He will need all of the weight relief though, don't read too much into it, I have this conversation on here all the time. Weight for age is weight for age - it's not a benefit or a luxury or cheating the handicapper. It's weight relief because they need it.

Look at Shoals. I backed her, yes. And the weight scenario is part of the equation. But she fell in. Otherwise 3yos would win all WFA races they compete in and the scale would be thrown out. It certainly helps though when they can race on speed or lead.

I wouldn't know how many 3yos have competed in this race, but I know you'd likely count them on one hand. The only two of note I can recall in recent memory are Casual Pass and Seaburge.

Seaburge ran a good 2nd to Awesome Rock - no star but a multiple G1 WFA winner and particularly effective at Flemington 2000m - and Casual Pass won. Seaburge had only won a 2yo maiden and the VRC Sires, before running 2nd in the Caulfield Guineas i.e. he was nothing special and has proven as much since. Casual Pass, who I believe was a serious horse but for the breakdown, had won a Geelong maiden in the same prep he won the Mackinnon, and, while he was a leading 3yo, he was winning the State Stakes and Norman Robinson - fairly comparable to Cliffs Edge who won the Norman Robinson equivalent.

My point being these two were hardly dominant, star 3yos. Same applies for the Cox Plate winners - Shamus Award couldn't beat his peers, So You Think had won a Gloaming and was beaten a mile in the Caulfield Guineas, Savabeel a Spring Champion winner who was later beaten in the Derby. I think a lot has to do with it being a 2000m race - anything can happen as we are often weak for depth at that distance in WFA ranks and the 3yos who can win a G1 WFA race over 2000m won't necessarily be dominant by the time they get there as they've probably been beaten by 3yos with more speed.

Cliff's Edge has come into his own once stepped up in trip - a lot to do with his racing style, but also his ability to cruise at a good speed and kick off it. Perfectly suited to 2000m WFA - maybe not so at Flemington where leaders have a far inferior strikerate compared to all other tracks.

Re Aloisia, I can't knock him for being belted by her. She's a star, we all know that. He did the same to the rest of the field in the Vase, including two horses who weren't beaten all that far by Ace High in the Derby.

His biggest danger is if the pressure is on start to finish. He will handle some early pressure if they then back off and let him do his thing. But if they make him work, then go again mid-race or earlier than normal, it will be very hard for him to do it at both ends like it would be for any other leader in this race - 3yo or otherwise.

No mucking about.

Grunt will find it difficult.

This will likely be pace on first 400 then back right off and brakes go on. Half the field will cop horses in their laps, some horses overracing, and most of the field eager to settle off the speed and get their horse relaxing to ensure they see out a strong mile.

Cliff out of all that scrimmage and doing the racking and stacking before winding up and making it hard for something to catch him. With even luck Grunt can run him down but I'm not sure there's an even chance he gets even luck on what I'm seeing unless they burn him early.

Plenty of get back run on horses in this race, might be a boon for on pacers like Cliff's Edge.

and the tempo.

Winner too good though.

Belfast was good enough late also whereas Astoria ran as his form suggested.