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Bet of the Round

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Topic: Bet of the Round
Posted By: Redemption
Subject: Bet of the Round
Date Posted: 13 Apr 2018 at 10:18am
Just a new thread, instead of under the AFL thread
I will do one bet a round per week.
Hope you all remember that I said Dusty Martin was value at $4 to $5 for the Norm Smith, given that he was a 50% chance on average to poll best on ground in 2017. :)


Bet of the round folks, is score total UNDER 167.5 points Adelaide v Collingwood. odds $1.90

The weather coming at Adelaide city looks bleak to say the least.
Crows are a very high scoring side, so its a slight flirt with danger.

Two factors: the rain will come.
The wind is expected to be 50kph. Very hard to kick straight.

Also, Collingwood on the rebound, will go the length of ground, wasting time, but then not necessarily score, as Crows can stop them.
So its always hard for scores to be too big, when one team runs the length of ground wasting the clock, but then doesnt even score in the offensive 50 arc.



Replies:
Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 13 Apr 2018 at 10:35pm
Well done. Must have been a nervous last two minutes for you! I thought you were absolutely cruising during the match but the game really opened up late. What put it in danger was the fact the rain stopped and it appeared to dry out a bit.

I backed Collingwood at the plus 31.5 at evens. I feel like a bit of an idiot. I should have had something on the win.


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 13 Apr 2018 at 11:08pm
Gee whiz. Seriously, what happened then. as you said, cruising.
I had "plenty" on the bet I wrote above. Talk about sweaty palms.

Game wasnt to script
Pies piled on goals, crows did nothing, rain stopped.

Got the win, will let it ride next week.


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 14 Apr 2018 at 9:14am
Okay, let it ride
last night win,

Richmond v Brisbane, score under 173.5, odds $1.90

winds and rains about to hit melbourne, and looks even worse than what adelaide got last night.

mcg has incredible drainage though
so more about the wind and the actual rain hitting ball and top off grass, slippery.


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 14 Apr 2018 at 10:59am
Forum, get on the bet above
the weather is actually violent in Melbourne.
they may barely make it to 120 points, let alone 174


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 14 Apr 2018 at 11:08am
Agreed. The wind is going to play havoc. And Richmond have a mean defence on their day. Unders is the right bet. But the bookies are dropping their totals by the minute. I've taken 170.5. And you'd imagine it will continue to drop. I wonder what the total was last night? If you can predict the weather then you can usually catch them napping a few days out


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 14 Apr 2018 at 1:38pm
See how we go
Last night $1,000, got the $1,900 collect

Let it ride, $1900, I got the Under 173.5 Under, odds $1.90

Bookies keep rolling it down, it may even start at 155 points.

170.5 is still good. 
Woeful conditions.
Its not that grounds get boggy anymore, gone are those day.
But its raining so hard, ball will certainly be butterfingers today.
Its all physics, the mathematical fact is, its hard to get to 180 points even on a dry game, but to waste so much time, slipping, ball going out of bounds, packs around the ball, the clock just gets eaten up.

I honestly think they may not even get to 120 points today


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 14 Apr 2018 at 1:56pm
Sportsbet are betting $4 on 150 points or less. I've taken that.

Hopefully we get a bit more rain throughout the day to help us out. Start doing a rain dance!


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 14 Apr 2018 at 2:09pm
The sun is out now. Typical Melbourne weather


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 14 Apr 2018 at 3:45pm
under 150 is looking good MJB, because Richmond will probably spend the last 15 minutes of the game just chipping it around, taking players off, shutting game down, and prepare for next week


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 14 Apr 2018 at 4:20pm
Easy money Redemption. Never in doubt.

Buttering up on anything tonight?


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 14 Apr 2018 at 4:37pm
I was almost right, they staggered just past 120 points. lol

Will keep an eye on weather radars.
I like to bet the radars and wet games, because its just so hard to get clean possession.
eats up the clock, so you are betting on physics, not so much luck.

The problem with games at etihad etc, lets say the line is 170 points, over or under, is a team can have a shock in front of goal, and kick heaps of behinds, or on the flipside, can have a blinder and kick straight all night, making the scores huge.
So its very hard to predict dry games and best to leave them alone.

well done MJ Thumbs Up


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 14 Apr 2018 at 4:49pm
With regards to Etihad - when the roof is closed l like to take the overs, but when the roof is open l go under. That little theory has worked well for me so far this season. With night games they've been opening the roof which is a first. Weather permitting of course.


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 21 Apr 2018 at 10:24am
No Bets this week MJB
Slow and steady wins the race
There is no standouts.
Agree about Etihad roof.

What always concerns me about dry conditions, is unders/overs match total points, become horribly unpredictable because it can either be a tight game, an open game, pathetic strike rate at set shots at goal, or great strike rate.
Its simply too hard to predict.

The wet games bring physics into it that naturally chew up the clock and the ball is just so damn hard to pick up.
What we are doing is actually betting on the accuracy of the weather radar.
You can get even better odds two days out, if you trust radar, but still good to wait the day prior, or the morning of the game.


Posted By: Heavy10
Date Posted: 22 Apr 2018 at 8:31am
Thoughts on Lions v Sun's under 176.5? Not the greatest weather up here, 4.40pm game at Gabba is always dewy..plus both teams desperate for a win, can't see free flowing footy.

Also Stefan Martin looks value at $9.00 for medal


Posted By: oneonesit
Date Posted: 22 Apr 2018 at 9:57am
Originally posted by Redemption Redemption wrote:

No Bets this week MJB
Slow and steady wins the race
There is no standouts.
Agree about Etihad roof.

What always concerns me about dry conditions, is unders/overs match total points, become horribly unpredictable because it can either be a tight game, an open game, pathetic strike rate at set shots at goal, or great strike rate.
Its simply too hard to predict.

The wet games bring physics into it that naturally chew up the clock and the ball is just so damn hard to pick up.
What we are doing is actually betting on the accuracy of the weather radar.
You can get even better odds two days out, if you trust radar, but still good to wait the day prior, or the morning of the game.
I think your onto something here Redemption. Are you saying "heavy" conditions have a high probability of reducing the score ? Keep it to yourself (& TBV members) for Christs sake - the longer we keep the bookies in the dark the better. Also I love your new found punting discipline - very impressive !

-------------
Scientist & Global Warming Expert


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 23 Apr 2018 at 10:43am
Incredible round so far in the footy. 7 games played and all 7 have been under. And they've gone unders by a fair margin too. 4 of the 7 have been under 150.

2 games left.


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 24 Apr 2018 at 5:23pm
Its raining in Melbourne, should prove to be a bit slippery.
Talk of the town is Demons will play up to 4 guys on Dusty. So maybe there is a defensive plan to shut the game down.
But Im going to leave this game alone.
The line over under is 174.5 points.
I dont think they will make it to 174, but Im not betting, leaving this game alone


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 24 Apr 2018 at 5:50pm
The G can handle a bit of rain so l think the conditions won't be bad at all. But l wouldn't be touching the total either.

Melbourne have this terrible habit of losing a quarter by 4-5 goals. They keep doing it. If they do that again tonight they will lose comfortably. So with that in mind, l'm going with Richmond at the minus.


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 25 Apr 2018 at 12:20am
Nice Bet MJB

Well done
And spot on
They got smashed in the last quarter.

The ball was slippery all night.
The MCG actually has heaters under the surface, dryers (from what I last heard anyway), so it never gets too bad, however wet still sits on surface, winter it gets dewy when the real cold comes, and they are bet games too.
All you want it is for be like soap, hard to pick up, hard to mark, so sometimes it doesnt need rain, just very cold and the grass holds some dew for the night games.

Ideal games are showers for the entire game, constant wet, and if you know its coming 2 days prior, get on.



Posted By: ExceedAndExcel
Date Posted: 25 Apr 2018 at 12:53am
Yes because you’re the only person on earth who would know that showers are coming. The bookmakers would never know it, let alone be smart enough to set the line accordingly.


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 25 Apr 2018 at 8:20pm
Of course they know its coming, but that doesnt mean they dont set the line too high
They do set it too high.
They bait punters who "dont" factor the rain.



Posted By: ExceedAndExcel
Date Posted: 25 Apr 2018 at 10:31pm
Originally posted by Redemption Redemption wrote:

Of course they know its coming, but that doesnt mean they dont set the line too high
They do set it too high.
They bait punters who "dont" factor the rain.




This of course is garbage and just highlights that what you know about punting could be written on the back of a postage stamp. Sometimes the line will be too high, sometimes too low and sometimes spot on. They don’t deliberately set it too high to bait anyone. If they did they would get crunched by the sharps (not you).


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 26 Apr 2018 at 7:30pm
Oh really genius.
Judge us at the end of the season to see how this actually goes.

This is how much you know, they often set it a whopping 50 points too high for a wet game
They set it at 155 even 165, 175, and the score ends up barely even making it to 120 let alone 165.

If its set at 165, and the score is 180, then good luck with that.
Physics determines the score is jard to reach 150 in a wet game, I will go with physics over your garbage.
Bookies can be as wrong as 50 point in a wet game.  Happens many times through a season.
The key is in knowing what game to choose when you recognise the line is indeed too high.



Posted By: ExceedAndExcel
Date Posted: 27 Apr 2018 at 5:27am
Originally posted by Redemption Redemption wrote:

Oh really genius.
Judge us at the end of the season to see how this actually goes.

This is how much you know, they often set it a whopping 50 points too high for a wet game
They set it at 155 even 165, 175, and the score ends up barely even making it to 120 let alone 165.

If its set at 165, and the score is 180, then good luck with that.
Physics determines the score is jard to reach 150 in a wet game, I will go with physics over your garbage.
Bookies can be as wrong as 50 point in a wet game.  Happens many times through a season.
The key is in knowing what game to choose when you recognise the line is indeed too high.




Another magnificent example of your cluelessness. The line is set whereby 50% of the time the actual result will be over and 50% of the time it will be under. Just because a score goes over by 15 points doesn’t mean the line was wrong. Bookmakers get it wrong often but not by 50 points. There are 50 point blowouts but that doesn’t mean the line should have been different by 50 points. When you post laughable stuff like that it just highlights why you’re relegated to posting hilarious conspiracy theories and pretending that you invented a casino game to impress complete strangers on an Internet forum.


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 27 Apr 2018 at 10:17am
LOL

Moron, if the line is 170 for a wet game, at $1.90. that means the game MUST reach over 170 points.
$1.90 chance to reach over 170 in a wet game??

Thats called a FALSE FAVOURITE


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 27 Apr 2018 at 3:47pm
Settle down fellas. This thread has started off hot with plenty of winners. Not one losing tip yet. Negativity is not allowed. Good vibes only please.



Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 27 Apr 2018 at 8:23pm
MJB,  live betting, Dogs V Blues

Its quarter time

William Hill, Dogs -40.5,  $3.50

I think thats value

Im throwing a hundy on that, just a little wager to start the round.


Posted By: ExceedAndExcel
Date Posted: 27 Apr 2018 at 8:41pm
Originally posted by Redemption Redemption wrote:

LOL

Moron, if the line is 170 for a wet game, at $1.90. that means the game MUST reach over 170 points.
$1.90 chance to reach over 170 in a wet game??

Thats called a FALSE FAVOURITE



Wrong spaz. It means 50% of the time it will go under 170 & 50% of the time it will go over. Assuming the price correctly, which they usually do within a couple of points. You are truly clueless.


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 27 Apr 2018 at 8:57pm
I'm on the Dogs to score 90+ at $2.15. It's my last leg of a multi. 50 at half time. Should be able to get 40 in the 2nd half.



Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 28 Apr 2018 at 9:27am
4 posters in the 3rd quarter screwed us!! Bloody unlucky.

Bont missed twice from 15 metres out directly in front. All you can do is laugh really. He would usually kick them with his eyes closed.



Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 29 Apr 2018 at 7:13am
Rain or not, every game is going unders. According to my notes there's been 17 games in a row go under the total. The last overs was round 4 Essendon v Port Adelaide.

The bookies will react next round surely. Those totals they frame in the 180's will be a thing of the past.


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 02 May 2018 at 7:01pm
MJB

start betting on all outdoor Melbourne games this week at the unders, and also the adelaide game

They have the lines far too high
they arent even making the line in the dry, let alone the rainband coming


Posted By: TIGER
Date Posted: 03 May 2018 at 7:08am
Pies -15.5 Vs Lions....

$1.80 Pies

-------------
Hidden In Hollywood


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 03 May 2018 at 4:23pm
Originally posted by TIGER TIGER wrote:

Pies -15.5 Vs Lions....

$1.80 Pies

I agree with that bet tiger

Pies traveled well to Adelaide and are playing at a high standard now
They should be far too good

lower sides do tend to love playing collingwood though, they lift for it

but pies should cover that line, they have really clicked into gear.


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 09 May 2018 at 9:56am
MCG Friday Night

20mm to 80mm predicted and strong winds

The line is set at 140.5 points.

There are bet options for game being under $150.5, odds $1.60

I honestly believe they will struggle to even get to 100 this friday night.

Shop for options for game to be under 160.5 too, as some markets have that, odds $1.30

The game will probably read something like 45 points to 48. a slogfest close struggle.

I cant see them even getting to 120 let alone 150

150 is actually a fairly high score, eg 100 to 50

cant see a team getting to 100 in these conditions. good luck. lol


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 09 May 2018 at 10:31am
You beat me to it Redemption. I knew you'd be all over that bet. They reckon it's going to be torrential rain for the next few days.

Alot of the games lately haven't been going over 150 in perfect conditions. So how the hell will this go over in a slog? No hope. Sell the house, sell the car, rob a bank. Do what you gotta do to get on. It's stealing money.

And once you collect, you may as well roll over the winnings onto the next day. Carlton v Essendon unders. It's set at 155.5. My mob the Bombers have only been scoring 60-70 of late. I can see this being something like 60-50 with Carlton getting up. We hate the wet. They beat us last year in wet conditions. And we are in shocking form. There's no doubt Carlton would have circled this game as their big chance of getting a W. I'm backing Carlton and unders.


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 10 May 2018 at 8:58pm
Spot on

This is a classic game the line is set too high
It opened up at 140.5 points.

The reason thats too high, is because it would take a damn fair effort to reach that score

Its more like a 50% chance that can only get to 120.

I always view it this way, the game would have to be 90 to 51, to beat the line
Thats actually decent scoring, even in dry this year, as you said.

I took the 150.5 option at $1.65 on william hill.

just cant see it being 90 to 61, or 80 to 71 in these conditions.
good luck to them if they do.

we are betting on physics and all the wasted time, missing marks, not hitting targets, ball to the ground, hard to even pick it up, let alone his handball and kick targets.
chews up the clock all over the place


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 11 May 2018 at 11:38am
there is a decent chance they wont even make it to 90 points tonight, let alone 150. lol


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 11 May 2018 at 11:43am
the line for tonight is down to 137.5

even that is generous

put it into perspective

to bet that line

1st quarter: 40 points
2nd quarter: 40 points
3rd quarter, 34 points
4th quarter, 24 points

etc etc as example

that is still solid scoring required.
good luck. lol

im happy with the $1.65 i took at under 150.5 points, 3 days ago.


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 11 May 2018 at 11:51am
Of course, we arent suggesting its "not" possible.
But what we are saying, its highly unlikely.

We are betting on the accuracy of the weather radars and weather formulas, to turn the odds against the house
No different to Blackjack
We pick our moments.

I would rate it only a 20% chance they make it to 140 points tonight.,
Certainly not a 50% chance

and thats the point of all this, swinging the likelihood on our favour by picking the right moments

do the bookies have a read on the weather?
of course they do

but their lines are wrong. they opened up at 140.5 points
its too generous. its not at all a 50% chance they can make it to that line tonight.

if they do, so be it.
but its more likely they wont, at best its only a 30% chance that could reach that line



Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 11 May 2018 at 2:26pm
You're on at the good price Redemption. The TAB are betting under 150.5 at $1.40.

I'm going to load up on the under 135.5 at $1.95.

And l'll have something on the Sydney/under 135.5 double at $4.90.

Why are Sydney out to $2.50? I think it's a flip of the coin game. I can't work out why Hawthorn are getting smashed in the betting. I gotta go with the value.


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 11 May 2018 at 7:17pm
I do think Swans are struggling at inside contested footy
I havent seen their stats, but a few games Ive watched, they seem to be shoved aside a little easy
But we all know that swans are notorious for rising up off the canvas, just when they dont seem like they can. Their whole culture is built on being the underdog tough team

I thought Hawks struggled in tassie a few weeks ago against saints in wet. they won, but werent exactly convincing

rain is easing now, but the ball will be soap. even just the cold air and dew is enough

i will say, 53 to 47, swans win.


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 11 May 2018 at 7:58pm
We might be in some trouble. No rain about, conditions look fine. The G holding up well. We need Mother Nature to come to our rescue.


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 11 May 2018 at 8:18pm
Can't win em all Redemption. Bit unlucky though. It's been raining all day but it's stopped for our game.

Not many stoppages either which is rare for this season. Both coaches prepared to chance their arm.


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 11 May 2018 at 10:21pm
Unreal hey!

Fell on 150 exactly. Go buy a tattslotto ticket Redemption.

No joy for me. I copped it up the ass.

Bring on the baked beans.


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 11 May 2018 at 10:31pm
WTF was that????

LOL

Freak first quarter

Only a further 98 points after that

This is the gamble though, the radars.
had it rained, theres no doubt we make it easily.
the wet, cold, dew, keeps it low. Most of the match the skills were very very good, playing almost like it was dry.
It was actually high standard, a very good game

Oh Melbourne city, love it, hate it, lol.

there were some very interesting "live" bet options for unders 160 etc at half time

gee bloody whiz, dont want that one again

Im going to wait one hour before the game next time. lol. that freaked me out. 1st quarter was crazy business.




Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 9:24am
Ive worked out how to word this, despite last night scare.

When a bookie sets a line for a wet game, lets say they set it at 148, which is more likely in a wet game, allowing for 40 points either side of the 148 line

108 points?

or

188 points?

Which would you lean towards being more likely?

You know the answer

Thats why the line is wrong and generous.
A dramatic swing either side of the line, is far more likely to be UNDER the line.
Thats why its value


Posted By: oneonesit
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 10:46am
You have a most odd way of analysing prices Redemption. Fact is the bookies got the line wrong - they rated it about 10 points too low - not high (as you are trying to argue). You took $1.65 for under 150.5 - you fell in at 150. If you had taken the $1.90 even stevens price the line was around 140 so your unders bet would have lost.
To suggest the bookies set lines too high for matches played in the wet is ridiculous. This thread will end up in the scrap heap like all the others you have started over the years.

-------------
Scientist & Global Warming Expert


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 11:41am
Hang on a second.

The facts of the matter are this...

The game only just went overs. It's not like we were completely off.

I was factoring in a little bit of rain to fall during the game (didn't happen l know) But imagine if there was rain about. The total wouldn't have got to 100. It rained on and off all day but we got nothing for the game. A little bit stiff.

Also,

A 3rd gamer kicked 7 goals. You probably won't see that again for another decade.

That's what it took for the game to just reach overs.

It was the right bet to make. It just didn't happen for us. That's the punt.



Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 11:48am
Love how people come in here to put the boots in when a bet gets rolled.

It's impossible to go at 100%.

And as for last night, Redemption hit his under 150.5. And l did tip Sydney at the $2.50.

This thread has promise. I'll be the first person to get up and leave if l think it's going nowhere.


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 12 May 2018 at 4:30pm
I don't know why l'm playing around with the totals. I got dicked by Mother Nature. No rain at the G last night or today.

Just keep it simple and back who's going to win. Sydney $2.50. Carlton $4.00.


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 18 May 2018 at 5:17pm
Crows v Dogs tonight

The showers look steady, coming in nice and consistently on radar and predicted to last until 10pm

The line is too high, its set at 169.5

Ive bet it

Crows can score heavily but I think Dogs can tighten this game up.

Again, I say, do you like the chances of this game being 199 points, or 139 points?
Thats 30 points either side of the line

I know which one I prefer

Unders is a great chance tonight, 169.5


Posted By: stayer
Date Posted: 18 May 2018 at 5:24pm
I've had a bet on the dogs to win for fun. Crows missing a lot of good players, dogs probably feeling more confidence, and it's wet. Worth a spec on the dogs for something to watch in the corner of your eye at the pub.

-------------
"She's going through a growth phase." - GW


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 18 May 2018 at 5:39pm
The TAB have a special bet up this week that's caught my eye. No team for the round to score 120+ at $7.

The only dangers in my opinion are Port against GC and Melbourne against Carlton. I can't see any other mob getting to 120.

It's worth a crack at the $7.


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 18 May 2018 at 8:02pm
Pissing down Redemption. Looking very good my friend.


Posted By: VOYAGER
Date Posted: 18 May 2018 at 8:20pm
Anyone got how many tickets are actually sold in Shanghai?

Port should have a raffle, like those ones pubs have when you have to nominate how many smarties are in the jar and nearest selection wins

I predict 100 tickets sold, but amazingly it will be a "sell out".

Best bet for the round is Kochie saying it was a great success, oh wait a minute he is in London for the wedding.

-------------
Remember, it might take intelligence to be smart , but it takes experience to be wise


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 18 May 2018 at 9:04pm
This game is the quintessential example of the line being miles too high
5pm tonight, the line was 169.5
by 6pm, it was still 168.5

they may not even make it to 70, let alone 170

its a licensed to print money. they set the line miles too high. they kept making the same mistake last year



Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 24 May 2018 at 10:09pm
Freo v Kangas on Sunday in Perth

10mm to 20mm rain predicted

The line is still set too high
152.5

Betting under the line here.


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 25 May 2018 at 1:51am
Already down to 145.5 with most corporates.



Posted By: ExceedAndExcel
Date Posted: 25 May 2018 at 7:13am
Originally posted by MJB MJB wrote:

Already down to 145.5 with most corporates.




Most? Not really. Looks a pretty even split between 152.5, 149.5 & 145.5 to me. Happy to be on over 145.5 & under 152.5. Looking for a middle.


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 25 May 2018 at 10:10am
Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

Originally posted by MJB MJB wrote:

Already down to 145.5 with most corporates.




Most? Not really. Looks a pretty even split between 152.5, 149.5 & 145.5 to me. Happy to be on over 145.5 & under 152.5. Looking for a middle.


Yeah, nah.

TAB 145.5
Sportsbet 145.5
Ladbrokes 145.5
Crownbet don't have an each of two way total. They've got under 150.5 at $1.68. So if they did have an each of two total it would be around that 145.5 mark.
Neds 147.5
Bet365 148.5
William Hill 152.5

I think l've listed most of the big boys.

Looks like most to me, but l did drop out of school early so maybe l'm not adding them up so good.

What you're hoping for is for it to land in a very small gap. Good luck with that.


Posted By: ExceedAndExcel
Date Posted: 25 May 2018 at 11:18am
Originally posted by MJB MJB wrote:

Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

Originally posted by MJB MJB wrote:

Already down to 145.5 with most corporates.




Most? Not really. Looks a pretty even split between 152.5, 149.5 & 145.5 to me. Happy to be on over 145.5 & under 152.5. Looking for a middle.


Yeah, nah.

TAB 145.5
Sportsbet 145.5
Ladbrokes 145.5
Crownbet don't have an each of two way total. They've got under 150.5 at $1.68. So if they did have an each of two total it would be around that 145.5 mark.
Neds 147.5
Bet365 148.5
William Hill 152.5

I think l've listed most of the big boys.

Looks like most to me, but l did drop out of school early so maybe l'm not adding them up so good.

What you're hoping for is for it to land in a very small gap. Good luck with that.



7 pts is not a small gap. People (not me) make a living out of finding middles. So no I won’t need “good luck with that” because it’s a profitable play long term.

And thanks for listing all of those lines several hours later. They weren’t that when you posted that’s for sure.


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 25 May 2018 at 11:23am
Even 140.5 is still too high

If the BOM is accurate, they will struggle to make it to 100.

As I say, lets say the line is 150.5, do you like the chances of the game getting to 30 points over the line, to 180, or 30 points under the line, to just 120 points?

Thats how you truly determine the stronger likelihood that you are betting on the correct side of the line
The correct side, is under the line, because there is simply a far greater likelihood the score only makes 120, not 180.


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 25 May 2018 at 11:27am
William Hill is 145.5

That line is still too high

To put that scoring into perspective

1st quarter: 40
2nd quarter: 40
3rd quarter: 30
4th quarter, 36

total 146

Thats still good scoring, even in dry. Those scores represent a fluent, steady stream of scoring.

Line is too high at 145.5



Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 25 May 2018 at 11:35am
Im making another bet this weekend

Geelong at -53.5   against Carlton

I expect Cats to come out in a ruthless manner this weekend, after pathetic game against Essendon

I wont be shocked if Cats make that minus line by half time, and win by over 90 points.


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 06 Jun 2018 at 6:15pm
Friday

Port v Richmond in Adelaide

5 to 15mm predicted

Line is at 142.5

Happy to snap that up

Scoring would have to be

40
40
30
33

Too high

Load up.


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 06 Jun 2018 at 6:19pm
Sunday

Freo v Crows, sunday in perth

Rain predicted

Line is 158.5

That line is decent for a dry game

Betting here too. Early bet, happy to risk it at a line that high.


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 07 Jun 2018 at 4:55am
Surprised you aren't all over the Friday night game, Redemption. Port v Richmond. The total is 140.5. I don't even need to look at the weather forecast. The total is clearly telling us there's rain about. I wonder how bad it'll be? Remember that Crows v Dogs game a few weeks back. If it's anything like that it'll barely get to the ton.


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 07 Jun 2018 at 4:58am
Apologies! Just saw your double post now. I originally only saw the last post. I really need to get some sleep.

Here l was thinking you missed the Port game. I should have known better than to doubt you.


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 08 Jun 2018 at 6:14pm
MJB

I may dump tonights bet.
Waiting for the pre-game show, to see if grass a bit slippery.
If it appears dry, Im going to bet the over line, and cop a minor loss.
Will decide at 7.15 tonight.


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 08 Jun 2018 at 6:25pm
It appears the rain/wet deck isn't as bad as they first thought. The total has jumped from 140.5 to 148.5.

Google search live webcams in Adelaide. You can get a bit of a guide that way.

Either way, l'm not getting involved. Looks a tough round of footy this week. I think l'll stay out.


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 08 Jun 2018 at 7:28pm
I already made the bet yesterday MJB

Ive had to make a bet over the line and will cop a minor loss.


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 08 Jun 2018 at 11:21pm
It still went under 140 despite not a drop of rain. There was only a handful of goals in that 2nd half.

Just goes to show any game that involves wet weather footy and/or challenging conditions just take the under. You'll collect 9 times out of 10.


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 09 Jun 2018 at 9:52am
Thats right MJB
Bet under the line really hard, 2 to 3 days before the game, when rain predicted, get the line as high as you can.
If the rain doesnt come on the day, just lay your bet, cop a minor loss.

By example, Ive just put $1,800 on the Freo v Crows game, line, 156.5
Bet under the line
Torrential rain and storms predicted. 15mm to 30mm

The beautiful thing about this, is you can also bet "live" during the game.
So if the rain doesnt come, or they are having a freak scoring day, pick up the phone, ring thru a live bet, to bet over the line, hedging, so you only cop a minor loss.

So you either win huge with the early bet at under the line.
Or just take a minor loss

Its a license to print money.


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 09 Jun 2018 at 10:02am
william hill offers several total match points "live" during game

so I will be watching the 1st and 2nd quarters closely for the freo v crows game.
if the 1st quarter is a slogfest, i wont have to hedge.
sit back, watch, enjoy, as they struggle to even get to 100 or 120.

if scoring is a bit freakish, or game a bit dry first half, pick up the phone, hedge at a line over 156.5, and just accept a minor loss.

I had $900 on last night game, i hedged a further 700 when rain didnt come. came out about even.

accept a minor loss if rain doesnt come. just hedge it.
the big wins, put you way ahead of the minor losses of hedging.

so run it like a short stock.

play it like a stock market
our stock is the rain.
our information agency is the weather bureau.

AFL is the most rain affected outcome sport in the world.
its a high scoring sport, that becomes low scoring in rain.


Posted By: oneonesit
Date Posted: 09 Jun 2018 at 6:02pm
Gee there is some codswallop going on here. The unders do not get up "9 times out of 10" MJB. And this crap with redemption laying off live for a "minor loss" if the game is screaming points will result in either a much higher line being set - or if the original line is taken you will get the shorts ($1.05 or similar). If you do the former you are in danger of falling between the 2 lines & losing the lot. If the later you are getting a "major" loss. I'm not sure why you guys think you are so much better than the bookies - over a season you are likely to lose the vig just like every other mug punter.

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Scientist & Global Warming Expert


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 10 Jun 2018 at 3:09pm
MJB, Im on a multi and will collect if freo game sits under 158.5

Im in a position due to multi, that I can profit even if I bet the over current line of 155.5.

do you think I should?
sitting here, cant make up my mind. lol

oh by the way, oneisit, the line gap you speak of, actually generally works in favour, not against.
Im even in that position right now.
If I bet over the 155.5, and the game is 156, Im going to collect at both the under and over the line.

also, you didnt factor that sites like william hill, offer multiple lines, eg, under 190.5, under 180.5, with different odds.
you can just pick whatever line you want, and hedge, accept a minor loss, or in some cases, profit, which is the situation Im in right now, can pick the overs line and Im still going to profit.



Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 10 Jun 2018 at 3:58pm
Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:


Gee there is some codswallop going on here. The unders do not get up "9 times out of 10" MJB. And this crap with redemption laying off live for a "minor loss" if the game is screaming points will result in either a much higher line being set - or if the original line is taken you will get the shorts ($1.05 or similar). If you do the former you are in danger of falling between the 2 lines & losing the lot. If the later you are getting a "major" loss. I'm not sure why you guys think you are so much better than the bookies - over a season you are likely to lose the vig just like every other mug punter.


I don't think you understood what l meant. In my opinion unders gets up 9 times out of 10 WHEN rain is coming down or the ground is a bog. Actually, it's not an opinion. I will say it's factual.

Go back through the games this year. You will see that l'm on the money.

Very rarely do l save bets Redemption unless my opinion changes. Live by the sword, die by the sword.

But obviously with the total going up by a fair bit it's going to be perfect conditions. So when that's the case, maybe you should save. Because your original opinion with the wet is now invalid.

Good luck.


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 11 Jun 2018 at 7:45am
Thanks MJB

I let go of some of the multi profit and hedged a little bit.
Obviously the game finished at the unders anyway, which was still my preferred result.
Came out with a nice profit.


Posted By: oneonesit
Date Posted: 11 Jun 2018 at 9:10am
Yes I did factor that in Redemption. I have 5 Corporate Accounts including William Hill.
 
Well we can make this easy. How about this challenge - starting from today you both post your bets you "actually" have on the AFL. I mean you are both obviously doing it as according to you guys it is raining dollars. None of this "well this line looks good" , "I might lay off here" , "take a minor loss" stuff - just actual bets with the amount staked , the price & the day/time the bet was placed, & which Corporate you had it with. If either of you are ahead at seasons end I'll be happy to agree you are better than the bookies at assessing wet weather & the lines they set.
 
And please Redemption - real bets. Its often one thing to see a live price & another to get it - in AFL one goal can change the offer considerably (esp. late in the game)Not this doubling / tripling up until you get a result.
 
I know I come across as a nark - just struggle with anyone saying there are "systems" that consistently beat the bookies. Maybe there is, & you have one - would just like to see it in practice.
 
Cheers  


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Scientist & Global Warming Expert


Posted By: ExceedAndExcel
Date Posted: 11 Jun 2018 at 10:02am
Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:


Yes I did factor that in Redemption. I have 5 Corporate Accounts including William Hill.
 
Well we can make this easy. How about this challenge - starting from today you both post your bets you "actually" have on the AFL. I mean you are both obviously doing it as according to you guys it is raining dollars. None of this "well this line looks good" , "I might lay off here" , "take a minor loss" stuff - just actual bets with the amount staked , the price & the day/time the bet was placed, & which Corporate you had it with. If either of you are ahead at seasons end I'll be happy to agree you are better than the bookies at assessing wet weather & the lines they set.
 
And please Redemption - real bets. Its often one thing to see a live price & another to get it - in AFL one goal can change the offer considerably (esp. late in the game)Not this doubling / tripling up until you get a result.
 
I know I come across as a nark - just struggle with anyone saying there are "systems" that consistently beat the bookies. Maybe there is, & you have one - would just like to see it in practice.
 
Cheers  




You can be sure that anyone saying anything like “9 out of 10” has absolutely zero scientific basis for the claim.


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 11 Jun 2018 at 10:56am
Everyone is potting the unders in the wet theory but l haven't yet seen anyone show me a game that has gone over the total in these wet conditions?

Just off the top of my head...

Gold Coast v North didn't get to 100 in torrential rain.
Adelaide v Bulldogs didn't get to 100 in torrential rain.

They're the two that come to mind straight away. Plenty of other games that have involved a bog ground and/or windy conditions. I would like to go back round by round but l've got form to get done on the races today. That takes priority over arguing with a couple of blokes on a racing forum.

Oneonesit,

This is no chestbeating contest. I'm the first to admit l've had a nightmare last 6 months on the punt. I'm not winning. Horse racing has been f*****g me. I'm slightly in front on footy.

It's quite logical really. The tougher the conditions on the players the bigger the certainty the under is. That's all l'm saying. If you're good at predicting the weather you can win. It's not always easy though of course.

Let's just say you see there's a reasonable chance of rain occurring during a game a few days out, you can get on at say under 150-160. When the game comes around and it's pouring you've already collected. It can't possibly go overs. But if the rain hasn't come as predicted, just lay off and take a small loss. No big deal.

Anyway, for what it's worth - l'll give you a moral next week. I've been waiting a while for this game. Richmond will beat Geelong next week. Take the two goal line. There's a big chance they'll win over 39 as well which will be around $4.






Posted By: oneonesit
Date Posted: 11 Jun 2018 at 11:52am
Trouble is MLB - it wont be a minor loss. For example - you do your homework on a game that rain is forecast & you lock in under 150 at $1.90 (this assumes you get set at all - often market is suspended this far out if forecast is all over the place). Then on game day the forecast changes to no /minimal rain - & the $1.90 line drifts to say around 175 (or even higher). The offer from the Corporates that offer numerous lines will have the over 150 now around $1.20. So do you lay off at the $1.20 or not ? You obviously cannot take over 175 as there is now a 25 point spread in between were both the unders & overs lose. The reality with this type of approach is that it sounds logical & easy to manage. In practice it is neither - that's why you need to actually use real bets to give it a fair crack

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Scientist & Global Warming Expert


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 11 Jun 2018 at 12:05pm
Fair call. Redemption can answer that one for you.

I don't usually save bets. I'll ride with what l've got unless my opinion goes the other way.

The two games Redemption liked this round - neither of these games saw rain or difficult conditions and they still went under the original totals Redemption took.

Did the totals really go up that much? I think the Freo game only went up two points to 160.5. The Port game might have gone up a goal or two.

I remember a few week backs l was in a tote watching the Adelaide v Bulldogs game. They were only a few minutes from bouncing the ball and l could see it was absolutely pissing down. Tab were betting under 160.5. It was stealing money. And then they put up their individual quarter markets - under 37 at $2.10 for example. I don't think l've had an easier collect in my life.

Just gotta wait for the right moments.

If l see rain and they're betting on the over/under l'm taking unders every time.

But sometimes l see betting companies get scared and they refuse to bet on a live total market when they see it's raining during a game. Weak as piss.



Posted By: oneonesit
Date Posted: 11 Jun 2018 at 1:38pm
I would have thought the same game played in heavy /wet conditions vs a game in dry/good conditions would be a difference in overs/unders line of at least 20 to 30 points.

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Scientist & Global Warming Expert


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 14 Jun 2018 at 10:10am
137.5 tonight Redemption. Obviously a good chance of a bog. Did you already load up?


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 14 Jun 2018 at 1:12pm
Hi MJB

I took the 138.5 line on william hill yesterday.
They are sand bagging areas around Adelaide, so its expected to be bad.
Also 90kph winds, hard to shhot at set shot for goal.
Much time is wasted on set shots, then they miss. It really drags the scores down.
I love it when a player marks, around 40 to 50 out, windy, just makes it all that bit harder.

Oneisit, you still dont seem to understand the point.
Tonights game by example is 138.5.

What I ask myself, is would the game be a better chance of getting to 158.5 in wet, or 118.5 in the wet?
Thats a 20 point swing either side of the line.

The correct side of the line, is the unders, because they struggle to even get to 100, let alone 160 in the wet.

Your "drift" on the line blowing out, if its dry, what total garbage. No offence
They only shift the line 2 to 8 points. Ive never even seen them shift it 10 points, let alone 20 or 30.

Tonights game being 138.5, scores are required to be

35
35
30
39

that is still relatively consistent scoring, even in dry

The thing is, in a true wet game, they struggle to even score 20 in a quarter, which then means, they have to make up ground in another quarter, by scoring 5o to 60 in a wet quarter.
It just gets harder and harder, and less and less likely to achieve the line.

What we are TRULY betting on, is the BOM.
They get it right around 90 to 95%
Thats the true math of our success, because as Ive said, and as its already being proven on here, they set the line way too high

Tonights line show be more like 110.5
Because the truth is, if the wind and rain is as bad as predicted by the BOM, they will struggle to even score 100, let alone 140.

You also forget, many punters see a line, 138.5, and think, "Oh, they will make it past that".
And they lose.
They are the LOSING PUNTERS.
The ones the bookies are making their cash off.

We are betting on the correct side of the line, end of story.


Posted By: oneonesit
Date Posted: 14 Jun 2018 at 1:49pm
Absolute twaddle Redemption. So the bookies only set an overs/unders line on a 95% heavy ground vs a 95% good ground at 2 to 8 points difference ? We are talking AFL & not NRL here are we not ? You are also a long way away from proving your case. I'm prepared to be patient

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Scientist & Global Warming Expert


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 14 Jun 2018 at 1:56pm
There's a huge forecast variation between these 2

Thu
Jun 14
Fri
Jun 15
Sat
Jun 16





Windy with showers

Showers

Possible shower




Maximum 16°C 15°C 14°C



Minimum 11°C 11°C 9°C



Chance of Rain 80% 60% 60%



Rain Amount 5-10mm 1-5mm 1-5mm

Here is the South Australian forecast until Sunday, I would assume that most of this rain is now going to come close to the two fronts, rather rely on showers in the SW stream behind the front.

Its going to be a very wet night if you are heading to the Adelaide Oval, and very wild and windy. But it still brings decent totals, so the front itself may have a big band of storms on it this afternoon.



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Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 14 Jun 2018 at 2:02pm
No flash odds with Ladbrokes!

150 or below
https://www.ladbrokes.com.au/sports/australian-rules/56544388-afl-round-13/56544388-port-adelaide-vs-western-bulldogs/#bet" rel="nofollow - 1.33
151-160
https://www.ladbrokes.com.au/sports/australian-rules/56544388-afl-round-13/56544388-port-adelaide-vs-western-bulldogs/#bet" rel="nofollow - 7


-------------
Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 14 Jun 2018 at 4:23pm
Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:

Absolute twaddle Redemption. So the bookies only set an overs/unders line on a 95% heavy ground vs a 95% good ground at 2 to 8 points difference ? We are talking AFL & not NRL here are we not ? You are also a long way away from proving your case. I'm prepared to be patient

The bookies set the lines high, end of story.
For wet games, and yes, they read the BOM too, of course they do, they still set it too high.
Thats the whole point of what we are saying.
I recall as few years back, it was totally pouring in Geelong, and the bookies had the line at 172.5
I couldnt put enough money on it.

Ever so gradually, and I mean gradually, the bookies are realising their wet game lines are far too high.

Tonights game, 138.5, its still too high.

If its pouring, as expected, and the game finishes at 160, 150, etc, then do be it.
But the point is, more often than not, it finishes way below the line in a truly wet game.
Its like 95% that it will finish under the generous line in a truly wet game

AFL is the most score affected sport in the world when it comes to rain.

Its a sport than in the dry, it can be 200 points. And in the wet, it can be 100.

Breakdown the math even more.
Lets say its pouring, and the line is 140

thats 40, 40, 30, 30, each quarter

To achieve even just 40, thats 6 goals, 4 points.
Thats a goal, every 3 minutes of the game.
can it happen?
Yes, it can

But to score a goal, every 3 minutes of the game, in the rain, is HIGHLY unlikely.

If it was Blackjack, yes, we are counting the cards, the weather cards, and in worst case scenario, you can layoff the bet, if its dry, and cop a small loss.


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 14 Jun 2018 at 4:37pm
What price did you get for your 138.5?



-------------
Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 14 Jun 2018 at 4:38pm
Geezx, the conditions are really really bad
Doppler radar, wind is a whopping 90.
There is consistent rain coming, and hard rain

The line has dropped to 136.5 on william hill

thats still too high

they will be lucky to get to 100 tonight

going by what radar is doing now, maybe even struggle to get to 90.


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 14 Jun 2018 at 4:39pm
Yep, they're $1.95 for that.


-------------
Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 14 Jun 2018 at 4:46pm
Lets see who can get closest to the actual game result

I will say:
Port: 63
Dogs: 42

Total: 105


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 14 Jun 2018 at 4:48pm
Originally posted by Gay3 Gay3 wrote:

What price did you get for your 138.5?


Hi Gay, $1.90 for the 138.5, yesterday.

Im still betting. LOL
Ive just made 3 more bets at 136.5 and Im watching radar and may keep betting at 7pm for more of the unders.


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 14 Jun 2018 at 5:15pm
TAB is also showing $2.80, for line under 125.5, so I just bet that too, simply as its a chance to almost triple outlay.


Posted By: oneonesit
Date Posted: 14 Jun 2018 at 10:31pm
Originally posted by Redemption Redemption wrote:

Lets see who can get closest to the actual game result

I will say:
Port: 63
Dogs: 42

Total: 105
Final score Port 132. WB 75. Total 207

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Scientist & Global Warming Expert


Posted By: MJB
Date Posted: 14 Jun 2018 at 10:36pm
Hope you managed to limit your losses Redemption.

Ended up being perfect conditions, which can happen. But basically you stood no chance which is frustrating.



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