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Saturday Racing Blog May 12 2018

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Printed Date: 29 Mar 2024 at 10:29am
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Topic: Saturday Racing Blog May 12 2018
Posted By: Gay3
Subject: Saturday Racing Blog May 12 2018
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 9:13am


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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!



Replies:
Posted By: jimbob04
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 9:18am
good luck




Posted By: Dizzy
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 10:45am
Good morning Gay3, jimbob04 and all. Big smile And good luck to all. Thumbs Up


Posted By: Sunline
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 11:08am
Yet another difficult Saturday of racing. These are my main bets today:

Scone

R2 Cradle Mountain in multis - one of my favourite horses running around. He won like Takeover Target last start. This horse is untapped. Has some challenge with the wind to overcome here but should be too good for them.

R6 Osborne Bulls $2.3 ***BEST BET*** - highly promising sprinter who made for better things than this. Reeled off a scintillating 32.5s L600m last start - they can't run much faster than that - suggesting he's A grade. Nice big track here will help. Just need the jock to manoeuvre off the fence at the right time and get some clear air.

Doomben

R7 Youngstar $5 - she is now far too short for a filly up sharply in grade and who will get back on the inside at Doomben. Can't recommend a bet. At $5 she was ok but no huge value either. I have a big opinion of this filly after her last start win but you need to see these 3yo fillies do it a few times before plunging in. I'm all over her at $26/$7.25 in the QLD Oaks and hoping she's favourite by the end of the day. She looks classy and a real stayer.

R8 Redzel - easing to a nice price now. He has let his followers down a little bit of late but they can't win them all. Beaten by a very good one last start and will be leading and out of danger again here like always, while In Her Time will need an astute ride.

R9 Higher Ground $3.2 - they're jumping out of the trees to back Dark Dream to beat Higher Ground. I can't have it personally. Higher Ground looks the QLD Derby horse and is the class coming off a nice Packer Plate win over Tangled. He is on a sharp upward spiral and can go to a new peak here again.

Morphettville

R7 High 'n' Dry $7 from Runaway $15 & High Sherrif $21 - I'm taking on the fave - rightly or wrongly - and quite keen on these three but particularly High 'n' Dry who I think will be gobbling them up late. If Runaway gets an easy time of it in front he will be very tough to run down, while the kiwis can never be discounted in Derbies.

Good luck and good punting.


-------------
Sunline...simply supreme


Posted By: Shawy38
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 11:50am
Okay I’ve found one that I’m keen on out in the Bush.
Donald race 6. Jittery Jack

Trotted in on debut at his home course of Kerang at Easter time at nice odds.
Stepped up to BM64 at Echuca last time out, and managed to run 3rd to Weir horse SilentZ, who absolutely flew home, and did the same again at Sandown on Wedneaday when winning impressively.
The horse that ran 2nd was Watchdog who has run some reasonable races for Godolphin.

This horse should simply be winning today, I reckon he could make the grace and be a nice country performer when he gets more experience.


4yo by Desert King, should handle the wet.


I also want to say a big congratulations to Neil Dyer and his team. One of my favourite horses, BEL SIR is having his 100th start today, no doubt a prep run enroute to Darwin.


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 12:40pm
How come Avdulla isn't on Osborne Bulls? He's ridden the horse 7 of it's 9 starts. But not today. He's on Firsthand instead.

I don't follow Sydney racing all that closely. Is this a case of him being obligated to ride a Hawkes horse first? Because surely Godolphin wouldn't prefer Rachel King over Brenton Avdulla.

The booking of King doesn't make any sense to me. Obviously alot of them can't ride at 53 but surely there would still be better options.


Posted By: Breeding Above All
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 12:42pm
Originally posted by MJB MJB wrote:

How come Avdulla isn't on Osborne Bulls? He's ridden the horse 7 of it's 9 starts. But not today. He's on Firsthand instead.

I don't follow Sydney racing all that closely. Is this a case of him being obligated to ride a Hawkes horse first? Because surely Godolphin wouldn't prefer Rachel King over Brenton Avdulla.

The booking of King doesn't make any sense to me. Obviously alot of them can't ride at 53 but surely there would still be better options.


He was a good thing beaten last start.. ride wasn’t too bad but should have won.. but it’s most likely because of the weight..


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 1:00pm
The weight isn't the reason. Avdulla's riding 53 on Firsthand.

The only other thing l can think of is he's chosen Firsthand over Osborne Bulls? Firsthand was a massive, massive run last start. There's probably not too much between them really.

Firsthand will love the wide open spaces of Scone just as much as OB.


Posted By: Breeding Above All
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 1:08pm
Originally posted by MJB MJB wrote:

The weight isn't the reason. Avdulla's riding 53 on Firsthand.

The only other thing l can think of is he's chosen Firsthand over Osborne Bulls? Firsthand was a massive, massive run last start. There's probably not too much between them really.

Firsthand will love the wide open spaces of Scone just as much as OB.


If that’s the case Avdulla has lost the plot because by First hand is going to get wind burn


Posted By: Breeding Above All
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 1:15pm
Tango Rain has sucked me in again.. wish me luck!

I like:
Cradle Mountain
Tango Rain
Spectroscope EW
High n Dry
Osbourne Bull
Goathland
Youngster
Redzel and laying off on impending


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 1:23pm
I don't agree. I think Firsthand is right in this race. Especially if Avdulla gets his momentum up before King gets out of her pocket.

Don't get me wrong, l'm a huge fan of OB but l'm respecting Firsthand. I think at the each way price it's a better bet than OB straight out.


Posted By: djebel
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 1:36pm


-------------
reductio ad absurdum


Posted By: djebel
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 1:54pm
Yes that was a cryptic posting LOL He ran a costly last for both myself and more importantly himself.

Likely to cost him his manhood. 


-------------
reductio ad absurdum


Posted By: marble
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 1:56pm
thought rosie posie has a good each way chance in the next at doomben - will need a bit of luck in the straight but if she gets clear will finish powerfully


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 2:59pm
Originally posted by marble marble wrote:

thought rosie posie has a good each way chance in the next at doomben - will need a bit of luck in the straight but if she gets clear will finish powerfully


Love seeing those white horses!

Wasn't a bad run. Not far away at all. Pretty good ride from the young lass too.


Posted By: Aurelius
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 3:00pm
Caulfield

R5 Maximus   Take what you can get - Will Win

__________________________

Scone

R7 Sirens Fury   $14.00 - 3.90

Looking for some value here and she is in this race up to her ears.


Posted By: Stainvita
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 3:19pm
Damien Browne is to never ever get a ride for Cummings again,that effort on Interlocuter was a disgrace and funny how it blows from 4.80 to 7.50 and races 3-4 wide the entire trip.

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If your hands aren't shaking you haven't put enough on.


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 3:21pm
Cradle Mountain a one trick pony?

Couldn't lead today. Gave in very meekly. It was 3 deep thoroughout but it made no difference. Very ordinary.


Posted By: Sunline
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 3:38pm
3/5 lame, MJB.

-------------
Sunline...simply supreme


Posted By: ThreeBears
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 3:46pm
I've managed to get 5.0 with a boost about Dynamited and expect her to be strong at the finish with good speed on in front of her early.


Posted By: ThreeBears
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 3:53pm
Drifted badly and ran accordingly


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 4:00pm
Originally posted by Sunline Sunline wrote:

3/5 lame, MJB.


Yep fair enough. Obviously have to forgive.

Doesn't help the punters who launched into the $1.90. Amazing how many shorties are found to be lame/irregular heart rhythm etc etc.

So much can go wrong.


Posted By: djebel
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 4:07pm
This nations trainers run their good horses into the ground.

Villermont very disappointing there but I will blame the trainer. 


-------------
reductio ad absurdum


Posted By: Straight Connector
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 4:08pm
Moss Trip is the real deal!


Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 4:09pm
Amazing price Moss Trip on the back of the course record run at Randwick last start.    Won like a smart horse.


Posted By: Speediskey
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 4:10pm
Originally posted by Stainvita Stainvita wrote:

Damien Browne is to never ever get a ride for Cummings again,that effort on Interlocuter was a disgrace and funny how it blows from 4.80 to 7.50 and races 3-4 wide the entire trip.

Didn't Schofield ride it?


Posted By: ThreeBears
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 4:14pm
Villermont was an easy lay given he'd never won under a mile and only fell in last start.


Posted By: 3blindmice
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 4:25pm
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Amazing price Moss Trip on the back of the course record run at Randwick last start.    Won like a smart horse.

Her sectionals were super last time Macca and the way the race was run played perfectly for her. Was very happy when Avdulla was back there, even happier when I saw she hadn't lost the devestating tirn of hoof. Wasn't interested at $2.90 but Crown bet $3.80/4.40 boosted late so had to go again. Paraded super I thought.


Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 4:32pm
Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Amazing price Moss Trip on the back of the course record run at Randwick last start.    Won like a smart horse.


Her sectionals were super last time Macca and the way the race was run played perfectly for her. Was very happy when Avdulla was back there, even happier when I saw she hadn't lost the devestating tirn of hoof. Wasn't interested at $2.90 but Crown bet $3.80/4.40 boosted late so had to go again. Paraded super I thought.


Gives a leg up for Osborne Bulls with the track being fair to those down the outside .   Good track Scone.


Posted By: 3blindmice
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 4:38pm
Hope our Perast bet of the carnival  tipster followed up. They didn't miss backing him by the look of flucs.

TClark hot, and that after I thought he wasn't riding anywhere near his best in recent weeks.  LOL


Posted By: 3blindmice
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 4:42pm
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Amazing price Moss Trip on the back of the course record run at Randwick last start.    Won like a smart horse.


Her sectionals were super last time Macca and the way the race was run played perfectly for her. Was very happy when Avdulla was back there, even happier when I saw she hadn't lost the devestating tirn of hoof. Wasn't interested at $2.90 but Crown bet $3.80/4.40 boosted late so had to go again. Paraded super I thought.


Gives a leg up for Osborne Bulls with the track being fair to those down the outside .   Good track Scone.

Yes Scone usually gives horses their chance. Today with the wind especially cover looks a HUGE plus if not essential.

Fair pointer to Dyslexic later although she's not favoured by the weights.


Posted By: 3blindmice
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 4:45pm
Originally posted by MJB MJB wrote:

Originally posted by Sunline Sunline wrote:

3/5 lame, MJB.


Yep fair enough. Obviously have to forgive.

Doesn't help the punters who launched into the $1.90. Amazing how many shorties are found to be lame/irregular heart rhythm etc etc.

So much can go wrong.

AND - they appeared to go at a solid clip early into that wind. Of the leaders only Nic's Vendetta with the postage stamp weight held on. 


Posted By: 3blindmice
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 4:52pm
RKing must get time for Resin ride. Nearly caused the roughie to fall.

Bartley was quite upbeat about the winner In Good Time earlier this week, albeit cautious about the class rise. Owners must be loving it.


Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 4:54pm
I wish Tracey Bartley had kept his horse at home today.

She Knows = $13 was one we dream about .    No place saver either .


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 4:59pm
You and me both Macca.

She Knows was the best split in my quaddie. I didn't have the winner.


Posted By: Heavenly Glow
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 5:11pm
Houtzen now to be ridden back. Well there goes that.


Posted By: 3blindmice
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 5:19pm
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

I wish Tracey Bartley had kept his horse at home today.

She Knows = $13 was one we dream about .    No place saver either .

Feel for you Macca. Had a few like that a couple of weeks ago. Super run.


Posted By: marble
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 5:22pm
Originally posted by Heavenly Glow Heavenly Glow wrote:

Houtzen now to be ridden back. Well there goes that.
really? there goes a lot of speed in the race -  that sort of hands the run of the race to redzel


Posted By: Straight Connector
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 5:28pm
Take a bow Rachel King.


Posted By: 3blindmice
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 5:29pm
Collett was horrible on Invincible Gem there. 5 wide and sat there. 

Nice win by the Bull but that's not Qld carnival form at first blush is it?


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 5:30pm
Well done to the Osborne Bulls backers. She rode for luck and she got it. You wouldn't take $2 about that though. Other days she won't get the required luck.

Firsthand flopped. He's better than that. Just didn't put in today.


Posted By: Xavier
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 5:31pm
Random fun fact:

Lord Durante (Caulf R7) is the Darren Gauci Handicap.
Last jockey to win on that horse, was  Darren Gauci.
6 of the horses 9 wins have been ridden by Gauci.


-------------
Karl and Susan Kennedy are my heroes


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 5:33pm
Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

Collett was horrible on Invincible Gem there. 5 wide and sat there. 

Nice win by the Bull but that's not Qld carnival form at first blush is it?


Check out his ride on New Tipperary yesterday. Disgraceful. That was the start of my current bad run!



Posted By: Shawy38
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 5:37pm
Wendy Kelly fined $1000
She accidentally loaded the wrong horse on the float, so Gibbon has been left behind and won’t run today


Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 5:37pm
I don't want the Osborne Bulls race over .       Tom's special too by the way ... That's 3 from 3 . He's good.
    Rides like that are bad for my Dikki Tikka.


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 5:44pm
After watching the race again, l gotta say Invincible Gem was a moral beaten. With a half decent ride he beats the Bull.


Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 5:46pm
Is $2.68 REDZEL stealing money or what.

Has to win around this saucer track.

     


Posted By: 3blindmice
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 5:54pm
Holy shyte. Pity I didn't take any notice of my comment about TClark above LOL. Luckily had no interest in the race.


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 5:54pm
Le Romain was massive.

As for Redzel, not good enough. The roughie that kicked up wasn't helping it but you gotta expect pressure in these races.

It's lost a length this prep.


Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 5:57pm
Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

Holy shyte. Pity I didn't take any notice of my comment about TClark above LOL. Luckily had no interest in the race.


No peace for Redzel ...   was gone early ...    English has run some smart races in it's day .   No real surprise.


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 6:01pm
Small bet Shazee Lee at 15's. Well weighted v the horses who also come out of that Hawkesbury race.


Posted By: 3blindmice
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 6:02pm
Surprised me Macca, and anyone who has backed her in recent times I'd suggest. Obviously needs a wet track these days. Got the plumb run. Redzel no excuse. 


Posted By: Carioca
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 6:05pm
Questions (2) Would Impending had of won IF it was the old distance of 1350?
                        Did Le Romain " clock of " when Collett lost near side rein at the 50m.mark when beaten a head by Trapeze Artist? just curious, I say yes to both lol.


Posted By: Shawy38
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 6:05pm
Originally posted by Shawy38 Shawy38 wrote:

Okay I’ve found one that I’m keen on out in the Bush.
Donald race 6. Jittery Jack

Trotted in on debut at his home course of Kerang at Easter time at nice odds.
Stepped up to BM64 at Echuca last time out, and managed to run 3rd to Weir horse SilentZ, who absolutely flew home, and did the same again at Sandown on Wedneaday when winning impressively.
The horse that ran 2nd was Watchdog who has run some reasonable races for Godolphin.

This horse should simply be winning today, I reckon he could make the grace and be a nice country performer when he gets more experience.


4yo by Desert King, should handle the wet.


I also want to say a big congratulations to Neil Dyer and his team. One of my favourite horses, BEL SIR is having his 100th start today, no doubt a prep run enroute to Darwin.




I was able to get $9 thanks to some boosts and specials with three different corps....
Stuck the rails and only just pipped by one on the outside fence....




Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 6:10pm
My horse scratched at the gates. I think that's a sign. Don't bet anymore.

Congrats to the poster who tipped Siren's Fury!


Posted By: Rhino
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 6:13pm
Ada you are a legend.


Posted By: 3blindmice
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 6:18pm
Originally posted by Carioca Carioca wrote:

Questions (2) Would Impending had of won IF it was the old distance of 1350?
                        Did Le Romain " clock of " when Collett lost near side rein at the 50m.mark when beaten a head by Trapeze Artist? just curious, I say yes to both lol.

Possibly Carioca, although LR is much better suited at 1350m also. I'd have backed him even over 1300m today with the wet.  

LR was awfully unlucky in the All Aged and I say that as a TA backer on the day.


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 6:26pm
Dark Dream has been backed in like it's unbeatable. Big go.


Posted By: 3blindmice
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 6:28pm
Lol so much for the champ Furrion. Weir stable knew. Wonder how Lucky For All would have gone at Doomben today. Very well on that win.


Posted By: Shawy38
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 6:30pm
Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

Lol so much for the champ Furrion. Weir stable knew. Wonder how Lucky For All would have gone at Doomben today. Very well on that win.


Would’ve trotted in


Posted By: 3blindmice
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 6:38pm
Originally posted by MJB MJB wrote:

Dark Dream has been backed in like it's unbeatable. Big go.

Another great ride by Clark. Bookies hammered there.


Posted By: 3blindmice
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 6:48pm
DLane horrible last week gives Weir the perfect ride this week. 


Posted By: ThreeBears
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 7:32pm
Weir did say in the Sun this morning that Furrion had to be suspect in the going and the other one was probably the better bet. No leading astray there.


Posted By: Aurelius
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 7:47pm
Originally posted by Aurelius Aurelius wrote:

Caulfield

R5 Maximus   Take what you can get - Will Win

__________________________

Scone

R7 Sirens Fury   $14.00 - 3.90

Looking for some value here and she is in this race up to her ears.


A slow start but ended well.

Didn't take the fixed odds on SF went tote and paid $16.70 in Vic.



Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 10:27pm
I've got one tomorrow boys. Sunshine Coast race 2. Horse called Speaking Bad. Currently $15 fixed. Ran at Ipswich over 1000 at debut. No speed at all, settled last and stayed there. But watch closely. R Fradd didn't move a muscle on it. Dodgy prick. There's definitely something there.

Steps sharply up to 1400 tomorrow and gets the blinkers applied.

Also, check out the form from that Ipswich race. Three horses have since won. It's turning into a very good form race.



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