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Australian property crash

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Topic: Australian property crash
Posted By: BROOKE
Subject: Australian property crash
Date Posted: 26 Mar 2013 at 1:50pm
There you go, as predicted on this forum in 2009.
They said it would never happen. Could have they been anymore wrong?
And its STILL crashing. Down down, prices are down.

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Pacific/Australia/Price-History



Replies:
Posted By: Toll Road
Date Posted: 26 Mar 2013 at 5:54pm
Prperty crashes are all good is you're all ccashed up then you buy,buy,buy.


Posted By: BROOKE
Date Posted: 26 Mar 2013 at 5:55pm
Tend to agree with this,, (written by Stephen Stekhoven)

What is missing from most house price analyses is the fact that there are qualitative factors at play: New York or Paris are clearly more desirable places to live than Detroit.

I have lived in Sydney (27 years), Melbourne (19 years) and now Brisbane (9 years). I was a one-eyed Sydneysider besotted by its bridge, its harbour, its 'Rocks' and Opera House: I espoused the hackneyed 'best thing to come out of Melbourne is the road to Sydney' view and depite that I feel I am in a position to judge which city affords the best broadly accessible lifestyle.
Let me say: it ain't Sydney. Sure, the place has its charms, if you live at Cremorne Point in a renovated sandstone and tuck pointed brick bungalow overlooking the Quay on a $500,000 plus salary, quaffing your choice of pinot noir. The picture is probably not so rosy for those on average incomes battling Victoria Rd traffic from their $700,000 two bedroom, 1 bathroom, ex housing commission shacks in the endlessly dreary western suburban wasteland.
Brisbane? Not really. There's too much 'me too-ism'; it's parochial; a there's a heavy handed monolithic local government stifling cultural creativity led by the 'can do' man whose self-recommendation beggars belief when you stack it up against actual achievement. Starved of cultural fulfillment; the big productions sell out in days if and when they finally venture north. It's hard to find a decent feed at a reasonable price; there's overpriced public transport; poor traffic management and the much vaunted weather is frankly somewhat overrated. It is a housing arbitrager's market that lags the spikes in Sydney and Melbourne prices. It's a place of retreat from the action to pass one's days in bored resignation.
A recent trip to Melbourne brought it all flooding back. Leafy suburbs; public transport that works well; the opportunity to take in a big match at the Melbourne Park Tennis Centre; eat a delicious meal at any of a few hundred urbane, well priced restaurants. Catch up for a coffee in the 'laneways' buzzing with activity; go grunge alternative in Smith St, Fitzroy where affordable rents allow for youthful entrepreneurial experimentation. Take in a game at the MCG or the Dome and feel the palpable emotion. Enjoy the vast parklands or the vibrant theatre scene or the easily accessible weekend retreats of the Yarra Valley, Great Ocean Road or Mt Macedon and Daylesford to name but a few. The sporting and big event capital of Australia, the research capital serviced by the number two and three universities in the country behind ANU, Melbourne is simply a fabulous place to live.
Overpriced? Maybe. But I ask you: what price is a life?






Posted By: Crash
Date Posted: 26 Mar 2013 at 6:09pm
Originally posted by BROOKE BROOKE wrote:

There you go, as predicted on this forum in 2009.



They are going up here Wink

What about your prediction Westpac would shut their doors and you advised everyone here to take their money out Confused


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Posted By: Whale
Date Posted: 26 Mar 2013 at 6:18pm
Australian houses are vastly overpriced as are many things in Australia.
For a small country at the arse end of the world we sure know how to charge


Posted By: Nocturnal
Date Posted: 26 Mar 2013 at 6:20pm
When did they let you out Brooke ? Welcome back , I think

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The only problem with backing winners ? You never have enough on....


Posted By: BROOKE
Date Posted: 27 Mar 2013 at 6:04am
Wagga? 


Posted By: waggamick
Date Posted: 27 Mar 2013 at 6:13am
Please note that the above post was not an error.


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The Dude Abides


Posted By: BROOKE
Date Posted: 27 Mar 2013 at 6:39am
Stood corrected Smile


Posted By: oneonesit
Date Posted: 27 Mar 2013 at 6:54am
Originally posted by Nocturnal Nocturnal wrote:

When did they let you out Brooke ? Welcome back , I think
Should be asking for her money back............treatment obviously hasn't worked ! Same topics / same pack drill

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TBV Statistical Analyst - & often misunderstood !


Posted By: Browndog
Date Posted: 27 Mar 2013 at 7:26am

Architects of housing fortune

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/contributor/stephen-koukoulas_0" rel="nofollow - Stephen Koukoulas http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/3/27/property/architects-housing-fortune#comments" rel="nofollow -
  • http://www.businessspectator.com.au/industries" rel="nofollow - Industries
  • http://www.businessspectator.com.au/industries/property" rel="nofollow - Property
  • http://www.businessspectator.com.au/economy" rel="nofollow - Economy

House prices are surging and the rate at which prices are increasing is, if anything, accelerating. This should not only kill off the remaining iota of hope for a further interest rate cut, but it could see the Reserve Bank of Australia move to a bias to hike interest rates before year end.

According to RPData, house prices in the five major cities have risen a stonking 1.4 per cent so far in March (annualised pace of close to 20 per cent) and are now are up a solid 2.7 per cent year-to-date in 2013 (annualised pace of 12 per cent). It seems uncontroversial to be thinking, given this strength, that house prices will rise 10 per cent this year. The risk is building that the rise could be significantly more.

And when house prices pick up in Australia, they usually have a year where the rise is 15 to 20 per cent. With interest rates as low as they are now, the unemployment rate anchored at a remarkably low rate and real wages registering solid gains, there is no reason why there shouldn’t be a rise well above 10 per cent by year end.



Read more:  http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/3/27/property/architects-housing-fortune#ixzz2Ogg7gIhc" rel="nofollow - http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2013/3/27/property/architects-housing-fortune#ixzz2Ogg7gIhc


Posted By: Whale
Date Posted: 27 Mar 2013 at 7:32am
What a spoil sport BD, debunking the fantasy with facts Ouch


Posted By: Browndog
Date Posted: 27 Mar 2013 at 7:32am
Embarrassed


Posted By: BROOKE
Date Posted: 27 Mar 2013 at 8:20am
Browndog, congrats on referencing your Resource.
But note the quality(and lack of) Resource you have used.
Its just a business article. Basically as good as a Real Estate agent telling you that its a great time to buy.

I get my statistics from The Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Not only have they rightly pointed out, by using MATHEMATICAL GOVERNMENT DATA, (not real estate agent data), that Australian Property is on the slide down.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics also recently concluded in an enormous Study they did, that investing in Australian housing, overall, in the longrun, represents a loss.
Sure, some win. But hey, some do in gambling too.
But overall, investing in property, is a loss in the longrun, and Bureau of Statistics has proven that mathematically.
Data from a Real estate agent doesnt interest me.

Stick to this,,,,,
Save up for a deposit, as much as you can, get yourself a nice property, with as little debt attached to it as possible, and LIVE IN IT. Call it HOME.
Now thats PRICELESS.


Posted By: Browndog
Date Posted: 27 Mar 2013 at 8:47am


Hardly a real estate agent Brooke Ouch

Stephen Koukoulas has a rare and specialised professional experience over more than 25 years as an economist in government, as Global Head of economic and market research, a Chief Economist for two major banks and as economic advisor to the Prime Minister.

Stephen is currently Managing Director of Market Economics Pty Ltd, a firm he recently established in response to the growing need for independent and tailored macroeconomic analysis for business clients needing to convert economic data into financial market and policy risks. His work provides clients with unique insights into the macroeconomic policy debate.

Between September 2010 and July 2011, Stephen was Senior Economic Advisor to the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard MP having moved there from a senior role in the Commonwealth Treasury. Before that, Stephen spent three years in London as the Global Head of research and strategy for TD Securities.

Stephen has also spent 10 years as a Senior Economist and Chief Economist of Citibank Australia and Chief Strategist at TD Securities in Sydney. Between 1999 and 2001 he was The Australian Financial Review’s Economics Analyst.

Stephen is a graduate of the ANU following which he gained an unique insight into the workings of government as an economist in the Commonwealth Treasury during the late 1980s and early 1990s. In Treasury, Stephen worked in areas covering economic forecasting, monetary policy analysis, current economic conditions and the international economy.

Stephen’s experience is clearly very wide with his understanding of political economy, policy and financial market issues. These are important in getting insights into the economic policy and makes his analysis and services highly sought after.



Posted By: max manewer
Date Posted: 27 Mar 2013 at 9:19am
The property boom is the ugliest thing to happen to Australia in my lifetime. And all funded by debt. In round figures, a trillion dollars worth of it. Wise heads have calculated that the price of houses, and rents, would be roughly half where they are are without the de-regulation of the banking sector. This has been compounded by the absurd practice of negative gearing tax advantages to investors in rental houses. This made a residential house somehow into a business, a very strange idea since it does not employ anyone. On the basis that there is no nett advantage to the nation from allowing vast amounts of savings of Asian countries to be used to push up the price of housing, but in fact a massive nett disadvantage ( sure there have been some winners, but for the vast majority it has been neutral, or a serious impost) the astute observer arrives at the conclusion that the politicians who presided over this are not worth a cracker, and that is being polite. Next time you hear some dishonest politician trumpeting about many years of successive economic growth, remember that all this foreign money shovelled into the place was counted, incredibly, as "growth". The chickens have yet to come home to roost in this debacle, the only thing that has kept the housing prices high is continued importation of money, and the strong local deposits in banks under the govt guarantee. If the tap was to be turned off, the prices will indeed crash. The housing boom is ugly, because it reveals widespread greed to get rich off unfortunates who only want a basic roof over their head. I am sure people like "Nugget" Coombs are spinning in their graves at this incompetence.


Posted By: max manewer
Date Posted: 27 Mar 2013 at 9:39am
I wouldn't get too concerned about her currency predictions, unless she made a bet about it and welched on it.


Posted By: BROOKE
Date Posted: 27 Mar 2013 at 10:04am
Originally posted by max manewer max manewer wrote:

The property boom is the ugliest thing to happen to Australia in my lifetime. And all funded by debt. In round figures, a trillion dollars worth of it. Wise heads have calculated that the price of houses, and rents, would be roughly half where they are are without the de-regulation of the banking sector. This has been compounded by the absurd practice of negative gearing tax advantages to investors in rental houses. This made a residential house somehow into a business, a very strange idea since it does not employ anyone. On the basis that there is no nett advantage to the nation from allowing vast amounts of savings of Asian countries to be used to push up the price of housing, but in fact a massive nett disadvantage ( sure there have been some winners, but for the vast majority it has been neutral, or a serious impost) the astute observer arrives at the conclusion that the politicians who presided over this are not worth a cracker, and that is being polite. Next time you hear some dishonest politician trumpeting about many years of successive economic growth, remember that all this foreign money shovelled into the place was counted, incredibly, as "growth". The chickens have yet to come home to roost in this debacle, the only thing that has kept the housing prices high is continued importation of money, and the strong local deposits in banks under the govt guarantee. If the tap was to be turned off, the prices will indeed crash. The housing boom is ugly, because it reveals widespread greed to get rich off unfortunates who only want a basic roof over their head. I am sure people like "Nugget" Coombs are spinning in their graves at this incompetence.


Outstanding post Max. Bravo. Bravo. Clap
Spot on.


Posted By: BROOKE
Date Posted: 28 Mar 2013 at 8:56am
Article today

http://finance.ninemsn.com.au/newsbusiness/aap/8633700/job-worries-keep-mortgage-holders-stressed


Posted By: BROOKE
Date Posted: 28 Mar 2013 at 9:05am
By the way, for any Melbournians on this website, take a trip to Mulgrave area, Springvale Road, the Industrial zone.
once a mass of activity, employment, large companies.
now its building after building up for lease and totally vacant. turning into a mini detroit.
more examples of people that cant pay their mortgages, and have to sell, and in a hurry.



Posted By: subastral
Date Posted: 28 Mar 2013 at 9:24am
Originally posted by BROOKE BROOKE wrote:

By the way, for any Melbournians on this website, take a trip to Mulgrave area, Springvale Road, the Industrial zone.
once a mass of activity, employment, large companies.
now its building after building up for lease and totally vacant. turning into a mini detroit.
more examples of people that cant pay their mortgages, and have to sell, and in a hurry.

 
So, I am confused. Is it an industrial zone as you mention in your first sentence, or people that can't pay their mortgages?
Businesses are struggling, maybe they are in exports and getting killed by the high dollar that you predicted would disappear and hasn't?
Buy in a good area and you won't lose on your house. Live in the sticks, and suburbs of mcmansions, then you may struggle, as those areas are funded on zero deposit and people living above their means.


Posted By: Whale
Date Posted: 28 Mar 2013 at 9:27am
Originally posted by subastral subastral wrote:

Originally posted by BROOKE BROOKE wrote:

By the way, for any Melbournians on this website, take a trip to Mulgrave area, Springvale Road, the Industrial zone.
once a mass of activity, employment, large companies.
now its building after building up for lease and totally vacant. turning into a mini detroit.
more examples of people that cant pay their mortgages, and have to sell, and in a hurry.

 
So, I am confused. Is it an industrial zone as you mention in your first sentence, or people that can't pay their mortgages?
Businesses are struggling, maybe they are in exports and getting killed by the high dollar that you predicted would disappear and hasn't?
Buy in a good area and you won't lose on your house. Live in the sticks, and suburbs of mcmansions, then you may struggle, as those areas are funded on zero deposit and people living above their means.


Noticed exactly the same thing but decided not to post, after all you don't expect "logical" arguments from some people Ouch


Posted By: The Muffin Man
Date Posted: 28 Mar 2013 at 9:39am
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

Originally posted by subastral subastral wrote:

Originally posted by BROOKE BROOKE wrote:

By the way, for any Melbournians on this website, take a trip to Mulgrave area, Springvale Road, the Industrial zone.
once a mass of activity, employment, large companies.
now its building after building up for lease and totally vacant. turning into a mini detroit.
more examples of people that cant pay their mortgages, and have to sell, and in a hurry.

 
So, I am confused. Is it an industrial zone as you mention in your first sentence, or people that can't pay their mortgages?
Businesses are struggling, maybe they are in exports and getting killed by the high dollar that you predicted would disappear and hasn't?
Buy in a good area and you won't lose on your house. Live in the sticks, and suburbs of mcmansions, then you may struggle, as those areas are funded on zero deposit and people living above their means.


Noticed exactly the same thing but decided not to post, after all you don't expect "logical" arguments from some people Ouch


LOL

I also noticed the exact same thing, and then was going to post the exact same thing as whale but thought, what's the point? Take solace from the fact you are confused by BROOKE's posts subby, it means your brain is still functioning. LOL



Posted By: BROOKE
Date Posted: 28 Mar 2013 at 9:56am
The reference to the industrial zone, is that its meant to be a hype of activity for JOBS.
But its becoming a ghost town of commercial buildings being up for LEASE.
So many of the buildings are vacant.
the area literally had thousands of people employed. even just 5 years ago.
drive around there now, and its lease after lease after lease, vacant buildings.
where did all the people go??? they would have had mortgages, even if they lived in Bentleigh and travelled to Mulgrave to work.
Mulgrave isnt exactly outer east.
Narre warren etc is outer east.



Posted By: Whale
Date Posted: 02 Apr 2013 at 9:04am
House price index has increased 6 moths in a row


Posted By: BROOKE
Date Posted: 03 Apr 2013 at 12:18pm
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

House price index has increased 6 moths in a row


in darwin


Posted By: jayzaa
Date Posted: 03 Apr 2013 at 12:30pm
All over according to news report

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www.keffelstein.com

gotta live the dream


Posted By: saintly96
Date Posted: 03 Apr 2013 at 12:57pm
http://www.smh.com.au/business/home-prices-rising-as-rate-cuts-fuel-confidence-20130402-2h3wl.html" rel="nofollow - http://www.smh.com.au/business/home-prices-rising-as-rate-cuts-fuel-confidence-20130402-2h3wl.html



Sydney has become the first capital city to regain all of the ground lost since the onset of the 2010 property slump, while Melbourne has bucked predictions of further price falls.

Analysts RP Data-Rismark report that Sydney dwelling values grew 1.5 per cent last month, capping a growth trend that began nearly a year ago and has made it the only city to fully recover the losses of the last three years, with the dwelling value reaching a new peak in March.



Overall, Australia's housing market posted another strong month of value rises, with nearly every capital city in the country experiencing growth.

The national dwelling value rose 1.3 per cent in March, making it the second strongest monthly performance since the onset of the slump.

"[Nationally] the March 2013 result is one of the strongest we've seen over the 3 years since March 2010," said Rismark International CEO Ben Skilbeck, who noted that only one capital city, Adelaide, experienced no growth.

RP Data senior research analyst Cameron Kusher said the Sydney market has been "quite strong in Sydney since May last year."

"Sydney has experienced a long period of sustained under performance. There's not a lot of new construction taking place but population growth is starting to ramp up again, which is what I really think is driving that market.

Melbourne dwelling values rose 0.8 per cent over the month, seemingly contradicting the Reserve Bank's prediction last week that more falls were ahead for the city.

Values also rose 0.4 per cent in Canberra, 1 per cent in Brisbane, 2.4 per cent in Darwin, 2.5 per cent in Hobart and 3.4 per cent in Perth.

But, unlike Sydney, values in virtually all of the capital cities still remain well below their 2010 peaks despite the recent trend that has seen a return to growth.

Brisbane is still 9.5 per cent down, while Melbourne is 6.2 per cent lower. The national dwelling value remains 3 per cent below peak.

The RBA board left official interest rates at 3 per cent on Tuesday, following its April meeting.





Posted By: BROOKE
Date Posted: 03 Apr 2013 at 10:56pm
People have to remember, that even if property just flatlines(doesnt go up or down), thats actually a huge loss, as there is big cost in maintaining a property, and also rates, councils, body corporates etc.
So lets say you buy at 480,000, and it sits at 480,000, for 3 or 4 years, thats a huge loss.
The market will call it "steady", but the truth is, its a LOSS, as real estate articles dont factor in all the running cost of the property, eg Rates etc.


Posted By: vontastic
Date Posted: 06 Apr 2013 at 7:58pm
Originally posted by BROOKE BROOKE wrote:

People have to remember, that even if property just flatlines(doesnt go up or down), thats actually a huge loss, as there is big cost in maintaining a property, and also rates, councils, body corporates etc.
So lets say you buy at 480,000, and it sits at 480,000, for 3 or 4 years, thats a huge loss.
The market will call it "steady", but the truth is, its a LOSS, as real estate articles dont factor in all the running cost of the property, eg Rates etc.

I have a property and rental income pays all costs
and capital rises average 10% per year




Posted By: BROOKE
Date Posted: 08 Apr 2013 at 6:51pm
If property was so profitable, then why doesnt every single banker and real estate agent snap up every property for themselves?????????




Posted By: Whale
Date Posted: 13 Apr 2013 at 12:53pm
Melbourne property prices rose 2.2% last quarter.

Has anyone heard anything about or invested in the NRAS scheme where the government pays you $10,000 tax free for 10 years to invest in low cost housing?
Sounds good but if something looks too good to be true it usually is


Posted By: Passing Through
Date Posted: 13 Apr 2013 at 12:58pm
Never mind the NRAS scheme, I am parlaying my 700% profit on my Bitcoins into rental accommodation 


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 16 Sep 2018 at 2:36pm
Watch 60 minutes tonight.

Sp many Australians also bought investment properties to be "trendy", to do renovations, s#cked in by shows like The Block, making people think the market will always go up.
In many cases, people will lose $500,000.
The scary part, the interest rates havent even gone up yet.

This may have come 4 years after this thread, but its happening and was always going to.


Posted By: Whale
Date Posted: 16 Sep 2018 at 2:41pm
Originally posted by Redemption Redemption wrote:

Watch 60 minutes tonight.

Sp many Australians also bought investment properties to be "trendy", to do renovations, s#cked in by shows like The Block, making people think the market will always go up.
In many cases, people will lose $500,000.
The scary part, the interest rates havent even gone up yet.

This may have come 4 years after this thread, but its happening and was always going to.


And you wonder why people don't take you seriously

5.5 years  Confused


Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 16 Sep 2018 at 4:56pm
60 minutes will have some "credentialed" madman doing a " climate Change style delusion" , To entertain the masses and put fear into the inexperienced .
I've been through the preachers of 100's of these doom & gloom crazies for over 60 years. NO common sense.
Nuclear war or some unforseen destruction from another planet excluded ,
real estate Prices in solid residential areas CAN'T come down.
The usual cycles, accepted adjustments, of population movements as a result of the hordes forced to move to more affordable areas, Migration & Visa population explosions and deals being done that sees carpenters /tradies demanding $288000 a year income , are just a few things to think about, before you entertain the shxt that 60 minutes will serve up tonight.
Brisbane around me & smaller states , are in their price rise cycle , while rumour says Sydney - Melbourne are down to 8 % ...   lol .    Considering they have just come off a 50% boom , has my maths saying they are in fact up 42% in this cycle.
We have 100's of Thousands Homeless , Rents through the roof . Plus Migrants queue'd up for miles.     
Lets see what these clowns on 60 minutes have to say.    I will find it very interesting.      Especially when they say foreclosures are imminent to people who have over committed ...   Maybe true but the queue attends to that.


Posted By: Second Chance
Date Posted: 16 Sep 2018 at 5:08pm
Have three times made the mistake of watching 60 Minutes over recent times Macca.  Put plainly, the show is extremely plain, and has been for perhaps 10 years or more now.

So won't be watching tonight irrepective of who's on.


Posted By: Whale
Date Posted: 16 Sep 2018 at 5:16pm
Originally posted by Second Chance Second Chance wrote:

Have three times made the mistake of watching 60 Minutes over recent times Macca.  Put plainly, the show is extremely plain, and has been for perhaps 10 years or more now.

So won't be watching tonight irrepective of who's on.

Superficial, stereotyped, boring presentation to the extreme. Unlike 4 Corners on our great ABC ,responsible for 2 Royal Commissions so far Clap

Brooke I took your advice 5 years ago and sold 2 properties, you owe me $800,000Ouch


Posted By: Shrunk in the Wash
Date Posted: 16 Sep 2018 at 6:34pm
Originally posted by BROOKE BROOKE wrote:

If property was so profitable, then why doesnt every single banker and real estate agent snap up every property for themselves?????????


Any do. I got “gazumpted” by an filthy grub of an agent a few years back. Cost me 100k at the time which has now parlayed into half a mill


Posted By: Tlazolteotl
Date Posted: 16 Sep 2018 at 6:37pm
If they keep on pumping immigrants into Sydney and Melbourne how can it go down much?


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"Two hundred years ago, 99.999 percent of human idiocy went unrecorded. Now we have the Internet."

Errol Morris


Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 16 Sep 2018 at 8:03pm
Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

If they keep on pumping immigrants into Sydney and Melbourne how can it go down much?


The Cycles Of Real Estate are mostly not moving much and then every 5,6, whatever years it all goes gang busters .     That usually runs Melb , Sydney , before the oter Suburbs and then onto the other main Cities , Brisbane etc.
Always amusing as people only want to buy when everyone else does.

Don't use the word "Much" Tlaz .     They can't come down at all , Fluctuate a little but prices doubled at least in past 9 years and while it goes off the boil now, while Brisbane etc take up the slack,   it will double in the next similar period of time.
Oversupply of apartments slow things until catch up ( has to , as off the plan and sales are needed to fund the next flood of building.)
Areas with limits of heights will be gradually eased as they can only go UP UP UP .     You'll see million dollar Studio apartments all over Sydney & near Suburbs sooner rather than later me thinks.


Posted By: Whale
Date Posted: 16 Sep 2018 at 8:48pm
Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

If they keep on pumping immigrants into Sydney and Melbourne how can it go down much?

that would be a good argument if property was proper intrinsic value, it is overvalued by 50 % IMO looking at o\seas prices, and could crash due to our obsession with property and irresponsible buying by the gotta have it nows


Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 16 Sep 2018 at 9:41pm
60 minutes was absurd .   Not even worth talking about further, other than to say , as predicted , the ones crying are those who have over committed and now can't service the loans .   That's been happening to a minority since the year dot.

Whale .   We aren't overseas.     Places like Ireland had a boom and crash and I know foolish Australians who did their arz.
They export people , We are a Totally different scene.

We have an ever increasing population , Since WW2 demand far outstrips supply and it is getting worse as the better Residential land dries up.


Posted By: Tlazolteotl
Date Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 7:24am
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

If they keep on pumping immigrants into Sydney and Melbourne how can it go down much?

that would be a good argument if property was proper intrinsic value, it is overvalued by 50 % IMO looking at o\seas prices, and could crash due to our obsession with property and irresponsible buying by the gotta have it nows


But I've just spent $70,000 on my butler's pantry.Cry


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"Two hundred years ago, 99.999 percent of human idiocy went unrecorded. Now we have the Internet."

Errol Morris


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 8:10am
The whole demand versus supply, can very much be an illusion in property.

Just because people "want" a home, doesnt mean they want, or can, get it at a high price.

People have a demand to buy a home, at a low price.
Thats the demand.

Equally, there is a demand to sell. The banks will be forcing people to sell.
They cant finance their loans with the banks anymore.

The amount of people selling, outweighs the amount of people wanting to buy a home at a cheap price.

There is NOT a supply shortage in Australia.

Here is the big part:

Agents are bidding "down".

Example: when a house is up for grabs for say $900,000, the dude nextdoor is willing to sell at $800,000. Same kind of house.
So the agent for the $900,000 house, says, hang on, we gotta go down in price.

bang. theres your collapse.
its already started happening.
People are bidding "down".

Big big difference.

Yes, its a "correction".
But this correction has people losing squillions, as they falsely believed its an investment that always goes up.

As for immigration, are we referring to boat people?
Or Indians who score a job at 7/11, part time, if they are lucky??





Posted By: Mr Prospector
Date Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 8:29am
The banks changes in lending policy has caused the current pull back in prices . Its much much harder to qualify for a bank housing loan . 
 All the overseas investors getting all interest loans on No Doc of even Dodgy Doc incomes has largely disappeared . Also ,  if Labour get in at the next election the negative gearing policy will also cause investment changes .

The next problem is rising interest rates and the resetting of loans to principle and interest payments . This will cause a more serious correction I believe and when it happens as you'll see Must Sell type property investors driving prices down . 




Posted By: Passing Through
Date Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 8:31am
The prospect of a Labor govt and likely changes to negative gearing rules around investors and the halving of Chinese investment this year hasn't helped much.

-------------
Only the best people.


Posted By: Mr Prospector
Date Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 8:45am
Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

The prospect of a Labor govt and likely changes to negative gearing rules around investors and the halving of Chinese investment this year hasn't helped much.

The negative gearing changes is no bad thing either as I believe negative gearing is bad for the overall economy. It doesn't add wealth but is fuelled on borrowing that banks source primarily on O/S markets .  

That investment money would be better elsewhere in the economy . 


Posted By: Passing Through
Date Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 8:47am
I meant bad for speculative investors who will look elsewhere, as their prospects of quick turnover are diminished.

-------------
Only the best people.


Posted By: Mr Prospector
Date Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 9:10am
You're right , but where will they look is an interesting question ? 


Posted By: Passing Through
Date Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 9:24am
Global politics will have a big bearing including who is the US President at the time and how long it is anticipated he will be there. With a US lead ever upward push in GDP rather than the last decades emphasis on certainty and stability, currencies will be dicey. Increasing interest rates to counter the resulting one sided inflation may still make real estate a safer investment despite regulatory changes. There has been a $25b reduction of Chinese money this year with Canada being a major beneficiary of it. It will take a year or so to sort out the wheat from the chaff and the level of a correction.

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Only the best people.


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 9:38am
Originally posted by Mr Prospector Mr Prospector wrote:

The banks changes in lending policy has caused the current pull back in prices . Its much much harder to qualify for a bank housing loan . 
 All the overseas investors getting all interest loans on No Doc of even Dodgy Doc incomes has largely disappeared . Also ,  if Labour get in at the next election the negative gearing policy will also cause investment changes .

The next problem is rising interest rates and the resetting of loans to principle and interest payments . This will cause a more serious correction I believe and when it happens as you'll see Must Sell type property investors driving prices down . 



AND, Unemployment will rise.

Peoples wages arent going up either. Its not matching the inflation.
Its all out of whack.
People cant meet their debts.
They are far too heavily invested into their homes, and cant make mortgage payments.

On top of this, investors are and will, sell on mass.
A friend of mine just offloaded a whopping 10 houses on the portfolio. and moved overseas, predicting one of the worst property crashes of the modern era, right here in Australia.


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 9:44am
People need to understand something.
Just because a country is "nice" and people want to live here, doesnt make prices go up forever.

Heck, in America in 2009, you could buy a golf course condo, brand new, 6 bedrooms, immaculate front and back yard, for $60,000

The problem is, the dude nextdoor, was selling his condo, for $50,000.

People wont be paying a mill for an aussie house soon
the bidding is now bidding "down".

when people, in particular investors, start selling on mass, it triggers a tsunami of people bidding "down".

its already happening in brisbane, agents are bidding apartment prices down, because they cant sell at the top, because the landscape of competition is no longer favouring sellers, when bidding goes up.

People want to sell, have to sell.
And buyers, who can barely afford to buy, want to buy cheap.

Yep, there is a demand for housing. CHEAP housing.


Posted By: Whale
Date Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 9:51am
Originally posted by Redemption Redemption wrote:

People need to understand something.
Just because a country is "nice" and people want to live here, doesnt make prices go up forever.

Heck, in America in 2009, you could buy a golf course condo, brand new, 6 bedrooms, immaculate front and back yard, for $60,000

The problem is, the dude nextdoor, was selling his condo, for $50,000.

People wont be paying a mill for an aussie house soon
the bidding is now bidding "down".

when people, in particular investors, start selling on mass, it triggers a tsunami of people bidding "down".

its already happening in brisbane, agents are bidding apartment prices down, because they cant sell at the top, because the landscape of competition is no longer favouring sellers, when bidding goes up.

People want to sell, have to sell.
And buyers, who can barely afford to buy, want to buy cheap.

Yep, there is a demand for housing. CHEAP housing.

wrong Brisbane real estate is appreciating

Why are luxury apartments booming in Brisbane?



http://www.switzer.com.au/the-experts/john-mcgrath-property-expert/why-are-luxury-apartments-booming-in-brisbane/" rel="nofollow - http://www.switzer.com.au/the-experts/john-mcgrath-property-expert/why-are-luxury-apartments-booming-in-brisbane/

Brisbane’s property market leading the nation

http://https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/brisbane-qld/brisbanes-property-market-leading-the-nation-for-first-time-a-decade/news-story/4d9c0075b6f2ac5edf3b2639aabe63fa" rel="nofollow - http://https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/brisbane-qld/brisbanes-property-market-leading-the-nation-for-first-time-a-decade/news-story/4d9c0075b6f2ac5edf3b2639aabe63fa



Posted By: Isaac soloman
Date Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 10:09am
Thats the reale estate sector trying to talk itself up, create markets.

And as Melbourne and Sydney become too expensive, the population has to go/buy somewhere and obviously Brisbane is nest, or that is what the RE agents want you to think.

Tasmania is also increasing, and Adelaide.

SALESMEN....

but there is a lot of greed; ordinary Joe expects to double his purchase price, even now. the prospect of a less return is too scary.


Posted By: Mr Prospector
Date Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 11:35am
Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

. Increasing interest rates to counter the resulting one sided inflation may still make real estate a safer investment despite regulatory changes.

That’s the real problem atm with inflation being purely a Trump Bump and any rising interest rates not a true reflection of the economy here .
I read somewhere that the FED was predicting the Trump Bump to fizzle out in 2020 sometime .
If you think property is still ok then industrial inner city properties are like hens teeth.


Posted By: Whale
Date Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 11:49am
People looking for somewhere to park their money, have seen inner suburb retail freeholds sell for less than 2% yield Shocked

Of course if they are lucky enough to have spare cash


Posted By: Passing Through
Date Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 11:53am
The Fed is talking rate rises and both Mnuchin are Trump are railing against it. I dont that Mnuchin, like Gary Cohn  didn't, has much faith in what is happening, but going along for the time being and hoping the Fed takes control.

A couple of Investment organisations have started to bring their forecast for the end of the sugar hit forward to before the 2020 election even into the early part of 2019. Expect more attempts to cut taxes while increasing the size of govt. 


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Only the best people.


Posted By: Mr Prospector
Date Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 12:33pm
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

People looking for somewhere to park their money, have seen inner suburb retail freeholds sell for less than 2% yield Shocked

Of course if they are lucky enough to have spare cash


That looks really expensive , particularly as the experts are saying retail is starting to struggle a bit .


Posted By: rusty nails
Date Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 1:53pm
2% ?

There's no chance of short term capital gain.

Bank rates are even better than that......


Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 2:09pm
lol.. same old , same old .        There's an old post in there where I said in 2012 , NOW GO BUY A HOUSE .... We were on a similar line as now.

Some new methods in play , Governments used to raise interest rates to slow over heating Real Estate .   I think by arrangements with Lenders they Slow by using post codes to make money harder to get.
One must admire those waiting for prices to fall,   100 years on a bench outside a Real Estate Office is one long wait.


Posted By: Mr Prospector
Date Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 4:03pm
Originally posted by rusty nails rusty nails wrote:

2% ?

There's no chance of short term capital gain.

Bank rates are even better than that......

I've seen some sell for just above 3% , so it wouldn't surprise . You wouldn't think that type of investor would be looking for short term gain but looking for safer long term capital gain and not worried about the yield as much . 


Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 5:12pm
Not even worth debate.    If people can't see the situation in Australia and consider being able to support their Real Estate purchase , then any failure is their fault.
When I chose a final place to end my days ,   I paid top dollars , Sold in lower North Shore of Sydney , so it wasn't ever going to be the best financial result.
Not good by comparison but at this time I've probably gained &80000 in capital gain and saved &180000 in rent.
Not the end of the world , Other than I haven't yet found an exchange rate that is accepted in Heaven Or Hell.


Posted By: rusty nails
Date Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 5:36pm
Originally posted by Mr Prospector Mr Prospector wrote:

Originally posted by rusty nails rusty nails wrote:

2% ?

There's no chance of short term capital gain.

Bank rates are even better than that......


I've seen some sell for just above 3% , so it wouldn't surprise . You wouldn't think that type of investor would be looking for short term gain but looking for safer long term capital gain and not worried about the yield as much . 

I just don't see the rush to buy a low yield investment,when the majority view is that capital losses are more likely than gains,at this stage of the cycle.


Posted By: Dr E
Date Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 10:05pm
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

Originally posted by Second Chance Second Chance wrote:

Have three times made the mistake of watching 60 Minutes over recent times Macca.  Put plainly, the show is extremely plain, and has been for perhaps 10 years or more now.

So won't be watching tonight irrepective of who's on.

Superficial, stereotyped, boring presentation to the extreme. Unlike 4 Corners on our great ABC ,responsible for 2 Royal Commissions so far Clap

Brooke I took your advice 5 years ago and sold 2 properties, you owe me $800,000Ouch

Clap


-------------
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!


Posted By: Dr E
Date Posted: 17 Sep 2018 at 10:29pm
Two of the alleged "experts" who were interviewed by 60 minutes have complained that they were "selectively" quoted to meet the agenda of sensationalising the piece. The industry (admittedly biased) have weighed in and called BS as well. 

Just garbage journalism, would have looked at home on the ABC.Dead

https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/property/2018/09/17/housing-crash-60-minutes/

The best time to buy property in any of the 3 East coast capital cities is NOW, and Brisbane has the best short term upside, with a real shortage of stock to materialise in the next 6 - 18 months.

Properly researched Property investment in Australia is as safe as houses!Thumbs Up 

Disclaimer - Unless Pauline is PM, and we actually stop immigration, then we will see a wipeout in property values.Wink


-------------
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!


Posted By: Redemption
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 8:19am
Australians are enormously in Debt,  the banks want it back and people will have to sell their homes to pay it back. People over capitalised on their homes. End of story.


Posted By: Dr E
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 2:48pm
Wtf? ... you seriously think the banks want it back? ... that's not how lending works ... they never want it back, they want borrowers to pay interest on it forever!

... that's like saying property investors don't want tenants!Wacko


-------------
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!


Posted By: Tlazolteotl
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 3:58pm
Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

Wtf? ... you seriously think the banks want it back? ... that's not how lending works ... they never want it back, they want borrowers to pay interest on it forever!

... that's like saying property investors don't want tenants!Wacko


They foreclose pretty quickly for someone who never wants it back. Foreclose and flip.


-------------
"Two hundred years ago, 99.999 percent of human idiocy went unrecorded. Now we have the Internet."

Errol Morris


Posted By: Dr E
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 6:52pm
Would you be happy to put a $500k on a 12 month term deposit with the bank, and have them turn around after 6 months and say "Sorry, we won't be paying your interest anymore, oh, and we're keeping your money too!"

We're not a Utopian Socialist Society just yet Tlaz!Wink


-------------
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!


Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 7:04pm
Go for it fellas ...   That was total shxt on 60 minutes last night.
I don't have the editication to express it otherwise.


Posted By: Dr E
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 8:45pm
You describe it very accurately macca ... unfortunately it is typical of the lazy dishonest journalism that is simply about creating hysteria ... we have become accustomed to it, and the ABC is one of the leaders of the pack!Dead

Hey macca, you would have the best long term memory here ...

Remember the last time house prices in Australia dropped 45%? .... exactly! Ermm


-------------
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!


Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 9:02pm
YES I do Doc and a true story.

   It was in the early 1940's and some midget Subs entered Sydney Harbour.

The mother ship and company dropped a few shells around our price less areas and I think Real Estate dropped in Rose Bay, for one, by much more than 45%.

Several Years later , with the wonderful people of the flattened areas of Europe started migrating, in large numbers and most were housed early in Huge tent camps in places like Bathurst and Cowra. NSW
They were workers and made Australia great.     SUPPLY & DEMAND has been out of whack since and continues to be .
Real Estate cycles have fluctuated upwards since and will continue to do so .
Stick to the established Residential areas to avoid disasters like ( Glen Davis ) near Lithgow , which became a ghost town when the shale mines closed.
   The corridor Brisbane North to the Sunshine Coast is enjoying good times at the moment in QLD .   So I'll stop waiting for Rose Bay Sydney, to return to the prices japan had it at = all those years ago.


Posted By: Whale
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 9:09pm
Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

Would you be happy to put a $500k on a 12 month term deposit with the bank, and have them turn around after 6 months and say "Sorry, we won't be paying your interest anymore, oh, and we're keeping your money too!"

We're not a Utopian Socialist Society just yet Tlaz!Wink

A lot were talked into loans too large for them to service by unscrupulous banks and mortgage brokers and expenses and income were often falsified by the same vultures


Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 9:55pm
So True Whale ...    Probably caused the WFC really.

Australia may have been affected in a minor way but nothing like the USA & others.
   Many will struggle here even now without Interest rate rises.. The living costs ( energy , fuel etc ) will do the job too.


Posted By: Dr E
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 10:02pm
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

Would you be happy to put a $500k on a 12 month term deposit with the bank, and have them turn around after 6 months and say "Sorry, we won't be paying your interest anymore, oh, and we're keeping your money too!"

We're not a Utopian Socialist Society just yet Tlaz!Wink

A lot were talked into loans too large for them to service by unscrupulous banks and mortgage brokers and expenses and income were often falsified by the same vultures

hmmmm ... "a lot" you say! ... I suppose it would be silly to ask you to provide an example or a shred of detail or evidence to support that brain fart?LOL


-------------
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!


Posted By: Whale
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 10:21pm
Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

Would you be happy to put a $500k on a 12 month term deposit with the bank, and have them turn around after 6 months and say "Sorry, we won't be paying your interest anymore, oh, and we're keeping your money too!"

We're not a Utopian Socialist Society just yet Tlaz!Wink

A lot were talked into loans too large for them to service by unscrupulous banks and mortgage brokers and expenses and income were often falsified by the same vultures

hmmmm ... "a lot" you say! ... I suppose it would be silly to ask you to provide an example or a shred of detail or evidence to support that brain fart?LOL

Don't start your silly little word games, distracting from the argument by disputing minor points of phraseology etc, taught you that in debating school I guess

A significant enough number to be mentioned by the Royal Commission

And stick to topics you know something about, like Gai Waterhouse , then againLOL


Posted By: Dr E
Date Posted: 18 Sep 2018 at 11:28pm
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

Would you be happy to put a $500k on a 12 month term deposit with the bank, and have them turn around after 6 months and say "Sorry, we won't be paying your interest anymore, oh, and we're keeping your money too!"

We're not a Utopian Socialist Society just yet Tlaz!Wink

A lot were talked into loans too large for them to service by unscrupulous banks and mortgage brokers and expenses and income were often falsified by the same vultures

hmmmm ... "a lot" you say! ... I suppose it would be silly to ask you to provide an example or a shred of detail or evidence to support that brain fart?LOL

Don't start your silly little word games, distracting from the argument by disputing minor points of phraseology etc, taught you that in debating school I guess

A significant enough number to be mentioned by the Royal Commission

And stick to topics you know something about, like Gai Waterhouse , then againLOL
  
I would have accepted it if you had just said "personal experience" ... Wink

So of the > $2,600,000,000,000 in mortgage lending, how much is actually in default as a result of "alleged" predatory lending (remember, the greedy are most often lying "victims" too!Wink)?  

The fact is that there is very little evidence of people who were not greedy, borrowing more than they could afford, as a percentage of national mortgage loan debt ... even the RC has struggled to find the "victims" of "predatory lending" in any meaningful numbers ... I would hazard a guess at less than .00001%? ... whatever, rounded down it is ZERO ... and every one of then was in the process of either being prosecuted, or restitution granted ... we learned nothing!

... but it was the politicised $100 Million Banking Royal Commission that the ALP/Greens Collusion had to have - even though they voted against it more than 20 times!

It really hurt the banks too ... so they just put EVERYONE'S home loan interest rate up, just to cover the costs ... Thanks Bullgelati Bill ... Ooops!Embarrassed

Regardless of the regular FAKE NEWS media beat ups - thanks again "60 Minutes of Crap" - we have a strong and resilient property market, and it is thanks to our well regulated financial services industry. That is why our economy is so robust, and we are the envy of the world, and everyone wants to invest here and live here! Our current mortgage default rates are at a very healthy 1.54%, which is up from 1.48% from a year ago ... roughly when the Sydney property market peaked.  

But you will never hear that from the ABC, who will without any evidence tell you that ...
 

Up to 1 million households 'on the edge' of mortgage default by September, analyst warns

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-11/up-to-1-million-households-may-go-into-mortgage-default-by-sept/9976268

... more puerile, garbage and hysteria from lazy, out of touch, journalists pushing their left wing agenda, who couldn't get a job in the real world!Dead

Anyway, other than being argumentative, what was your point buddy?Big smile


-------------
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!


Posted By: Whale
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 7:43am
 I would hazard a guess at less than .00001%? 

Exactly, no substantiation but of course your guesses have validity unlike everyone else LOL

Deny the evidence of The Royal Commission, are you a banker Confused


Posted By: Passing Through
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 7:56am
Spell check ''Banker'' Whale?

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Only the best people.


Posted By: Whale
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 8:58am

This $618 million mansion in Hong Kong could break the record as the most expensive home ever sold in the world's most expensive housing market — and it's surprisingly modest


http://https://www.businessinsider.com.au/most-expensive-home-hong-kong-mansion-photos-2018-9" rel="nofollow - http://https://www.businessinsider.com.au/most-expensive-home-hong-kong-mansion-photos-2018-9


Posted By: Passing Through
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 8:59am
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/most-expensive-home-hong-kong-mansion-photos-2018-9" rel="nofollow - http://www.businessinsider.com.au/most-expensive-home-hong-kong-mansion-photos-2018-9

-------------
Only the best people.


Posted By: Whale
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 8:59am
http://https://www.businessinsider.com/hong-kong-most-expensive-city-in-world-apartment-picture-2018-4/?r=AU&IR=T" rel="nofollow - http://https://www.businessinsider.com/hong-kong-most-expensive-city-in-world-apartment-picture-2018-4/?r=AU&IR=T


Posted By: Mr Prospector
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 9:07am

Mortgage stress has risen as a new record high level of household debt against income is set across Australia, new data by research and analysis group Digital Finance Analytics shows.

The number of households at all levels of stress rose by 6000 in August to reach a total of 996,000 stressed households, according to DFA's analysis using 52,000 household surveys, public data from the Reserve Bank, APRA and ABS, as well as private data from lenders and mortgage aggregators.

The majority of households – just under 80 per cent of all households – are mildly stressed although the biggest group of severely stressed mortgage holders are exclusive professionals and mature stable families, DFA says.

Households are considered stressed when their cashflows cannot cover ongoing home ownership costs.Those who are mildly stressed have access to some emergency cash but those who are seriously stressed usually look to sell down quickly.


Recent (sept. 9th)  article in the Australian Financial Review . 



Posted By: Tlazolteotl
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 9:20am
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

http://https://www.businessinsider.com/hong-kong-most-expensive-city-in-world-apartment-picture-2018-4/?r=AU&IR=T" rel="nofollow - http://https://www.businessinsider.com/hong-kong-most-expensive-city-in-world-apartment-picture-2018-4/?r=AU&IR=T


Funny- the "general view of the HK skyline from the Peak" is nothing like the views from this particular house, which looks ordinary in the photos. Too many trees in the way.


-------------
"Two hundred years ago, 99.999 percent of human idiocy went unrecorded. Now we have the Internet."

Errol Morris


Posted By: Tlazolteotl
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 9:21am
Do they have bushfires in HK?


-------------
"Two hundred years ago, 99.999 percent of human idiocy went unrecorded. Now we have the Internet."

Errol Morris


Posted By: Passing Through
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 9:23am
Or bears?

-------------
Only the best people.


Posted By: Tlazolteotl
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 9:34am
For $618 million you'd think they would clean the pavers around the pool. They are filthy.


-------------
"Two hundred years ago, 99.999 percent of human idiocy went unrecorded. Now we have the Internet."

Errol Morris


Posted By: Dr E
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 11:24am
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:

 I would hazard a guess at less than .00001%? 

Exactly, no substantiation but of course your guesses have validity unlike everyone else LOL

Deny the evidence of The Royal Commission, are you a banker Confused

What evidence ...?

You're making up the story. 


-------------
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!


Posted By: Dr E
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 11:33am
Originally posted by Mr Prospector Mr Prospector wrote:

Mortgage stress has risen as a new record high level of household debt against income is set across Australia, new data by research and analysis group Digital Finance Analytics shows.

The number of households at all levels of stress rose by 6000 in August to reach a total of 996,000 stressed households, according to DFA's analysis using 52,000 household surveys, public data from the Reserve Bank, APRA and ABS, as well as private data from lenders and mortgage aggregators.

The majority of households – just under 80 per cent of all households – are mildly stressed although the biggest group of severely stressed mortgage holders are exclusive professionals and mature stable families, DFA says.

Households are considered stressed when their cashflows cannot cover ongoing home ownership costs.Those who are mildly stressed have access to some emergency cash but those who are seriously stressed usually look to sell down quickly.


Recent (sept. 9th)  article in the Australian Financial Review . 


AFR used to be a respected journal ... cut and paste from the ABC article I linked above - just lazy journalism - Digital "who"? - sells data on "Mortgage Stress" of all things - hard to peddle if there is none!Wink

Up to 1 million households 'on the edge' of mortgage default by September, analyst warns

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-07-11/up-to-1-million-households-may-go-into-mortgage-default-by-sept/9976268


-------------
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!


Posted By: Dr E
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 11:37am
Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

Spell check ''Banker'' Whale?

You'd be typical  Westpac bANKER ...Wink


-------------
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!


Posted By: Whale
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 1:33pm


http://www.businessinsider.com.au/sydney-property-market-price-forecast-2018-9" rel="nofollow - http://www.businessinsider.com.au/sydney-property-market-price-forecast-2018-9

The CBA thinks Sydney property values can fall 10%



Posted By: Whale
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 1:41pm

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/most-expensive-home-hong-kong-mansion-photos-2018-9" rel="nofollow - http://www.businessinsider.com.au/most-expensive-home-hong-kong-mansion-photos-2018-9


http://www.businessinsider.com/hong-kong-most-expensive-city-in-world-apartment-picture-2018-4/?r=AU&IR=T" rel="nofollow - http://www.businessinsider.com/hong-kong-most-expensive-city-in-world-apartment-picture-2018-4/?r=AU&IR=T


PT finally Thumbs Up  ( I hope Embarrassed )



Posted By: Passing Through
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 2:06pm
Clap

-------------
Only the best people.


Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 3:16pm
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:



http://www.businessinsider.com.au/sydney-property-market-price-forecast-2018-9" rel="nofollow - http://www.businessinsider.com.au/sydney-property-market-price-forecast-2018-9

<h1 ="first">The CBA thinks Sydney property values can fall 10%</h1>


Am I reading the graph wrong.   Highest prices 2009.

Prices in Sydney Melbourne especially have more than doubled since then.

How can prices come down with the flood of new settlers increasing demand ... Simple I would have thought.


Posted By: Whale
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 5:53pm
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:



http://www.businessinsider.com.au/sydney-property-market-price-forecast-2018-9" rel="nofollow - http://www.businessinsider.com.au/sydney-property-market-price-forecast-2018-9

<h1 ="first">The CBA thinks Sydney property values can fall 10%</h1>


Am I reading the graph wrong.   Highest prices 2009.

Prices in Sydney Melbourne especially have more than doubled since then.

How can prices come down with the flood of new settlers increasing demand ... Simple I would have thought.

Graph shows % change in prices, not actual prices


Posted By: maccamax
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 8:14pm
Thank you , I'm not the sharpest tool in the kit.

So hard to understand people doubting the solid Real Estate with our migration rates.
At this time , to encourage more Regional and outer Suburb construction , such things as deposits & grants are decided by post code.


Posted By: Dr E
Date Posted: 19 Sep 2018 at 11:17pm
Originally posted by Whale Whale wrote:



http://www.businessinsider.com.au/sydney-property-market-price-forecast-2018-9" rel="nofollow - http://www.businessinsider.com.au/sydney-property-market-price-forecast-2018-9

The CBA thinks Sydney property values can fall 10%


... 5% off the peak and so another 5% to come? ...  sounds feasible to me!

What do you think Whale? ... big difference between 45% and 5% ... which do you believe?Confused


-------------
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!


Posted By: Dr E
Date Posted: 24 Sep 2018 at 10:53pm

https://www.facebook.com/hotspotting/videos/2123808744547493/" rel="nofollow - https://www.facebook.com/hotspotting/videos/2123808744547493/


-------------
In reference to every post in the Trump thread ... "There may have been a tiny bit of license taken there" ... Ok, Thanks for the "heads up" PT!


Posted By: Whale
Date Posted: 24 Sep 2018 at 11:09pm
Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:


https://www.facebook.com/hotspotting/videos/2123808744547493/" rel="nofollow - https://www.facebook.com/hotspotting/videos/2123808744547493/

the sensationalist story was debunke on our wonderful ABC

http://www.iview.abc.net.au/show/media-watch" rel="nofollow - http://www.iview.abc.net.au/show/media-watch





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