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Redkirk Warrior

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Second Chance View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Jun 2018 at 6:54pm
$5 and $7 are both gone, well more to the point the best I can find is around $4.50 and $6.50.

A bit worried that RW will have had about 5 minutes to re-acclimatize, but if you reckon one of them can win the TAB offer appears pretty attractive.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote VOYAGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Jun 2018 at 9:08pm
If you watch the work up the straight at Newmarket, then Redkirk has settled in well.

He looked to handle the undulating course well, which should see him do well at Ascot.

I would be interested in how the Newmarket sprinters, have done in te Ascot races over the years, as it looks to me the rise in the last two hundred at Newmarket is more severe than at Ascot.
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TJMitchell Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Jun 2018 at 9:18pm
He's raced at Ascot before, albeit on the round course but that takes in the last 800 or so of the straight course
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Baghdad Bob Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Jun 2018 at 9:41pm
Originally posted by MJB MJB wrote:

TAB have a special up which looks very enticing...

Either Redkirk Warrior OR Merchant Navy to win the Diamond Jubilee @ $4.20.

I don't know the English form but what l do know is our sprinters are usually better than anything the UK has to offer. That theory has been good to me over the years.

$4.20 looks a bet to me. Two bites at the cherry.


Presently on Betfair Merchant Navy is $5 and Redkirk Warrior $6.20, admittedly you can only get on for peanuts, however backing both at those odds is 36 % which equates to $2.77. Even after paying commission on your winnings $4.20 does appear as overs. Is there a the limit on the bet the TAB is allowing ?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Jun 2018 at 11:30pm
$100 max
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 18 Jun 2018 at 11:34pm
Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

$100 max


Merchant Navy a special
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote acacia alba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 12:05am
Originally posted by VOYAGER VOYAGER wrote:

If you watch the work up the straight at Newmarket, then Redkirk has settled in well.

He looked to handle the undulating course well, which should see him do well at Ascot.

I would be interested in how the Newmarket sprinters, have done in te Ascot races over the years, as it looks to me the rise in the last two hundred at Newmarket is more severe than at Ascot.


Where do you go to watch work at Newmarket ??
Which gallop did he work on ?
animals before people.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 12:38am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ThreeBears Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 1:19am
You could get around $11 RW last week for the Jubilee if you shopped around.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote MJB Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 1:19am
Gents, the bet does state $100 max but if you bet using an ebt machine at a tab/gaming venue you can pump out as many $100 tickets as you like! Which l've certainly taken advantage of.

I don't know why they say $100 max when there's ways around it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ThreeBears Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 1:24am
And were prepared to lose your dough if it doesn't run.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ThreeBears Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 1:25am
Perhaps because they can lay off in the UK at a better price than 4.2
They're using your cash to make money. Wink
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ThreeBears Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 1:35am
Ahh, apologies I read that wrong. Thought it was for MN only.
 
Don't drink and punt after 11pm. LOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sneck Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 1:36am
Good punting MJB

Both horses must run or bet is void ThreeBears.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ThreeBears Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 2:56am
Ok cheers Sneck. I'm on Redkirk regardless.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 12:11pm
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

$100 max


Merchant Navy a special


BETFAIR are giving a 30% price boost on both of them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shawy38 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 12:14pm
I wouldn’t be surprised if they both missed a place.
Redkirk is a Flemington horse IMO. Doesn’t fire anywhere else.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 12:23pm
Originally posted by Sneck Sneck wrote:

Good punting MJB

Both horses must run or bet is void ThreeBears.




UBET had one for the 2yo magic millions in January with top 3 in betting and if one was scratched AND neither of the other two won it was money back. IE if one was scratched it was a free throw at the stumps.

This one still very good with plenty of free cash to be made (barring a scratching at the barrier)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote acacia alba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 1:35pm

Thank You.   I am  a bit slow finding all this stuff.  Appreciate the help everyone gives me.
animals before people.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote 3blindmice Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 2:50pm
MN won't miss a place if O'Brien has him anywhere near his Newmarket form.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 4:37pm
Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

MN won't miss a place if O'Brien has him anywhere near his Newmarket form.


MN is a few months more mature now and has been so honest.

   Punters dream, horses like him.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote saintly96 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 4:37pm
Matt Chapman on SEN this morning said he doubts either Aussie can run a place.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 4:47pm
I hope some of you learnt something when IMPENDING was being backed at $4.4 in the Stradbroke , PP into a 150% market.

   Same applies with these two OZ horses now ... Miles unders in a 150% market on Betfair.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 4:50pm
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

MN won't miss a place if O'Brien has him anywhere near his Newmarket form.


MN is a few months more mature now and has been so honest.

   Punters dream, horses like him.

Any concern that Redkirk beat him last time and he meets him better again at the weights?
Sunline...simply supreme
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 4:57pm
Originally posted by Sunline Sunline wrote:

Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

MN won't miss a place if O'Brien has him anywhere near his Newmarket form.


MN is a few months more mature now and has been so honest.

   Punters dream, horses like him.


Any concern that Redkirk beat him last time and he meets him better again at the weights?


I have $100 up there now to lay him at $5.9.( More if necessary)
He has travelled and my price is purely about trading.
He will get out closer to $10
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 5:01pm
I'll be surprised if he gets out to $10 but I delegate pricing authority to you, Macca, as a far better judge of a price than me.
Sunline...simply supreme
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Atreus Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 5:29pm
Only Australian trained winners I can see are Black Caviar and Choisir so 2 winners in 15 years

The quality of Aussie racing at the top has slumped in the last few years with Winx and Black Caviar both able to string together 25 successive wins (BC having 24 of those in Australia).  This suggests non competitive racing in Aussie G1s in the modern era

The fact that Black Caviar was only able to fall in to win by a head after all her consecutive wins in Australia makes me think the Aussie form this year won't be up to the standard required.  Redkirk Warrior and Merchant Navy are not as good as Black Caviar was
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 5:32pm
Originally posted by Sunline Sunline wrote:

I'll be surprised if he gets out to $10 but I delegate pricing authority to you, Macca, as a far better judge of a price than me.


ATM the Betfair betting , all in % is 157%.    SO the runners will ease to bring it down to near the acceptable 100% ....      Huge unders .

Remember Impending .... $4.4 to $8.    Not rocket science
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sunline Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 5:39pm
Totally agreed re Impending and you were spot on there - price and performance.
Sunline...simply supreme
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Jun 2018 at 5:47pm
Originally posted by Sunline Sunline wrote:

Totally agreed re Impending and you were spot on there - price and performance.


The best of plans come unstuck ...    I made good money out of Impending but also layed the winner and sat on it as a loss. ..       No real damage but a good example of the perils of GREED.    
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