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Craig Williams

Printed From: Thoroughbred Village
Category: Horse Racing - Public Forums
Forum Name: Racing Forum
Forum Description: General discussion about thoroughbred horse racing
URL: https://forum.thoroughbredvillage.com.au/forum_posts.asp?TID=58523
Printed Date: 29 Mar 2024 at 4:19am
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Topic: Craig Williams
Posted By: Smoke and Mirrors
Subject: Craig Williams
Date Posted: 01 Oct 2016 at 12:09am
that ride on Sir Bacchus was horrible

I am sick of the gelati he dishes up week in week out and gets away with.




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"Go Hard or Go Home”



Replies:
Posted By: Xavier
Date Posted: 01 Oct 2016 at 12:12am
I wish he'd retire.


Posted By: BlackKnight
Date Posted: 01 Oct 2016 at 12:34am
Keep talking through your kick fellas, third in the premiership with far less opportunities than the two ahead of him.


Posted By: swanks
Date Posted: 01 Oct 2016 at 12:43am
Give it up. He's a jockey, they ride 500 - 600kg beasts around a course, and a short course at that, which doesn't give the jockey much time to make a decision or calculate where the others are making their runs. Bad ride? Yes. Will other jockeys do it? Yes.

Maybe we should adopt straight racing everywhere with lanes, bit like 100m sprint. No interference, no finding trouble. Just a straight lane. Then get rid of jockeys all together. Put on robots, let the punters all have a crack at controlling the robots (as long as they're invested on the horse), maybe even let the owners do it

Either way, we all eff up, you guys are just lucky your not being judged on national tv


Posted By: Ermyn Lodge
Date Posted: 01 Oct 2016 at 1:18am
Moonee Valley and Canterbury pony tracks should be closed. Wide draws make racing a little more dangerous and severely disadvantage some runners. Jockeys are often victims of circumstance. Cities do not need 3 tracks. Better to build a training only complex out of town where horses can enjoy country settings than be trussed up in boxes. Then city tracks can be more readily maintained without wear and tear of training and trials with the infield made into a golf course or other sporting facility.


Posted By: JimmyUK
Date Posted: 01 Oct 2016 at 1:27am
Alot of sore losers on this forum tonight.

If he wins then Williams is an amazing jockey. If he loses then punters eviscerate him. Perhaps the horse was a piece of turd and it's not entirely his fault.

Is there anyway I can delete my account? This forum is depressing.


Posted By: djebel
Date Posted: 01 Oct 2016 at 10:04am
Originally posted by JimmyUK JimmyUK wrote:

Alot of sore losers on this forum tonight.

If he wins then Williams is an amazing jockey. If he loses then punters eviscerate him. Perhaps the horse was a piece of turd and it's not entirely his fault.

Is there anyway I can delete my account? This forum is depressing.

Anybody who says "Perhaps the horse is a piece of turd" should be banned for life from the forum, You piece of turd. 


I should be safe with that comment a halfwit would know if they do not want to participate they simply would not return.





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reductio ad absurdum


Posted By: djebel
Date Posted: 01 Oct 2016 at 10:05am
Originally posted by Smoke and Mirrors Smoke and Mirrors wrote:

that ride on Sir Bacchus was horrible

I am sick of the gelati he dishes up week in week out and gets away with.



What exactly was wrong with the ride ?

This is Moonee Valley, You have to factor in hard luck stories into your pricing of a runner.

Williams would have need a helicopter to get into the clear.




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reductio ad absurdum


Posted By: therealkramer
Date Posted: 01 Oct 2016 at 11:02am
Originally posted by djebel djebel wrote:

Originally posted by Smoke and Mirrors Smoke and Mirrors wrote:

that ride on Sir Bacchus was horrible

I am sick of the gelati he dishes up week in week out and gets away with.




What exactly was wrong with the ride ?



This is Moonee Valley, You have to factor in hard luck stories into your pricing of a runner.

Williams would have need a helicopter to get into the clear.




Willie Pike only needed a pogo stick to get Elite Belle clear in the 2014 Railway Stakes.....good times


Posted By: Kingy
Date Posted: 01 Oct 2016 at 11:22am
Probably rides 3 or 4 winners today and sticks it right up the critics. But that's racing...


Posted By: JimmyUK
Date Posted: 01 Oct 2016 at 11:34am
Punters are a fickle lot. The best hoops win about 25℅ of races, so even they lose three quarters of the time.


Posted By: Sworn Revenge
Date Posted: 01 Oct 2016 at 12:12pm
Originally posted by BlackKnight BlackKnight wrote:

Keep talking through your kick fellas, third in the premiership with far less opportunities than the two ahead of him.


Too right Blacknight.

Rode a treble at the last Sat metro meeting and the Vic metro premiership last season but never let cold hard facts get in the way of potting someone.

Djebel is right. If you want to bet at Moonee Valley then caveat emptor because it's always going to produce hard luck stories

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It's only called gambling when you lose


Posted By: subastral
Date Posted: 01 Oct 2016 at 12:29pm
My theory on Craig. He studies races a lot and his prep is excellent. However, when the speed map doesntplan out, or the race is different, he lacks the quick thinking to step into plan B. Oliver and Bowman leave him for dead in this aspect. His bad rides are consistently worse than other elite jockeys and he rides poor more often. I don't think its a coincidence.


Posted By: Carioca
Date Posted: 01 Oct 2016 at 12:59pm
Originally posted by Ermyn Lodge Ermyn Lodge wrote:

Moonee Valley and Canterbury pony tracks should be closed. Wide draws make racing a little more dangerous and severely disadvantage some runners. Jockeys are often victims of circumstance. Cities do not need 3 tracks. Better to build a training only complex out of town where horses can enjoy country settings than be trussed up in boxes. Then city tracks can be more readily maintained without wear and tear of training and trials with the infield made into a golf course or other sporting facility.

By gee Kev,.take away Eagle Farm and the Sunshine Coast,..and all the rest of your tracks up there are " depends"
tracks,..you need variation not only by design,.but also to make decisions outside the square IMO.


Posted By: swanks
Date Posted: 01 Oct 2016 at 1:01pm
I would agree with that subby. He's usually a good judge, especially of track conditions. But brain farts happen, and the valley wouldn't help him either. Blake shinn is another jockey i reckon struggles to read the valley. His ride on my country showed he didn't read the race/track


Posted By: RED HUNTER
Date Posted: 01 Oct 2016 at 1:25pm
I agree with djebel,you have to expect the worst when betting at Moonee Valley.

MV is the only Victorian track I've visited (1969)and I came away thinking,what a rubbish track (to bet)

as for Craig Williams,if you want to condemn a ride,look to BRAZEN BEAU in the Diamond Jubilee.
Then again,he could have been riding to instructions.

If not,it Ran 2nd after all,nearly pinched it.


Posted By: 3blindmice
Date Posted: 01 Oct 2016 at 2:44pm
It was Williams' decision to head out there on his own in the DJ Red. Travesty beaten.


Posted By: Lexawin
Date Posted: 01 Oct 2016 at 4:23pm
Most overated jockey in Australia... there is a reason why the other jocks call him Windy Williams.


Posted By: JimmyUK
Date Posted: 01 Oct 2016 at 4:46pm
And if he wins Craig is invited for Thanksgiving.

Punters are c$nts.


Posted By: Einstein
Date Posted: 01 Oct 2016 at 4:53pm
Originally posted by Lexawin Lexawin wrote:

Most overated jockey in Australia... there is a reason why the other jocks call him Windy Williams.
More likely because hes one of only a handlful of honest jocks left.


Posted By: Sunline
Date Posted: 02 Sep 2017 at 4:53pm
and go.

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Sunline...simply supreme


Posted By: scamanda
Date Posted: 02 Sep 2017 at 4:55pm
LOL..................................................................Ouch

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I started with nothing and still have most of it left


Posted By: Stainvita
Date Posted: 02 Sep 2017 at 4:56pm
No stewards in Melbourne so Craigy goes on his merry way 

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If your hands aren't shaking you haven't put enough on.


Posted By: Breeding Above All
Date Posted: 02 Sep 2017 at 4:58pm
Haha, wow.. this guy is unbelievable


Posted By: Stainvita
Date Posted: 02 Sep 2017 at 5:02pm
Apart from destroying the stud value of every 3 year old he gets on,not sure what Hayes sees in him.

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If your hands aren't shaking you haven't put enough on.


Posted By: Shawy38
Date Posted: 02 Sep 2017 at 5:12pm
I just came here to create a thread..


Posted By: 3blindmice
Date Posted: 02 Sep 2017 at 5:17pm
As I've said many times, Williams rides for luck far too often. 

Fuhryk looked disappointing late but it's hard to tell what she might have done had she got galloping room early in the straight.


Posted By: Shawy38
Date Posted: 02 Sep 2017 at 5:20pm
I think he must be a secret agent for some heavy hitting betfair punters.
Dodgy as dodgy can be.
Scum P O S


Posted By: 3blindmice
Date Posted: 02 Sep 2017 at 6:14pm
He absolutely pulled their pants down in the Memsie. Allowed to get ridiculously slow early sectionals.


Posted By: max manewer
Date Posted: 02 Sep 2017 at 6:15pm
Craig out of the naughty corner now ?


Posted By: Whale
Date Posted: 02 Sep 2017 at 6:21pm
he is going so badly, what a bunch of whining losers LOLLOL


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Victor Orban 1.74 m, Michael Bloomberg 1.73 m, Emmanual Macron 1.77 m, George Soros 1.8 m


Posted By: TJMitchell
Date Posted: 02 Sep 2017 at 6:23pm
Cant run up asses if you lead


Posted By: Whale
Date Posted: 02 Sep 2017 at 6:24pm
Originally posted by TJMitchell TJMitchell wrote:

Cant run up asses if you lead


1st one all day to win from lead


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Victor Orban 1.74 m, Michael Bloomberg 1.73 m, Emmanual Macron 1.77 m, George Soros 1.8 m


Posted By: Carioca
Date Posted: 02 Sep 2017 at 6:33pm
Not for me, at times too smart for his own good , the ride at the valley last week lacked all inititiative for a top jock, he's a big fish in a medium size pond, would starve in honkers,
Imho.


Posted By: skippy123
Date Posted: 02 Sep 2017 at 6:37pm
Tap on, tap off kinda guy ....


Posted By: TJMitchell
Date Posted: 02 Sep 2017 at 6:41pm
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

Originally posted by TJMitchell TJMitchell wrote:

Cant run up asses if you lead


1st one all day to win from lead

Not having a go, just stating a fact. A bit like yourself.


Posted By: Sworn Revenge
Date Posted: 02 Sep 2017 at 6:45pm
Originally posted by Shawy38 Shawy38 wrote:

I think he must be a secret agent for some heavy hitting betfair punters.
Dodgy as dodgy can be.
Scum P O S


Bang out of order Shawy. There are more talented riders but his integrity is second to none.

If you think he is guilty of pulling horses rather than simply poor rides you need to give yourself a serious uppercut.

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It's only called gambling when you lose


Posted By: Shawy38
Date Posted: 02 Sep 2017 at 6:56pm
Originally posted by Sworn Revenge Sworn Revenge wrote:

Originally posted by Shawy38 Shawy38 wrote:

I think he must be a secret agent for some heavy hitting betfair punters.
Dodgy as dodgy can be.
Scum P O S


Bang out of order Shawy. There are more talented riders but his integrity is second to none.

If you think he is guilty of pulling horses rather than simply poor rides you need to give yourself a serious uppercut.


Facts don't lie. He is very good at hiding it.
Watch him closely he is a shifty prick


Posted By: Sworn Revenge
Date Posted: 02 Sep 2017 at 7:04pm
Facts!!!



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It's only called gambling when you lose


Posted By: max manewer
Date Posted: 02 Sep 2017 at 7:11pm
These sorts of allegations are usually, as in this case, not borne out by data. There are a few though, that facts do seem to "convict".


Posted By: max manewer
Date Posted: 02 Sep 2017 at 7:16pm
There was a leading jockey in Brisbane a generation ago, that any statistically sound analysis of his performance on favourites, could only deduce they were "in the bag".


Posted By: Rusty101
Date Posted: 02 Sep 2017 at 9:14pm
Originally posted by Shawy38 Shawy38 wrote:

Originally posted by Sworn Revenge Sworn Revenge wrote:

Originally posted by Shawy38 Shawy38 wrote:

I think he must be a secret agent for some heavy hitting betfair punters.
Dodgy as dodgy can be.
Scum P O S


Bang out of order Shawy. There are more talented riders but his integrity is second to none.

If you think he is guilty of pulling horses rather than simply poor rides you need to give yourself a serious uppercut.


Facts don't lie. He is very good at hiding it.
Watch him closely he is a shifty prick

Pacemakers would quickly sort out these scum but there's a reason why our administrations are against them.....starts at the top I reckon.


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Rusty


Posted By: max manewer
Date Posted: 02 Sep 2017 at 9:26pm
Load of old cobblers, Williams is showing an SP profit on faves and second faves in the last year. Not good enough for youse ?


Posted By: Rusty101
Date Posted: 02 Sep 2017 at 10:47pm
"I’M NOT THAT SORT OF RIDER”

Visiting rider Michael Walker was put under pressure by stewards at Randwick on Saturday in the aftermath of his ride aboard the Chris Waller-trained My Giuliano in the National Jockeys Trust Benchmark 84 Handicap (2000m).

Walker was hauled before stewards to explain why My Giuliano had shifted out rounding the home turn to give the odds-on favourite and stablemate Up ‘N’ Rolling a dream run before recording his second win of this current campaign.

Stewards asked Walker did he know Up ‘N’ Rolling was behind the leaders and back to his inside to which he emphatically replied, "No”.

"I was on empty, I barely got over the line,” Walker told stewards.

"When a horse is on empty and you try to get around a corner, it starts floating.”

After reviewing the footage stewards conceded there was no evidence that Walker was aware of where Up ‘N’ Rolling was in the run and took no further action.

"It is clear your horse is under pressure at the corner when you place it under pressure,” chief steward Marc Van Gestel said.

Walker replied; "I’m not that sort of rider to be a team rider,” before leaving the stewards room.   

https://www.racenet.com.au/news/137000/Randwick-around-the-track-with-Clinton-Payne-on-Saturday" rel="nofollow - https://www.racenet.com.au/news/137000/Randwick-around-the-track-with-Clinton-Payne-on-Saturday           



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Rusty


Posted By: Rusty101
Date Posted: 02 Sep 2017 at 10:51pm
Stablemates to boot......nothing to see here right 

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Rusty


Posted By: 3blindmice
Date Posted: 02 Sep 2017 at 11:08pm
Runner up got the same run through as the winner so in the unlikely event that your conspiracy theory has any legs it seems that Walker didn't get that part of the message eh? 


Posted By: Rusty101
Date Posted: 02 Sep 2017 at 11:46pm
C/mon that's lame BM, odds on pops don't worry about who runs 2nd, usually space, and it's a stretch to claim stablemates don't know each others game plan.
If we, the punters keep policing each other, who will police on our behalf?


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Rusty


Posted By: 3blindmice
Date Posted: 03 Sep 2017 at 12:21am
Yes I see your point Rusty. Waller trained My Giuliano to run out of puff precisely at the corner knowing that Up n Rolling would be parked behind him on the rails. 

There are plenty of sus rides/trainer instructions (always a good fallback) worthy of comment but you're barking up the wrong tree with this example.

Conspiracies etc aside (nonsense imo), as the "best" Vic jockey Williams' penchant for parking horses behind bums (Charlevoix x 2, Fuhryk etc etc etc) is something worthy of a stewards warning at the very least I'd have thought.


Posted By: Rusty101
Date Posted: 03 Sep 2017 at 1:10am
Originally posted by 3blindmice 3blindmice wrote:

Yes I see your point Rusty. Waller trained My Giuliano to run out of puff precisely at the corner knowing that Up n Rolling would be parked behind him on the rails. 


Seeing is believing BM


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Rusty


Posted By: cabosanlucas
Date Posted: 03 Sep 2017 at 1:42pm
plymouth road was ridden out of the gates to lead...pulled at a good clip in front...and was still taken on in the lead.

suited wallers hot pot.


Posted By: Magnolian Khan
Date Posted: 03 Sep 2017 at 2:22pm
If it wasn't Williams I have little to no doubt the rider of Fuhryk would be questioned by stewards


Posted By: Stainvita
Date Posted: 03 Sep 2017 at 3:06pm
Originally posted by Magnolian Khan Magnolian Khan wrote:

If it wasn't Williams I have little to no doubt the rider of Fuhryk would be questioned by stewards

Trouble is that there are no stewards in Melbourne Metropolitan Racing,it is a carnival of treasure where reversals of form are not on anybody's radar.


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If your hands aren't shaking you haven't put enough on.


Posted By: rusty nails
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2017 at 11:03am
The horse was disappointing, he never spent a penny in the run, covered less ground than most and made no real ground on any horses in the run home.
Like many high profile favoured horses from that stable in the last few weeks, was disappointing/needed the run.
I will struggle to back it next start.


Posted By: mammoth
Date Posted: 04 Sep 2017 at 11:36pm
William Pike is the GOAT don't trust Craig Williams anymore


Posted By: max manewer
Date Posted: 05 Sep 2017 at 12:14am
If trust/distrust of jockeys figures prominently in your selection process, you are not going to be winning. Their form is up and down and all over the place, and trying to disentangle that from normal statistical variation, is not worth bothering with. The ones that are a handicap on a horse, beyond what the market factors in to the odds, are shuffled out of pack pretty quickly, and don't get rides. In my opinion, of course.


Posted By: Shawy38
Date Posted: 16 Sep 2017 at 9:53pm
23 meetings for nearly killing Damian Lane and Limestone


Posted By: SkyDancer
Date Posted: 16 Sep 2017 at 10:03pm
Craig Williams (Jukebox) - pleaded guilty to a charge of careless riding under the provisions of AR137(a), the carelessness being that inside the final 100m he permitted his mount to shift out whilst riding it along impeding the line of Booker, which in turn shifted out into the path of Limestone resulting in Limestone contacting the heel of Booker and falling, dislodging Damian Lane. Craig Williams had his licence to ride in races suspended for a period to commence at midnight September 16th and to expire at midnight October 7th, a total of twenty-three race meetings (seven metropolitan, sixteen provincial). In assessing penalty Stewards took into account his guilty plea and record, his carelessness caused a fall and the upcoming group meetings he will miss.


Posted By: Shawy38
Date Posted: 16 Sep 2017 at 11:00pm
Not sure how t post FB videos but the head on is on the racing.com page.
How Lane and Limestone are okay is beyond me. That was unbelievably dangerous.
23 meetings is putting it lightly

https://racing.com/news/2017-09-16/williams-hit-with-23-meet-whack" rel="nofollow - https://racing.com/news/2017-09-16/williams-hit-with-23-meet-whack

Reigning Melbourne premiership-winning jockey https://www.racing.com/jockeys/craig-williams" rel="nofollow - Craig Williams has copped a 23-meeting suspension for being central to the fall of https://www.racing.com/horses/limestone" rel="nofollow - Limestone and https://www.racing.com/jockeys/damian-lane" rel="nofollow - Damian Lane in the https://www.racing.com/form/2017-09-16/flemington/race/5/results" rel="nofollow - Danehill Stakes at Flemington on Saturday.

Williams - who will sit out Group 1 meetings at The Valley (Moir Stakes), Caulfield (Underwood Stakes and Rupert Clark Stakes) and Flemington (Turnbull Stakes) over the coming weeks - was riding https://www.racing.com/horses/jukebox" rel="nofollow - Jukebox in the Group 2 feature and was beaten three-quarters of a length into second on the https://www.racing.com/trainers/ciaron-maher" rel="nofollow - Ciaron Maher -trained colt by his usual ride https://www.racing.com/horses/catchy" rel="nofollow - Catchy .

But if that wasn't already painful enough for Williams seeing his ride - which was https://www.racing.com/jockeys/regan-bayliss" rel="nofollow - Regan Bayliss ' on Saturday as Williams was already committed to the colt before connections had a change of heart with Catchy - the stewards sanctioned him for shifting out over the final 100m and being central to Lane and Limestone clipping heels.

Williams pleaded guilty to a careless riding charge and was contrite in his evidence, adding that it was the first time in his decorated career that his riding had contributed to a fall.

"Only 'til I viewed the replay did I realise how far we'd shifted," Williams said.

“Thankfully Damian Lane and the horse Limestone are okay.

“That’s the responsibility we have as riders and I won’t be appealing.”




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Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing


Posted By: Breeding Above All
Date Posted: 17 Sep 2017 at 9:08am
Should Be 70 meetings for that..


Posted By: djebel
Date Posted: 17 Sep 2017 at 9:50am
Stewards are piss weak. Fancy taking into account the group races he will miss.

They are the biggest blight on racing.

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reductio ad absurdum


Posted By: Sunline
Date Posted: 17 Sep 2017 at 10:38am
No problem with that djebel. You can't compare missing a week in winter with missing a week in spring in terms of punishment and deterrence. You can still be angry about the interference but it doesn't mean the decision wasn't appropriate to consider time of year. Stewards in both states have done that for time immemorial.

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Sunline...simply supreme


Posted By: Shawy38
Date Posted: 17 Sep 2017 at 1:35pm
If anything suspensions should be double in the Carnival races.
make it an extra inventive to do the right thing

Kind of like double demerits when driving over holiday periods


Posted By: djebel
Date Posted: 17 Sep 2017 at 1:43pm
Originally posted by Shawy38 Shawy38 wrote:

If anything suspensions should be double in the Carnival races.
make it an extra inventive to do the right thing

Kind of like double demerits when driving over holiday periods

Handshake

Beer


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reductio ad absurdum


Posted By: mc41
Date Posted: 17 Sep 2017 at 10:06pm
Stewards need to hand out penalties that jocks can accept and not appeal


Posted By: cabosanlucas
Date Posted: 17 Sep 2017 at 11:26pm
Misses the ride on SWR in the moir. Mcevoy gets it.


Posted By: Sunline
Date Posted: 14 Oct 2017 at 5:19pm
Never fails to let me down this bloke.

What a joke of a ride.


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Sunline...simply supreme


Posted By: SHOVHOG
Date Posted: 14 Oct 2017 at 5:20pm
It was a certainty beaten.

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" In gambling the many must lose in order for the few to win"


Posted By: Magnolian Khan
Date Posted: 14 Oct 2017 at 5:20pm
Originally posted by Sunline Sunline wrote:

Never fails to let me down this bloke.

What a joke of a ride.


That is why I don’t back his rides


Posted By: correctweight
Date Posted: 14 Oct 2017 at 5:21pm
When was the last time Vega Magic was restrained in a race? Very disappointing ride.


Posted By: Sir Gov
Date Posted: 14 Oct 2017 at 5:22pm
Syd vs Melb

Stick with Sydney


Posted By: Sunline
Date Posted: 14 Oct 2017 at 5:22pm
Absolute imbecilic ride. All he had to do was back the horse to sustain pressure up top. He restrained him and threw him out of the race.

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Sunline...simply supreme


Posted By: SHOVHOG
Date Posted: 14 Oct 2017 at 5:23pm
He spent 300m trying to restrain it was ludicrous.

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" In gambling the many must lose in order for the few to win"


Posted By: correctweight
Date Posted: 14 Oct 2017 at 5:25pm
Should've just let it run, he would've won.


Posted By: mikey
Date Posted: 16 Oct 2017 at 11:54am
I think Craig will be pretty disappointed himself with the ride. + he cost himself more than the avg punter with his lost percentages from a winning ride. Sometimes I have wondered but I'm sure he was trying hard here.


Posted By: hatch
Date Posted: 16 Oct 2017 at 12:12pm
He is a top jockey ,very good trier , would have been concentrating hard on what to do, made a decision ,if it was right or wrong we will never know .


Posted By: Sunline
Date Posted: 16 Oct 2017 at 12:17pm
Only jockeys and their parents believe in "we'll never know." That said, punters tend to have a crystal ball when it comes to what would have happened if they made the other decision.

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Sunline...simply supreme


Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 16 Oct 2017 at 10:30pm
Originally posted by mikey mikey wrote:

I think Craig will be pretty disappointed himself with the ride. + he cost himself more than the avg punter with his lost percentages from a winning ride. Sometimes I have wondered but I'm sure he was trying hard here.


He didn't have a choice Mikey.   Jumped better than most and the inside speed was quickly obvious. He eased back but never got closer than 3 & 4 out.    6 out on the turn.   Super run.


Posted By: djebel
Date Posted: 17 Oct 2017 at 2:24pm
prick

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reductio ad absurdum


Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 17 Oct 2017 at 2:30pm
Originally posted by djebel djebel wrote:

prick


Luv it ...       ME or Williams or both ...


Posted By: max manewer
Date Posted: 17 Oct 2017 at 2:56pm
You laugh when jockeys get a miracle run through, it is called genius, but when the gaps don't open they are called morons. Similarly, pressed forward, or settled back, if it pans out, it is great judgement. It all evens out in the end. I heard once that a jockey riding the favourite in a Melbourne Cup, pulled it up. He was already a cup-winning jockey. I believe it, my informant was well-connected. That would hurt, if you were the owners. But casually backing horses, you just move on to the next race.


Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 17 Oct 2017 at 3:14pm
Originally posted by max manewer max manewer wrote:

You laugh when jockeys get a miracle run through, it is called genius, but when the gaps don't open they are called morons. Similarly, pressed forward, or settled back, if it pans out, it is great judgement. It all evens out in the end. I heard once that a jockey riding the favourite in a Melbourne Cup, pulled it up. He was already a cup-winning jockey. I believe it, my informant was well-connected. That would hurt, if you were the owners. But casually backing horses, you just move on to the next race.


Craig Williams has had so many knockers recently ,     He will certainly have a big Spring carnival.   never fails.

   It is the worlds greatest certainty = " CYCLICAL "


Posted By: Sunline
Date Posted: 17 Oct 2017 at 3:25pm
Max Manewer, the bit I disagree with re your post, is the damned if you do, damned if you don't when it applies to this example. You will find the majority of Vega Magic backers had him mapping as working hard on speed to find a spot outside Houtzen, or if they went hard enough to hold him out, it would string them out and he could slot into the 1/1. Even orst case scenario he sits 3 side on speed, he had already proven many times he can cope with pressure on speed and there is only one turn at Randwick over 1200m.

No one, in their wildest nightmares, had Williams making the decision to snag back to the point he had only something like 3 horses behind him at the top of the straight. That was a farce and he had one way to ride him and one way only.


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Sunline...simply supreme


Posted By: max manewer
Date Posted: 17 Oct 2017 at 3:42pm
I'm not saying he rode it well, but you have no control over jockeys, beyond electing not to back their mounts. Complaining about jockeys is about as fruitful as a man complaining to his mother-in-law about his wife. It seems to me that many punters back horses they are keen on, despite having strong reservations about the jockey. Then complain about the jockey when it loses. Who is really to blame there ?


Posted By: hatch
Date Posted: 17 Oct 2017 at 3:44pm
The stewards did not disagree with his ride, he was a victim of circumstances.


Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 17 Oct 2017 at 3:52pm
Originally posted by Sunline Sunline wrote:

Max Manewer, the bit I disagree with re your post, is the damned if you do, damned if you don't when it applies to this example. You will find the majority of Vega Magic backers had him mapping as working hard on speed to find a spot outside Houtzen, or if they went hard enough to hold him out, it would string them out and he could slot into the 1/1. Even orst case scenario he sits 3 side on speed, he had already proven many times he can cope with pressure on speed and there is only one turn at Randwick over 1200m.

No one, in their wildest nightmares, had Williams making the decision to snag back to the point he had only something like 3 horses behind him at the top of the straight. That was a farce and he had one way to ride him and one way only.


Very much see your point Sunline .   We will never know for sure . He did jump well and attempted to be up there but the speed inside, had him ease. When their running near course record time in the "fast" lane,What time would Vega Magic have run with the same draw Redzel had.
He did prove one thing.    He's Bluddy good , get on the next few.
One of those races where the barrier draw was crucial.
3 Y/O SWR . had the dream run.( pulled up badly with physical problems & spelled.


Posted By: Hoffy95
Date Posted: 17 Oct 2017 at 3:54pm
Originally posted by hatch hatch wrote:

The stewards did not disagree with his ride, he was a victim of circumstances.

Haha classic. 


Posted By: max manewer
Date Posted: 17 Oct 2017 at 3:56pm
Crying about jockeys is classic loser talk. It is like bemoaning the poor job that Fred the fencing contractor made of your fence, when you already knew his fences go higgledy-piggledy not long after being erected. Of course, there is the possibility that the jockey specially reserves his worst rides for your bets........


Posted By: max manewer
Date Posted: 17 Oct 2017 at 3:58pm
I agree with Sunline that easing off when wide at the 1200m Randwick isn't needed, there being only the one reasonably gentle turn.


Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 17 Oct 2017 at 4:29pm
Originally posted by max manewer max manewer wrote:

I agree with Sunline that easing off when wide at the 1200m Randwick isn't needed, there being only the one reasonably gentle turn.

No turn is gentle when your 4-6 wide Max.   Especially with the rail out 6m.


Posted By: max manewer
Date Posted: 17 Oct 2017 at 4:38pm

There is little barrier or on-pace bias at that start these days.


Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 17 Oct 2017 at 4:55pm
Originally posted by max manewer max manewer wrote:


There is little barrier or on-pace bias at that start these days.


I'm relying on a failing memory , but the last horse I saw win from well back in Randwick sprints were on heavy ground.


Posted By: max manewer
Date Posted: 17 Oct 2017 at 5:02pm
When you look at the stats for horses that press on from wide draws, you see it is far preferable to easing.
SETTLING POSITION     % RETURN (SP)
1-4                             110

5-8                               84

9-12                             70

13+                               60


Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 17 Oct 2017 at 5:10pm
Originally posted by max manewer max manewer wrote:

When you look at the stats for horses that press on from wide draws, you see it is far preferable to easing.
SETTLING POSITION     % RETURN (SP)
1-4                             110

5-8                               84

9-12                             70

13+                               60


Good stats Max.. That supports the on pace debate .
Shame for the Everest fav. that connections weren't aware, apparently .
Brownie points for Sunline's argument.


Posted By: max manewer
Date Posted: 17 Oct 2017 at 5:15pm
Certainly applies over most sprint courses, but curiously not so much at the Randwick 1200, where being in the top 4 in the run from wide, yields only average results.


Posted By: max manewer
Date Posted: 17 Oct 2017 at 5:27pm
If Redzel stays home, or gets a migraine going around to the start, Vega Magic romps in, and Craig has ridden a blinder. You can over-analyse these things.


Posted By: Donald Hiltonson
Date Posted: 17 Oct 2017 at 5:27pm
Originally posted by max manewer max manewer wrote:

When you look at the stats for horses that press on from wide draws, you see it is far preferable to easing.
SETTLING POSITION     % RETURN (SP)
1-4                             110

5-8                               84

9-12                             70

13+                               60


Where do those stats refer to horses pressing forward from a wide draw?

And what are stats for horses pushing forward to ride outside of Redzel? Probably not very good I reckon if anyone’s tried it


Posted By: max manewer
Date Posted: 17 Oct 2017 at 5:36pm
Those are just some numbers I have cobbled together, They are pretty accurate, but of limited utility, as guessing where they finish up in the run in a very inexact science, to say the least. But it does show that pressing on is a better plan, by and large. Depending on the sectionals of course, but you don't know what they will carve out before the jump either. Maybe the smarter jocks know it is more the percentage play, but you don't know what instructions they have been given,that might over-ride their natural inclination.


Posted By: Donald Hiltonson
Date Posted: 17 Oct 2017 at 5:42pm
But the stats don’t tell you what barrier they came from. For all we know from those stats the strike rate of horses pushing forward from a wide barrier might be zero. The stats don’t say otherwise


Posted By: max manewer
Date Posted: 17 Oct 2017 at 5:46pm
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by max manewer max manewer wrote:


There is little barrier or on-pace bias at that start these days.


I'm relying on a failing memory , but the last horse I saw win from well back in Randwick sprints were on heavy ground.

Yes, not a great deal of advantage to be forward in the run there, on the wet, by the looks. Other places, generally still better up front. Getting clods in the face can't make them go forward !


Posted By: max manewer
Date Posted: 17 Oct 2017 at 5:49pm
Originally posted by Donald Hiltonson Donald Hiltonson wrote:

But the stats don’t tell you what barrier they came from. For all we know from those stats the strike rate of horses pushing forward from a wide barrier might be zero. The stats don’t say otherwise

I did say wide draws. I think it was either 10 or 11 outwards. But if you back one out there, and even it has a history of going forward, probably still a coin toss what they will decide to do, on the day.



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