Avilius
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Forum Description: General discussion about thoroughbred horse racing
URL: https://forum.thoroughbredvillage.com.au/forum_posts.asp?TID=62673
Printed Date: 23 Apr 2024 at 4:48pm
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Topic: Avilius
Posted By: scamanda
Subject: Avilius
Date Posted: 04 Aug 2018 at 3:06pm
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Winner at Australian debut today, albeit in against fairly moderate horses. But, at least 6 off the lead at the 600m. Ran through the line like he was just getting warmed up. And the last 600m was run in 33.88, in a 1600m race. His final 600 and especially his last furlong would read much better. Godolphin may have found the perfect import to replace Hartnell. ------------- I started with nothing and still have most of it left |
Replies:
Posted By: Carioca
Date Posted: 04 Aug 2018 at 3:15pm
| Very impressive Scamanda , agree with you there. |
Posted By: Second Chance
Date Posted: 04 Aug 2018 at 3:20pm
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Yep. Lightly races stakes winner and Gp 2 placed last prep in GB and could be a very serious contender here.
Very much looking forward to our colleague Djebel's assessment of the horse, owners and trainer.
 |
Posted By: scamanda
Date Posted: 04 Aug 2018 at 5:12pm
------------- I started with nothing and still have most of it left |
Posted By: scamanda
Date Posted: 04 Aug 2018 at 5:12pm
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Kementari next best 32.77 ------------- I started with nothing and still have most of it left |
Posted By: scamanda
Date Posted: 04 Aug 2018 at 5:19pm
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Well until the last race, Soothing 32.37 ------------- I started with nothing and still have most of it left |
Posted By: Second Chance
Date Posted: 04 Aug 2018 at 7:33pm
bump.
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Second Chance wrote:Posted By: djebel
Date Posted: 04 Aug 2018 at 7:36pm
Clearly a talented. Clearly the people at Godolphin who pick the Europeans to come here are good judges. I like James but he is the same as all Aussie trainers. ------------- reductio ad absurdum |
Posted By: correctweight
Date Posted: 04 Aug 2018 at 7:38pm
| Just wins the metrop if it goes there. |
Posted By: Lord Hybrow
Date Posted: 04 Aug 2018 at 8:01pm
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Next start? Group 3 Premiers Cup 1900m at Rosehill in 3 weeks, perhaps? |
Posted By: scamanda
Date Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 3:51pm
Yes indeed. Well placed Lord Hybrow. In all sorts of trouble on the turn with Grimm actually showing some urgency. Once clear he was too good though. Very good horse. ------------- I started with nothing and still have most of it left |
Posted By: VOYAGER
Date Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 3:59pm
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I will summon the soul of djebel here. If they give him a European style prep, he could win the cups. As it is if they run him every fortnight he will be cooked by the time things hot up in Melbourne. I think his finish is better than Hartnell's ------------- Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise |
Posted By: ThreeBears
Date Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 4:00pm
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Gp 2 placed last prep in GB With the bump you were wrong twice. All his Euro racing was in France for the master trainer Andre Fabre.
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Posted By: Sunline
Date Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 4:04pm
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Lovely stayer! ------------- Sunline...simply supreme |
Posted By: correctweight
Date Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 4:17pm
| Metrop at his mercy now. Then off to the Caul Cup. |
Posted By: scamanda
Date Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 4:28pm
James Cummings may not get the chance to choose his path , and I agree with your Metrop - CC plan being his best option. Lightly weighted surely. But I remember Hartnell had the Caul Cup at his mercy and Godolphin decided to run him in the Cox Plate against Winx. It would be a shame. ------------- I started with nothing and still have most of it left |
Posted By: ThreeBears
Date Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 4:32pm
| Why Metrop? Go to wfa in Melbourne, avoid any penalties and take an easy path to the CC. |
Posted By: scamanda
Date Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 4:36pm
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I'm looking at the likely weight for the Metrop. He'd have to get in light and it is a Group 1. In the WFA races he'd be facing some serious horseflesh. With no weight advantage. ------------- I started with nothing and still have most of it left |
Posted By: Second Chance
Date Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 4:47pm
| Have no idea what path they'll take, however he's won at Listed level and run three placings at Group 2 level in the NH including a 2nd to Cracksman who's been hailed by more than a few as the best horse in the world. |
Posted By: Lord Hybrow
Date Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 4:48pm
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Plotting a course to the Spring Cups is always tricky. Will be interesting to see where he runs next. I don’t mind the idea of the Newcastle Cup @ 2300m on the 14th Sept. Then hopefully winning that sees his rating high enough to go straight into the Caulfield Cup @ 2400m on 20th Oct. |
Posted By: ThreeBears
Date Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 4:48pm
| Has to rate 105+ now so what weight is that for Metrop? |
Posted By: ThreeBears
Date Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 4:50pm
| And the 88 rating he carried from France was a joke. |
Posted By: scamanda
Date Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 4:54pm
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I don't know what rating he'd get, or what weight, or what race. But I will be following him. I'd love to see him in Melb actually, but only because Grimm Scholfield would stay in Sydney. ------------- I started with nothing and still have most of it left |
Posted By: correctweight
Date Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 4:54pm
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Newcastle Cup looks the next best option into the group 1s. Why go through WFA when you can pick off the handicaps while you can. On this trajectory he'll be a WFA next season and will be weighted out of the winnable races now. |
Posted By: Second Chance
Date Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 5:02pm
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Led to believe the winners of the following races are ballot exempt for the Caulfield Cup, irrespective of allotted weight. Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m), Dato’Tan Chin Nam Stakes 1600m, Underwood Stakes 1800m , Naturalism Stakes (2000m) ,Turnbull Stakes (2000m), Herbert Power Stakes (2400m), Caulfield Stakes (2000m), and Mornington Cup (already run). Reckon he'll be down in Vic earlier rather than later. |
Posted By: ThreeBears
Date Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 5:03pm
| Yes those races are why I think he'll come to Melbourne rather than Metrop or Newcastle. |
Posted By: correctweight
Date Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 11:16pm
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"Whether we go to the Kingston Town or the Newcastle Cup next, we’ll just wait and see how quickly he recovers and how far he wants to go next. We’ll nominate for the Metropolitan and I reckon he might be worthwhile nominating for the Caulfield Cup too.” |
Posted By: correctweight
Date Posted: 25 Aug 2018 at 11:17pm
| Sorry that was said by James Cummings |
Posted By: AdaHunta
Date Posted: 26 Aug 2018 at 5:57pm
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Haven't been as excited over a 2000m horse since Gingernuts !! This is a serious horse .....
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Posted By: Second Chance
Date Posted: 26 Aug 2018 at 6:45pm
Correct. However it's not often advisable, even as trainer, to second guess Godolphin.
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Posted By: Bonfield
Date Posted: 26 Aug 2018 at 7:54pm
Absolutely. He performed well in G2 races in Europe so why was he rated so low?
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Posted By: correctweight
Date Posted: 09 Sep 2018 at 8:34am
| Confirmed going Kingstown Town then Metrop. If he wins Metrop then Caulfield Cup. |
Posted By: VOYAGER
Date Posted: 09 Sep 2018 at 4:42pm
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Well that is my Melbourne Cup bet out. If they think he is a wfa horse for next year, he pulls up stumps after Caulfield. ------------- Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise |
Posted By: scamanda
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2018 at 4:04pm
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54 kgs for The Metropolitan. 4 over the limit and 4 under the top weight. Nice.  ------------- I started with nothing and still have most of it left |
Posted By: correctweight
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2018 at 5:43pm
| Bodes well for all us pre post punters at 8.00++ |
Posted By: correctweight
Date Posted: 10 Sep 2018 at 5:44pm
| Will go up ~1kg after winning the Kingston Town Stakes this week though. |
Posted By: Heavenly Glow
Date Posted: 15 Sep 2018 at 4:37pm
| Massive today. Going to be hard to beat in the Caulfield Cup. |
Posted By: Magnolian Khan
Date Posted: 15 Sep 2018 at 4:38pm
| Bring on the Metropolitan for this guy |
Posted By: scamanda
Date Posted: 15 Sep 2018 at 4:41pm
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He's good. The sectionals will be interesting for this race. He got back on the rail (  ) and somehow the heavens opened up for him in the straight and he gave them no hope.Metrop next and if he goes as well in Melbourne the Caul Cup is not beyond him. ------------- I started with nothing and still have most of it left |
Posted By: Magnolian Khan
Date Posted: 15 Sep 2018 at 4:56pm
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James is undecided re Metropolitan Could be coming to Melbourne for the Bart Cummings |
Posted By: Lord Hybrow
Date Posted: 15 Sep 2018 at 5:01pm
I hope he does stay in Sydney for the Metropolitan Hcp. But James Cummings just surprisingly mentioned the Bart Cummings Stks at Flemington as another option. I wouldn’t be suprised if Goldolphin totally deviate from the original target race. Who knows, he might end up in a Turnbull Stks!! |
Posted By: Gee Gee
Date Posted: 15 Sep 2018 at 6:02pm
| Best horse inthe stable |
Posted By: djebel
Date Posted: 15 Sep 2018 at 6:45pm
Does it get him into the Melbourne Cup without a penalty ? I know it is a ballot free race for the Cup. ------------- reductio ad absurdum |
Posted By: Lord Hybrow
Date Posted: 15 Sep 2018 at 8:16pm
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The Turnbull Stks is penalty free & ballot free for the Melb Cup. Whereas if he happened to win both the Metropolitan & Caulfield Cup double, he’s likely attract weight penalties of 1kg & 2kg respectively. That would take his Melb Cup weight from current 53kg up to a heftier 56kg. |
Posted By: mikey
Date Posted: 15 Sep 2018 at 8:52pm
| Lol. The Turnbull Stakes is also the target of a pony called Winx. He might be flying, have untapped potential etc but they wont pin their hopes of him getting entry to a target race by beating Winx. |
Posted By: correctweight
Date Posted: 15 Sep 2018 at 9:26pm
Ballot free for Winx? |
Posted By: Sunline
Date Posted: 15 Sep 2018 at 9:43pm
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If you've won the Metropolitan and Caulfield Cup who cares! He would've earnt the weight anyway. ------------- Sunline...simply supreme |
Posted By: correctweight
Date Posted: 15 Sep 2018 at 9:55pm
| Exactly. Has the metrop at his mercy should just go there then caulfield cup. |
Posted By: correctweight
Date Posted: 16 Sep 2018 at 1:38pm
| Beadman has suggested that the metrop will be his next race this morning due to the 54kg without penalty. |
Posted By: djebel
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 9:28am
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Apparently out of the Metro. ------------- reductio ad absurdum |
Posted By: Magnolian Khan
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 9:47am
| Will be on a float to Melbourne |
Posted By: Carioca
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:02pm
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Got too much money has the blue team , they have foresaken the substance for the shadow, would have won the Metrop. on his ear and guaranteed a MC start imo, the last 67 Metrop. winners and placegetters are riddled with MC winners, now down the h/way reverse way form for the BC will come from all angles seeking a start as well, not the first time they pulled the wrong reign imo Hartnell in the Cox P. as against the CC, on Saturday with Kementari they knew the weather was going to be filthy and the WFA very strong so they ignored the weaker Sydney WFA , good weather and taking out the champ they could have run Second ( giving him an easy time) dropping 3kg in 14 days for an Epsom run even though D'Argent is weighted to win, nothing's guaranteed , however this is Avilious's thread , a future topliner and a Melbourne Cup is not beyond him where ever he goes.
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Posted By: correctweight
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:06pm
| Disatrous move. Will have trained off by then imo. Wont be winning any Group 1s. |
Posted By: Carioca
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:06pm
| And I might add I feel for the punters who took this horse in Multies and pre-post metrop.betting, dudded again ! |
Posted By: Second Chance
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:27pm
Bump.
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Posted By: correctweight
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:29pm
You got that he would in Melbourne part bit right.
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Posted By: Second Chance
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:33pm
| Almost not to mention getting the "earlier" bit right also. |
Posted By: Heavenly Glow
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:45pm
The only thing I can think of is that they didn't want to get penalised for a Metrop win going into the Caulfield Cup and also get penalised for the Caulfield Cup (should they win it) going into the Melbourne Cup. It makes more sense to guarantee a start in the MC by winning the Bart Cummings (which I assume doesn't carry a weight penalty), then rolling the dice in the CC where the horse will be penalised for the Melbourne Cup if it won, but that is a good 5 million dollar problem to have. And it would only result in one penalty.
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Posted By: correctweight
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:57pm
Sorry missed it
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Posted By: Carioca
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 4:02pm
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The Metrop. field is very ordinary imo this year and I doubt very much had he won with 54kg the handicapper would give it much significance even though he has 53kg in the CC, what I'm trying to say is this, the Bart Cummings will have plenty of o/s form from all over the place and he could bump into a real rod in the pickle if you get my drift, wins the Metrop.all problems eliminated imo.
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Posted By: scamanda
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 4:18pm
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Godolphin stuffed up by pulling Hartnell from the Caul Cup for the Cox Plate/Melb Cup. Now with Avilius they have thrown away their best chance of a Grp 1 for a chance to win the Melb Cup, via the Caul Cup? He's very capable of winning the CC and I hope he does because I've been on him for weeks and had nothing on for the Metrop but the reasoning for him not running is clear enough. The Sheik has already won a Caul Cup with All The Good.(I think) So far as I know he doesn't have a Cox Plate or Melb Cup winner so it seems Avilius must be their best chance to claim one for the Sheik, but he aint gonna be beaten up on Winx in the Cox Plate so it's gotta be the Melb Cup. A mere consolation prize. Cox Plate next year. lol ------------- I started with nothing and still have most of it left |
Posted By: Heavenly Glow
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 4:28pm
Magic Hurricane was penalised 2.5kgs for his Metrop win in 2015. If Avilius were to line up in the Metrop and smash that field - which he probably would have - then he'd be looking at a similar weight penalty. Perhaps even more than 2.5kgs.
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Posted By: Carioca
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 4:51pm
| So what race did he cop the extra 2-5kg for, I see he won with 55-5kg as you said but never won another race and carried 54-5 kg the following year in the Metrop.? |
Posted By: JudgeHolden
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 5:22pm
Horse has got to get into the CC first. Currently 57th in order of entry. Would only get in with a penalty you’d think. Looks like they’re putting all their eggs in the MC basket. |
Posted By: Second Chance
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 5:36pm
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Suspect they think he's brilliant enough to win one of the number of ballot-exempt CC qualifying races. And reckon they could be right.
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Posted By: JudgeHolden
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 5:44pm
| Except they’re not going to those, they’re going to the BC. A non exempt (for the CC) G3 race. |
Posted By: Second Chance
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 6:39pm
| Excuse my usual ignorance Judge, but what's the BC? |
Posted By: SHOVHOG
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 6:40pm
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Feel for the punters who Bet into this market and I dare say futures markets will lose a lot of future customers ..... ------------- " In gambling the many must lose in order for the few to win" |
Posted By: JudgeHolden
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 6:49pm
The Bart Cummings on Turnbull day. Can’t see him going from there to any of the CC exempt races. Reckon the odds of a CC start have plummeted. |
Posted By: Second Chance
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 6:56pm
Thanks 
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Posted By: Carioca
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 7:35pm
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Very similar profiles I find interesting , Rekindling D.O.B. March 2014, Avilius D.O.B.May 2014, both have had 10 starts, Rek. 4wins, AV.5wins, Rekindling is the one that interests me, winning the MC so young must have had a wonderful prep. and great lung capacity,at least this horse has had the extra year to develope, the thing that bugs me ( really lol) is this was not an original plan , Rekindling was.
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Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 20 Sep 2018 at 5:38pm
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Some strange decisions going on with this horse. In my opinion, the 2nd best horse currently in Australia. But the decisions being made, it seems they may even go Cox Plate, to Melbourne Cup. They certainly seem all about the Melbourne Cup now. Cant blame them. But why not the Metrop? Confusing. Metrop horses go good in Melbourne Cup I thought?? Either way, this is a serious horse. Big Duke aint no slouch and Avilius skipped away from him at the 300m.
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Posted By: correctweight
Date Posted: 05 Oct 2018 at 10:29pm
| At the price currently he is a massive lay. Very arrogant missing a Group 1 at his mercy to persue this race to get into the cup. Bow has barrier 1 on a short run into the corner will get burried 5 back on the fence and with Glyn on he might never get out in the straight. Needs big time luck. |
Posted By: Carioca
Date Posted: 05 Oct 2018 at 10:48pm
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The more I look at this horses last start the warmer I become , this has been a bold move by James and after seeing Dominic Bierne in the winning party after the Epsom the young mane has a great analogicall brain in his corner ( my take only) I hope this horse wins like the good horse he is , then it's on to the MC.
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Posted By: correctweight
Date Posted: 05 Oct 2018 at 11:09pm
| Nothing wrong with his ability. Best horse in the race. Just the worst mapped horse in the field. Watch twitter explode after. |
Posted By: Carioca
Date Posted: 05 Oct 2018 at 11:31pm
| Suspect the field may string out a bit will give him a chance to get off the fence and in the running line and take it from there, ( well that's how I see it lol) . |
Posted By: Heavenly Glow
Date Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 12:04am
| Second best horse in Australia IMO. But I can't see him getting a clear run from the barrier. Will be hard held to the line, not even out of first gear, lap full of horse but no where to go. Be surprised if it even runs a place. |
Posted By: Sunline
Date Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 12:25am
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Has 2500m of the biggest track in the country and a horse with a lightning turn of foot to find his way out. Even Glyn can't f&%k this one .------------- Sunline...simply supreme |
Posted By: Dr E
Date Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 12:35am
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Hard to see anything beating him if he has any luck. ------------- In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT! |
Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 6:09am
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Glyn Schofield barrier 1 at Flemington. Disaster waiting to happen. Leave me out of this one boys. |
Posted By: Prince of Penzance
Date Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 7:29am
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Surely it’s a sit and steer job for Glynn. But what are the chances he buggers it up? Still, I’ll having something on |
Posted By: Tlazolteotl
Date Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 8:38am
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Copying what Williams does seems like a good MC plan to me. ------------- An honest politician is one who when he is bought will stay bought. Simon Cameron |
Posted By: JudgeHolden
Date Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 8:53am
| Hope he wins because I’d like to see him in the Cup, though I suppose he could still go to the Lexus, or whatever the hell they call it this year. I think the scratchings help, but those odds look pretty poisonous to me for a horse with his racing pattern. Hopefully out to 2500 he can settle closer. |
Posted By: scamanda
Date Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 9:50am
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If Avilius gets beat today it won't be the barrier that beat him. Barrier 1 at Flemington over 2500m = no consequence. The weight he is carrying could be a game changer though. He's been beating up on B graders with less weight but now has to give weight to the strongest field he has ever faced. I think the big Flemington straight will suit his racing pattern and he will get to use his final sprint again to show why he is so highly regarded. Track bias .................................... ------------- I started with nothing and still have most of it left |
Posted By: Bonfield
Date Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 10:19am
| I think he's a good chance today but unlike others here I think it's an open race. |
Posted By: Nick
Date Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 10:27am
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Will win!! |
Posted By: djebel
Date Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 11:26am
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I agree with Bonfield, Harder race than he has faced up here. ------------- reductio ad absurdum |
Posted By: rusty nails
Date Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 11:47am
With Glynn on board,and being so short,he is just as likely to settle with the clerk of the course 
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Posted By: Prince of Penzance
Date Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 11:53am
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I’m also having something on Yogi. Wrong race for him last start, they wanted to run in the Naturalism but he was balloted out. Out to his right distance, he can run a cheeky race. Would love to see a Raise the Flag in the MC |
Posted By: Jamal
Date Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 2:44pm
I agree. ------------- Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers |
Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 4:30pm
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I'll put the hand up. Good ride Glyn. It's alot easier when they're strung along but still a good ride. I expected the horse to win by more at the top of the straight. He was absolutely jogging. Will he get two miles? |
Posted By: correctweight
Date Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 4:31pm
| Protest |
Posted By: correctweight
Date Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 4:32pm
| Yeah he actually got off the fence at the right time. Doubted Glyn but great ride if he loses this on protest it won't be his fault. Horse wanted to go back to the rail himself. |
Posted By: SHOVHOG
Date Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 4:34pm
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He had to straighten up 3 or 4 times he should have won by a lot further. Protest is frivolous at best. ------------- " In gambling the many must lose in order for the few to win" |
Posted By: Heavenly Glow
Date Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 4:35pm
| Walker is dreaming, but I once seen Solar Antiquity lose a protest I never thought could possibly be lost. So, you never know until you try. |
Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 4:39pm
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The thing in Walker's favour is the margin is virtually nothing. So if the Stewards deem interference to have been caused, it's likely to be upheld. But in saying that, in my opinion there's very little interference. Should be dismissed. |
Posted By: JudgeHolden
Date Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 4:52pm
| Looked to be jogging at the 200 then fell in. No chance in the Cup for mine. |
Posted By: VOYAGER
Date Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 4:53pm
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Interesting fact for the cup. Schofield has only had 3 rides in the race 3rd on Mourilyan behind Shocking and fourth on Kellini for Waller. This might be my biggest winner since Jezabeel in 1998! ------------- Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise |
Posted By: Heavy10
Date Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 4:57pm
| Is it in Caulfield Cup? Won't be winning Melbourne cup on that run, looks long odds to get 3200...unless its a jog n sprint |
Posted By: Jamal
Date Posted: 06 Oct 2018 at 4:58pm
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Has 53kg in the Cup...will he get a weight penalty? The margin was very very small so perhaps no penalty but we will find out next week when Carpenter announces a penalty or no penalty. ------------- Australian racing is only good up to 1400m in terms of world standards when it comes to depth/quality in numbers |