deprive is another exciting sprinter who I rate highly, but I don’t like him back 100m to 1100m here. I think nature Strip will just be too sharp for him. Not suited at the weights compared to the fave either.


R6 Cliff’s Edge $1.85 – not much to say here. Needs only to be somewhere near his best form and he walks in.


Doomben


R2 Arizona Wildcat – got on at $26/$7.5, had been backed into $11, then came the scratchings this morning with the wet track and my odds are now $19/$5.6 and she is as short as $6 with Sportsbet. 4 starts for 3 3rds on soft - not ideal as all wins on Good but as long as no worse than soft she hopefully still runs a race for us.


Other than these I have a few bets on the All Aged but the race looks a lottery.  I'm also keen to see what happens with the price for Osborne Bulls. Too short for me at the moment and hoping he eases. Also want to see how the track plays.


Good luck and good punting.

Sunline...simply supreme
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2018 at 11:12am
I think Snippet's Land will run a good race for us at 20's in the last event at Randwick. Underrated horse. It's been running very well of late. I love that Care To Think form.

Barrier 1 is sticky. I would have preferred to draw out. It also had barrier 1 last start and the fence was off that day at Rosehill. It's run was better than it appeared.

Good chance of running top 3. Just needs a bit of luck at the right time.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Prince of Penzance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2018 at 11:24am
Cliffs Edge
Rich Charm
Widgee Turf
That is all.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2018 at 11:37am
I haven't come up with any Specials yet . I'm in WINX withdrawals .

I note I wrote down lay Northern River R1 last night ???    In my state about midnight I would have layed anything, so I better check on my reasons.
My expert know how, on wet surfaces , tells me the inside won't be the place to be at Randwick today.> I know it is a Good3, but the rail is out 6m,----after being out 3m last week so the rails will be the chopped up area again today...

I think, 4 > SO FAR SOKOOL R5 R'dwick might be my ticket to stardom today.   
       
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2018 at 12:08pm
Time for the first in Syd. 1-8-40 for the 1200, low flying , 1-8-06 track record, Deploy.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote scamanda Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2018 at 12:28pm
Good luck today guys.

I'm kicking off with Dissolute in R2 @ $5.50.
In winning form as is Tye Angland ( could have a huge day) which is good but up against Test The World, hence the Enhanced odds.

I think Dothraki has landed in a race that suits him down to the ground. Short but I'm willing to take those odds $3.40.

Outrageous, Osborne Bulls, Manicure and a couple from left field as well.

No big outlays for me but if one of my multis wins I'll be very happy.

I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2018 at 12:28pm
Originally posted by Carioca Carioca wrote:

Time for the first in Syd. 1-8-40 for the 1200, low flying , 1-8-06 track record, Deploy.


Along the fence too Croca .

Best System in town ... back the opposite to what I think.
       
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote stayer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2018 at 12:33pm
This LOOKS the easiest day I've ever seen at Caulfield. Already first short one home and can't see many faves losing today.
"She's going through a growth phase." - GW
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2018 at 12:38pm
I have toyed with that idea Macca, but naa , you do alright.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2018 at 12:39pm
Jay Ford is completely outclassed in town. Please go back to the bush tracks.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2018 at 12:40pm
Track record. On pace, near rail advantaged so far at Rwick. Top ride by Parr to sit there.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote scamanda Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2018 at 12:43pm
Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

Track record. On pace, near rail advantaged so far at Rwick. Top ride by Parr to sit there.

And nothing I've taken will be anywhere near the rail or the lead early.Ouch
Maybe Dothraki but not the others.
I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2018 at 12:47pm
Heading for some carnage/bad luck stories at Rwick if the jocks all come to the same conclusions. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2018 at 12:55pm
Originally posted by stayer stayer wrote:

This LOOKS the easiest day I've ever seen at Caulfield. Already first short one home and can't see many faves losing today.


I have a bad feeling this post is going to be quoted a few times at the end of the day.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Nick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2018 at 1:05pm
Go Burning Passion!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2018 at 1:10pm
Whypeeo, Mr Sneaky & Violate in Brisbane.

Lipstick Lover, Moghul Empire, Viddora, Harmattan & Split Up in Adelaide.

In Melbourne I have specked Aaron Purcell's import in the last Snoano.

Like a few at odds at Randwick. Star Reflection, Dyslexic, Bondi, have backed Le Romain & Brave Smash to beat Trapeze Artist, but also a little the place on Satono Rasen and I think Cool Chap is just about the best bet of the day and think Rising Red and The Pinnacle can run well.

Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2018 at 1:14pm
Not much doubt about the inside lanes being favoured at Rwick. Unacceptable really.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sneck Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2018 at 1:14pm
Dothraki shows his true colors and they're rainbow.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2018 at 1:16pm
Originally posted by Nick Nick wrote:

Go Burning Passion!

Good job Nick. Beautiful ride to the conditions.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2018 at 1:16pm
Why was Flindall surprised at Dothraki stopping? It's been doing that it's whole career. Biggest muncher in the country.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ThreeBears Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2018 at 1:22pm
Good luck today punters. Small bet Tycoon Tiily to kick off.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Nick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2018 at 1:35pm
Go Tangled!

First time he's been my top selection which normally ends in tears :(
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2018 at 1:36pm
The Randwick 1200 has been producing sensational times for some time now . Maybe some work done on the Rise? .   But what a laugh =   R2 winner runs a new record and is credited with running 0.+01 outside standard .
       
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote scamanda Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2018 at 1:45pm
It's a sit back and play day for me now.
I'm not betting in Melbourne full stop unless it's spring and Randwick looks like the inside is red hot.

I'll just have a few 5 and 10 dollar nibbles

Dissolution the first.
I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote scamanda Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Apr 2018 at 1:48pm
Well done Nick
I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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