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Predicting the speed of a race

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BROOKE View Drop Down
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    Posted: 27 May 2013 at 5:08pm
I believe that predicting the speed of a race is the biggest myth in racing.
The speed in which a race is run, is also the most important factor of a race.
Races can see horses have a 10 to 20 length turnaround, depending on if the race is run slowly or fast.
I believe Speed Maps are wrongly termed. They are Position maps.
You can only roughly predict the positioning of the field, from first to last.
But you cant predict the speed in which the race will be run.

I challenge anyone on here, that can successfully and REPEATEDLY predict the speed of any impending race.
Fast, Slow, or Even gallop.


If you can, you are a genius, and I want to be on every single race you can predict.
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bigal View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 May 2013 at 5:29pm
Originally posted by BROOKE BROOKE wrote:

I believe that predicting the speed of a race is the biggest myth in racing.
The speed in which a race is run, is also the most important factor of a race.
Races can see horses have a 10 to 20 length turnaround, depending on if the race is run slowly or fast.
I believe Speed Maps are wrongly termed. They are Position maps.
You can only roughly predict the positioning of the field, from first to last.
But you cant predict the speed in which the race will be run.

I challenge anyone on here, that can successfully and REPEATEDLY predict the speed of any impending race.
Fast, Slow, or Even gallop.


If you can, you are a genius, and I want to be on every single race you can predict.
 
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Punterforlife Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 May 2013 at 6:03pm
Brooke if you can work out a "position map" or have an idea of how many leaders are in race etc then you have a pretty good chance of predicting speed are you not? A great example was the 10,000 Saturday, everyone knew the speed would be hot because of the amount of leaders and on pace runners.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 May 2013 at 6:09pm
Originally posted by Punterforlife Punterforlife wrote:

Brooke if you can work out a "position map" or have an idea of how many leaders are in race etc then you have a pretty good chance of predicting speed are you not? A great example was the 10,000 Saturday, everyone knew the speed would be hot because of the amount of leaders and on pace runners.
 
punter for life.....GOOD LUCKEmbarrassed
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Browndog Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 May 2013 at 6:10pm
There are places that can provide pretty accurate metres/sec speed for horses at various stages of races. This along with barrier draws, normal racing patterns and track layouts can give you pretty accurate appraisals of speed in races
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 May 2013 at 6:17pm
Originally posted by Browndog Browndog wrote:

There are places that can provide pretty accurate metres/sec speed for horses at various stages of races. This along with barrier draws, normal racing patterns and track layouts can give you pretty accurate appraisals of speed in races
 
even more GOOD LUCK brown dog!!!EmbarrassedEmbarrassed
 
allan
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BROOKE Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 May 2013 at 7:28pm
So, plenty of people willing to predict the pace of a race.

You get 3 options

1: Slow ?
2: Even ?
3: Fast ?

You have to be able to do this repeatedly.

I dont buy that just because certain horses are going to lead, doesnt mean they are going to lead at a hectic pace. They can put the brakes on if they want. Afterall, if you are a leader, in the first 4, you do yourself favours by putting the brakes on.
How can you predict that?

Cmon, the challenge has been put forward to you.
Over the next week, you have to prove that you can pick the speed of multiple races.

1: slow
2: even
3: fast

I look forward to seeing who can prove the challenge.
5 out of 10, isnt enough. fail
You have to be able to succesfully predict around 7 or more out of every 10 you try.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Punterforlife Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 May 2013 at 7:29pm
I can predict greyhound speed...next race Fast one after that Fast one after that Fast Wink
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BROOKE Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 May 2013 at 7:30pm
So, plenty of people willing to predict the pace of a race.

You get 3 options

1: Slow ?
2: Even ?
3: Fast ?

You have to be able to do this repeatedly.

I dont buy that just because certain horses are going to lead, doesnt mean they are going to lead at a hectic pace. They can put the brakes on if they want. Afterall, if you are a leader, in the first 4, you do yourself favours by putting the brakes on.
How can you predict that?

Cmon, the challenge has been put forward to you.
Over the next week, you have to prove that you can pick the speed of multiple races.

1: slow
2: even
3: fast

I look forward to seeing who can prove the challenge.
5 out of 10, isnt enough. fail
You have to be able to succesfully predict around 7 or more out of every 10 you try.
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bigal View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 May 2013 at 9:15pm
Originally posted by BROOKE BROOKE wrote:

So, plenty of people willing to predict the pace of a race.

You get 3 options

1: Slow ?
2: Even ?
3: Fast ?

You have to be able to do this repeatedly.

I dont buy that just because certain horses are going to lead, doesnt mean they are going to lead at a hectic pace. They can put the brakes on if they want. Afterall, if you are a leader, in the first 4, you do yourself favours by putting the brakes on.
How can you predict that?

Cmon, the challenge has been put forward to you.
Over the next week, you have to prove that you can pick the speed of multiple races.

1: slow
2: even
3: fast

I look forward to seeing who can prove the challenge.
5 out of 10, isnt enough. fail
You have to be able to succesfully predict around 7 or more out of every 10 you try.
 
IF you had a taker!!!!....
 
how is it decided HOW THE RACE WAS ACTUALLY RUN???
 
say someone says that race 1 at geelong is going to be run at a fast pace..... how is it determined how the race was run?
 
BIG al
 
 
 
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Fiddlesticks View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Fiddlesticks Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 May 2013 at 10:37pm
This SHOULD be in the racing forum...why is it in the tipping forum..?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 May 2013 at 10:50pm
Originally posted by Fiddlesticks Fiddlesticks wrote:

This SHOULD be in the racing forum...why is it in the tipping forum..?


why are you a petty, nitpicking annoying twerp ?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Fiddlesticks Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 May 2013 at 11:05pm
More name calling whale...?

It should be in the racing forum because its a good tic and will be seen by more people...

You are way way to simple obviously to understand such a thing...poor you.
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* topic
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Whale Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 27 May 2013 at 11:24pm
Originally posted by Fiddlesticks Fiddlesticks wrote:

More name calling whale...?

It should be in the racing forum because its a good tic and will be seen by more people...

You are way way to simple obviously to understand such a thing...poor you.


Good point ,for once.
Unlike you I am happy to acknowledge good suggestions, whoever they come from
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BROOKE Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 May 2013 at 1:08am
This is, (and I dont say this coz I started the thread), THE most important factor of a race.
The pace of a race, determines results in often extreme ways.
Ask Maldivian,, Cox Plate.
Ask Green Moon, Melbourne Cup,
Hour after hour, day after day, the speed in which a race is run, truly determines who wins, and it can affect the results by up to 20 lengths.
Green Moon SMASHED Dunaden in the Melbourne Cup
Do you honestly think Green Moon is a dozen or more lengths better than Dunaden?
Of course not.
Dunaden is a world class stayer. As is Americain. But they got smashed.
The speed, and lack of it, smashed them
And the Cumani's knew it straight away too.
If a race isnt truly run, those upfront get it on a plate.
I guess this is why overseas, they have pacesetters. To make sure its a true staying test.

If you can honestly predict if an event will be slowly run, or run at a hot speed, then it makes you a tipping genius, and I for one would want to be on every single tip you make.
If you predict its slow, bet the front runners.
If you tip its fast, then back the swoopers.

It is above and beyond the most important factor of a race which determines results and greatly influences huge margins. And also sudden turnaround of margins. Losing by 15 lengths one week. Then winning by a big space the next week.

The challenge is here for anyone to predict the pace of a race.
Commentators and sectionals know the pace of a race. And those with a trained eye, can see if its being run fast, or a slow canter.
Its easy to see while its actually happening if its fast or slow.
The key is, knowing before the race.
I simply dont believe you can know, without insider information and contact with jockeys on the frontrunners.

Speed Maps are a farce. A myth. They are merely positioning maps. Can you predict position? Yes, for the most part the good judges can. But they cant predict the speed of each position.

This business about horses that lead, therefore means the race must be run at a solid tempo, is utter nonsense.
Frontrunners prefer to getaway with cheap slow sectionals. Its against their interest to go at a fast tempo, with swoopers ready to swallow them up.
You simply cant predict if the frontrunners will have the brakes on or not.

I welcome anyone who is up for the challenge to post their prediction of the races speed.

And I can tell you now, whoever is BEST at doing this, Im on your tips, everyday. Because its this person most likely to win more often.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 May 2013 at 12:31pm
Originally posted by bigal bigal wrote:

Originally posted by BROOKE BROOKE wrote:

So, plenty of people willing to predict the pace of a race.

You get 3 options

1: Slow ?
2: Even ?
3: Fast ?

You have to be able to do this repeatedly.

I dont buy that just because certain horses are going to lead, doesnt mean they are going to lead at a hectic pace. They can put the brakes on if they want. Afterall, if you are a leader, in the first 4, you do yourself favours by putting the brakes on.
How can you predict that?

Cmon, the challenge has been put forward to you.
Over the next week, you have to prove that you can pick the speed of multiple races.

1: slow
2: even
3: fast

I look forward to seeing who can prove the challenge.
5 out of 10, isnt enough. fail
You have to be able to succesfully predict around 7 or more out of every 10 you try.
 
IF you had a taker!!!!....
 
how is it decided HOW THE RACE WAS ACTUALLY RUN???
 
say someone says that race 1 at geelong is going to be run at a fast pace..... how is it determined how the race was run?
 
BIG al
 
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote HUSSLER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 May 2013 at 12:54pm
Gosford today 7 races, 7 run at slow pace
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote The Polar Bear Waltz Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 May 2013 at 1:14pm
I will have a go too and say that the 4 races (tatts) run at Newton Abbott tonight will all be run at a moderate tempo. Smile
Our strawberries seem to go best with manure on them.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 May 2013 at 1:21pm
Originally posted by The Polar Bear Waltz The Polar Bear Waltz wrote:

I will have a go too and say that the 4 races (tatts) run at Newton Abbott tonight will all be run at a moderate tempo. Smile
 
so here you go..... 4 races plus one from Hussler.....
 
so how is it determined how the race was ACTUALLY run???
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote waggamick Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 May 2013 at 1:30pm
Singapore races show the speed (kmh) for the first four runners as the race progresses.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BROOKE Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 May 2013 at 3:28pm
Big Al, are you telling us that you dont know if a race is being run fast or slow??
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote BROOKE Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 May 2013 at 3:29pm
Originally posted by HUSSLER HUSSLER wrote:

Gosford today 7 races, 7 run at slow pace


how did race 1 go? didnt see it.
and good luck Clap
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 May 2013 at 3:39pm
Originally posted by BROOKE BROOKE wrote:

Big Al, are you telling us that you dont know if a race is being run fast or slow??
 
 
yes i doWink.....
 
but I can see hiccups coming.....
 
Hussler says gosford race 7 will be run at a slow pace....when it runs..he says.... see... told you that it would be a slow paceBig smile. His interpretation is that it was run at a slow pace.
 
Then you come on and say.... that was not a slow pace at all....that was run at an even pace!!Big smile
 
See what I mean......
 
HOW is it determinedConfused
 
BIG al
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 May 2013 at 3:52pm
Originally posted by BROOKE BROOKE wrote:

Originally posted by HUSSLER HUSSLER wrote:

Gosford today 7 races, 7 run at slow pace


how did race 1 go? didnt see it.
and good luck Clap
 
stay schtum led throughout at a pretty good clip with zabeel gift keeping him honest....... I timed the race at about 66 seconds... last 600 in roughly 35 and a quarter, so not bad for a slow 7.
 
BIG al
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 May 2013 at 3:53pm
Originally posted by BROOKE BROOKE wrote:

Originally posted by HUSSLER HUSSLER wrote:

Gosford today 7 races, 7 run at slow pace


how did race 1 go? didnt see it.
and good luck Clap
 
stay schtum led throughout at a pretty good clip with zabeel gift keeping him honest....... I timed the race at about 66 seconds... last 600 in roughly 35 and a quarter eased down, so not bad for a slow 7.
 
BIG al
 
 
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Speed maps are one of my most vital bits of info. I use them all the time in helping to determine which horses I think are suited in a particular race. There are plenty of free speed maps available. Nobody can be absolutely certain how a race is going to be run, but you should have a fair idea before putting the hard earned on IMO.

Every man and his dog new that More Joyous would set the speed in the QE, and sprint for home in the straight. Making it a sprint home suited her more than the imports Americain and Manighar, and that is exactly what Rawiller did, it all worked to plan.

It doesn't always work, but I believe in speed maps, I use them, and think it gives me an advantage, I certainly wouldn't want to be punting without them, but each to their own.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bigal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 May 2013 at 4:08pm
Originally posted by bigal bigal wrote:

Originally posted by BROOKE BROOKE wrote:

Originally posted by HUSSLER HUSSLER wrote:

Gosford today 7 races, 7 run at slow pace


how did race 1 go? didnt see it.
and good luck Clap
 
stay schtum led throughout at a pretty good clip with zabeel gift keeping him honest....... I timed the race at about 66 seconds... last 600 in roughly 35 and a quarter eased down, so not bad for a slow 7.
 
BIG al
 
 
 
oopsEmbarrassed meant to type 36!! and a quarter.
 
BIG al
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Crash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 May 2013 at 4:37pm
The shorter the race the faster the speed LOL
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