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Redkirk Warrior |
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Second Chance
Champion Joined: 02 Dec 2007 Status: Online Points: 45812 |
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$5 and $7 are both gone, well more to the point the best I can find is around $4.50 and $6.50.
A bit worried that RW will have had about 5 minutes to re-acclimatize, but if you reckon one of them can win the TAB offer appears pretty attractive.
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VOYAGER
Champion Joined: 03 Aug 2007 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 18737 |
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If you watch the work up the straight at Newmarket, then Redkirk has settled in well.
He looked to handle the undulating course well, which should see him do well at Ascot. I would be interested in how the Newmarket sprinters, have done in te Ascot races over the years, as it looks to me the rise in the last two hundred at Newmarket is more severe than at Ascot. |
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Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise
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TJMitchell
Champion Joined: 29 Jun 2014 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 16917 |
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He's raced at Ascot before, albeit on the round course but that takes in the last 800 or so of the straight course
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Baghdad Bob
Champion Joined: 10 Feb 2010 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 13695 |
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Presently on Betfair Merchant Navy is $5 and Redkirk Warrior $6.20, admittedly you can only get on for peanuts, however backing both at those odds is 36 % which equates to $2.77. Even after paying commission on your winnings $4.20 does appear as overs. Is there a the limit on the bet the TAB is allowing ?
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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$100 max
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 18 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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Merchant Navy a special |
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acacia alba
Champion Joined: 30 Oct 2010 Location: Hunter Valley Status: Offline Points: 41536 |
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Where do you go to watch work at Newmarket ?? Which gallop did he work on ?
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animals before people.
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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ThreeBears
Champion Joined: 13 Apr 2017 Status: Offline Points: 2911 |
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You could get around $11 RW last week for the Jubilee if you shopped around.
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MJB
Champion Joined: 30 Nov 2017 Location: Melbourne Status: Offline Points: 1601 |
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Gents, the bet does state $100 max but if you bet using an ebt machine at a tab/gaming venue you can pump out as many $100 tickets as you like! Which l've certainly taken advantage of.
I don't know why they say $100 max when there's ways around it. |
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ThreeBears
Champion Joined: 13 Apr 2017 Status: Offline Points: 2911 |
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And were prepared to lose your dough if it doesn't run.
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ThreeBears
Champion Joined: 13 Apr 2017 Status: Offline Points: 2911 |
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Perhaps because they can lay off in the UK at a better price than 4.2 They're using your cash to make money.
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ThreeBears
Champion Joined: 13 Apr 2017 Status: Offline Points: 2911 |
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Ahh, apologies I read that wrong. Thought it was for MN only.
Don't drink and punt after 11pm.
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Sneck
Champion Joined: 16 Feb 2013 Location: Payout Queue Status: Offline Points: 7555 |
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Good punting MJB
Both horses must run or bet is void ThreeBears. |
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ThreeBears
Champion Joined: 13 Apr 2017 Status: Offline Points: 2911 |
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Ok cheers Sneck. I'm on Redkirk regardless.
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 18 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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BETFAIR are giving a 30% price boost on both of them. |
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Shawy38
Champion Joined: 13 Jun 2015 Status: Offline Points: 17414 |
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I wouldn’t be surprised if they both missed a place.
Redkirk is a Flemington horse IMO. Doesn’t fire anywhere else. |
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ExceedAndExcel
Champion Joined: 20 Dec 2008 Status: Offline Points: 16245 |
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UBET had one for the 2yo magic millions in January with top 3 in betting and if one was scratched AND neither of the other two won it was money back. IE if one was scratched it was a free throw at the stumps. This one still very good with plenty of free cash to be made (barring a scratching at the barrier) |
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acacia alba
Champion Joined: 30 Oct 2010 Location: Hunter Valley Status: Offline Points: 41536 |
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Thank You. I am a bit slow finding all this stuff. Appreciate the help everyone gives me.
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animals before people.
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3blindmice
Champion Joined: 22 Oct 2012 Status: Offline Points: 18105 |
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MN won't miss a place if O'Brien has him anywhere near his Newmarket form.
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 18 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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MN is a few months more mature now and has been so honest. Punters dream, horses like him. |
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saintly96
Champion Joined: 12 Jun 2008 Location: Nunya biz Status: Offline Points: 12926 |
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Matt Chapman on SEN this morning said he doubts either Aussie can run a place.
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 18 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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I hope some of you learnt something when IMPENDING was being backed at $4.4 in the Stradbroke , PP into a 150% market.
Same applies with these two OZ horses now ... Miles unders in a 150% market on Betfair. |
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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Any concern that Redkirk beat him last time and he meets him better again at the weights?
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Sunline...simply supreme
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 18 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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I have $100 up there now to lay him at $5.9.( More if necessary) He has travelled and my price is purely about trading. He will get out closer to $10 |
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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I'll be surprised if he gets out to $10 but I delegate pricing authority to you, Macca, as a far better judge of a price than me.
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Sunline...simply supreme
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Atreus
Champion Joined: 25 Nov 2014 Status: Offline Points: 329 |
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Only Australian trained winners I can see are Black Caviar and Choisir so 2 winners in 15 years The quality of Aussie racing at the top has slumped in the last few years with Winx and Black Caviar both able to string together 25 successive wins (BC having 24 of those in Australia). This suggests non competitive racing in Aussie G1s in the modern era The fact that Black Caviar was only able to fall in to win by a head after all her consecutive wins in Australia makes me think the Aussie form this year won't be up to the standard required. Redkirk Warrior and Merchant Navy are not as good as Black Caviar was
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 18 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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ATM the Betfair betting , all in % is 157%. SO the runners will ease to bring it down to near the acceptable 100% .... Huge unders . Remember Impending .... $4.4 to $8. Not rocket science |
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Sunline
Champion Joined: 01 Jul 2008 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 22302 |
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Totally agreed re Impending and you were spot on there - price and performance.
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Sunline...simply supreme
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 18 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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The best of plans come unstuck ... I made good money out of Impending but also layed the winner and sat on it as a loss. .. No real damage but a good example of the perils of GREED. |
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