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Punting advice

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mayor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Punting advice
    Posted: 13 Jun 2017 at 11:07am
I've been including a paragraph or two of punting advice in the weekly newsletter which I hope you're all signed up to. (Go here to subscribe: Newsletter).

Can you help me with some new topics or words of wisdom that would help punters? What's one of your trusted strategies, things to avoid, handy tips.... anything from jockeys, to trainers, market flucs, track conditions, horse's preparation, etc... just give me some ideas. I can expand on them or you can write your thoughts in detail, any help appreciated. Credit will be given.

Also, any thoughts on new features for the newsletter is kindly appreciated.

Many thanks!

Regards,
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote ARDTOWIN Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jun 2017 at 11:00am
Morning Mayor!
165 views and not 1 reply surprises me.

A PLAN/EXPECTATIONS/GREED ..A great starting point 

I think once you establish what you want to win from your horse racing investments.I have investments in shares,and when those share drop daily it dosnt phase me 1 little bit ,yet when I have a losing day at the races I take it personal and kick the cat!![weird that].

Learn to think with a "Positive Expectancy" and with a good plan you will succeed and be profitable in the long-term. It is important to keep your expectations realistic, focused and attainable. If you want instant wealth, forget racing and buy a lottery ticket. 

As from the 1st APRIL 2016 I decide that 1 want to expect a daily return of  .5% daily.
3 strategys returning .5% daily betting auto with bots.
A bank of  $5000  returns me $25 daily x 7 eq $175 weekly = $9100 yearly..
A passive return.
Since then I now have 6 strategies working. 


IM WEIGHING THESE DOWN.. Starting date. 16/2/2017.
TOTAL..PROFIT 13.87 UNITS.
updated 9ND JUNE
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mayor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Jun 2017 at 11:54am
Thanks so much ARDTOWIN Thumbs Up, I can develop something from those ideas, cheers. Yeah, I think the lack of response from so many readers means that most punters want to keep their strategies to themselves, which is understandable. I like your philosophy for long term profitability. I think the corporates rely on punters losing over the long term, which is the basis behind their "free bets to join" offer. They know they'll get it back eventually. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sneck Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Jun 2017 at 5:17pm
Since you're giving out freebets to people who sign up through the site you should explain to them how to get max value out of these bets. It's pretty simple, the bigger the odds the less value you lose.

a.Winning 200 freebet at 1/1 returns $200 whilst winning $200 bet at 1/1 returns $400.
b.Winning 200 freebet at 10/1 returns $2000 whilst winning $200 bet at 10/1 returns $2200.

In example a. you lost 50% of your return whilst in example b. you lost only 10% of your return.

Of course you need to way up how big your bank is and how important $200 is to you to find your risk vs. reward sweet spot. 

Other people have written about this with more clarity than me but the principle is the same.





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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mayor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2017 at 10:24am
Am I missing something? I don't understand your point Sneck. The $200 is your money (stake), I don't see any difference in what you actually profit by. The $200 in the $2200 return was your money anyway. Can anyone shed any light on what this means? Mayor

Originally posted by Sneck Sneck wrote:

Since you're giving out freebets to people who sign up through the site you should explain to them how to get max value out of these bets. It's pretty simple, the bigger the odds the less value you lose.
a.Winning 200 freebet at 1/1 returns $200 whilst winning $200 bet at 1/1 returns $400.
b.Winning 200 freebet at 10/1 returns $2000 whilst winning $200 bet at 10/1 returns $2200.
In example a. you lost 50% of your return whilst in example b. you lost only 10% of your return.
Of course you need to way up how big your bank is and how important $200 is to you to find your risk vs. reward sweet spot. 
Other people have written about this with more clarity than me but the principle is the same.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote SkyDancer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2017 at 11:24am
As long as you back winners that's all that matters
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sneck Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jun 2017 at 12:05pm
Originally posted by Mayor Mayor wrote:

Am I missing something? I don't understand your point Sneck. The $200 is your money (stake), I don't see any difference in what you actually profit by. The $200 in the $2200 return was your money anyway. Can anyone shed any light on what this means? Mayor

Originally posted by Sneck Sneck wrote:

Since you're giving out freebets to people who sign up through the site you should explain to them how to get max value out of these bets. It's pretty simple, the bigger the odds the less value you lose.
a.Winning 200 freebet at 1/1 returns $200 whilst winning $200 bet at 1/1 returns $400.
b.Winning 200 freebet at 10/1 returns $2000 whilst winning $200 bet at 10/1 returns $2200.
In example a. you lost 50% of your return whilst in example b. you lost only 10% of your return.
Of course you need to way up how big your bank is and how important $200 is to you to find your risk vs. reward sweet spot. 
Other people have written about this with more clarity than me but the principle is the same.
You need to consider that you don't get your stake back with a freebet, can you intuitively understand why placing a freebet at odds of 1.20 is a bad move?

To go back to my example. 

If you put the 200 freebet on a horse at 2.00 and it wins you will get a return of $200. If you then put your $200 return on a 11.00 chance and it wins you will get a return of $2,200. You only gained $200 extra than if you just put the freebet on the 11.00 chance from the start.

However, if you put the 200 freebet on a horse at 11.00 and it wins you will get a return of $2,000. If you then put your $2,000 return on a 2.00 chance and it wins you will get a return of $4,000. 

I repeat, the bigger the odds the less value you lose from your freebet because the stake represents a smaller amount of the return. So the fact that you don't get the stake back becomes less important.

If anyone can explain this with more clarity please feel free to do so.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Sneck Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jun 2017 at 12:07pm
I couldn't find a good article discussing this because matched betting is coming up as the response. Here's something that touches upon it.

How to maximise your bonus bets


With all the Sign Up and promotional bonus bets out there offered by bookmakers it's good to know what’s the best way to turn those bonus bets into risk free cash in your pocket!


A lot of punters get those big bonus bets and don’t want to waste them so decide to throw them on something at short odds just to try to ensure they get something back. But because the bookmakers keep the stake from those bonus bets this is actually a terrible strategy as you are just giving away money to the bookies.
Below we will show you how to convert those bonus bets into over 70% cash without risking anything!


Let's say you have signed up to Sportsbet and have a $100 Bonus Bet from them.

First thing you want to do is find a market to bet on where
Sportsbet has the top odds about a selection. Preferably you want the the odds you are taking at Sportsbet to be over $4 because the larger the odds you place the bonus bet on the easier it is to make more back when you lay it off.

An event with a market percentage of as close to 100% or less between Sportsbet and another bookmaker is best.

For this example we will use the ATP Tennis match up between Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic

After comparing the odds between 
Sportsbet and all other bookmakers we have found that Unibet offers the best odds about the opposing selection.

Nadal is paying $4.90 at
Sportsbet
While Djokovic is paying $1.23 at Unibet

At Sportsbet you will place your $100 bonus bet on Nadal @ $4.90

Which will return $390 if Nadal wins, because most bonus bets don’t allow you to keep the stake amount

After this you will then divide that return of $390 by Djokovic’s odds of $1.23
$390 / $1.23 = $317.07

Next at Unibet
we will place $317.07 on Djokovic @ $1.23

Which will return $390 if Djokovic wins


Now our 2 possible results are:

Nadal wins
$390 return at
Sportsbet, minus the $317.07 lost a Unibet for a $72.93 profit

Djokovic wins
$390 return at Unibet, minus the $317.07 stake for a $72.93 profit

You have now turned your $100 bonus bet into about $72.93 cash (72.93%) risk free





Edited by Mayor - 26 Jun 2017 at 1:30pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Sneck Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jun 2017 at 12:09pm
In the example from the article, think about what would happen if you placed the freebet on Djokovic at odds of 1.23.

You get a lot less of a return.


Edited by Mayor - 26 Jun 2017 at 12:46pm
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mayor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Jun 2017 at 12:47pm
That's really smart Sneck, thank you so much!
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