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Long Range Weather Forecast

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Topic: Long Range Weather Forecast
Posted By: Gay3
Subject: Long Range Weather Forecast
Date Posted: 26 Nov 2015 at 12:19pm
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EL nino update...the El niño is now mature and is in the process of beginning its decline. I have been saying for a long time that this would repeat 2009/10, and not have the effect it normally would have on Australias climate. A big feature of El ninos is warmth, lots of it, and less humidity. So far, only the Top End has behaved in a fashion synonymous with traditional El ninos. The rest of the country has seen great November rainfall, albeit scattered thunderstorms events rather widespread rain.

In this post i will present my thoughts for the next few years. As most of you know i think the response to the current El nino is going to be extreme. So first off, current SSTs. You can see the warmer water stacked along the equator in the Pacific. And now the El nino is weakening that warmer water is moving this way. This warmth will become the cornerstone of the next few years wet spell, and will park itself against the Philippines, and move into the Indian Ocean as well. When i look at that graphic, i see an amazing amount of warmth, which i think we will pay for in the next few years.

As i touched on last week, the Southern Oscillation Index has rocketed back up, which it has never done in November in strong El Ninos. This means the atmosphere is now decoupled from the Sea surface, and the demise is all but on. In other words, you need the atmosphere to compliment the SSTs and turn westerly...they are not. Easterly trades are beginning to strengthen, and will bring the warm water this way.

CFS now sees it, look at its forecast in the 3rd pic, it crashes the temps into LA Nina range by late winter. JAMSTEC also noted in their latest outlook that the La nina is on. I expect this to be another massive 2 or 3 year La nina, and all the warmth we see now in the global temps will just be a small blip.

Speaking of which, here is the Mutlivariate ENSO Index, in pic 4. This is a fantastic graphic, LA Ninas are in blue, and El Ninos in red. Notice though, that there were a lot more LA Ninas up until 1976, and many more El ninos up until 2007. Thats because of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO. When the PDO is warm we have longer and stronger El ninos, and when its cold the opposite thing happens.

Well, it happens that since 2007 we are into our cold PDO cycle. Its my opinion that we are in the same stage as the late 1950s, and the next 15 years we will dominated by massive La ninas. This has global implications temperature wise, after this El nino warming i think we will see a huge plunge in global temps for at least 3 to 5 years. If you look at the next pic you can clearly see the step changes with every El nino...warming, dropping, then warming more and dropping less, warming more and dropping less.

But look since 2007, in the next pic...a definite step change, where La Ninas drop the temps, they bounce up, and with every LA nina they drop lower. I expect the next drop after this spike to be brutal. Europe and the entire Northern Hemisphere will be plunged into the coldest temps in decades, even colder than the record cold of 2010.

So in summary. This El nino has peaked, and a breakdown with widespread rain and floods can be expected in the coming months. La Nina conditions will begin in the Spring of 2016, and last until 2018 at least. Global temps are spiking now and should stay elevated until April 2016. Then a huge correction will occur and temps will crash until at least 2019. This will take us to 23 years with no warming on Earth if it occurs.

Enjoy, hope you liked the detailed post, many more to come!

These mean nothing to me but I'm sure others are more meteorologically literate than I Wink wouldn't be hard.

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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!



Replies:
Posted By: Fiddlesticks
Date Posted: 26 Nov 2015 at 12:52pm
El Nino looks like a very hot pussy...LOL


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Panspermia.


Posted By: AndiCap
Date Posted: 26 Nov 2015 at 12:58pm
ROLF!


Posted By: max manewer
Date Posted: 26 Nov 2015 at 1:22pm
You blokes need to paddle up the Orinoco to the Ayahuasca jungle, urgently !


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 04 Feb 2016 at 8:59am
We need all the help we can get in the quest to find winners & these reports just may help with 'futures', planning holidays etc. Smile


https://www.facebook.com/A.V.Weather/posts/930607410368682" rel="nofollow - https://www.facebook.com/A.V.Weather/posts/930607410368682

Good evening all, time for an El nino update, this is going to be a big update but will be worth it.

I know a lot of people have messaged about the next 12 months, i have been bullish on a La Nina, and a big one, since last year. The pattern is fairly easy to read if you can see the finer details. On this occasion though, its been blatantly obvious about the huge flip the climate is currently about to perform. Both the global temps and the sea surface temps (SSTs) are about to dramatically decrease.

We have now gone 4 years since the last record breaking La Nina. Since then we had 2 failed attempts, near misses in fact, at an El nino, and then this year we had a strong one, stronger than i had forecast. The effect though for an El nino as strong as this one was weak. We had a few months of heat and dry weather but on the whole the climate had already begun its shift.

So first, current SSTs. Notice the warmest water is now right in the middle of the Pacific, this is a good indicator that the Easterly trades are starting to pick up again. And as they do, they push the warm water towards Australia. And as they do that, the Convergence Zone in the tropics moves West towards Australia.

Anyhow, all the models now see the La nina firmly developing in the winter. the strength is really all that matters, but it must be noted that between February and April the ENSO forecasts are at their lowest confidence. That said, here is the consensus forecast from most of the models from the International research Institute.

Almost all put us into a healthy LA nina by years end, some outliers still but this will change after Easter once the Equinox comes around. So lets compare this event to this time in 2010, when the El nino was almost done in pic 3. There are two things to note here, first the cold water was already developing off the coast of South America, currently we still have warm water there. And secondly there is lot more warm water across the globe atm.

So, the warmth is the Earths mechanism of releasing heat out of the Oceans. So the global temperatures spike during an El nino, and then fall when there is a La nina. the 4th pic shows there Super El nino of 1998, and you can see there was more cold than this year. So my point is, once this LA nina comes on, there is much more cooling that will happen because all of the warm water will cool.

So expect a huge plunge in global temps, and a massive effect on the Northern Hemisphere temps. In 2010, records were smashed everywhere as temps plunged to record cold. This may go close to being even lower, so enjoy the warmth whilst it is here, especially in the NH. So in a year we can revisit this and see how much colder the waters are globally, and it will be massive.

So to summarise, La nina is going to come on in the Winter, and peak in January and February, and last 2 years. Given the heat we have seen released this last 12 months, i cannot rule out a 3 year La nina, or a 2 year one, a neutral year, then another 2 year La nina. So its going to be on big time.

Next, look at the MultiVariate ENSO Index (MEI) in pic 5. This picture tells a thousand words. So to explain, the blue is La Nina, the red is El nino. So, notice the first section with the blue arrow, thats the cold phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or the cold PDO for short. Every 20 - 30 year the pacific flips. From 1975 to 2007 we were in a warm PDO. Since 2007, we have been in a cold PDO.

So if you look closely, during the cold PDO La ninas dominate, and in warm PDO El Ninos dominate. there are always swings but its predominately one way or the other. For example, in a cold PDO La Ninas average 21 months in duration, El Ninos last 8 months on average. In a warm PDO, its the exact opposite. Take a look at the period 1960 - 65. Its quite possible that where we are at in the cycle, and given this El nino was big i think thats exactly what will occur.

As for locally, here is a great graph that shows what an El nino means for Australia. This is pic 6, its Canadian rainfall forecast for March. So, El nines move the lower pressure west so all the rain ends up in the Pacific. Higher pressures over Australia so rainfall is suppressed. This pic is the perfect blue print for El nino effects on Australia. Note though its having little effect anywhere else, but you get the picture. Now watch this.

Here is the Canadians forecast of rainfall for December. As you can see, an enormous shift in rainfall patterns for Australia. There is another thing to consider too, the warmth in the pacific gets pushed East across the Top of Australia and ends up in the Indian Ocean as it goes through a current called the Indonesian Throughflow. So we may see even more warmth in the Indian Ocean this winter, so expect a lot of rainfall in the Winter and Spring right across the country.

So, my forecast is for a La Nina, and a big one, and huge global temperature drop lasting 4 or so years. Models see the La Nina coming on now so we will watch with interest and see what unfolds.

Hope everyone enjoyed this long winded post, its good news though as rainfall is about to increase substantially.


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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 04 Feb 2016 at 8:59am
A.V.Weather
2 hrs ·

Morning all, quick update. I posted a few days ago about a decent dry spell, and i also mentioned that the pattern will evolve in such a way that the activity off the East coast would push west and would see a big ECL or cyclone develop.

As it happens, EC is onto it first and has two cyclones forecast late next week in 8 days time. Here they are in the picture. So whilst two cyclones is unlikely, it indicates the models are going to play this one out exactly as i had indicated, by bringing in huge Easterly surge to the East Coast, resulting in widespread flooding to most of QLD.

So anyone in coastal QLD should take note, the pattern is setting up for a sustained barrage over the coming months. And from this, the highs will slowly sink further South and that moisture will work its way South and provide rainfall for most Southern states as well.

So whilst we are in a dry spell in the South for the next week or so, it won't be long before things start to light up again. In fact we are possibly looking at a 2 to 3 week spell of humid unsettled and rainy conditions again from the middle of Feb onwards.

So its looking like my thoughts are right. Lets hope this translates into good rainfall for those who need it through the interior, and hope that the floods that come are not as bad as they could be.


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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: Tlazolteotl
Date Posted: 04 Feb 2016 at 10:57am
I can remember when Melbourne had heaps of wet tracks and Sydney didn't. Or maybe that was just a dream. It was all so long ago- I can't remember clearly.Confused


Posted By: Fiddlesticks
Date Posted: 04 Feb 2016 at 11:16am
Melbourne has always suffered it's own long term inferiority complex, being the distant runner up to glorious Sydney can't be good for your self esteem can it, particularly when foreigners talk about Australia they think of how much they'd like to see Sydney, the Opera House, the bridge, the fireworks on new year, the harbor and all the boats, yeah nah..they don't think of the Yarra or Port Phillip plod bay...:facepalm:




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Panspermia.


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 08 Feb 2016 at 10:06am
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Good evening all, not much happening and been super busy with work. That said, its not going to take as long as one would think for things to change. And i think its going to change in a big way, and the first one is we will see the possibility of breaking some humidity records in the next month or two.

Lets start by looking at the water vapour, as we know there has been a huge clearing out of moisture into the Pacific. But, look at the current satellite photo and you still see convection developing in the afternoon right across a fair amount of the country. Right from the East coast, up through central Australia and into WA.

This is because the low levels are moist, and the upper levels are dry. So the heating creates convection, and you get lift until it hits the dry slot. Soon enough, troughs form and storms will start developing again through the interior. Also of note is the action off the QLD coast is still heading west across the Top End.

Which brings me to SSTs surrounding Australia, which is truly astonishing. This is the 3rd picture. How long before this situation comes home to roost? Look at 2010 in the 4th pic of the global SSTs. This is even warmer, so once the wind turns Easterly again next week there is going to be an extraordinary amount of moisture in the lower levels streaming across the country.

All it will take is one cold pool through the form of a mid level trough and its going to be on in a massive way. In the last pic you can see models already sensing what will happen, Precipitable Water values increase down the Eastern Seaboard, and start feeding in from the NE. And significantly, the NW starts to get active as the monsoon trough thinks about firing up again.

The first cyclones will be dragged SE but i think the next waves won't be, this sort of heating in the oceans around us can only mean one thing. It will mean once this ridge breaks its going to light up in a huge way, probably in 10 days time. Again, QLD side will cop it and then it will feed inland.

So get ready fro some extreme humidity over the coming weeks. And enjoy the dry spell, it won't last.



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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: acacia alba
Date Posted: 09 Feb 2016 at 1:34am
We havnt had a dry spell for weeks,  or even months,  now.  Every couple of days it rains, and keeps on raining.  Ever since the April 2015 floods, we have rarely gone a week without rain .  Some of it heavy enough to cause flooding , altho not as bad .  
Last Friday there was 220ml in 24 hours in the headwaters , but we only had about 57 here.
The bit about the humidity is right tho.   Holy dooley its been so bad its like living in the tropics. 


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animals before people.


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 09 Feb 2016 at 8:06pm
I don't think you'll be getting much respite any time soon acacia LOL

A.V.Weather
1 hr · Coldstream ·

Good evening all, time for an update on the Coral Sea cyclone activity. The BOM still believe that conditions are unfavourable however EC tonight is making it more intense. As you can see in the first pic there are two areas of development to be watched.

However, tonight EC hangs it around instead of dragging it SE. The furthest cyclone drags Se but the one closest to QLD does a loop and is right back hugging the QLD coast next week, as you can see in the second pic.

By this point something will give. The high pressure ridge in the bight moves through and allowed another shift, looking troughy through the interior, and bringing the moisture in. Heres the PW chart in the 3rd pic, and you can see the big infeed of moisture coming down the East coast as i hinted last night.

Were are at standstill but this is going to yield one way or the other soon enough. I still believe a huge push from the Pacific is on its way in the coming weeks. I may be wrong with the timing but i won't be wrong with the overall pattern, usually you will get a massive Rossby wave once the El Nino breaks down and they come from the East. And given the heat in the oceans off our coastline its not going to be long before this Westward motion is on our doorstep.

On another note, Water vapour in pic 4 still shows a dry atmosphere as a whole. But in pic 5 on the true visual, you can see that there is a lot of afternoon convection through much of the inland down the Eastern half. So its showing that the lower and mid levels are still moist owing to the Se flow, so whats going to happen here is that this moisture will continue to build so when a trough develops in the next few days thunderstorms are likely to explode through the inland.

Of course, models show none of it and keep us dry for the next 10 days, time will tell but these are good signs that things are building, so watch this space.

I've just asked him: I see Elders predict a VERY dry Mar/Apr/May & wet June for Vic Western district, any thoughts on this at this stage i.e. head on chopping block?

A.V.Weather
Yep, I don't buy it at all

https://www.facebook.com/A.V.Weather/?rc=p" rel="nofollow - A.V.Weather And our Autumn breaks are usually big...so i can't see how it won't be big given the suppressed monsoon

In response to a stirrer:

https://www.facebook.com/A.V.Weather/?rc=p" rel="nofollow - A.V.Weather For starters i run my own strawberry farm business, and second of all I'm talking about a big pattern shift globally thats about to bring sustained rain over many months. Im happy to put my balls on the line and see if I'm right, because thats how i see it. I won't be the first or the last to get it wrong, its the weather after all.
< title="Attach a Photo" name="" ="_n" accept="" ="">
https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100010489148859&fref=ufi&rc=p" rel="nofollow - Mark Gillies Yeah, that upper trough isn't going to be as nasty as first thought. Hopefully in the longer term 2-3 weeks the QLD coast will be bombarded by cyclone moving there way inland and resulting fronts picking the left overs and giving SE Australia a lot of rain.



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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 10 Feb 2016 at 8:10pm
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Good evening all, nice warm and sunny spell rolls on. As i said last night we won't have to wait long, the response is coming.

We will start again with EC showing 2 cyclones/tropical lows out in the Coral Sea. Again, it wants to take it SE as this is the normal directional flow. and as i keep saying, models are starting to see what I'm seeing..a big push from the Pacific. In 7 days it meanders the cyclone around and weakens it then starts to move it back towards the QLD coast, as you can see in pic 2.

In the 3rd pic is Precipitable Water for Tuesday. You can clearly see the low moisture being pushed onto the QLD coast, a low has developed south of Victoria, more on that tomorrow, and another burst of moisture is beginning to manifest itself down the NW WA coast.

So once the low passes Victoria and into the Tasman, what happens next is fairly easy to see. A big burst comes from the East in the tropics, and the high is now starting to push West past the WA coastline. i have indicated this in the 4th pic, this is part of what i like to see here, as when the La nina is on this is where the high pressure is likely to go, allowing Low pressure to hang around the mainland.

And look at PW for the same time, day 10. Now we are talking, models now beginning to see it. Big infeed from the East, big infeed from the NW, the highs down South and West, allowing it to happen. So this is what i have been saying may happen for the last week, whether it does or not in 10 days is irrelevant, its going to happen.

Somewhere along the line this exact scenario will occur, and when it does it will get very wet. Hopefully its sooner rather than later but as always time will tell.

I will update again tomorrow including the cold front and low for Victoria for the late weekend.



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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: Fiddlesticks
Date Posted: 11 Feb 2016 at 9:39am
is this BROOKE doing these forecasts..???




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Panspermia.


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 11 Feb 2016 at 10:36am
I've just re-edited the Feb 9 post & can't imagine BROOKE farming strawberries, she's too busy working on the HOLY Grail of punting Wink

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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 12 Feb 2016 at 11:56am
https://www.facebook.com/A.V.Weather/" rel="nofollow - A.V.Weather  
https://www.facebook.com/A.V.Weather/posts/934667553296001" rel="nofollow - - - 14 hrs ·

Good evening all. Well, despite the forecast of zero rain for almost 95% of the country, things didn't take long to change today. A low pressure trough has formed over the NSW region and delivered huge thunderstorms mainly into the Act this afternoon.

And here is how it happened. Moisture has been building as i have shown over the last few days, and a nice indeed has has also founds its way in from the Indian ocean. Add to that the air was quite cold as it came from the South then when it hit the hot dry air and converged with the South Easterly winds it exploded.

So as i suggested days ago troughs would form and storms would develop it has done exactly this. And its going to keep doing this over the next week or so before a bigger event sets up. Nothing has changed with the rest of the sequence, a cold front and low will pass to the South of Victoria on Monday and Tuesday, given SSTs are very much warmer than normal we could see productive totals along the Victorian coastline.

Here it is in the second pic, with the cyclone not moving anywhere either. But then its after that that things get cracking, another round of instability will come for at least a couple of weeks, and bring extreme humidity to most states. By next weekend here is the pattern in pic 3. High anchored west of Perth, tropical moisture starting to stream in from the NW and NE, troughs firing over the interior, and a low/cyclone that is intent on coming this way from the East.

The PW chart in pic 4 shows that its going to be humid, and with cold air lurking we run the risk of another massive event taking place. For the moment models dont see it and have little rainfall, however they are setting up the pattern and i think in the next few days things will look drastically different. Just a matter of lining up however the moisture is continuing to build so when it does line up rainfall is likely to be big.



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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: Fiddlesticks
Date Posted: 12 Feb 2016 at 4:28pm
what happened to the supposed rain for everywhere else...??

it was isolated on the ACT for a brief time and that's it....?




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Panspermia.


Posted By: Go Flash Go
Date Posted: 21 Feb 2016 at 9:07pm
Was hoping Summer had been early this year for Victoria as makes for more comfortable Autumn racing not to mention work,
 
so far so good - Saturday was excellent  Smile


Posted By: AndiCap
Date Posted: 25 Feb 2016 at 11:38am
Bloody HOT innit-


Posted By: oneonesit
Date Posted: 25 Feb 2016 at 1:23pm
Only because of the temperature Andi !!

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Refer ALP Election Promises


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 25 Feb 2016 at 8:24pm
https://www.facebook.com/A.V.Weather/

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added https://www.facebook.com/A.V.Weather/posts/942085295887560" rel="nofollow - 4 new photos .
https://www.facebook.com/A.V.Weather/posts/942085295887560" rel="nofollow - - - 39 mins ·

Good evening all, well now thats done and dusted and we got no rain its time to look ahead to the next significant weather. And its looking like a big, sustained barrage coming up for March. We have had a lot of humidity building up for no reward for most of the summer, but thats about to change.

Im going to quickly discuss current situation and a couple of maps before i show you something really interesting. First pic is the Precipitable Water, a measure of moisture available, the brown being dry air and the green and yellow being the moist air. The red and purple, thats the nuclear air that brings floods.

Anyhow, the moisture is really building again across the tropics, normally with a failed monsoon like this we see a huge March and April in the tropics, and this year won't be much different. So we benefit, because all this moisture has to go somewhere and its usually South.

By late next week, the entire country is almost devoid of dry air, so we could be looking at a ticking time bomb scenario given the mass of brown, cold dry air moving up out of Antarctica that you can see in pic 2. If these manage to calling as they most certainly will at some point, then we will see records tumble most likely.

Nothing specific is setting up yet but its only a matter of time before it does. For the meantime, there is a lot of trough action kicking off late next week down the East coast to keep an eye on.

Part of the bigger picture, however, is the El nino and how its driving our weather. Here is the current situation with the SSTs. The warmth is in the Pacific, but also around Australia. usually warm water promotes low pressure over Australia, and that explains a bit why the Wa region is very active with troughs firing all summer.

So the blue circle is the warmest water of the two, that is the peak of the heat in the oceans. So one has to have low pressure and one has to have higher pressure, so the weather has no choice to put the higher pressure over Australia as the water is colder here compared to the equatorial pacific.

So if you look at the pressure maps, the anomalies show higher than normal over Australia, and lower than normal in the Pacific. This acts to disrupt the trade winds, and puts a lot of upper ridges over the country. So pic 3 is now. And you can see the red colour centred over us.

So when it flips, it will be savage. So i present the GFS forecast in 14 days time. And look at the difference, its huge. First off, pressure lowers massively here, in Asia, and the westerly belt become active with multiple fronts and trough becoming activated South of us. Also, high pressure has now developed off the coast of South America, so things are going to start shifting quickly in the next few weeks.

So this, the MJO coming back, and the general seasonal shift all point to a wet March, subscribers would know with the seasonal outlook that March was the focus month. First week will be fairly benign but things get cranking late next week into the weekend.



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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 28 Feb 2016 at 8:09am
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https://www.facebook.com/A.V.Weather/posts/943603442402412" rel="nofollow - - - 2 hrs ·

Good morning all, things definitely now moving, all the models now put us into a trough and wet period next week. As i said last week the first week in march will be predominately dry...after that its game on. Subscribers were given the heads up in the weekly update and models have had a big shift in the last 24 hours.

So in pic 1 and 2, the pattern has shifted and you can see the troughs developing on both sides of the country by Wednesday. You can see moisture in the first pic and the pressure pattern in the second pic. So whats happening here is the upper high is losing its grip and troughs are beginning to deepen.

And then, by the end of next weekend the flood gates open, moisture piles in to the centre of the country and into the trough and its goes berserk. Remember pic 3? I showed you this a couple of days back. Well, pic 4 shows that this is exactly what is likely to happen..

A huge monsoonal surge comes down and hooks into the trough, and rainfall becomes extreme. The pattern should be slow moving, so totals will be big. Pic 5 shows what that look like rainfall wise, and its very heavy rainfall. EC has the same (pic 6) but puts its over Victoria. So as we get closer we can knuckle down where this is likely to develop and end up.

Rainfall forecast is in pic 7, if this comes off will be a huge event, so models now see the shift is occurring that i have been talking about. So we will wait and see but i think its looking very promising for a massive few weeks of rainfall over a wide area.



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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: Go Flash Go
Date Posted: 28 Feb 2016 at 9:51pm
This is starting to sound familiar as from the times we used to talk weather and cyclones from those storm tracker posters.
 
Anyway another Saturday with no harsh weather next week's a bit dicey Thumbs Up


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2016 at 10:27am
Surely temp. records will be smashed for March? Not enjoying this extended Summer one bit but looks like relief's in sight, at long last Big smile

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Good morning all, things still looking good. It appears we will see two sections to this current set up. Some instability through NSW and Victoria over the coming 7 days, whilst a huge rain bearing systems builds over Southern WA. The upper ridge is intact still over NSW but will slowly be eroded.

So we will start with PW for the next Tuesday. generally a good spread of moisture and models now starting to spread scattered showers and thunderstorms through Vic, NSW and SA. In pic 2 we see the pressure pattern that GFS has forecast, and you can see things look more active now as moisture is well spread through a lot of the country.

The good news is that EC and CMC are also bringing in more troughy weather over the weekend. In pic 3 CMC hangs the moisture out further West however begins to feed it in towards the Lower SE of SA and coastal Vic. So the signs are a bit more positive this morning that we won't have to wait two weeks for something, we may start to see scattered activity this weekend, and generally increasing early next week.

In 8 days time things get moving (pic 4), the high has positioned itself beautifully to give the country a huge Easterly surge of moisture, allowing a trough to set up over Southern NSW and Victoria. Meanwhile, a big system brews in WA and SA.

So by the time the weekend comes in 10 days time we have a good set up taking place. Pic 4 and 5 shows the pattern and moisture, notice the cold air in the last pic coming up, it will be interesting to see of this occurs. This could be the start of a big widespread event in two weeks setting up.

As for rainfall, GFS has this (pic 6) for the next 10 days. Which is quite active when comparing to the other models, i think the main action will be next weekend when all that moisture in WA gets here finally.

And this is why, in pic 7 by next Friday humidity at 700 is extremely high over most of the country, but its not the whole story, if the lower levels are dry you get mostly virgo when it rains. In pic 8 you can see the 850 HPA moisture which is 5,000 feet roughly is also saturated so this means any rains will be decent with shower snap storms.

So to summarize, the system is still on, this is still looking to be a wet sequence over the next 2 to 3 weeks. For the next 7 days we will see heavy rains through inland WA and Western SA, and scattered showers and thunderstorms through Vic and NSW, with totals being fairly light. By this time next week the trough deepens and totals get a bit heavier and the big system out west will track East and finally reach Victoria and NSW by the weekend or there abouts.

Given the amount of moisture available here when it finally sets up properly some places are going to get huge totals for March, i'm hoping it spreads it out for everyone. So its a slow build up but it will be worth it when its all done.

I will update again this evening, have a great day.



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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: Fiddlesticks
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2016 at 10:39am
Yesterday the 1st of March is always my fav day of the year, it signals to me the furthest point away from next summer...


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Panspermia.


Posted By: Tlazolteotl
Date Posted: 02 Mar 2016 at 10:49am
Originally posted by Fiddlesticks Fiddlesticks wrote:

Yesterday the 1st of March is always my fav day of the year, it signals to me the furthest point away from next summer...

March is summer and has been for decades in my book.Angry




Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 06 Mar 2016 at 9:49am
https://www.facebook.com/A.V.Weather/
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https://www.facebook.com/A.V.Weather/posts/947471332015623" rel="nofollow - - - 3 hrs ·

Good morning all, what a lovely Sunday morning it is. When you work everyday its just another day really. But it any case its very humid, so we are primed for a huge month.

Models have now seemingly agreed on the path this will take. As i said last night, SA will be the big winners here which is great news for the Outback areas. We will see rain there for the next week on and off. For Vic and Southern NSW, it will be unsettled all week, we may see a small break Wednesday and then a bigger burst into the weekend which was always the target.

So, the best thing to do is show the Canadian model this morning as it demonstrates clearly how good of a set up is taking place. Pic 1, is tomorrow, showing the moisture out near Eucla still with the upper low. But notice the arrow, moisture will be shooting off to the SE through Southern Victoria so this is why we will see an unsettled week here.

In pic 2 the trajectory changes the high relaxes and the moistures moves in from the NW of Adelaide. this is Tuesday, and when this area cashes in, remembering the upper low will almost be stationary. By the time Thursday rolls around in the 3rd pic, the moisture is now piling up, the high pressure ridge is under Tassie and colder air is starting to emerge from the SW.

So in the next 5 days the system is almost stagnant, so you can see SA will be getting lots of rain. In pic 4 next Saturday morning, the high pressure ridge is still under us with the SE dip, and moisture starts to focus over Victoria and Southern NSW. This is likely to be the time when these areas do best.

The 5th picture takes us to next Monday morning, 7 days away and nothing has changed. The country is still flooded with moisture
and rain will be continuing. In pic 6 its at the end of the forecast period and shows much the same. Notice though the amount of moisture building across the Top End, if this starts feeding down with no resolve to the pattern then it really is going to be on.

So when we look at rainfall in pic 7 , you can see the model now increases rainfall greatly, especially over SA. And a deluge with a monsoonal burst over the tropics i mentioned a couple of weeks back, and is likely to go right into the months of May and June.

And the only way this set up is likely to stop is for my grand plan that i sent out in the weekly forecasts : a cut off low to form over SE Australia. At some point colder air will move up from the South and hit this moisture and a widespread, massive event occurs and we all go home happy.

On the weekly forecasts i had the week just before Easter and around Easter time for this to occur, its still on but i will update the weeklies on Tuesday and send them out. For my South Australian subscribers, rainfall likely to be heavier if you in Central SA.

Will update again tonight, have a great Sunday and let me know when you get rain if you are lucky enough!

Subscriptions to weekly updates for your area are free, you only need to PM your email & postcode Smile

They're very detailed & come as pdf docs.



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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 06 Mar 2016 at 12:38pm
After our highly paid professor of Climate Change  ( professor Flannery ) told us some years ago it would never rain again .      I have done the form as fast or good tracks only.
    Done the arz but that's not the point .        He was wrong like all these other goats who can't accept everything in life is cyclical.
 
  Half the population were out buying candles some years ago .      remember when we were to go into permanent darkness at midnight .             These people like Flannery don't ever admit error or madness.       They just change the wording to justify.


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 06 Mar 2016 at 8:39pm
https://www.facebook.com/A.V.Weather/" rel="nofollow - A.V.Weather added https://www.facebook.com/A.V.Weather/posts/947697511993005" rel="nofollow - 6 new photos .
https://www.facebook.com/A.V.Weather/posts/947697511993005" rel="nofollow - - - 1 hr ·

Good evening all, things heating up, literally. A great deal of energy is being unleashed at the moment and the shift has meant its our turn to cash in.

First off, Mackay radar. Its off its chops with a stationary trough delivering a deluge there. About 250mm has fallen in the Mackay region over the last few days, and more to come as it will hang around for a couple of days yet.

Pic 2 and 3 shows current pressure pattern and Precipitable Water.
Notice the high in the Tasman pumping the Easterlies, driving the moisture west. Unfortunately, still an upper ridge over NSW but will get to that later.

Pic 4 shows current Sat photo, everything is slow moving so falls are generally quite high through South Australia. Notice because its slow moving, further moisture is feeding in from the Indian ocean to enhance the rainfall in a couple of days.

So if we move through to Thursday in pic 5, its almost beyond belief when we see the dew points forecasted to be this high right down the guts of the country. So all the pieces of the puzzle are coming together. I think heavy falls are likely over 50mm through much of SA bar the SE districts.

And now, for further confirmation of a big shift, the EC has finally relented tonight and relaxed the ridge in pic 6. This is for next weekend, and if you look closely you can see the moisture creeping South in the Tasman Sea. This will be a critical move for our NSW friends.

If pic 6 comes off next weekend as the EC has here, or something close to it, then my forecast of a big cut off low and NSW rain will come. So dont despair my NSW friends, there is hope this may break sooner rather than later. I will be keeping a close eye on it.

As always, let me know the good news if you get any rain, the shift is on and its looking wetter every day. I will update again tomorrow, have a great night.



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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: Go Flash Go
Date Posted: 06 Mar 2016 at 8:57pm
Next Saturday looks crap, humid is not a good day at the races especially at Flemington no what the temperature.
 
Hoping for the sea breeze  Smile


Posted By: Go Flash Go
Date Posted: 06 Mar 2016 at 8:58pm
* no matter = goodnights' a must Wink


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 13 Mar 2016 at 6:23pm
https://www.facebook.com/A.V.Weather/" rel="nofollow - A.V.Weather added https://www.facebook.com/A.V.Weather/posts/951343408295082" rel="nofollow - 4 new photos .
https://www.facebook.com/A.V.Weather/posts/951343408295082" rel="nofollow - - 1 hr ·

Good afternoon everyone, hopefully everyone has received their weekly updates. If i have sent you the wrong one please let me know, and i have somehow managed to forget you also please let me know.

Fantastic rainfall through South Australia continues. There he been some enormous falls through most of it, if you have missed out it has simply been because you have been unlucky. Generally though SA has seen amazing rainfall. So we have gone from a theory i had in the middle of February to it actually happening.

So what happens next? Well subscribers will get the very best and latest developments in the Seasonal outlooks that will be mailed out around the 20th of March. So today I'm going to cover the El Nino situation and what it means for the coming months.

So as we know i have been big on El nino breaking down, and the moisture beginning to return to Australia as the Easterly trades pick up again as the coming La Nina gets ready to begin.

Sea Surface temperatures in pic 1 have to seen to be believed, they show that we are primed for a massive increase in rainfall during winter and Spring. In fact, i have never seen the Indian Ocean be in this position set for the coming Indian monsoon and Austral winter.

In 2010, the negative IOD produced in part what see in pic 2, widespread falls at record levels through much of Southern and Eastern Australia, owing to the huge amount of higher then normal moisture streaming in from the Indian. And if we compare the 2010 sea surface temp anomalies in pic 3, we will see that there was no where near the warmth we are currently seeing building up in the Indian.

So those who saw my seasonal outlook and wondered why June was at decile 10, this is why. Also, the warm water currently in the Pacific and heading West will end up in the Indian as it passes across the top end and into the Indonesian Throughflow current. However given the record heat already there its really won't make much difference.

So in pic 4, the CFS model now see this monstrous rain that is coming for the winter. Between the La Nina and the negative IOD i think we will see at the very least the same record rainfall we saw in 2010 across most of the country, and if this stays this warm then we may even see even more rain than 2010 which i know is hard to believe.

All in all we are about to be unleashed upon by the weather as it responds the El Nino we have just had in devastating fashion. At the moment i think we will see widespread flooding through the winter and Spring, and i will be keeping an eye on this to see if it plays out this way. It would take a big shift from here not to happen.

So that's how i see it, which is good news for farmers sick of the drought, as i said i will cover it in detail in the outlooks i send. Later this evening i will post about current events.

https://www.facebook.com/A.V.Weather/?rc=p" rel="nofollow - A.V.Weather Should see 20mm over the next 10 days for most to the state
https://www.facebook.com/#" rel="nofollow - "}" class="UFILikeLink - https://www.facebook.com/A.V.Weather/posts/951698021592954?comment_id=951702198259203&comment_tracking=%7Btn%3AR0%7D" rel="nofollow - -
https://www.facebook.com/joe.boisen?fref=ufi&rc=p" rel="nofollow - Joe Boisen Is anything indicating decent rain (meaning 25-50mm)for central vic in near future?
https://www.facebook.com/#" rel="nofollow - https://www.facebook.com/A.V.Weather/posts/951698021592954?comment_id=951739138255509&comment_tracking=%7Btn%3AR1%7D" rel="nofollow - -
https://www.facebook.com/A.V.Weather/?rc=p" rel="nofollow - A.V.Weather Yes I think a really big cold shot is coming within a fortnight. This is likely to be a seasonal shift and a a big one. Snows down to very low levels will be possible should the system eventuate.


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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: Fiddlesticks
Date Posted: 13 Mar 2016 at 6:53pm
Will be a wet week in Sydney this week, rain everyday from Tuesday...a wet slipper looms..


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Panspermia.


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 15 Mar 2016 at 4:59pm
Some encouraging validation posts:

  https://www.facebook.com/shannonb85?fref=ufi&rc=p" rel="nofollow - Shannon Beveridge Can I just say, I've done numerous tv docos on Melbourne and Australian weather, I have travelled to America to chase tornadoes, far north Australia for cyclones and across lots of southern and eastern Australia for storms but you sir, your posts are incredible. Very accurate and detailed. Please keep up the awesome work as I follow every post!!! Thank you!


https://www.facebook.com/A.V.Weather/?rc=p" rel="nofollow - A.V.Weather That's very kind of you Shannon thanks. The aim is to not only show people what coming before anyone even thinks about it, when it does happen you can go back 3 weeks and verify what I said would occur did occur. Then people know I'm not crazy and have a handle on what's going on. Plus I love it of course lol.


https://www.facebook.com/kevin.game?fref=ufi&rc=p" rel="nofollow - Kevin Game Bega currently receiving the rain you forecast 3 weeks ago. My 80ha of wheat and ryegrass I put in on your say so is jumping out the ground. Awesome keep up the good work.

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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 15 Mar 2016 at 8:26pm
https://www.facebook.com/A.V.Weather/" rel="nofollow - A.V.Weather added https://www.facebook.com/A.V.Weather/posts/952649358164487" rel="nofollow - 7 new photos .
https://www.facebook.com/A.V.Weather/posts/952649358164487" rel="nofollow - - - 31 mins ·

Good evening all, things are moving now and all of a sudden the front on Friday for Victoria looks ominously strong. So looking at current moisture content with the PW chart in pic 1, not much has changed. Plenty of moisture still lingering and i keep saying if it lingers long enough then it finally lines up when cold air moves up.

In pic 2 i want to look at water vapour, except this time i am using the wide view. What going to happen here is the front is moving up from Antarctica, and notice how much water vapour it has available, and its going to interact with all the moisture feeding down form the Indian ocean.

So WA in the South will see decent falls initially, and then the front will rocket East to be in Victoria Thursday night. So in pic 3 you can see how the moisture hooks up with the fronting is forced East. This forcing is likely to result in heavy rain and thunderstorms for Victoria and Southern NSW. Falls of up to 50mm are possible so this system is now going to be the best front we have had this year.

So after that on the weekend what happens next is fairly predictable and a sign that things have shifted. Pic 4 shows the moisture forced up into QLD, and simply does a U turn and heads South to hook up with the next system. So yet again, inland SA sees even more rain next week.

And as we get to Thursday before Easter, things start to line up. Those who receive the emails know that Easter was the target for the "big" one, the cut off low to bring a massive widespread event before the next fine spell. Well its trying its best to happen, pic 5 shows the Precipitable Water increasing again and an upper trough moving in through SA.

Now in pic 6, the pressure pattern shows that its primed, whether or not it plays out like this remains to be seen but lets run through it. A big blocking low in the Tasman, moisture feeding in from WA through SA into Victoria, and cold air moving up from the SW to meet it.

A long way out yes, but models are starting to see the cold air interaction and are starting to look for the big one. If it isn't this one, we continue to see unsettled stormy weather through the interior until it does set up.

And just to finish off with, pic 7 shows the current warmer than normal water to our North and NW are off the charts. Its impossible to not imagine a straifing of biblical proportions in the coming weeks and months. There will be more about that in the next outlook, which will be mailed out on the weekend.



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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: acacia alba
Date Posted: 16 Mar 2016 at 12:16am
Well, we have had our break thru weather.
After weeks of horrible hot, and humid , weather we copped a hammering yesterday about 4.30.  Then we lost power for 4 hours. 
Massive storms,  rain,  wind,  floods under the doors,  and gutters couldnt cope so kitchen flooded.
No one local forecast that !!



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animals before people.


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 17 Mar 2016 at 8:30pm
Whoo-hoo Big smile we might finally get more than a couple of mls out of this, can but hope anyway as it's looking more promising than for several months (Ballarat area).

https://www.facebook.com/A.V.Weather/" rel="nofollow - A.V.Weather added https://www.facebook.com/A.V.Weather/posts/954057761356980" rel="nofollow - 2 new photos .
https://www.facebook.com/A.V.Weather/posts/954057761356980" rel="nofollow - - - Just now ·

Good evening all, well the dynamic situation has now charged full steam ahead and is on our doorstep. Severe thunderstorms are still exploding in Eastern SA, and will move into Vic later this evening.

Current Adelaide radar shows huge thunderstorms going off with the pre frontal trough, the front still well SW as indicated. So this is just only beginning, it looks like the North of Vic and the East of SA will get much more than models were thinking. And as you can imagine with dew points around 16 for the last 2 weeks across 3 states, it is absolutely primed.

Current enhanced infrared satellite shows the size of the storm band currently moving into the SE of SA, this is very heavy rain so it won't take long to rack up 20 - 30mm with the storms. It looks like the peak will be in central victoria tomorrow morning, by then the front will have caught up to the moisture so it will only enhance the rainfall.

Getting reports of good falls through SA this evening with 30mm in Kimba, and I'm sure by the time this is done there should be many more that will bring joy to many people. Stay safe and will give everyone an update early am, things should be wild in Melbourne by then!




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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 16 Apr 2016 at 11:06am
Excerpts from http://avweather.net" rel="nofollow - http://avweather.net

Now on to something quite extreme, Scripps released there April Forecast for the ENSO, which means El Nino Southern Oscillation.

To make it simpler, the forecast of whether it is El Nino or La Nina. And what I saw was frightening.

Here we have the diagrams of each month for the pacific, and already by June July August the colder water has appeared.

The last diagram for March April May Next year is off its head completely, and hard to believe.

By August September October, Scripps is forecasting the Nino 3.4 region to be -2.02 degrees below normal.

That alone puts us into almost record territory, and barely into the early Spring, which is mind blowing, that a shift could occur that severely.

So one one wonders what we will see if Scripps is anywhere near right and we see -3.45 In December January February!

This is unheard of. The implications globally for something of this magnitude should not be understated.

If this were to come off we would see global temperatures plunge so hard that every trough around the globe becomes super charged.

Northern Hemisphere growing season will be shortened by a lot. Australia will be decimated with floods of biblical proportions.

                                                              -----------------------

And now the rainfall is extreme. And the peak Nino value will be -1.50 according to Jamstec.

So Scripps has -3.45, which is likely an exaggeration, but what if it isn’t?

That is what everyone needs to ask themselves, how strong and how severe will this climate response be?

If Scripps is anywhere near ball park then we have a problem.

Thats my job, I will forecast it as we get closer.

So the Outlook is for wetter conditions coming on, no doubt about it. And it is going to be biased to the wet side.

This dry is on its last legs, get ready for the switch because potentially it is going to be savage.

                                                                     -----------------------------

To summarize, prepare now for wetter conditions, we are likely to see a wet period coming up, then a break through the winter, then the stage is set for a dramatic increase through the Spring.

If the dry winter does eventuate, we could see one of our wettest Springs on record. I will refine all this as we get closer, of course.

So thats where that all sits, I will obviously update you all the time as things unfold.



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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: Beliskner
Date Posted: 16 Apr 2016 at 3:29pm
We have a wetter and cooler summer every few years, nothing to see here.


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 20 Apr 2016 at 10:19pm
I urge anyone with an interest in the climate for the next 6mths to take a peek at Anthonys' extensive site & predictions within, while it's free for 3 days

A.V.Weather
18 mins ·

Good evening all, I have made some changes to the products and services page. As some of you have only recently joined I am going to add a free trial, where you can view the site for 3 days and decide if you like what you see.

After 3 days you will have to register a package to continue to view the members only information. You can register here, at the products and services page.

http://www.avweather.net/products-and-services/" rel="nofollow - http://www.avweather.net/products-and-services/


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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 02 May 2016 at 9:14pm
Evening Update May 2nd 2016

Tomorrows front can also be seen there and that will skirt the SA and Victorian coast tomorrow, totals below 5 mm can be expected.

Then we move onto the real action, the follow up system everyone is waiting for.

Its looking like it will be on. I haven’t seen any change in positioning so far, every run, models just play around with timing and rainfall but not the set up.

The EC is really bullish, here is the set up it sees for Friday into Saturday.

Two things to note here, first off is that the EC has always had the cold air moving up South of WA, and I mentioned in last nights update that it has to come up through here for the hook up to have any chance of being a rain delivering one.

Second, this is deep, cold air so expect this to be ferocious yet again. Somehow, most people didn’t see what would occur on Saturday, I posted on FB at mid afternoon that significant and severe weather was on the cards.

I don’t think this set up will be a lot different at this early stage. Here is what the moisture looks like:

ecmwf_pwat_slp_australia_19



Its almost a a carbon copy of the last two runs that I have posted.  So there isn’t too much in the way of this happening.

The good news is the cold air for is just back far enough that it will do this by Saturday.

ecmwf_pwat_slp_australia_23

So now we see moisture finally get into SA, but again will depend on the cold air hanging back and coming up near WA. By Sunday night it has kicked on into NSW.

This moisture looks much deeper to me. I like this set up a lot. QLD and NSW would see substantial falls if this comes off like this.

So if we look at what that looks like on the pressure map, it is telling.

ecmwf_slp_precip_australia_25 (1)

And why is it telling? Because the pressure has shifted, this system intensifies as it enters NSW, rather than be eroded by dry air.

This has developed into a big system, so lets hope that the EC is on the money here.

As for rainfall, the EC will put a smile on a lot of faces.

ecmwf_tprecip_australia_41 (11)

So its going for good rain in South Australia, finally. It was only a matter of when enough cold air came up at the right time, and this could be it.

Victoria, Tasmania, NSW and QLD all see a months worth of rain, on top of what we have already seen.

After this system a dry spell could be on the cards, the EC brings a lot of dry air behind it and parks it over the country.

But we will see what happens with this.

And if we look to why this is, well there is nothing more stark than the pressure anomaly maps. Here is the map for Friday.

gfs_mslp_sig_globe_20 (1)


I suppose you guys probably get sick of me showing this! But its the very reason that things have flipped.

Higher pressure now centres in the Pacific, and lower pressure over Australia. And that means there will a big burst of Easterly trade winds by the weekend.

We will check on Friday and see if I am right, and this will inject even more moisture into the country, feeding into the system moving across the country.

So the follow up is definitely on, all that is left is to see who and where sees the most rain, and what sort of set up we are likely to see.





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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 14 May 2016 at 9:42pm

Daily Update, May 14th.

Posted on https://avweather.net/daily-update-may-14th/" rel="nofollow - Posted in https://avweather.net/category/premium/" rel="nofollow - Premium , https://avweather.net/category/silver-member/" rel="nofollow - Silver Member

Todays Update : GFS joins the party, rain imminent.

Good afternoon all, an early update today as I will be busy this evening.

Forecast are also updated early as well. Things are quickly transitioning now, it was only 24 hours ago that we were looking the moisture in the Indian Ocean, and the uopper low just off the coast, and what it may decide to do.

Models weakened the low out to nothing, and I mentioned we would revisit it to see what would happen.

Well, it did something far different as I expected.

Here is the water vapour.

auswide_wv_latest (54)

So the upper low is still off the coast of NW WA, and moisture is now feeding into WA and SA.

Also, the other two regions in the Indian have both commenced sending moisture SE, so its not going to take long for models to start seeing that troughs are going to start developing nearby.

And if we look at the actual satellite, a low pressure trough is developing through WA.

auswide_truevis_latest

And you will notice that the region that this infeed is coming from is further North than it has been for a year.

So this means the move is underway, and widespread rain is now imminent in the coming weeks.

All of a sudden, the GFS sees it and jumps on the upper trough train that CMC and EC have been on for a couple of days.

gfs_z500a_ausnz_26

For next Friday, it puts the upper trough right where the others see it, over WA.

And then, its gone even further than the other models, and really brings in low pressure through the mid levels by day 10.

gfs_z500a_ausnz_41

Not only does it have an upper low both sides of the country, including the really big one out in the Tasman, it brings in a domination of upper troughs, including a severe upper low over Victoria.

So this has done a full circle, and agrees we are about to see a huge nationwide rain event. So now we just have to see it unfold, and the only question is do we see it spread from the West, or develop in QLD, or do both.

I think it may well do both, there is simply too much low pressure around for there not to be. Given this upper scenario also involves a surface trough we could see some flooding rains in the second week from now.

We know the surface trough will be around, add the upper trough to the equation as this suggests, and then it becomes like a T-Rex on steroids.

So the GFS has joined the party, just hasn’t put together rainfall totals yet.

We are still looking at the 10 – 14 day timeframe. But its coming, and the weekly forecasts that I updated this morning reflect this.

So enjoy the dry spell, I have a feeling it wont be lasting very long.

Tomorrow morning I will be working on the Seasonal outlooks, so there wont be a weather update, unless I see something major happening.

So that is it for this update, have a great night and see you back here tomorrow.

Post navigation

https://avweather.net/evening-update-may-13th/" rel="nofollow - Evening Update, May 13th


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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 17 May 2016 at 10:33pm

Tonights Update : A tectonic shift is underway.

Good evening all, hope you all had a wonderful day. My ears are still ringing. Took his kids to the Zoo!!)

But I learnt a lot today, for example I learnt how the Lord Howe Island stick insect was thought to be extinct.

A ship ran aground off the coast of the island in 1918, and rats ran amok on the island and ate them all.

As luck would have it, some of them made it 23 km away to Balls Pyramid, and survived.

From there, they have been bought to the Zoo and now breed at roughly 1000 per female, per year. Amazing.

So, just like in weather, you learn something new everyday. Today I also learnt that a massive shift is not only underway, but on our doorstep.

Im not sure i have ever seen the charts look so bullish for a pounding of biblical proportions, which is scary because I have seen every chart for the last 30 years.

More on this later. First, you guessed it, water vapour.

auswide_wv_latest (58)

Not only is moisture feeding in, another mid level trough is forming over Northern SA. Get used to this, it is going to be happening a lot.

Notice also the surface trough off the QLD coast, it has decided it want sot move in from the East as well.

And also some showers over the NT, someone should email Weatherzone and tell them! ( in case you missed it, their news feed said in April 10 no more rain until October! )

On to the Sat photo.

auswide_irenh1_latest (13)

Nice trough, and it will be dropping rain soon, our radar coverage is so pathetic i cant be sure, but to me this looks enough to produce showers.

And into NSW as well, so when I update the forecasts tonight it will say the chance of showers right into the NW slopes.

Tonight will tell, overnight is where these things make a move. I haven’t checked but I imagine the BOM have no rain and sunny, as ACCESS has not seen it as of now when I just checked it.

So we will see by the morning what happens here. Tonight we will look at the EC. As I have already mentioned it is the worlds best model, the trick is to know when it sees something big.

Today is that day, and now we will see if it comes off.  Here is the upper charts at 500 mb for Sunday, it shows it well.

ecmwf_z500a_ausnz_21

As I mentioned last night, all Im looking for is if this Long Wave can advance enough to move through SA, and into Vic and NSW.

So looking above, this is outrageous, and this sort of scenario will likely spawn the biggest thunderstorms the Pilbara would have seen in years.

And notice behind the trough line I have marked, the ridiculously low pressures down to Antarctica. This is setting up for a huge run of troughs to pound Southern Australia.

At the same time, two troughs will set up in North, one on each coast, simply because the upper ridges have no support from the Sea Surface temps.

So by mid next week, I fully expect to see a big move happening. The EC has this pattern occurring.

ecmwf_slp_precip_australia_40

The trough over NSW was the first wave that likely runs into the ridge and doesn’t deliver much. The second trough over Vic is much the same.

The 3 rd trough, if it positions itself there, will deliver so much rain through the interior that you wont believe it.

This is poised to deliver a huge event, as for the first time in nearly a year we see low pressure, infeed from the indian, and no ridge.

Just to confirm, here is the charts at 500 mb.

ecmwf_z500a_ausnz_40

The ridge is almost non existent, and lower pressure will dominate. There is nothing to stop this huge event coming in.

It is simply now a matter of when, and where, and this is the very reason I have decile 10s for most of the country for June.

Add to this, the moisture content, we haven’t really looked at precipitable Water for the last couple of weeks.

But check this out.

ecmwf_pwat_slp_australia_41 (3)

You can see whats happening here, we have the perfect storm. Surface low, upper trough, and high moisture content.

And not only that, values of 50 mm are about to be dragged into the interior by the west coast trough.

If this lines up just like this, this puts 200 – 300 mm of rain through WA, this is a record breaking system should it happen

This is the tectonic shift that the climate is about to deliver to us, all we need to know is where and when.

So that where we are at, things are certainly about to get hectic. At this stage, I think 20 mm makes into the Eyre Peninsula mid next week.

Also, the trough is a bit weaker in the East over the Pacific, so a trough will develop over inland QLD and NSW too, so we may see some activity develop there in 7 days or so.

EC at this point doesn’t deliver to much rain with this set up, but I think it certainly is going too.

Thanks for all the wonderful comments and emails today, I will respond to them all shortly.



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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: Go Flash Go
Date Posted: 17 May 2016 at 11:05pm
Shocked really ? l can't add up what this adds up to (at this time of night) but pictures like that must add up to something l guess ... keep 'em rolling when you can Gay (thanks for) Smile


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 23 May 2016 at 9:00pm
Don't worry Flash, me either but I'm trying to learn & it's easy to pick out the meaningful stuff in between the graphs Wink
Going to be way above average within the next 2 - 3 weeks is the gist of this one which makes me wonder about Eagle Farm whenever they start using it Confused

Evening Update, May 23rd.

Posted on https://avweather.net/evening-update-may-23rd/" rel="nofollow - Posted in https://avweather.net/category/premium/" rel="nofollow - Premium

Tonights Update : Could it be? Or is it a false dawn?

Good evening all, not much to talk about tonight, models are all holding firm with absolutely no changes.

So I decided to go on a hunt. An Easter Egg hunt? A fox hunt perhaps? Nope. I go hunting for the big one!

More about that shortly, first lets look at the water vapour and see how our system looks.

auswide_wv_latest

The trough that was left over in the centre of Australia will link up with the front and move into NSW.

Also, the upper ridge over the Indian Ocean is being eroded, you can tell it has lost its colour as moisture starts to erode it in the lower levels.

And the driest air is exiting out through QLD, and this is now starting to push this upper trough off shore.

This sequence of events makes me think that things are setting up quickly.

So, when looking at the 500 mb charts it makes for very interesting reading.

Here is the EC for Friday.

ecmwf_z500a_ausnz_19

EC brings in a nice strong upper low into the Lower SE of SA, and I feel if there is an upgrade to be had, it is here.

Importantly it goes through the Riverland and Mallee districts, so this could be a little sting in the tail if it goes through there.

Which brings onto the hunt, had a very good look today, and have come to the conclusion we are now within 14 days of a huge event unfolding.

Unless something changes drastically, I’m sold on what is unfolding here.

First, here is EC in 10 days time.

ecmwf_slp_precip_australia_41

I know we covered this a bit last night, but this has enormous potential.

This ties in with what I showed this morning, the Easterly trades are about 10 days away from developing low pressure on our doorstep.

So it seems logical that a surface trough develops here on the QLD and NSW coast.

GFS actually has this in this mornings run but bigger, so my instincts could be right here.

Now look at the charts at 500 mb level.

ecmwf_z500a_ausnz_40

 

Is that not amazing, it has eroded all of the high pressure in the Pacific and developed a huge upper low over QLD.

Add the surface trough with tons of moisture and all of a sudden things looks dynamic.

I had a look at GFS, and what do you know.

gfs_z500a_ausnz_41

It does the same thing, ridge to the South, trough over QLD.

So now the models have put together all the pieces as I have explained in the last two days that were happening.

Should this come off, it will be a truly mammoth event. I would prefer it to be further North but beggars cant be choosers with the weather.

And this is why it is important to have someone who can show you these things weeks before they unfold.

If you look at the weekly forecasts, in week 3 I had this similar scenario coming on.

I see these things and then just work out the timing of them.

So I think we are now in the set up stage of this, whilst the Southern states enjoy rain a much bigger event is establishing itself in the back ground.

To simplify it, QLD is at record temperatures at the moment, and as soon as low pressure enters this region the amount of extra energy that will be available to use is going to be immeasurable.

This has huge implications for massive rainfall and why I have been saying a biblical event is unfolding.

The only part of the equation that is unknown is the moisture, how much of an infeed will get into QLD to feed this upper trough?

Thats where you need to get a bit closer time wise, because all these fronts are shooting up cold dry air into the interior.

Just as an aside, here are the global temps for this month.

ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom

You can see we have much warmer than normal temps focussed mostly in QLD. So here is what I like to do, and this will amaze some of you but this is what i have been doing every day for ther last 15 years.

I go hunting. And I always have comparable analogs I like to find, and then see how they marry up. So watch this.

Here is 2007.

ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_052007

Pretty similar yes? Almost a carbon copy I would say, we came out of the El Nino and in May 2007 the La Nina was building.

What is the relevance for now I hear you say? Well, here is what happened in June of 2007.

June 2007 rainfall

As you can see, big rains developed through Northern Australia. Now, if you look back at the temperature in the top corner of that 2007 chart, its 0.28 C above normal.

May 2016, we are at 0.435 C above normal. We have an enormous amount of extra heat available, and that means we have much more extra moisture floating around the globe in the tropics.

So when the big one comes, we cash in, and given this, I expect it to be double what you see here and more widespread.

This is just a little sample of the lengths I go to, to ensure the whole picture is seen and utilised.

I think I may have mentioned when I started that you will be amazed with what you see here, whilst others are busy posting photos of floods on FB Im working on giving you the why, the how, the where and the when.

Even to this day I still go back and try and find correlations in the 1950s, you can never stop learning in this caper.

The only issue is the data pre 1979 is skewed due to the bullgelati global warming agenda, however there some data points that cant be adjusted and that is a good thing.

And I will get it wrong at times, make no mistake about it, thankfully these mistakes will be small.

And because I work so closely with you guys, I can tell you quickly if something isn’t working.

At this point in time, everything is going perfectly for June for a huge month.

So to summarise, no changes to this week, I am happy how it looks, and we could possibly get a slight upgrade for Friday.

So that is another comprehensive post tonight detailing all the things I am looking at, any questions, please put them in the comments and I will answer them there.

I will have another update in the morning, have a great night, and see you then.

 






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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: Go Flash Go
Date Posted: 23 May 2016 at 11:00pm
Thumbs Up am learning not to worry too much Gay (started working on it when l was Twenty expect to "get it" when l'm about 150)
 
Anyway it's good to plan a bit he/she seems to be doing wet form for the weather Wink 
 
2-3 weeks to see if that cataclysmic wet eventuates ....
 


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 30 May 2016 at 8:19pm
He's nothing if not honest LOL (What on Earth does this expression really mean? Confused)

Tonights Update : Models are all over the place, time to use instinct.

Good evening all, well I thought we had started to settle down on a scenario but clearly models see things differently.

Tonight they all over the shop, focussing on different systems and basically all off on individual tangents.

So the best thing to do is throw them all out the window, and start forecasting what I can see.

The very curious thing is though, the only model to have any consistency at all is the Canadian.

The problem is, it is forecasting a huge event. So, its really hard to know which way this will go, but it is not budging.

Anyway, lets look at what we know. Here is the latest satellite.

aus_irenh1_latest (1)

Loving the look of this mid level trough here that has developed over Central Australia, it is receiving multiple in feeds of moisture.

And finally, it looks like Central QLD and the Emerald region will some good rains over the course of the next 5 days.

This trough will train over the region slowly and continue to develop, as the much colder air form the South feeds into this system slowly.

Here is a look at the latest water vapour.

auswide_wv_latest (2)

I don’t think models are up to speed with this yet, and I think we will see rain from this into QLD, and possibly even Northern NSW over the next few days.

As for the bigger system late week and into the weekend, only the Canadian hasn’t budged.

cmc_precip_mslp_aus_19

Despite the fact it gets active out East, it holds it line and slides down the coast into Victoria. It has not budged from this, the other two are all over the shop.

So given the consistency, we cannot dismiss this from happening. And when you will see the rainfall, you will see why its hard to believe.

Here is the vorticity that CMC has.

cmc_z500_uv_vort_aus_21

CMC really brings the heat as far as instability goes, it ramps things right up tonight.

Funnily enough GFS and EC are very similar with vorticity but do not translate it into the higher rainfall that CMC does.

Here is the Canadian rainfall forecast.

cmc_total_precip_aus_41 (2)

On the surface, you can look at this and think, yep, over doing it. And i agree it is likely to be overdoing it.

But given the vorticity and 500mb charts its not all that over the top, and we know this model loves cold air scenarios.

So its definitely been the most consistent this system, so for the moment I am inclined to go with this model.

That’s a sure fire way of getting burnt, as the CFS model has done to me before as well!

But it looks logical, it sees the cold air early, and maximises rainfall. I think its over doing it, so I would halve these totals.

I think widespread 30 mm through NSW, rather than the 50 – 100 mm falls it has here.

Either way, this will be a good producer for NSW, with good follow to come for South Australia, Victoria, and WA.

Western Australia should benefit from the AAO being negative, as fronts barrage the SW corner of the state.

This should continue in the coming weeks for there, before the pattern shifts and the focus becomes Eastern Australia.

So thats about it for now, things are wildly all over the place and as clear as mud. NSW however still looking good for good rain.




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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 31 May 2016 at 9:17pm
Another update in case it helps anyone on the punting front Smile

Tonight Update : So much is happening, even the models are confused!

Good evening all, well not much has changed since last night, models are all over the shop.

The last few runs they have flirted with the idea that the event may not even happen, but they are coming to their senses now and realizing a lot of cold air is moving in, and that things are about to get really active.

And in some other good news, its starting to rain over the Central Highlands of QLD, and they should see light rain for another 36 hours, and more on the weekend.

So, lets look at what we have going on, because there is a lot, water vapour as always takes pole position.

auswide_wv_latest (3)

Lower pressure is starting to take over, and you can see the dry air has almost completely been eroded.

The blob of tropical convection is getting closer to the NW coast, and by next week I think it will start to in feed into the next frontal system, enhancing rainfall.

Also, lots of cold air to the SW of WA that is laden with moisture, so that will also enhance rainfall as it moves up.

An of course the inland trough is kicking along nicely now.

Here is the satellite photo.

auswide_irenh1_latest (3)

Its fair to say that we have turned full circle from barely 5 weeks ago.

We now have Low pressure troughs at all levels developing at will.

South of Adelaide, we have a stationary upper low, and that extends a trough up into Northern SA.

We have the mid level trough over Inland QLD, we have the infeed from the Indian, and we have another upper trough moving into Perth.

On top of all that, we have a surface trough just wedged into the Southern NSW coast.

So there is so much going on here its really is no wonder that models cannot settle on what will happen here.

Luckily, I know what will happen, its going to be on like Donkey Kong, thats what!

We are going to see non stop frontal activity, lots of cold air and troughs through the inland deliver lots of rain.

Thats the simple conclusion. How that happens is the mystery, but thats what the end result is.

The one thing that is lacking somewhat is moisture however, the active cold air means drier air.

In any case, here is what the EC brings to the table tonight.

And for the record, all of the models bring in the upper trough into NSW and end up something like this.

ecmwf_z500a_ausnz_16

The upper low is back right where it had originally put it, so this looks like a good thing NSW, with the rain wrapping in over the top.

Its what happens after this point that is all over the place, but given the size of the upper trough that out past WA, its fairly obvious that another big system will be closely following this one.

EC quickly brings in another upper low, this time through Adelaide, and moves it NE as well.

ecmwf_z500a_ausnz_24

And then this is where it gets interesting, because we may see a blocking set up happen here, and this upper low will have nowhere to go.

And alarm bells go off straight away, as most flood events happen due to this very scenario.

So the second system has a lot of potential here, I think we are in for avery wet period for NSW and Southern QLD.

And as you can see, yet another upper trough moves up towards WA, standing up nice and tall as well.

So if we don’t see a blocking set up, this will move in and see yet another system. So we are looking at 2 big systems, and maybe 3, in the next 10 days.

So here are the the rainfalls, vastly different, we will go with EC first.

ecmwf_tprecip_australia_41 (3)

EC has the focus out East, but still has the good falls in Central and Eastern NSW.

It also starts bringing in the Indian Ocean infeed for the next system, I will keep an eye on this as it will affect SA and Victoria late in the period.

Here is the GFS.

gfs_tprecip_aus2_41

On the surface you would think they look fairly similar, and they sort of are.

Believe me, the synoptics are miles apart!! But nonetheless, an in feed late into a big system is also on the cards here.

And then the Canadian.

cmc_total_precip_aus_40

So they are all similar, they just arrive at the conclusion differently, and they all favour a move from the Indian late in the period, around mid next week,

So I think that may be the focus as it is likely to be a widespread event. This upcoming event to me looks like it will be confined to NSW and QLD.

Interestingly, EC keeps Southern Vic dry until late in the period. I agree as we will be trapped in the downslide of the both Lows as they move into NSW.

SA also will be largely dry at this point until mid next week, the secondary system on Sunday into Monday might produce 5 – 10 mm however I will need to see where the secondary upper trough enters the state late in the weekend.

So its all happening, things are evolving so quickly now as the climate has now completely shifted around our part of the world.

Just got word, by the way, that Longreach memorial pool had 55mm as well, so when these things are happening, you know that the shift is well and truly here.




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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: Go Flash Go
Date Posted: 05 Jun 2016 at 11:25pm
Pretty much going to script Thumbs Up so get some boots for Flemington next week Wink


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 06 Jun 2016 at 10:00am
I asked him this y'day Flash, not much about for us by the look of it:

It’s looking like no decent system setup for Western Vic. in the foreseeable future then, correct? The Ballarat region is still 3″ under this time last year & 5″ below average. No doubt when it breaks it’ll be a big one lol.

Anthony says:
https://avweather.net/morning-update-june-5th/#comment-1415" rel="nofollow -



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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 01 Aug 2016 at 8:26pm

Tonights Update : The inevitable is indeed on the cards.

Good evening guys, hope you enjoyed the rain today, its been wet! Some great falls around too, especially back on the Eyre Peninsula.

Generally, falls have been between 11 and 20 mm through there up until lunchtime. So its now saturated there as well.

Also, Victoria seeing some great falls this afternoon as well.

So, what did we learn so far with this system? Well, I will enlighten you! We learnt that when I meant Spring was coming early, well here it is.

This system carried much deeper moisture than anything in the last 4 weeks. So from that, you receive heavier rain.

And this was always the plan, I have maintained Spring will be early, so this is now going to ramp up from here.

In some ways it was a blessing the cold air has weakened, as it would have delivered an extreme flood event. In any case, one is just around the corner.

auswide_irenh1_latest (10)

From the satellite photo, the upper trough and cold front has now caught up with the mid level trough, so this will give it a bit of extra kick tomorrow in NSW. and then the process of the Low developing will begin over the North East corner of NSW.

gfs_z500a_ausnz_8

The upper low develops on overnight tomorrow in Southern QLD, and will provide good falls of rain through this region.

But this is just the sideshow, I’m going to show you something I haven’t shown you before. Obviously, I get the full suite of weather information, and only show you guys a portion of the information that I pay for.

But I couldn’t do my job without it, as you need to consider all possibilities. So one of the things that I do get is the 46 day EC Ensemble forecast, showing the 500 mb pattern.

eps_z500_168h_ausnz_1

So this is from today up to day 7, and shows that, on average, there will be more high pressure than low pressure over the country. So if you think about that and the weather we are seeing, alarm bells go off already.

eps_z500_168h_ausnz_4

So when I see something like this, which is the Day 11 – 18 forecast, the mind starts to boggle as to how much rain we are going to get.

And this is the fear going forward, that we are about to see some historic weather to come in the next couple of months.

If you recall the JMA, it also seen something very similar in week 3 and 4 as well, with a lot of lower pressure at 500mb as well starting to dominate.

So the reason I bring this up is because tonight GFS has done something extraordinary in week 2, and this will actually be the really extreme move I have been waiting to see.

gfs_z500a_ausnz_41 (1)

On day 10, all 3 of the models put some low pressure over Victoria, and then start to develop another trough to the SW of WA.

Its fair to say the GFS thinks we are going to see a truly historic event.

gfs_z500a_ausnz_47

By day 11, GFS puts a severe and extremely big upper trough over WA. The scary part is here is what it runs into.

gfs_rh700_ausnz_47

Huge tropical moisture, and this is going to be the big issue going forward. All of our rain events from here on in, are going to subject to massive amounts of moist air.

And you will see in a minute why that is an issue when I show the forecast rainfall.

gfs_z500a_ausnz_57

Now, you should take a photo of this above forecast, because its likely you wont see that repeated again. Thankfully this is 12 or 13 days away, so its likely it wont come off as extreme as this, and if it does, well we are all going to cop a biblical and historic event.

I don’t think I have ever seen anything like this in all my years of forecasting and studying weather, thats how significant this would be.

The good news is, however, that this is all forecast to be in the second week, between days 10 – 14, so chances are that whilst its probably onto it early, something this severe is unlikely, at least for now.

gfs_tprecip_aus2_65 (3)

So if this was to happen, the above rainfall forecast is what we would see, and I think thats fairly self explanatory.

And its only August, and its my opinion that something like is simply inevitable over the next few months. You cannot have low pressure at 500mb start to dominate and not expect scenarios like this to play out.

So I wanted to show you this tonight to be aware that if its possible to take precautions, that something like this is not all that far away, and to take them.

The only positive will be that the Murray Darling Basin will certainly get its fill up and start to rejuvenate.

Anyhow, aside from that, it looks like a good drop for the Tablelands in Northern NSW, as well the whole NE corner generally in the next few days.

 

ecmwf_tprecip_nsw_21

EC now has a lot of rain forecast, some places above 100mm along the coastal regions, as the low winds up there on Wednesday.

So its just generally wet everywhere, and more to come, and will only get worse.



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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: Beliskner
Date Posted: 01 Aug 2016 at 8:54pm
Cliffnotes: It's gonna piss down.


Posted By: Second Chance
Date Posted: 01 Aug 2016 at 8:59pm
Our property is 80% under water atm.  I mean up to 8-10 cm deep in it.  The driveway will almost certainly be impassable come morning so we'll be isolated motoring-wise with structural reinforcement necessary.  

Despite pumping water off tanks for 7-8 hours per day we're still losing ground with the overflow entering the septic system and threatening the integrity of the house foundations.

Other than that we're doing just fine.




Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 01 Aug 2016 at 9:05pm
The land of drought, floods & fires! Not sounding good at all 2nd Chance, with a lot more to come before summer Disapprove Looks like a great grass growing season but harvesting for hay????????????

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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: Second Chance
Date Posted: 01 Aug 2016 at 9:12pm
Cheers Gay.

ps it's been too wet to seed with annual rye, or to spray for broad-leaf, onion grass or dandelion.  So there'll be a heap of growth in the early Spring, little of it helpful.  Ouch

 


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 01 Aug 2016 at 9:41pm
Despite being well above average the last 2 months, I think out water table must have been badly depleted as the lower 1/3 of the property should be calf deep in water rather than the odd small puddle which goes to show how badly the 'new' track is coping compared to the 'old'
We too are unable to spray, particularly as it's done by wagon not tractor & the weeds are sure appreciating it Ouch


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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: Fiddlesticks
Date Posted: 02 Aug 2016 at 11:02am
it's post el nino weather nothing we haven't seen before many times over..




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Panspermia.


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 02 Aug 2016 at 5:42pm
Einstein Shocked I think most of us agree with you but it doesn't tell us what's likely to happen in the next few weeks does it?
A few members live in rural areas & are able to prepare for flooding with some notice.

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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 02 Aug 2016 at 6:12pm
Originally posted by Gay3 Gay3 wrote:

Einstein Shocked I think most of us agree with you but it doesn't tell us what's likely to happen in the next few weeks does it?
A few members live in rural areas & are able to prepare for flooding with some notice.
 
 
 Gay ,   I have 3 sure weather forecasters .     I noted them for you this morning .
 
     The Hedges are shooting early in Brisbane   =      an early spring
 
     My back ( lumber area )     painful and I live alone .   =   Winter hasn't Gone
 
     My Hips & knees ,  The pain in both = terrible   =     =   winter or deterioration
 
            Sumary =       My f-ing hedges are lying


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 02 Aug 2016 at 6:39pm
As long as the fingers & brain are in order, you've little to worry about  LOL Sounds like you're in dire need of some cannabis oil, something mere mortals such as you & I can only dream about obtaining Wink


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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 02 Aug 2016 at 7:00pm
Originally posted by Gay3 Gay3 wrote:

As long as the fingers & brain are in order, you've little to worry about  LOL Sounds like you're in dire need of some cannabis oil, something mere mortals such as you & I can only dream about obtaining Wink
      I'm telling tales out of school now but experimenting with these shady chemicals once has left me with a stiff neck.
    My memory doesn't recall what it actually was but it started with a V.


Posted By: acacia alba
Date Posted: 02 Aug 2016 at 11:00pm
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by Gay3 Gay3 wrote:

As long as the fingers & brain are in order, you've little to worry about  LOL Sounds like you're in dire need of some cannabis oil, something mere mortals such as you & I can only dream about obtaining Wink
      I'm telling tales out of school now but experimenting with these shady chemicals once has left me with a stiff neck.
    My memory doesn't recall what it actually was but it started with a V.

Vitamins maybe Big smile


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animals before people.


Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 03 Aug 2016 at 11:10am
Originally posted by acacia alba acacia alba wrote:

Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by Gay3 Gay3 wrote:

As long as the fingers & brain are in order, you've little to worry about  LOL Sounds like you're in dire need of some cannabis oil, something mere mortals such as you & I can only dream about obtaining Wink
      I'm telling tales out of school now but experimenting with these shady chemicals once has left me with a stiff neck.
    My memory doesn't recall what it actually was but it started with a V.

Vitamins maybe Big smile
                   VIX     it was A>A>


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 16 Aug 2016 at 8:01pm

Evening Update, August 16th.

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Tonights Update : Could the weather ramp up any further?

Good evening all, hope you are all doing well. Remember back a couple of months, I said I would let you all know when the real move happens?

I’m now letting you know. It is on like you would not believe, and the people who had doubts that it was going to turn wetter will now become believers.

Whilst I was in the tractor slashing today, I recalled this.

ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom

If you recall, I showed you this because the El Nino had left a lot of energy in the weather system. And now its about to be utilised, with global temperatures still elevated at 0.39c above normal.

All this extra energy means extra water vapour, in the form of humidity in the atmosphere. Sooner or later, our day of reckoning was always coming.

So for the next few months, mother nature is going to put on a show, and demonstrate quite clearly that it is in charge, and not everyone on Earth driving SUVs or using their air cons.

The blocking pattern was indeed a sign that it wasn’t aligned, and needed some more time. It appears that hurdled has been cleared, so let the fun begin.

 

Before beginning, I will cover the system on Friday briefly, we should see a few mm for the Eyre Peninsula, and then increasing further East.

The trough is likely to tap into moisture near Adelaide, so from there Eastwards falls of 10 – 20 mm are likely, including Victoria and Southern NSW.

auswide_irenh1_latest (25)

If you look at the satellite photo, you can see what I has stated on the 4th of this month has happened, with surface troughs now developing in response to the heat inland.

This is what will be the catalyst for the rain to begin to develop on Thursday over SA, and then further on Friday into Victoria and NSW.

In fact the more i look at this system, the more I think we may get a surprise with how much rain we may get from this.

The front is well back off the coast of WA, over the next 12 hours or so it will develop an upper trough where the arrow is indicating, and then be pushed East.

So from tomorrow onwards I will be focussing on this until its done.

So after this the big system next week looks massive, in fact I believe this will be the biggest August event as far as I can recall. Thats how big it appears to me.

gfs_z500a_ausnz_31

Every day with every run it still gives us this huge upper Low scenario, so this is definitely looking likely to be favourable for much of SA if its positioned where this is shown to be in the above pic.

gfs_z500a_ausnz_34

The scary thing is that the GFS increases this on the Wednesday, the purple colour into Alice Springs indicates that this upper low is going to be particularly severe, so more hail drifts in the streets are likely right across the country as this gets going.

gfs_z500a_ausnz_40 (1)

And as if we need it to intensify even further, the upper low gets stronger once its into NSW on the Thursday, so this is what the GFS sees.

The Canadian also responds now with it seeing what the others are seeing, for the first time its ramped up its rainfall expectations to something a bit more believable.

cmc_total_precip_aus_41 (4)

A lot less organised, but wet nonetheless. And thats because it also feeds in lots of moisture as well, so the set up is now complete, its simply a matter of where this all plays out.

The European model is still off the scale. Here is the upper low, much more extreme than GFS.

ecmwf_z500a_ausnz_31 (1)

This is simply insanity. An upper Low of this is intensity would be hard pressed to be developing in the summer, let alone August. This is the most impressive upper low I have seen in August.

ecmwf_slp_precip_australia_31

Because the upper Low is so severe, the surface low doesn’t take long to develop either. If you look at this chart from the EC, I expect widespread heavy rain and thunderstorms to be occurring on the Southern and Eastern flank of the low where maximum upslide will be.

ecmwf_z500a_ausnz_37 (1)

As we saw this morning, it then tracks into NSW slowly, so expect the storms to follow this low, and I have a feeling the surface Low will move out to sea and the upper low may stay over land, but time will tell.

So to summarise, its going to be epic, as expected. A very period coming up. Speaking of which, here is the current radar for Adelaide.

IDR641

I wouldn’t get too excited as this band will weaken, but given it has survived this far is a good sign for both Friday and next week.

I expect this to break up somewhat as it enters Victoria later tonight, and deliver a few mms at best.



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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: acacia alba
Date Posted: 16 Aug 2016 at 11:06pm
I dont care about Victor Harbour and surrounds !       Whats it going to do in the Hunter Valley this weekend ??
Rain on the parades ??    I dont care if its freezing.   I have my coat I bought for Alaska.   I just dont want it to rain and spoil my photos Cry



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animals before people.


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 17 Aug 2016 at 10:27am
All good acacia, nothing serious 'till about Thurs next week, enjoy your w'end & photography Tongue

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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: acacia alba
Date Posted: 17 Aug 2016 at 2:46pm
Thumbs Up  Thanks.

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animals before people.


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 22 Aug 2016 at 10:36am
This weeks' potential flood scenario averted Big smile

So this next system makes QLD the focus, Southern states will only see some showers and a few mm, although it does remain somewhat unstable.

Even NSW wont see the rain as big as expected, as you can see drier air penetrates right in to 3/4 of the state.

On the weekend, we see a better set up, and for the first time we actually see moisture moving down, rather than feeding in.



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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: Go Flash Go
Date Posted: 22 Aug 2016 at 3:47pm
Most excellent thunderstorm just passing through Melbourne - has put a halt to everything - very good for a Monday Thumbs Up
 
Flash flooding rain even a little hail Thumbs UpThumbs Up


Posted By: acacia alba
Date Posted: 23 Aug 2016 at 1:33am
Today here woke up sad and smokey and miserable.   This afternoon it just dropped to bloody freezing in an hour.   Then it started raining.
Spring is here LOL
Did have a nice weekend tho.


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animals before people.


Posted By: Dr E
Date Posted: 23 Aug 2016 at 2:14am
Where's all that lovely Global Warming gone! Cry

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In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!


Posted By: acacia alba
Date Posted: 23 Aug 2016 at 2:19am
Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

Where's all that lovely Global Warming gone! Cry

Away with the fairies LOL  , just like those who believe in it.



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animals before people.


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 25 Nov 2016 at 8:30am

Today’s Update : The Canadian makes the breakthrough, and senses that something major is brewing.

Good morning all, hope you are all well, up early this morning because I remembered late last night I cant do an update tonight as I will be busy.

I totally forgot of course I had people coming over, so I will update this morning instead. And it works out better, because this morning the Canadian has sensed what is going on.

As I mentioned yesterday, soon enough the models will put 2 and 2 together and come up with 4.

auswide_irenh1_latest

On the satellite photo, the moisture still continues to dominate, and another burst has developed over the Gasgoyne in WA. So its clear to me what is going on, we are being saved by this ridge over Perth, the ridge over troubled waters I referred too a while back in a piece of attempted humour!

But, moisture is relentless, if you cannot get cold air to move up, it just keeps piling on in.

output_mmpwxa

Here is the animation from the Canadian showing the massive amount of moisture that will pile in next weekend and early the following week. Now, yesterday I got messages galore about the BOMs latest outlook, in particular the very high chance of a very dry December with heatwaves.

That will be almost impossible unless we see a complete shift in the pattern, there is simply no way that upper ridges can become established whilst this sort of moisture continues to pile in without any resistance.

Instead, you will see this happen.

output_4abr65

The upper pattern develops because of the moisture, it really has no choice but to do so, and that’s where things light up.

If you look at the pressure pattern, its clear what is going on.

cmc_slp_qpf6_ausnz_41

Normally, the cold air down to the far SW would come up and meet this moisture, and a big low would develop. However, this high is persisting here, so this is why the models don’t have much rain, they think the cold air wont be strong enough to interact with it.

But, I think it will do as indicated in this picture above, the cold air runs around the high and feeds up into this trough the long way around. And now canadian sees that, amplifies the upper trough, and brings rain into the SE of the country.

 

cmc_total_precip_aus_41

So here we see the first model start to realise that you simply cannot sustain so much moisture in the atmosphere without a trough developing, and over the next few days its all going to be about how strong this will be and where.

I am sensing something huge is brewing, and will make a mockery of the BOMs December outlook.

ecmwf_pwat_slp_australia_41

Lastly, the EC also has a ridiculous airmass for next weekend, it has little rainfall because it hasn’t worked out where the cold air will come from, but it will. The Canadian has worked it out, I expect this and GFS to follow over the next few days.

That’s it for this morning, quite good weather for the next week then I think it becomes very active with potentially something big on the cards.



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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: Dr E
Date Posted: 26 Nov 2016 at 12:15am
Suck that all you Global Warming skeptics!!!Censored

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In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 26 Nov 2016 at 7:29am
Snippets from this mornings' post:

I have been getting a lot of messages about the BOMs Seasonal outlook, in particular the hot and dry December they have forecast.

I don’t think I have seen such a savage response to it on social media, it appears to me that now everyone can see what the BOM represent. They are clearly on the take, a co-ordinated left wing organization aimed at producing fear and scare mongering for profit.

Within hours of going to print, every media news outlet was linking the outlook to their websites. Make no mistake, this was a co-ordinated alarmism strike against everyone, as clearly they are all in on the scam together.

In any case, the weather will be the judge, and whilst I think it will be quite hot and dry for periods of December, the notion of an 80% chance of below average rain and heatwaves is absurd and it is abundantly clear why.

To get any sort of heatwaves you need to see very dry air move up into the interior of the country. Whilst this ridge is sitting below WA and into the Bight, the chances of this happening are zero.

As you can see above, instead we see lots of moisture just continue to come in, this is not new, I have banging on about this for many months. And this is where the alarmism comes in, because anyone with half a brain can clearly see this, its obvious.

We saw moisture already feeding down in July from the tropics, we saw Darwin get slaughtered in September, this was always the way this was going to go, so either the BOM is ignorant, or corrupt.

And I think we all know which one. yes, its going to be hot, because its summer. But without the dry air troughs will rule, as they have been now for the last 3 weeks, and will ramp right up.

If the MJO can manage to get into Phase 4 and bring the monsoon trough in, then December will be extremely wet for Eastern Australia.

As it stands, I’m doing the Seasonal Outlooks now and I think at the least we will see average rainfall because I’m just not seeing the cold and dry air needed to form upper high pressure over the country.

Lets look at the European this morning, here is the Precipitable Water animation for next weekend, days 6 – 10.

output_miojhi

So, how do you think this will end up? Dry and hot? Laughable. And without the cold air from the South, this push from the tropics has nothing stopping it.

This is an extreme amount of moisture, if we did get a front to hook up to this, it would break December rainfall records.

To stop this momentum of moisture from the North, we need to see a massive cold front sweep up and drive cold dry air into the tropics.

ecmwf_slp_precip_australia_41

Whilst this ridge sits here, most of the cold air gets driven to NZ. It simply wont be happening, at least for the first half of the month.

So its all setting up for a very active month, as I said there will be dry areas, no doubt, and hot, not doubt.

However, nothing to the scale of the garbage we saw released by the BOM. I expect more than 50% of the country to exceed the December average for rainfall, there you go, there is my forecast, I will be very surprised if it doesn’t.



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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: Beliskner
Date Posted: 26 Nov 2016 at 10:56am
I believe in some level of Climate Change, but what i don't like is how just about every variant of weather is somehow evidence that the scaremongering CC crowd is correct.

The next 7 days in my area is all forecast to be 20c-23c with a sprinkling of rain.

One week obviously means little in the great scheme of things, but it's an interesting start to the summer, considering 15-20 years ago we were being told how the beaches wouldn't be around, and everyday would be 35c+.


Posted By: acacia alba
Date Posted: 26 Nov 2016 at 11:08am
Its been over 30 here all week. One day was 35 and the others have been 32/34,  and not a drop of rain, so summer is here for us.  Only one night cooled down enough to be pleasant to sleep.
Next week is predicted to be hotter.


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animals before people.


Posted By: acacia alba
Date Posted: 19 Dec 2016 at 12:43am
Well !  Its hot as, and wet as, here ATM.
I cant give you all the maps to show that, but trust me,,,,Big smile,,,,


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animals before people.


Posted By: horlicks
Date Posted: 19 Dec 2016 at 2:55pm
If someone wants to criticise the BOM they should get their facts somewhere near the mark.

He carries on about the "lefties"and says that they have taken down the December outlook and put up the January outlook much earlier than normal.

If he had simply looked at the archives where the last several years of outlooks are posted he would have seen that this happens every December.


Posted By: JudgeHolden
Date Posted: 20 Dec 2016 at 7:38am
It's one of the hallmarks of the snake oil salesman, horlicks. Cast aspersions at legitimate products, especially if they're free (even though you yourself use their information) in the hope that the suckers will keep paying for yours.


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 26 Dec 2016 at 7:23pm
BOM & A V Weather have equal access to whatever models & data they choose to use, the interpretation is what matters to people whose livliehood depends on accuracy.
This guy & now 700+ others have decided it's better to speculate a little in order to accumulate:

Aly says:
https://avweather.net/evening-update-december-26th/#comment-6039" rel="nofollow -


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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 12 Jan 2017 at 8:31pm
Oh dear, he's really on an anti BOM tirade tonight, worth a laugh at least LOL His FB post:

Good evening all, hope everyone is well tonight. Lots of weather going on, but nothing near the hype from the corrupt and agenda driven nonsense we have seen from the BOM today.

We will see a standard rain event that will drop around 20 - 40 mm through most of Southern areas of SA, possibly a bit higher back into the NW Pastoral this evening. But nowhere near an event that needs you going to get sandbags, as I saw issued earlier somewhere.

We have gone from the BOMs David Jones saying in 2008 that the new permanent drought is here to stay, to now doing a back flip and saying that we will see more floods and extreme weather only 8 years later because he has been proven incorrect.

So from now on, every rain event is a 1 in 100 year event, just so that you can expect it. What is really pathetic is I explained to clients many months of this occurring, and WHY it would occur, and it has nothing to do with CO2, which makes up 0.004% of the atmosphere, in other words a tiny trace gas.

Anyhow, there is a new weather update tonight for members, detailing the next few weeks and the subtle climatic shift that is underway and what that will mean in the weeks ahead.

I will have another update in the morning on the 1 in 1000 year floods, see you back here then.

And for balance:
https://www.facebook.com/alex.gill.3998?fref=ufi&rc=p" rel="nofollow - Alex Gill You do throw 'biblical ' in there monthly and I'm yet to see an ark lol 🐘

Tonights Update : The BOM have become a special kind of stupid today.

Good evening all, hope you are well this evening. Lots going on, a decent system for SA, but you wouldn’t know it as the BOM are hyping this event up to be a 1 in 10 year event.

It appears every system is biblical, as it fits their agenda driven horse gelati that they spew forth regularly.

This system will deliver a solid rain band, and places may see 50 mm or so, but most places will be in the 30 mm range give or take.

However all this media releases they are doing is just utter nonsense. This is a good rain event with likely little storm activity over land, the coastal regions may see some but not a great deal.

It will also be windy, again nothing that we haven’t seen 7 million times before. And then a media release about where to get sandbags. Completely overdone, and on purpose. This is the same people who 10 years ago said we had better get used to a drying climate.

I think you will all agree that this gelati is getting tiring from them, I have had people messaging all day ready to evacuate houses F.F.S!!

Tomorrow morning at 5 am, the European model has record Precipitable Water forecast over the West coast of SA. There is no disputing this, this airmass will be beyond belief.

However it will lack cooler air in the mid levels, so this will cap rainfall, as will the fact that’s it 5 am and not 5 pm.


Here is the EC forecast rainfall for the next 72 hours, if this is bad enough to issue press releases about where to get sandbags then I’m Lebron James.

The heaviest falls are way out west, as it moves this way it will weaken, so it looks like Victoria can only expect 10 mm or so in the Western parts of the state, and the SE of SA looks similar.

Aside from all this, there isn’t much more to report tonight other than the moisture is going to continue to build and move South after every event.

Jan 20 - 21: And indeed we see a cut off develop over the Victorian and Tasmania regions, this one wont be a big event at this stage but is a great sign that the following week near Australia Day could see a big event.

The EC 10 day rainfall forecast is getting wetter, I think it senses that things are about to move in the coming weeks, all of this moisture that is biblical in nature will eventually result in a huge event, most likely in NSW as well, once that ridge is displaced I expect rainfall in the hundreds of mms if it sets up as I think it will.

So in summary, a good event in SA, nothing near the hype though.


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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: acacia alba
Date Posted: 30 Apr 2017 at 12:59am
Well !!    Thats a blast  !!!  
Beautiful days here , but cold at night.
Snow on The Tops .




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animals before people.


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 15 May 2017 at 7:20pm

AV Weather Takes Off - The Land


Jessie Davies

After providing free weather advice on weather forums and via Facebook since 2001, strawberry farmer Anthony Violi, Coldstream, Victoria, launched AV Weather in 2016. He now has more than 1600 paying subscribers.

After providing free weather advice on weather forums and via Facebook since 2001, strawberry farmer Anthony Violi, Coldstream, Victoria, launched AV Weather in 2016. He now has more than 1600 paying subscribers.

IT’S raining cats and dogs at Coldstream, Victoria, but not in the way you’d expect.

Since making weather forecasting his full time gig, strawberry farmer Anthony Violi has been inundated with new customers seeking location-specific climate information. 

“My client base has doubled since Christmas,” said Mr Violi, owner of AV Weather.

“I now have 1600 subscribers around the country.”

He’s recently hired a casual so he can keep up with the one-on-one messaging and call back service he offers.

Mr Violi began selling subscriptions to his weather forecasts last March after attracting a large group of followers to his weekly weather blog. 

“I’ve since created a level of service which no one else provides.” 

He offers daily updates; four week forecasts and a five month seasonal outlook.

He also pens weekly blog posts focusing on the next fortnight’s weather.

His services range from $20 a month to $45/month.

He said his forecasts are usually closer to the Bureau of Meteorology’s than Elders Weather.

Last year, he said, rival forecasters initially predicted extremely low winter rainfall for NSW, Victoria and South Australia. He forecast the opposite.

“People were asking me if there was any point planting. I said it would definitely be a wet season. All my customers then had their biggest harvest ever.”

In general, long-range forecasting services are falling short, he said. 

“Right now, climate models are showing an El Nino for the end of the year. I’m saying the El Nino won’t happen – instead it will be a ‘warm-neutral’.”

A warm-neutral is where temperatures in the Pacific Ocean don’t reach the threshold required to be called El Nino.

Most of his clients are clustered in Central West NSW, with the remainder spread throughout the agricultural districts of South Australia, Victoria and Queensland.

Mr Violi is a self-taught forecaster.

Until recently he farmed strawberries with his brother and father in the Yarra Valley of Victoria. 

“When the internet took off in the late 1990s there was so much information online which I had never been able to read in a book, I learnt so much. From there I was able to put together what I was seeing and how to communicate it.”



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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 19 May 2018 at 11:35am
Let's see how this pans out Smile

https://www.facebook.com/anthony.violi.9?fref=gs&hc_ref=ARRLLxswVpw5ZD4mQ77x0liB5gWud2n5qUE6-eTrj7JQAOAeUNrM3SiZA-M6gbqGowQ&dti=1689955904397634&hc_location=group" rel="nofollow - Anthony Violi
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1689955904397634/admins/" rel="nofollow - - Admin · https://www.facebook.com/groups/1689955904397634/permalink/1790466221013268/" rel="nofollow - -

Good morning all, pop quiz for everyone today. I have attached the SSTs from today, and also from the same time last year. Something very significant is noticeable, something that will affect our weather in the next few years.

The current picture is the first one, one year ago is the second one. Can anyone see what it is that is very significant with this? Let me know you thoughts, and if you can pick up what I have spotted here.

https://postimg.cc/image/n9l2ka8u3/" rel="nofollow"> https://postimages.org/" rel="nofollow - free image hosting

https://postimages.org/" rel="nofollow">

https://www.facebook.com/daniel.marrett.1?fref=gc&dti=1689955904397634" rel="nofollow - Daniel Marrett Loads more cool water to the Americas more warm our side. Also the Atlantic looks to be massively cooler.
Got a sneaky suspicion that the funny SST are what we need for it to happen. Any thoughts?


https://www.facebook.com/anthony.violi.9?fref=gc&dti=1689955904397634" rel="nofollow - Anthony Violi Cold AMO signature!


https://www.facebook.com/anthony.violi.9?fref=gc&dti=1689955904397634" rel="nofollow - Anthony Violi Daniel is the closest, the Atlantic is now showing the signature of a cold AMO phase, the first signs things are about to change in the next few years. My take is we will see one more El Nino, either at the end of this year or next year, then La Ninas will be back in vogue and we will see plenty of them, and a temperature drop globally. In essence, when this changes to the cold phase, our weather will change dramatically to the wetter and cooler phase.


https://www.facebook.com/corey.blacksell?fref=gc&dti=1689955904397634" rel="nofollow - Corey Blacksell Anthony, do you have an analogue period to compare your thoughts with?

https://www.facebook.com/groups/1689955904397634/permalink/1790466221013268/?comment_id=1790497841010106&reply_comment_id=1790819244311299&comment_tracking=%7Btn%3AR9%7D" rel="nofollow -
https://www.facebook.com/anthony.violi.9?fref=gc&dti=1689955904397634" rel="nofollow - Anthony Violi The cold AMO was between 1962-1994

https://www.facebook.com/corey.blacksell?fref=gc&dti=1689955904397634" rel="nofollow - Corey Blacksell   to reiterate - cold is good?
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1689955904397634/permalink/1790466221013268/?comment_id=1790497841010106&reply_comment_id=1790820230977867&comment_tracking=%7Btn%3AR9%7D" rel="nofollow -
https://www.facebook.com/anthony.violi.9?fref=gc&dti=1689955904397634" rel="nofollow - Anthony Violi Yes the cold AMO was when we had our wettest and coolest period in the last 100 years

https://www.facebook.com/Thunderstruck24?fref=gc&dti=1689955904397634" rel="nofollow - Rowland Beardsell When you posted this I knew it was about the Atlantic. Exciting times potentially I think!

https://www.facebook.com/anthony.violi.9?fref=gc&dti=1689955904397634" rel="nofollow - Anthony Violi Indeed, it is now setting up for an El nino or warm Pacific for the next 24 months that we now have to have, and then its on with multiple La Ninas.




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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 31 Dec 2018 at 11:24am
The reason forecasters worldwide are having such a hard time of getting it right!

"On a side note, I have been catching up over the last day or two on goings on around the globe, I see a lot of comments about failed forecasts and teleconnections that are not working.

There is a total disconnect at the moment in the climate, something I have been big one for 2 years now, with the Madden Julian Oscillation being one of these teleconnections that is not playing out as we would normally expect.

At the moment, the US government is in shutdown, and all of the data I use, I cannot access until it’s resolved as NOAA is not updating any of their data.

September was a great lesson for all of us, we would never see a dry month if you were given that same data 10 years ago, and we would never see the dry summer either.

And there is only one culprit, in my opinion, and its water vapour, and the current status of the MJO is confirmation of that. It is currently in a realm of hyper drive so intense, that we could see something special should the cards go our way.

And it is also misbehaving against the QBO as well, a lot of things that should be happening now are not, which is why both the La Nina in 2017/18, and this years attempt at El Nino, both were failures.

Everywhere I look, every indicator does not do what you expect in the weeks after, even the AAO here is not doing as expected."

One only has to look at this pressure anomaly map for the globe, and notice straight away we have lower pressures at both poles, and significant too. And at the same time, how often do you think that happens?

Very rare, and the only reason can be water vapour being fed into these areas, because of the extremely strong activity in the tropics, and this has to work its way South and North.

So the organisation here is non existent, and that is because the oceans have warm and cold spots everywhere they shouldn’t have, and I mentioned last year, the atmosphere cant set up how it would like.

In the next few days, I will update the Seasonal outlooks, I won’t be changing the outlooks in the short term, I still expect heavy summer rains to develop.

But later in 2019 becomes problematic, because no matter which way this goes, these are the problems were are going to face. The only way to over come it, is a strong La Nina like 2010.

That may or may not happen, we could be stuck in this rut for a bit longer, or one could develop later in 2019, the next 3 months is crucial to that.

What I am looking for now is the next push from he East to firstly bring rainfall, which it will, but to also warm the Indian Ocean, with out a warm Indian, 2019 won’t be a wet year, it will remain on the dry side.

Because we have an out of control tropics at the moment, that won’t matter through summer, it’s the rest of the year that is important, and we should start to see the Indian Ocean turn in the autumn, and if we get lucky, a negative IOD is on the cards.



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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 30 Apr 2019 at 9:15pm
The entire population, starting with farmers are depending on this bloke being nearer the mark than the BOM so we can all only hope as another generally dry year will send so many more to the wall.

My hard feed has risen by 20% but thankfully I'm only feeding one but I heard a few weeks ago a suggestion was being put to trainers to increase fees due to the surge in prices.

 

Shortly we will look at the Bom’s updated ENSO forecast, but before we do that, this forecast above is going to be another spectacular fail, because the BOMs forecasts continually reflect weak El Nino conditions that are non existent.

And this will be a fail 3 days into the month, so by the end of May we should see well above average deciles for NSW, Victoria, SA and QLD, as much bigger systems will develop in the next 4 weeks.

 

The 46 day European forecast is above, and I have cut it down to 30 days, and it has no signal whatsoever, so either the BOMs model is woefully wrong, or they are trying to maintain this drought story line with Dave Burton, who runs the Inigo Jones page.

Both of those possibilities are probably correct, the model is overstating El Nino, and they are falsely trying to say the drought will roll on, despite the best inland rain for a decade this last 3 months in much of QLD, and now much of NSW, before this forthcoming rain dumps a huge amount.

So when the next update is done in Mid May, one wonders how much wetter the BOM will go, given they are running one month behind, maybe two months on their ENSO forecast tracker.

 

The new BOM outlook is above, and no surprises, a short lived weak El Nino event is still on the cards according to them. As you can see , they have Nino 3.4 temps int he Central Pacific at 1.0c above normal right now.

And further to that, both times the pacific built up enough heat for an El Nino, the trade winds increased and destroyed the heat, and again we now see the top 300 meters of the Pcific ocean int he Nino regions losing heat fast.

We are now cooler and have less heat content than anytime in the last 12 months, and continuing to fall. So the BOM are either delusional, corrupt, maybe both, I have no idea how they can believe a model when the data clearly shows something different.



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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: Gay3
Date Posted: 16 Feb 2021 at 9:28am
I know a few of us have land & therefore always trying to plan ahead, so in case it's of help, this was posted last night Smile Personally I'll be erring on the conservative side.

Gobba: AV, if all of the models you cited indicate at worst neutral to better than neutral outlook for MJJ, what is the justification for your outlook?
Grain growers are going to be worried when you float views so contrary to all the other models you have shown and dont put up detailed and strong analytical evidence to support your minority view.
There are hundreds of millions of dollars at stake here!! I and others are always nervous at this time of year and we dont need to be spooked. Can you provide a more detailed analytical review of the reasons for your position?

Hi ?????, it is very simple, almost all of the rain NSW has received in the last 12 months is not the result of a trough. We have virtual weather, it is ordered by someone and they create it, you have seen me show time and again no cold air aloft with all of this rain. It is only a matter of time before they come out and declare you are going to have to pay for rain, like they currently do in China and the United Arab Emirates.
I am not sure if you noticed but this is war on humanity taking place right now. I am not here to spook anyone, I am here to save as many farmers as I can, because there is no future in farming in Australia, they are going to take everyones farms because you are classed as a tenant, go to the titles office if you want proof and ask them.

Check the world economic Forum, they have great pleasure telling everyone the Great Reset is coming, and you will own nothing.
There is no longer any skill in weather forecasting, I think I have proved that in the last 2 years, the weather is so far removed from reality thats it is very obvious.
Why is it the are filling the Basin do you think? Why did Gina Rineheart put 15,000 head of cattle in New England late in 2019? You dont think China is getting itself geared up for a full blown drought?
I was burnt once before in 2018 and 2019 when 2 years in a row a Negative IOD was reversed half way through the set up, and I am not going to make that mistake again. The very fact all the models, including BOM, have average to above gives me supreme confidence in my forecast.




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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!


Posted By: rusty nails
Date Posted: 16 Feb 2021 at 9:58am
If China can order rain, why are they gearing up for a full blown drought?



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