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"Performance" versus "blood"?

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    Posted: 05 Jul 2007 at 5:48pm
Moving on from the question surrounding dosages and recognising that science has caught up with many of our old theories and guides that we have used in the past to assess likelihood of breeding/racecourse success and aptitude,
 
.. the question I now put forward has not necessarily been answered by science to the point where science possibly disputes it.
 
I'm sure this discussion has been had before.
 
As a breeder myself, I have always contended that superior genes/blood 'must' be carried via superior performers if they are to contribute their worth in the next 'generation'.
 
In other words, a stallion might be by Danehill out of Eight Carat but unless it showed well above average ability on the racetrack [even if it broke down prematurely] it is close to being a 99% chance of failure at stud.
 
Just in the same way that I will not breed from one of my race-fillies if she was patently slow, no matter how well bred she is.
 
What are your views?
 
GIVE IT A BREAK.
 
p.s. "impaired", "dissillusioned" and non constructive posters need not reply.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Bagman Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Jul 2007 at 5:59pm
Must have performed at 1600mts is my "impaired", and "dissillusioned" response.
Not interested in one dimensional squibs or 2400mtr/Derby or Cups winners. Just give me top quality runners over a mile that have sprinted well anyday thanks.
And before anyone starts, its just a personal and completly unfounded preference of mine. What's yours?
I don't have one
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Jul 2007 at 6:31pm
GIAB/Willy, Doesn't it all come back to opportunity, if a well bred but underperforming horse retires to stud he is not likely to get a great go at stud, however a well bred highly performed horse will get a good chance of doing himself proud at stud.
 
How would you rate stallions like Air De Francec ?


STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote holeyravioli Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Jul 2007 at 6:39pm
what do you do with your well bred,slow race fillys then GIAB?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Progold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Jul 2007 at 7:19pm
Doesn't your whole post involve an immense contradiction, GIAB?  Eight Carat herself being proof that your entire theory is one invented by you, for you, for purposes that only you know.
 
In any case, when genetic inheritance is random, surely a slow well bred horse has an equal chance of transmitting the same genes as a fast well bred horse?
 
Interpreting your limited understanding, you are saying that you know that fast horses possess the "fast horse" gene, so that is the only way that you can be certain that it can be transmitted.  There are so many flaws in this argument for any logical thinking person.
 
In particular there is the small issue of whether you believe that racing ability is a specifically inheritted genetic trait, a question whose answer would no doubt alter any thinking on the topic.  willy will no doubt be able to supply proof of his position on this matter.
 
Once again, willy, it is time to actually answer some questions that you continually avoid.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Flight Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Jul 2007 at 9:08pm
Originally posted by Bagman Bagman wrote:

Must have performed at 1600mts is my "impaired", and "dissillusioned" response.
Not interested in one dimensional squibs or 2400mtr/Derby or Cups winners. Just give me top quality runners over a mile that have sprinted well anyday thanks.
And before anyone starts, its just a personal and completly unfounded preference of mine. What's yours?
 
You're not on your own there Bagman.
 
This view is also shared by William S Farish and he has bred some outstanding horses.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Give it a break Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Jul 2007 at 9:18pm
Very good point Djebel and one that I have continually observed over the years in coming to my "unscientific" conclusion.
 
Yes, sires like Air De France, Kreisler and a few others. Good blood, moderate or nil performers but did an okay job off lower mare opportunity.
 
No doubt an exception to the "rule" when fair consideration is made for mare opportunity and I sometimes wonder whether they fall into the category where, while in training, they carried injuries or constricting ailments which not only prevented them from performing better, but they were "constrictions" not genetically 'carried'.
 
If you go through old sires books you will find very few "Kreislers" and even after taking into account the first & second damsires of the better winners, very very seldom will you find them performing above their own racetrack performances as sires.
 
A bit like brothers of our top stallions of the past. Danehill a classic example.
 
The best performers, even after taking account of mare opportunity, 90% of the time turn out to be the best sires.
 
GIVE IT A BREAK.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Give it a break Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Jul 2007 at 9:24pm
Originally posted by Progold Progold wrote:

Doesn't your whole post involve an immense contradiction, GIAB?  Eight Carat herself being proof that your entire theory is one invented by you, for you, for purposes that only you know.
 
In any case, when genetic inheritance is random, surely a slow well bred horse has an equal chance of transmitting the same genes as a fast well bred horse?
 
Interpreting your limited understanding, you are saying that you know that fast horses possess the "fast horse" gene, so that is the only way that you can be certain that it can be transmitted.  There are so many flaws in this argument for any logical thinking person.
 
In particular there is the small issue of whether you believe that racing ability is a specifically inheritted genetic trait, a question whose answer would no doubt alter any thinking on the topic.  willy will no doubt be able to supply proof of his position on this matter.
 
Once again, willy, it is time to actually answer some questions that you continually avoid.
 
I think that even Willy would be shaking his head at you Progold.
 
The reason I won't breed from a racefilly that was dead set slow in training is because on the laws of averages she will contribute "on average" 50% of her own ability.
 
Sure, in some matings I might 'get lucky' and the sibling might throw 95% to the old man.
 
Unfortunately, those are not the odds for me. I want better.
 
GIVE IT A BREAK.
 
p.s. Holey, my duds are normally given to the recreational people, if their temperament is okay.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Progold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Jul 2007 at 9:39pm
What about Eight Carat willy - the dam of the horse you want to breed from in your post.  Unplaced from 5 starts and little rumour of any ability at all.
 
Do you believe in a law of averages in racehorses?  Isn't this saying a 50% contibution because that is what the law of averages says in terms of genetic inheritance?  Haven't you just tried to accuse everyone else of saying this when you are now the one that actually believes it?

Do you really not see the contradictions in your posts?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Give it a break Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jul 2007 at 3:14am

To the contrary Progold.

As I've just stated above, exceptions are exceptions and not the "rule" to the point where we have to wonder whether these exceptions were in fact limited as to racecourse performance because of injuries or other they may have carried.
 
Just as I breed from 2 non-winning mares that showed ability well above average ability, but for different reasons did not get to achieve the level they had shown.
 
Eight Carat herself is in fact quite interesting outside the discussion at hand because she herself was not that "blue" in the "blood".
 
That aside, tell us how your dosage "theory" deals with these poor performed, well related progenators.
 
In other words, do your funny little numbers assess a 5 times Group 1 horse as an "equal" chance at stud [as to class & aptitude] as his slomo full brother?
 
GIVE IT A BREAK.
 
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pihanga Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jul 2007 at 3:14am
p hogan bought eight carat for 800,000 due to foal to danzatore from robert sangster for the cambridge breeding partnership

i know i wrote the prospectus for it

he bought her for two reasons

he knew how fast diamond lover (subsequent gr1 railway winner) was and he rated habibti the fastest mare ever to come out of europe
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pihanga Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jul 2007 at 3:21am
i'm sorry progold i love your work but this isnt really goin to help

check out

http://www.pedigreequery.com/habibti

she has a full brother top line royal charger

and a full sister bottom line tessa gillian

royal charger
1st Queen Anne S. (ENG), Challenge S. (GB), Ayr Gold C. (ENG).
2nd Stewards' Cup H. (ENG), Duke Of York S. (ENG).
3rd King's Stand S. (ENG),2000 Guineas (ENG)

Sent to USA. Died 11/1961. His $10,000 stud fee was the largest breeding fee through his time.

tessa gillian, a huge dosage and influential mare

TESSA GILLIAN (GB) b. F, 1950 DP = 12-14-16-4-14 (60) DI = 1.31   CD = 0.10 - 9 Starts, 5 Wins, 3 Places, 0 Shows Career Earnings: Pds 6,061 win only     
Winnings: 9 Starts: 5 - 3 - 0, Pds 6,061 win only

1st Hopeful S. (GB), Molecomb S. (GB), Prince of Wales's S., Katheryn Howard S. 2nd One Thousand Guineas (GB-G1), Coronation S. (GB-G1), Cheverley Park S. (GB-G2).

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pihanga Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jul 2007 at 3:28am
as adam sangster will tell you hogan bullsh*tted robert that eight carat hadnt yet foaled, yet there on the ground, on cambridge stud, at the time of the deal was a colt with four legs

the colt was sold for 380,000 to john stubbs for a partnership incl sir m fay and pihanga

i named it carbonfibre after fay's america's cup jaunts

it broke a pedal bone and hogan sent it to the far northern territory where it has left the odd winner

it was the only foal she left not to be a star

in 1990 after i had left mikey fays shop joe walls valued eight carat at 80,000

which is what hogan paid the cambridge breeding partnership for her

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote holeyravioli Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jul 2007 at 3:32am
Originally posted by Pihanga Pihanga wrote:

p hogan bought eight carat for 800,000 due to foal to danzatore from robert sangster for the cambridge breeding partnership

i know i wrote the prospectus for it

he bought her for two reasons

he knew how fast diamond lover (subsequent gr1 railway winner) was and he rated habibti the fastest mare ever to come out of europe
 
if in fact you 'wrote the prospectus' for IT..you are a party to ONE OF the biggest bloodstock frauds in Australasian history...refer to Tony Molloy Q.C.(1 STORY HAS THE PURCHASE FROM SANGSTER AT WAY LESS)..DL..was very 'lucky' to win the Railway..no weight and a race astute breeders identified as a 'soft' Grp 1 win!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pihanga Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jul 2007 at 3:35am
not true you are confusing the rorts I have described above with those pulled by lawyers russell mcveagh who put together the buckingham partnerships etc

re diamond lover

aussie were lucky to win the rugby on saturday

alinghi is lucky it still has the cup

but check the score card

those wins are still in there

and, she was fast
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Progold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jul 2007 at 3:37am
Sorry people
 
This is willy's post
 
As a breeder myself, I have always contended that superior genes/blood 'must' be carried via superior performers if they are to contribute their worth in the next 'generation'.
 
Eight Carat, however well related she was, was in no way a superior performer.  She was unplaced from 5 starts.  willy/julie would discard her so there would be no any stallion by Danehill out of Eight Carat as Eight Carat was destined to be a flop according to the stated breeding rules.  These rules are very clear.  The word is MUST, not sometimes, not maybe, not in certain circumstances but MUST be a superior performer so for willy to breed from Eight Carat she MUST be a superior performer on the track.  She wasn't so the line ends there.  END OF WILLY'S MISGUIDED NOTION. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pihanga Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jul 2007 at 3:41am
yes MUST is a word you must not use around horses
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote holeyravioli Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jul 2007 at 3:41am

I See the 'difference'..a 'typo'...NOT $800,000...$80,000!Wink

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Give it a break Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jul 2007 at 3:47am

Not so Progold.

If you were half a horseman you would well know that many horses will not reach their natural ability potential on the racetrack because of "constricting" ailments or other.
 
Sure, you live in a cacooned world of numbers where these realities are not understood or taken account of, but they are real.
 
I have well explained that.
 
But just like the fact that each conception is "totally random", you still live in denial.
 
GIVE IT A BREAK.
 
p.s. thanks Pihanga. A very interesting insight into Eight Carat. Didn't surprise me.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Progold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jul 2007 at 3:55am
Carbonfibre stands in Marburg in Queensland.
 
Why are you thanking Pihanga, willy?
 
This is your statement
 
Eight Carat herself is in fact quite interesting outside the discussion at hand because she herself was not that "blue" in the "blood".
 
I think Pihanga showed that your statement was a bit on the false side.  Now you are claiming that Eight Carat did not reach her natural ability potential on the racetrack because of "constricting" ailments or other.
 
I think I must be living in Bizarro world.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pihanga Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jul 2007 at 3:57am
Originally posted by holeyravioli holeyravioli wrote:

..DL..was very 'lucky' to win the Railway..no weight and a race astute breeders identified as a 'soft' Grp 1 win!


1-13, AUCK, 01 Jan 1987, $102,000, $64,500, C1, 1200m, Good, 1.07.73, Flat
Grant Cooksley Wgt 51.5 Car 51.8 LWD 49.0, 1/1
2: Courier Bay, 53.5 3: High Regards, 53.5; 1/2 LEN:3/4 LEN

I dont think any horse has run that time at ellerslie in a gr1 since

the two she beat were no slugs

high regards has left her mark in the paddock

and courier bay was same age male so she was entitled to a 2 kg pull at wfa and she used only 1.7kg of it

courier bay won 17 incl the following gr 1's

1-10, WELL, 17 Jan 1987, $100,000, $62,500, C1, 1200m, Good, 1.07.45, Flat
David Walsh Wgt 54.5 Car 54.5 LWD 48.0, 2/2
2: Kosha, 57.0 3: Knight Invader, 50.0; 1 1/4 LEN:1 LEN

that one franked the railway form and time, and so did this


1-15, WAIK, 10 Feb 1987, $98,000, $63,000, WFA, 1400m, Good, 1.20.73, Flat
David Walsh Wgt 57.0 Car 57.0 LWD 51.5, 3/2
2: Arctic Wolf, 53.3 3: Tidal Light, 51.5; LONG NECK:1 1/4 LEN

and this

1-13, WELL, 23 Jan 1988, $100,000, $62,500, C1, 1200m, Good, 1.07.45, Flat
David Walsh Wgt 58.0 Car 58.0 LWD 47.0, 1/1
2: Sirstaci, 49.5 3: Squire Gray, 47.5; 4 LEN:1/2 NECK


and two years later in the railway he was 4th in same race behind the horse dave o'sullivan rated the best he had trained ---giving away quite a bit more weight

4-14, AUCK, 02 Jan 1989, $150,000, $7,500, C1, 1200m, Dead, 1.10.57, Flat
Michael Coleman Wgt 59.0 Car 59.0 LWD 47.0, 1/1
1: Mr Tiz (AUS), 48.5 1: Westminster, 54.5; DEAD HEAT:4 1/4 LEN

to quote alexander pope, mr break, a little learning is a dangerous thing
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Give it a break Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jul 2007 at 4:13am
Originally posted by Progold Progold wrote:

Carbonfibre stands in Marburg in Queensland.
 
Why are you thanking Pihanga, willy?
 
This is your statement
 
Eight Carat herself is in fact quite interesting outside the discussion at hand because she herself was not that "blue" in the "blood".
 
I think Pihanga showed that your statement was a bit on the false side.  Now you are claiming that Eight Carat did not reach her natural ability potential on the racetrack because of "constricting" ailments or other.
 
I think I must be living in Bizarro world.
 
Dear Progold.
 
 
You may not have realised that Eight Carat was by Pieces Of Eight which did not stand in "bizarro" world.
 
Just as many "superior" racehorses have not performed to their ability on the track because of muscle or back strains, fractures unseen etc.
 
Undertake a mathematics course and then spend a few months in a stable to understand these real world factors to possibly explain the few exceptions.
 
Then try to rebuild your dosages around something that might not only satisfy science, but also the complexity of animals, different training approaches, surfaces etc.
 
GIVE IT A BREAK.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote holeyravioli Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jul 2007 at 4:22am
Westminster thrashed her ..gave the best sprinter Dave O has ever trained  a serve at the weights,(D.H )in the RAILWAY and won the Ampol,Feehan ,Manikato in OZ ,and ran  3RD in the Gadseden St....and as a broodmare sire is running 2.4 %..and the best is yet to come!.
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http://www.pedigreequery.com/pieces+of+eight

im glad u mentioned po8 mr break

his grand sire war relic (by man of war of seabiscuit fame) has a really interesting duplication of fairy gold and rock sand

      Owner: August Belmont II
Winnings: 10 Starts: 3 - 1 - 0

At 2: Won Woodcote S., 2nd Flying H. (Newmarket).; At 3: Won Welter H.

Won 2 of 4 juvenile starts. She produced the Ascot Gold Vase winner Golden Measure and the excellent producer St. Lucre in England but was sold for 3600 guineas to August Belmont II in 1903, who sent the mare to his Nursery Stud in Kentucky, USA. For Belmont, she produced the great sire Fair Play. Died 1919.


ROCK SAND   (GB) br. H, 1900 DP = 0-0-0-0-0 (0) DI = Inf   CD = Inf - 20 Starts, 16 Wins, 1 Places, 3 Shows Career Earnings: 45,618/~$238,900     
      Owner: Sir James Miller/August Belmont II
    Breeder: Sir James Miller
Winnings: 20 Starts: 16 - 1 - 3, 45,618/~$238,900

At 2: Won Woodcote S. (GB), Coventry S. (GB), Champagne S. (GB), Dewhurst Plate (GB), Chesterfield S. (GB).
3rd Middle Park S. (GB). At 3: Won 2000 Guineas (GB), Derby Stakes (GB), (Epsom Derby, in 2 mins 42-4/5 secs for the 12 furlongs), St. Leger S. (GB), St. James's Palace S. (GB), Bennington S. (GB).

3rd Eclipse S. (GB). At 4: Won Hardwicke S. (GB).

Winner of the English Triple Crown in 1903.
Stood at the Hamilton Stud Farm 1903 - 1905. Sold to August Belmont II for 25,000 and sent to USA to use at stud. Damsire of Man O'War (Mahubah). 1912 sent to France. Died on July 20, 1914.

rock sand has 3 lines of stockwell at the third generation, one son and 2 daughters, giving him 4 lines of the fabulous pochohontas

POCAHONTAS (GB) b. M, 1837 DP = 0-0-0-0-0 (0) DI = Inf   CD = Inf - 9 Starts, 0 Wins, 3 Places, 2 Shows     
      Owner: Rownlow Cecil, (11th) Earl of Exeter
    Breeder: Sir Tatton Sykes

Believed to have carried the gene for large hearts, which she inherited from several descendants of Eclipse and passed on to her son Stockwell (who was a SW and Champion sire).
http://www.tbheritage.com/Portraits/Pocahontas.html
Died in 1870.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote take2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jul 2007 at 6:26am
Originally posted by Give it a break Give it a break wrote:

Originally posted by Progold Progold wrote:

Carbonfibre stands in Marburg in Queensland.
 
Why are you thanking Pihanga, willy?
 
This is your statement
 
Eight Carat herself is in fact quite interesting outside the discussion at hand because she herself was not that "blue" in the "blood".
 
I think Pihanga showed that your statement was a bit on the false side.  Now you are claiming that Eight Carat did not reach her natural ability potential on the racetrack because of "constricting" ailments or other.
 
I think I must be living in Bizarro world.
 
Dear Progold.
 
 
You may not have realised that Eight Carat was by Pieces Of Eight which did not stand in "bizarro" world.
 
Just as many "superior" racehorses have not performed to their ability on the track because of muscle or back strains, fractures unseen etc.
 
Undertake a mathematics course and then spend a few months in a stable to understand these real world factors to possibly explain the few exceptions.
 
Then try to rebuild your dosages around something that might not only satisfy science, but also the complexity of animals, different training approaches, surfaces etc.
 
GIVE IT A BREAK.
 
 
yes but dont go acknoiwledging the fact that peruzzii may not have been tried at her best distance you fool of fools
dont put mouth in gear before engaging brain

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote take2 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jul 2007 at 6:38am
Originally posted by Progold Progold wrote:

What about Eight Carat willy - the dam of the horse you want to breed from in your post.  Unplaced from 5 starts and little rumour of any ability at all.
 
Do you believe in a law of averages in racehorses?  Isn't this saying a 50% contibution because that is what the law of averages says in terms of genetic inheritance?  Haven't you just tried to accuse everyone else of saying this when you are now the one that actually believes it?

Do you really not see the contradictions in your posts?
 
your astute observations quite right progold
 
the loon is clearly out of his depth
dont put mouth in gear before engaging brain

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Yalden Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jul 2007 at 3:55pm
Originally posted by Give it a break Give it a break wrote:

Moving on from the question surrounding dosages and recognising that science has caught up with many of our old theories and guides that we have used in the past to assess likelihood of breeding/racecourse success and aptitude,
 
.. the question I now put forward has not necessarily been answered by science to the point where science possibly disputes it.
 
I'm sure this discussion has been had before.
 
As a breeder myself, I have always contended that superior genes/blood 'must' be carried via superior performers if they are to contribute their worth in the next 'generation'.
 
In other words, a stallion might be by Danehill out of Eight Carat but unless it showed well above average ability on the racetrack [even if it broke down prematurely] it is close to being a 99% chance of failure at stud.
 
Just in the same way that I will not breed from one of my race-fillies if she was patently slow, no matter how well bred she is.
 
What are your views?
 
GIVE IT A BREAK.
 
p.s. "impaired", "dissillusioned" and non constructive posters need not reply.
 
I brought a filly from the mighty Belle family and broke it in, I only rode her once on the track and could not jump off quick enough.  the very next day I sold her....... She was ok and every thing, but did not have that special feeling a good rider knows.
She never got to races....so I would have to agree with you Willy....I would and will not breed from a Mare that had not shown above avg racing ability.
 
If you don't try, you will always wonder, "What if I had"
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