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O'Reilly broodmare

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Progold View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Progold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jun 2017 at 1:14pm
It seems that we have come around in a circle, and are now at a breed to race scenario.  This is fine, as we need to keep appraising our expectations which can sometimes be unrealistic.  However, I would urge a re-read of where we have been.  HRE represents an option that revolves around his supposed appeal to the HK market.  There is little, if any, discussion on the prospect of this mating producing an above average galloper, so it seems to be at odds with your aims.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tuddy7272 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jun 2017 at 10:40pm
Progold, I agree I have come full circle. I am a relative novice at this caper but the more research I do the more I am leaning toward the breeding to race option. The reason I say this is the market is primarily focused on breeding 2YO speed horses and my mare clearly doesn't have the race record or pedigree to justify a substantial outlay on a service of say $30k or upwards. Other than her grand dam Sahrhys, there is no 2YO form to speak of. Her weanling filly by Bradbury's Luck has thrown very much to the dams side so i don't expect to see her at the races as a 2YO. If that were to continue, let's say $30k for a Star Witness a service fee plus $30k costs to get her to the sales plus sales commissions etc I need $70k just to get square. I'm not convinced I would get $70k for a yearling that doesnt look like it will be precocious.

I don't want to go to another stallion that is at his first season at stud or a stallion that hasn't had runners yet as the mare is already in foal to Rich Enuff so I have been down that path and I just dont want to keep punting on young stallions as there are so many of them these days that plenty will fail. Rich Enuff could be one of them for all i know.

Rather than follow the herd and breed for 2YO speedsters, I think from here on in I will go in the opposite direction as I cant compete with the big boys with my mare. So i think i will go down the breed to race path i will try to breed speed into her stamina pedigree.

I like HRE as a stallion and he has been successful in Europe getting 2YO's, sprinters and stayers and his record in Hong Kong speaks for itself. He looks to be able to get runners from multiple female families and interestingly there is limited in-breeding in his best progeny. I also think he will suit her by type as he is not overly tall and she is a big, long, rangey mare. And for $10k there is minimal risk and there is no pressure to get the resulting foal to the races early given the minimal outlay. And if i get a cracking sort there may be an option to sell in any case.

This is not an exact science but everything I look at is leading me down the breed to race path and hopefully i can get a runner or two with her early foals.

Fingers crossed


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Progold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Jun 2017 at 11:59pm
Not sure that HRE fits my idea of a breed to race stallion in this instance without a significant pedigree compatibility to go along with the mating.  HRE sits currently at number 91 on the Sires Table and if you take out his main earner in Sheidel, he is barely within the top 200 sires.  Most of his HK runners are from his NH crops, and as we know, shuttle crops are another story altogether.  My idea of a breed to race stallion is a mating that is pursued with a high probability of producing a quality, or at least winning, racehorse without consideration of the stallion's lower service fee.  There is never anything wrong with the idea of breeding a winning racehorse.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Cityboy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jun 2017 at 10:52am
Regardless of whether HRE is the right stallion, I like that you've now gone away from the plan of breeding a horse for the sale ring despite being not particularly keen on the mating yourself.
I've tried breeding for the sale ring with matings I didn't especially like a few times, and for a variety of the usual uncontrollable reasons I haven't been able to sell the resultant foal only to be left with a horse I didn't especially want.
So my suggestion is to prioritise breeding a horse you think has the best chance of being a good racehorse and make the commercial considerations secondary because there's always a real chance that you'll end up racing it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tuddy7272 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jun 2017 at 12:27pm
Thanks for the comments Cityboy. Yes I see that as being one of the major risks, breeding one for the sales ring that you don't particularly like and end up being stuck with it for whatever reason. 
I'm not set in stone on HRE yet and am currently having a deeper look into Xtravagant as was suggested in an earlier post. The Pentire / Last Tycoon nick works, he's relatively inexpensive and it gives me a chance to try to breed a stayer. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mumtaz Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Jun 2017 at 3:37pm
I am biased in favour of HRE as I had arranged to send a mare to him last year.  Unfortunately the mare foaled too late for him as he left the country, and so she went to Domesday instead.

According to this year's Queensland Stallions he is sitting on 65% winners:runners and 6% SW - unusually high for Australia.  Whilst he is low on the sires earning tables this year, the main reason is that as per the ASB website, he did not cover any mares in Australia for 4x years - 2011-2014, so there are no 2-5 YO's racing for him.  So he is performing well in these circumstances.

As he is small, there is a risk with the breed to sell.  However I think he is one of the best breed to race's there are.  Unfortunately, apart from my late foaling younger mares, my better mares are too old for him given his not so brilliant fertility records.  For someone with a young, fertile and promising mare with a bit of size, I cannot think of a better stallion (allowing for pedigree matching).
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Progold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jun 2017 at 11:55am
Fair point re his missing crops and I did not realise HRE spent so many seasons away from Australia.  This is a question though that must be asked.  Why did he not return for so long?   HRE was a champion 2yo in France, and stood his first seasons at Coolmore for $40k so he had more than his share of opportunity.

It is often misleading to compare international crops.  HRE might have 6% SW but should we question the value of some of the black type his progeny have earned.  With over 330 live foals of racing age in Australia, there have been only 12 I can find that have won stakes races anywhere in the world.  Around 50 were sent overseas, but some like Mongolian Khan returned here to race.  Most of his best HK runners have been from his NH crops.  I do not know how many of his internationally bred horses have raced here, although Duca Valentinois is one of these that have won a stakes race here.  I have it in the back of my mind that one of his sons might have come over for a Melbourne Cup or the like, but I could easily be mistaken. 

A big question is what do we mean by breed to race?  Clearly a notion that his size is a risk in the sales ring means that he is being considered as something else.  By breed to race, I am not considering the prospect of racing them personally if you can't sell them.  That is a whole different concept.

He still does not fit with my notion of a breed to race stallion.  Given that he has not had a locally bred runner born since 2010, do we immediately assume that he will produce similar quality horses as when he was first here? 

It is probably fair to say that the quality of mares he has covered this time is vastly inferior to those he covered the first time around.  There is a very long history of stallions with rapid decline in performance following relocation, so had HRE moved simply from NSW to QLD, it would have raised issues.  Do we consider that the quality of a stallion declines with age?  Is it more apt to consider HRE as a first season sire in terms of performance when looking at racing ability of his new local crops? There already are a lot of variables in thoroughbred breeding, so it is my view that when breeding to race, we should be trying to remove as many of these as we can. 

Or alternatively, does a stallion become a breed to race prospect simply because they are not commercial?  Again, this notion represents an interesting distinction between stallion and mare, but that is certainly for another time.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shrunk in the Wash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jun 2017 at 2:13pm
If you're looking to get away from the fascination with 2yo speed. What about a stallion like Shocking?
I looked at him some time back with a mare I had

I read somewhere that Danehill has had some good success with with Street Cry and as such he goes well with O'Reilly mares
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shrunk in the Wash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jun 2017 at 2:15pm
Originally posted by Shrunk in the Wash Shrunk in the Wash wrote:



I read somewhere that Danehill has had some good success with with Street Cry and as such he goes well with O'Reilly mares



NowI remember, It's on his website
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote bradjm Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jun 2017 at 4:48pm
When I think breed to race I think of a stallion that is capable of getting group performers and stands below 10k

As opposed to a stallion not capable of getting group performers that stands below 10k

There aren't many that fit the bill, anywhere.

Aquis have two.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mumtaz Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jun 2017 at 6:02pm
My definition of "breed to race" matches Bradjm's.  I also pray I can make some money in the sale ring with these stallions, but intend to use my reserve if required.  The intention is to upgrade young mares and give them the start to make them commercial (and to not blow the budget).

I agree that most of HRE's better progeny are from NH mares but Sheidel and Mongolian Khan are from Australasian mares. He has spent more time covering outside Australia and the Europeans had more opportunity to observe what he works best with.  His Australian stud record, according to Queensland Stallions, is 136:211 winners to runners ie 64.45% which matches his overall w:r figures of 65% pretty well.  So given that no sire in that price range is perfect, he comes pretty close to optimal; albeit with some risk.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Progold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jun 2017 at 6:19pm
So in Qld stallions like Over, Warhead, and Jet Spur fit the bill, but Show A Heart and Real Saga do not?

A comment about making money off the progeny means that it isn't a breed to race proposition at all.  It is a "I will race it if if I can't sell it" option.

I think this probably shows that "breed to race" is just another throw away line that breeders use to support whatever particular decision they want to justify.

Incidentally, many of the world's great breeders like the Aga Khan and Tesio only ever bred to race.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bradjm Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jun 2017 at 10:26pm
Originally posted by Progold Progold wrote:

So in Qld stallions like Over, Warhead, and Jet Spur fit the bill, but Show A Heart and Real Saga do not?

A comment about making money off the progeny means that it isn't a breed to race proposition at all.  It is a "I will race it if if I can't sell it" option.

I think this probably shows that "breed to race" is just another throw away line that breeders use to support whatever particular decision they want to justify.

Incidentally, many of the world's great breeders like the Aga Khan and Tesio only ever bred to race.


How many group performers have warhead and over produced ?

Jet spur goes ok for metro performers but hasn't sired a group one winner

Of course most of Domesday and hre's progeny have had to perform in Sydney and Melbourne, much tougher than Brisbane.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Progold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jun 2017 at 12:06pm
I wasn't aware of the rules regarding the number of group performers/G1 winners.  My suspicion is that the rules for a stallion are probably a bit fluid.  Do they include things like opportunity?  Surely service fees and even mare numbers would be part of the equation?  Similarly, the notion of a stallion relocating may be important.  I would guess that standing at Coolmore and Darley would give a stallion a bit of a boost in opportunity.  Location is another thing because the local mare population, and I know it is far more fluid than it was, should be considered.  A stallion covering a lot of Danehill mares might be expected to get better results than a stallion covering a lot of Sequalo mares.

I almost get the impression that the stallion is all important in this breeding caper.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bradjm Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jun 2017 at 4:44pm
Ok to save the semantics how about I just say more than one group winner and preferably a couple of group one winners.

Fluid rules aside it's pretty easy to see Domesday is a much better stallion than warhead or jetspur
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote furious Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jun 2017 at 4:47pm
You've also got to see the mares offered to some of the stallions at Darley or Coolmore.  They don't all get the cream.  Some just go to stud as better racehorses and see better mare no matter which stud or state they start in.  Others fall through the cracks even at the big studs.  Too many good stallions to compete with.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jun 2017 at 6:31pm
Originally posted by bradjm bradjm wrote:

When I think breed to race I think of a stallion that is capable of getting group performers and stands below 10k

As opposed to a stallion not capable of getting group performers that stands below 10k

There aren't many that fit the bill, anywhere.

Aquis have two.

Have you given any thought to Complacent bradjm, could have been special imo, fee is
$5000 LFG, Waikato district Mapperly Stud, both SYT and IADD were bred there, can
imagine a patient owner leaving the mare to foal and raised there on the " blue grass" .
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Progold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jun 2017 at 7:13pm
Just a reminder how we got here.  The mare has a half sibling that has performed well in Hong Kong.  The stallion has had some success in HK, almost exclusively through his NH crops.

Breeding to race from this combination is a recipe for disaster for most.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Shrunk in the Wash Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jun 2017 at 8:10pm
Originally posted by Carioca Carioca wrote:

Originally posted by bradjm bradjm wrote:

When I think breed to race I think of a stallion that is capable of getting group performers and stands below 10k

As opposed to a stallion not capable of getting group performers that stands below 10k

There aren't many that fit the bill, anywhere.

Aquis have two.

Have you given any thought to Complacent bradjm, could have been special imo, fee is
$5000 LFG, Waikato district Mapperly Stud, both SYT and IADD were bred there, can
imagine a patient owner leaving the mare to foal and raised there on the " blue grass" .



Complacent Was an absolute star. If he was in OZ I would buy a mare to send to him
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bradjm Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Jun 2017 at 12:42am
Originally posted by Progold Progold wrote:

Just a reminder how we got here.  The mare has a half sibling that has performed well in Hong Kong.  The stallion has had some success in HK, almost exclusively through his NH crops.

Breeding to race from this combination is a recipe for disaster for most.


Hre sh crops

211 runners 136 winners 9 stakes winners

You could do plenty worse at twice his price.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mumtaz Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Jun 2017 at 1:28pm
With regards to HRE's Australian performers in Hong Kong, there is the recent G3 winner Lucky Year who so far has won 8 races in Hong Kong and over $10m in Hong Kong dollars.  Whilst his dam and grand dam were good city winners there are no actual SWs in the first 3x generations.  Grand dam did produce 3x stakes placegetters.

I pay close attention to Lucky Year as the mare I sent to Aquis last year is a half sister to his dam.  I too was aiming for the Hong Kong market last year, but actually was quite relieved to send the mare to Domesday once HRE had left as I much prefer the Domesday/Untouchable cross anyway (but it is nowhere near as attractive for the Hong Kong market as a 3/4 to Lucky Year would have been).
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MichaelM Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Jun 2017 at 2:49pm
The Hong Kong market is a strange one to try and specifically target as a breeder.  They usually only shop at the 100k+ end of the market and only at the major sales.  Then if you're going to sell the horse to them as a tried horse or trialler, they don't really care if it is by either Fastnet Rock or Porky Pig as long as it can run.

I don't envisage the Hong Kong buyers rocking up to the QTIS Sale in 2019 en masse.  That is where the majority of breeders will be selling their yearlings by him unless I am mistaken.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Stallions Inc Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Jun 2017 at 5:34pm
Originally posted by MichaelM MichaelM wrote:

The Hong Kong market is a strange one to try and specifically target as a breeder.  They usually only shop at the 100k+ end of the market and only at the major sales.  Then if you're going to sell the horse to them as a tried horse or trialler, they don't really care if it is by either Fastnet Rock or Porky Pig as long as it can run.

I don't envisage the Hong Kong buyers rocking up to the QTIS Sale in 2019 en masse.  That is where the majority of breeders will be selling their yearlings by him unless I am mistaken.

Very sensible, logical approach Michael.

I think breeders can over complicate things and progold is on the money here- breed to produce a racehorse and everything else will fall in line. Breeding to sell, breeding to race? It's all strange.

The quality of your mare decides your stallion budget. Then within that budget choose the most suitable match. Job done.

Breeding to sell just means you will use a commercial stallion to hopefully get into the better sales and even then it's all dependent on your mare. It's all window dressing and fashion. Currently anyone with a commercial mare goes to Fastnet or Snitzel and be damned with the suitability of the mating.

Breeding to race should mean you are choosing the right stallion for your mare without concern for fashion or trends.

Spending under 15 or even 10- go for the unproven, try and find the next I Am Invincible, Encosta de Lago etc. The established ones under that price are there for a reason.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tuddy7272 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2017 at 9:56am
Thank's to everyone for their comments on this thread. I have learnt a lot and it's certainly had me look into areas that I had never ventured before.

For what it's worth, I have decided to go to Shamus Award. I really like the mating on paper, he suits her physically and the mating is trying to build on her strength as a middle distance/staying pedigree.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote bradjm Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2017 at 10:49am
Originally posted by Stallions Inc Stallions Inc wrote:

Originally posted by MichaelM MichaelM wrote:

The Hong Kong market is a strange one to try and specifically target as a breeder.  They usually only shop at the 100k+ end of the market and only at the major sales.  Then if you're going to sell the horse to them as a tried horse or trialler, they don't really care if it is by either Fastnet Rock or Porky Pig as long as it can run.

I don't envisage the Hong Kong buyers rocking up to the QTIS Sale in 2019 en masse.  That is where the majority of breeders will be selling their yearlings by him unless I am mistaken.


Very sensible, logical approach Michael.

I think breeders can over complicate things and progold is on the money here- breed to produce a racehorse and everything else will fall in line. Breeding to sell, breeding to race? It's all strange.

The quality of your mare decides your stallion budget. Then within that budget choose the most suitable match. Job done.

Breeding to sell just means you will use a commercial stallion to hopefully get into the better sales and even then it's all dependent on your mare. It's all window dressing and fashion. Currently anyone with a commercial mare goes to Fastnet or Snitzel and be damned with the suitability of the mating.

Breeding to race should mean you are choosing the right stallion for your mare without concern for fashion or trends.

Spending under 15 yr even 10- go for the unproven, try and find the next I Am Invincible, Encosta de Lago etc. The established ones under that price are there for a reason.






Going to unproven discounts everything you said about breeding a racehorse.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tuddy7272 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2017 at 1:01pm
Bradjm, your comment is dependent on what your definition of "breed to race" is and clearly there are several views on what that means in this forum. Nobody's definition is wrong.

My view on "breed to race" is that I wan't to breed a racehorse that I would be more than happy to race myself if for whatever reason the yearling didn't end up being a commercial sale proposition. While the sales ring is not the primary focus, I would like to give myself some upside to go to the sales ring should the planets align whereby I end up with a nice type by a stallion that is wanted by the market, irrespective of whether the yearling it is a colt or a filly.

I have no problem at all racing a HRE however i think it is extremely unlikely there is any upside at all, particularly if i get a filly. As has been mentioned before, it is unlikely many, if any of his progeny make a premier sale and particularly in Hong Kong, his filly's will be unwanted. So for me there is little upside however I would be happy to race the yearling myself.

The reason I ended up with Shamus Award, aside from the reasons i mentioned earlier is that if he gets 2YO runners over the next couple of seasons there is plenty of upside for me in the sales ring. Of course there is a risk that he doesn't get runners and the market loses all interest in him but that is a risk I am willing to take given the outlay. 

For me, flexibility is everything and at the price, Shamus Award ticks all the boxes. If he gets early runners then in all likelihood I have a saleable commodity and if he doesn't, I have a relatively inexpensive yearling that I can take my time with and race myself.

Rightly or wrongly, that is how I choose to approach to this breeding caper.   
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Cityboy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2017 at 4:23pm
Sounds like a good sensible approach 👍
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Tuddy

When you say breed a race horse first worry about the market second then that should mean using a info that has worked before like X stallion over y mares family.

You can't possibly know that with a stallion that has no progeny on a race track.

That is why I said using unproven sires to breed a race horse is at odds with the desired outcome.

At the end of the day though it's all voodoo magic, you can repeat a mating 5 times get one champ and 4 plodders.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Progold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2017 at 7:47pm
At the end of the day though it's all voodoo magic, you can repeat a mating 5 times get one champ and 4 plodders.

But most times the pedigree will tell you how repeatable it is in terms of quality.  There are matings that are likely to produce five winners out of five, and others one out of five.  If you ask a lot of breeders what they would be happy with, most would probably say one in five if they thought it might be a champion.
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Weanling
Weanling


Joined: 11 Jun 2017
Location: Tenterfield
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mumtaz Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jun 2017 at 9:09pm
I think in many ways Shamus Award is a great stallion and with a proven mare could do well.

However, personally I like sending a young mare to proven stallions at least 2 of the first 3 years.  There are  so many mares going through the sales lucky to sell for $400 because they have barely had a winner (if that).  Then you look at the sires those mares went to, and all they had gone to were unproven sires and they did not get the luck of striking the one in ten new sires that make some sort of a start.  But even then you don't want to bid on them because 1) they are now uncommercial; and 2) you can't tell if the mare or the now failed stallion was the reason for the non-performance of the mare's progeny.

Your young mare needs winners in the first few years or is written off.  There is a reason why old timers talk about sending young mares to old stallions and old mares to young stallions (apart from the debateable theory of what the cumulative age of the two parents should be).  On the other hand it could be a great cross and your gut instinct worked well.


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