Still value in my opinion.

I think Kings will Dream is way under the odds. More dour type.

Avilius can sustain a long sprint.

(1) The Directors may in their absolute discretion exclude any horse or horses from the race, whether the safety limit of 24 horses at final acceptance time shall be reached or not, and if such exclusion occurs, and more than 24 final acceptors remain, balloting of surplus horses will continue in the normal manner to its conclusion.

The winner of the following, if any should be a nomination and a first, second and final acceptor for the 2018 Lexus Melbourne Cup, shall be exempt from any ballot on this race:

(2) Subject always to the Directors' absolute discretion, as stated, remaining final acceptors in excess of the safety limit of 24 horses shall be eliminated in the following order, until the safety limit is reached:

Horses OTHER THAN those that have registered a “Relevant Race Performance”, as set out below:

Relevant Race Performances

A) since 1 February 2017 inclusive, won or was placed 2nd or 3rd in an internationally recognised Group or Graded flat race run over 2300 metres or further; OR won or was placed 2nd or 3rd in the Queensland Derby, Queensland Oaks or Brisbane Cup OR

B) since 1 February 2017 inclusive, was placed 4th or 5th in an internationally recognised Group 1 or Grade 1 flat race run over 2300 metres or further in which horses older than 3 years old could run, OR

C) since 1 February 2017 inclusive, won an internationally recognised Listed flat race run over 2300 metres or further, OR

D) since 1 February 2017 inclusive, won or was placed 2nd or 3rd in the York Ebor (UK) or Champions & Chater Cup (HK), OR

E) since 1 February 2017 inclusive, won the Northumberland Plate (UK), Cesarewitch (UK), or Queen Mother Memorial Cup (HK), OR

F) was placed 6th, 7th or 8th in the 2018 MRC Caulfield Cup, OR

G) was placed 2nd or 3rd in the 2018 MVRC Cox Plate, OR

H) won the 2018 VRC Seppelt Turnbull Stakes, OR

I) won or was placed 2nd or 3rd in the 2016 Melbourne Cup, OR

J) won the 2016 Caulfield Cup

Should the number of such horses exceed the number of horses required to be eliminated from the

race, then such elimination shall be effected by order of the lowest appended weight figure against

the benchmark weight for individual horses, as the case may be.

Horses in this clause (2) with the same lowest appended weight figure against the benchmark weight for individual horses, as the case may be, shall be eliminated at the discretion of the Directors.

(3) If, after Balloting Clause (2) has been exhausted, excess horses remain, then subject to the

exercise of the Directors’ discretion, elimination of such horses shall be effected by order of the

lowest appended weight figure against the benchmark weight for individual horses, as the case may be.

Horses in this clause (3) with the same lowest appended weight figure against the benchmark weight for individual horses, as the case may be, shall be eliminated in order of lowest aggregate prizemoney received in “Relevant Race Performances” since 1 February 2016 inclusive. Horses equal in both of these respects shall be eliminated at the discretion of the Directors.

Well, if Winx was nominated and paid up she wouldn't get a run unless she won the Turnbull on Saturday or the Cox Plate (the point is moot as she will probably win both.) 

Curiously the directors claim the absolute power to exclude any horse/s but not to include them.  You must qualify by the ballot or you cannot race.  Them the rules.

Very interesting.I like kings will dream.What did you make of his run?.

Toss of the coin job for mine with relative barriers crucial.

I don't make a lot of his run. I think it was a solid run, but he was fading going to the line. Youngstar was actually pulling away from that field on the line. We saw a horse step up and try go with Winx when challenged. It was a gallant effort by Youngstar. She is very tough. I think she wins the Caulfield Cup fairly well. She will be suited over 2400m and further. Very special horse and is being overlooked right now because of how great a performance Winx was.

You need to stop looking at it like fading and more like not having the top speed they had. The horses were running the quickest sectionals of the race at the end. It will be completely different in a race like the Caulfield Cup with some modicum of pressure.

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/47-remain-in-2018-caulfield-cup-after-second-acceptances-20181009" rel="nofollow - https://www.racenet.com.au/news/47-remain-in-2018-caulfield-cup-after-second-acceptances-20181009

Lol, why?

On average its priced around $4.5, and barely finishes 3 lengths off them, or wins.

But I guess Japan had had some quakes and typhoons recently. Could be a factor.

Of the others, HOMESMAN and THE TAJ MAHAL look nice types. 

I'm on YOUNGSTAR for the MELBOURNE CUP. 

TOSEN BASIL's definitely one to keep an eye out for.

I like him a lot, very honest, a winner too, has come back well, def in the mix, but the other two just seems too well weighted ... barrier draw could change things too.

Is this the same Youngstar that raced past KWD last start? KWD looks to be too have come back more as a 2000m horse than a 2400m horse.

Anyway this is how I see it.

Youngstar and KWD are the 2 best weighted imo. But if Jaameh gets a run then he could well blow them all away.

Most of the internationals have to carry more weight than the Aussie horses, and are very capable.

But they are used to carrying 60kgs against others with 60kgs.

Best Solution gets top weight 57.5kgs with Sound Check and Duretto both weighted to beat him on their last meetings. Duretto especially.

Homesman is the best of Lloyds horses. Melham riding and his Caul Stakes run was merely a pipe opener.

Youngstar to win. Light weight ,top jockey and peaking for this after her 2nd to Winx.

KWD, Homesman, Duretto next in no particular order.

Jaameh if he gets a run. 

I had The Cliffsofmoher on top.

Something bothers me about the race this year.

I think the swoopers are going to be too far back.

I keep watching the replay of the 2018 AJC Derby.

Ace High is so bloody tough.

He and Levendi streeted the field, and Ace High looked like he could do another lap.

If Ace High corners anywhere near the lead in the Caulfield Cup, lets say 3 lengths from the lead, you can just see him chiming in at the 400m, lengthening, and getting a gap from the field and being too hard to run down.

Those coming from the back, are going to have to run a very very serous race to catch Ace High at the 100m

Somewhere within the final furlong, Ace High is going to look the winner.

In fact, I simply dont think they will catch him. He will be the winner.

At around $13, plus odds boosting, maybe $15/$16, he is the value bet.

You just know he is going to keep going.

Dont be so fast to rule a line through outsiders in the Caulfield Cup.

Just some off the top of my head.

1996; ARCTIC SCENT  $60

1998 TAUFAN'S MELODY $80.  LISA'S GAME ran 2nd at $80

2008: ALL THE GOOD:  $40  NOM DU JEU ran 2nd at $40

2009: VIEWED  $40

2010: DESCARADO $40.  HARRIS TWEED ran 2nd at $40.

2017: BOOM TIME $100

and in between those years, others paid upward of $8, many of them $15 and $20

Dunaden paid well too, as did Railings and Admire Rakti. I think Fawkner was big odds too??

The shorter ones were Sky Heights at $5,  Mongolian Khan at $5. Mummify at $5. Northerly at $4

Ethereal was around $8, although $10 was available at the track that day.

So the race is more than capable of producing $15 plus winners, and even large quinellas have been achieved.

So if you glance at a horse paying over $40, dont be too quick to rule it out.

Now having said that, the top 4 in market will run the box first 4. LOL.

Trying to check that one.

To my knowledge he paid $40 on the tab, he was overlooked in the market, came from near last, rails run.

got the ole google working overtime to find the odds,  but cant for some reason.

Trying to check that one.

To my knowledge he paid $40 on the tab, he was overlooked in the market, came from near last, rails run.

got the ole google working overtime to find the odds,  but cant for some reason.

Nearly all of those horses were less than half the odds you've quoted

I'm always wary of anything Cosgrave is riding.. even from barrier 17 he could win this with one of his peaches. I'll be taking a few bets into BEST SOLUTION.

SOUND CHECK should run a ripper. I'm more keen for SC in the Melbourne Cup as 2400 is too short. He's a ripping stayer imo.

I think VENTURA STORM is the best roughie in the race. Has been building very nicely this prep.

DURETTO's another I could see winning this, especially drawing the pole. Will need luck of course but the horse does like to be cuddled up and inside of runners from a few races I've seen. Definitely having something on at 20-1. 

Then there's the locals, IMO KINGS WILL DREAM wont run top 5. 1 run too many imo. on the other hand, ACE HIGH looks like he's dead set primed 100% for his grand final. I'm pretty keen to back him too. The is fine, excellent jockey on and he hasn't had to run in the slop in NSW, which I think is a massive plus.

Great race to have a bet on a few and come out on top.

Am hoping JAAMEH gets in, otherwise I'm already on and keen to back;

ACE HIGH

BEST SOLUTION

SOUND CHECK

VENTURA STORM

I can understand Youngstar, at such a lightweight, and went with Winx for a little bit.

But I just think they will get too far back.

Ace High is going to be super hard to catch at the 200m.

Just think he will keep going. and break their hearts.

Lazy bugger at trackwork.

When revved up in a race, you just see him say, "okay, Ive got this", and you just get the feeling he wants more and more revving, almost like as though the longer he is revved, the more he will eventually give.

Kind of like a Northerly. Just doesnt want to be in it, but when decides to, there is plenty in the tank.

Ace High has plenty in the tank.

I just don't understand it... He doesn't ride for Weir. It's Yendall, Rawiller, Allen or Lane. 

I thought it was a very tough run he gave KWD last start.  I watched the horse pretty closely and am in the opinion that it should be in the paddock. That last run seemed to take a lot out of him. 

But I suppose if anyone can get the horse to peak again it's Weiry. I just don't think KWD will run top 5. Massive lay.

Reckon is price is spot on, not that I'm really interested in having a bet in the race.

Tough lead up run for stayers = good lead up run imo

Homesman

KWD

Ace High

Good luck all with your selections

Youngstar

Chestnut Coat

Red Verdon

The Cloffsofmoher