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Royal Ascot 2018 Selections and Banter

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djebel View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2018 at 6:55pm


STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Brudder_A View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Brudder_A Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2018 at 8:34pm
Chesham Stakes - Natalie's Joy over Beyond Reason
Hardwicke Stakes - Crystal Ocean over Idaho
Windsor Castle Stakes - Kessaar over Junius Brutus
Diamond Jubilee Stakes - Harry Angel over Merchant Navy
Wokingham Stakes - Undrafted over Dreamfield
Queen Alexandra Stakes - Thomas Hobson over Pallasator
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2018 at 8:34pm
An amazing start to the week has turned to hell Dead

Nate The Great
Idaho
Queen Of Bermuda
Redkirk Warrior
Undrafted
Count Octave

Hug




STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ThreeBears Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2018 at 9:34pm
ASCOT
1 - Natalie's Joy
2 - Crystal Ocean
3 - Queen Of Bermuda
4 - Redkirk Warrior
5 - Dreamfield
6 - Thomas Hobson
 
 
 
I also like outsider Duke Of Hazzard in the first and give Bound For Nowhere a squeak in the Jubilee.
 
Interesting sideline - Les Arcs and Patavellian both had similar profiles to Redkirk Warrior having started their careers over longer trips and running at 2000m before dropping back to Gr1 sprint glory. Les Arc won today's race and the July Cup while Patavellin won the Abbaye at the Arc meeting. For what it's worth D'Bai has also had two runs over 2000m.
 
Good luck everyone.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote saintly96 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2018 at 10:39pm
Natalies Joy
Idaho
Junius Brutus
Redkirk Warrior
Dreamfield
Pallasator
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Tontonan View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tontonan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2018 at 10:55pm
Exactly the same Saintly.  Great minds...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tontonan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2018 at 11:04pm
ROYAL ASCOT - DAY 5


      11.30pm 12.05am 12.40am 1.20am 2.00am 2.35am
  Tips Wins Chesham Stakes (Listed) 2 £90,000 1400m Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) 4+ £225,000 2400m Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed) 2 £90,000 1000m Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) 4+ £600,000 1200m Wokingham Stks(Heritage Handicap) 3+ £175,000 1200m Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions) 4+ £90,000 4400m
Early Favs 24 6½½ 11/8 Natalie's Joy
6/1 Beyond Reason
8/13 Crystal Ocean
9/2 Idaho
11/2 Moonlight Rom
7/1 Queen of Berm
11/4 Harry Angel 7/2 Dreamfield 6/4 Thomas Hobson
djebel 24 3 Nate The Great Idaho Queen of Bermuda Redkirk Warrior Undrafted Count Octave
brudder_A 24 4 Natalie's Joy Crystal Ocean Kessaar Harry Angel Undrafted Thomas Hobson
Andi Cap 24 2            
Vixen 23 4 Natalie's Joy Crystal Ocean Moonlight Romance Harry Angel Dreamfield Nearly Caught
saintly96 24 2 Natalie's Joy Idaho Junius Brutus Redkirk Warrior Dreamfield Pallasator
ThreeBears 23 6 Natalie's Joy Crystal Ocean Queen of Bermuda Redkirk Warrior Dreamfield Thomas Hobson
tontonan 24 5 Natalie's Joy Idaho Junius Brutus Redkirk Warrior Dreamfield Pallasator
MattBisogno 23 1  *  *
j.r.b 24 2 Natalie's Joy Crystal Ocean Queen of Bermuda Redkirk Warrior Victory Angel Thomas Hobson
specialweek2 24 3 Natalie's Joy Crystal Ocean Van Beethoven Harry Angel Mr.Lupton Count Octave
AtTheRaces 24 6 Natalie's Joy Crystal Ocean Queen of Bermuda Merchant Navy Growl Thomas Hobson
Timeform 24 5 Natalie's Joy Crystal Ocean Moonlight Romance The Tin Man Dreamfield Thomas Hobson
RacingPost 24 2 Natalie's Joy Crystal Ocean Junius Brutus Merchant Navy Mr Lupton Thomas Hobson
1ST                
2ND                
3RD                
                 

 

*Matt Bisogno has not posted his tips tonight.  Given that he has only managed 1 winner from 24 races I think I understand why....

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2018 at 11:15pm
If anyone likes something in the Jubilee other than the two Aussies, my advice to you would be to take the tote. You'll get overs.

All the patriotic money will be on the Aussie horses and as a result they start at massive unders which then of course creates juicy odds for the others in the field.

Happens every time a horse with Australian interest runs abroad. There's some absolute mugs out there l swear!

As it stands right now on the VIC tab =

Merchant Navy $3.20
Redkirk Warrior $2.20

Currently $12,000 in the pool. That will get to over 50k. So if you like something else you can bet with confidence knowing that you won't be affecting the price too much.

All the best.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AndiCap Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2018 at 11:39pm
ARTHUR KITT(GB)         
CRYSTAL OCEAN(GB)       
SOLDIER'S CALL(GB)      
HARRY ANGEL(IRE)        
TOMMY TAYLOR(USA)       
FORT JEFFERSON(GB)      
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote carche Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jun 2018 at 12:13am
C'mon Redkirk Warrior. Hope this year's Lightning and Newmarket form come to the fore tonight Thumbs Up
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote ThreeBears Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jun 2018 at 1:49am
Wd Andi. You, me and D had the tri between us. Clap
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jun 2018 at 1:55am
I think the American is the value in the Jubilee, he should be close enough and at 16/1+ seems worth a EW ticket.



STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ThreeBears Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jun 2018 at 2:01am

Agree. As posted earlier he and the third horse in race one were my value runners for the night.

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Tontonan View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Tontonan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jun 2018 at 2:11am
Well done Andi.  That's a hat trick !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ThreeBears Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jun 2018 at 2:13am
No disappointment there. You can rely on the Stoute  horses. Thumbs Up
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote saintly96 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jun 2018 at 2:15am
Originally posted by Tontonan Tontonan wrote:

Exactly the same Saintly.  Great minds...


Really? I am not sure great minds is the right quote mate, the way they are going.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote ThreeBears Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jun 2018 at 2:59am
Andi white hot Thumbs Up
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ThreeBears Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jun 2018 at 3:09am
TAB 4.0 fixed Redkirk - Betfair 7.0
 
Bend over punters!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ThreeBears Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jun 2018 at 3:17am
8.0 best price at Betfair back to 6.2 now
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote saintly96 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jun 2018 at 3:33am
Well done to the Aussie 3 year old.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jun 2018 at 3:40am
I thought he got beat watching it live! Pleasantly surprised!

Redkirk never fired a shot.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ThreeBears Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jun 2018 at 3:43am
Good effort from my e/w longshot from America ... but even better from Merchant Navy. Clap
 
 
Writing on the wall early from Redkirk for mine. Neither held up out the back or leading. Not a sit behind the leaders type for mine. Does best when fired right up or switched right off. Not sure why they  went with Dettori. Confused
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tontonan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jun 2018 at 4:21am
That was atrocious work from the starter (and excellent work from the TV director) and Harry Angel never had a prayer.  

There have been a couple of things this week that have raised my eyebrows at Royal Ascot.  The farrier that was reshoe-ing  Jack Watts was bloody awful by comparison with the work I have seen Australian farriers do.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jun 2018 at 4:52am
Well done to those who did well.

I think I went 2 winners from 30 races. 0 from the last 27. 🤔


STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Tontonan View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tontonan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jun 2018 at 5:27am
By winners

Tipster Tips Wins Return Profit/Loss
Early Favs 30 7½½ 38.00 +8.00
AtTheRaces 30 8 33.50 +3.50
ThreeBears 29 7 44.25 +15.25
tontonan 30 6 33.75 +3.75
Timeform 30 6 22.75 -7.25
Andi Cap 30 5 35.25 +5.00
brudder_A 30 5 25.50 -4.50
Vixen 29 5 19.75 -9.25
RacingPost 30 4 19.25 -10.75
specialweek2 30 4 17.75 -12.25
saintly96 30 3 15.75 -14.25
djebel 30 3 12.75 -17.25
j.r.b 30 3 12.75 -17.25
MattBisogno 23 1 3.25 -19.75

By flat stakes return

Tipster Tips Wins Return Profit/Loss
ThreeBears 29 7 44.25 +15.25
Early Favs 30 7½½ 38.00 +8.00
Andi Cap 30 5 35.25 +5.00
tontonan 30 6 33.75 +3.75
AtTheRaces 30 8 33.50 +3.50
brudder_A 30 5 25.50 -4.50
Timeform 30 6 22.75 -7.25
Vixen 29 5 19.75 -9.25
RacingPost 30 4 19.25 -10.75
specialweek2 30 4 17.75 -12.25
saintly96 30 3 15.75 -14.25
djebel 30 3 12.75 -17.25
j.r.b 30 3 12.75 -17.25
MattBisogno 23 1 3.25 -19.75

 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Tontonan Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jun 2018 at 5:37am
I should explain the flat stakes return is based on SP and almost every winner started shorter than the early markets.   Here are the results from the final day -

      11.30pm 12.05am 12.40am 1.20am 2.00am 2.35am
  Tips Wins Chesham Stakes (Listed) 2 £90,000 1400m Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) 4+ £225,000 2400m Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed) 2 £90,000 1000m Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) 4+ £600,000 1200m Wokingham Stks(Heritage Handicap) 3+ £175,000 1200m Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions) 4+ £90,000 4400m
Early Favs 30 7½½ 11/8 Natalie's Joy
6/1 Beyond Reason
8/13 CrystalOcean
9/2 Idaho
11/2 Moonlight Rom
7/1 Queen of Berm
11/4 Harry Angel 7/2 Dreamfield 6/4 Thomas Hobson
djebel 30 3 Nate The Great Idaho Queen of Bermuda Redkirk Warrior Undrafted Count Octave
brudder_A 30 5 Natalie's Joy Crystal Ocean Kessaar Harry Angel Undrafted Thomas Hobson
Andi Cap 30 5 Arthur Kitt Crystal Ocean Soldier's Call Harry Angel Tommy Taylor Fort Jefferson
Vixen 29 5 Natalie's Joy Crystal Ocean Moonlight Romance Harry Angel Dreamfield Nearly Caught
saintly96 30 3 Natalie's Joy Idaho Junius Brutus Redkirk Warrior Dreamfield Pallasator
ThreeBears 29 7 Natalie's Joy Crystal Ocean Queen of Bermuda Redkirk Warrior Dreamfield Thomas Hobson
tontonan 30 6 Natalie's Joy Idaho Junius Brutus Redkirk Warrior Dreamfield Pallasator
MattBisogno 23 1            
j.r.b 30 3 Natalie's Joy Crystal Ocean Queen of Bermuda Redkirk Warrior Victory Angel Thomas Hobson
specialweek2 30 4 Natalie's Joy Crystal Ocean Van Beethoven Harry Angel Mr.Lupton Count Octave
AtTheRaces 30 8 Natalie's Joy Crystal Ocean Queen of Bermuda Merchant Navy Growl Thomas Hobson
Timeform 30 6 Natalie's Joy Crystal Ocean Moonlight Romance The Tin Man Dreamfield Thomas Hobson
RacingPost 30 4 Natalie's Joy Crystal Ocean Junius Brutus Merchant Navy Mr Lupton Thomas Hobson
1ST     Arthur Kitt Crystal Ocean Soldier's Call Merchant Navy Bacchus Pallasator
2ND     Nate the Great Red Verdon Sabre City Light Dreamfield Renneti
3RD     Duke of Hazzard   Dom Carlos Bound for Now Major Jumbo Count Octave
      13/2 4/7* 12/1 4/1 33/1 11/2
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Vixen Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jun 2018 at 11:47am
Silly me chose Neally Caught over Pallasator..  Thanks for keeping tabs Tontonan. Great stuff.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Brudder_A Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jun 2018 at 3:34pm
Nice bantor for this wonderful meeting!

Thanks Tontonon for keeping tabs on the whole process and what was going on.

Now my thoughts.

As usual a fantastic meeting. Superb racing. Just to get this meeting and be part of it should be a goal of anyone interested in horse racing. From ownership, training, punting, fashion, culture and weather. It was tops.

From a punting and tipping point of view I made some elementary mistakes which I should of corrected after reviewing what was available through prior knowledge.

For example I would never would of back Cracksman add the odds offered so my real choice would of been the winner. But going like a typical sheep in a herd the mentality was not to take notice of his previous run and know that he was very vulnerable. Also in the Gold Cup I think I was hoping for a winner rather playing the winner knowing full well that the form and the class was written all over.

Anyway, I enjoyed seeing the international competition on display. I knew Mechant Navy would give a fine performance.  Great prep for him to win in front of The Queen. And as usual the Yank contribution was worthy of noting as Wesley Ward brings over raw talent which performs admirably.

Cheers to all who participated!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote ThreeBears Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jun 2018 at 4:01pm
Fine effort on the final day from Andi and excellent work all round from Tonto. Thumbs Up
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote AndiCap Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 Jun 2018 at 5:08pm
Thanks Lads
Great effort Tonto!

Soldier's Call....God bless 
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