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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Jan 2016 at 8:27pm
You meant "parochial" not "colloquial" ?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote acacia alba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Jan 2016 at 8:40pm
we just had another 45ml in a storm this afternoon late.    bucketed down for about 45 mins.
animals before people.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Jan 2016 at 8:45pm
I heard a bloke talking about "fat rain" on the wireless today. Apparently happens in the New Guinea highlands, raindrops large and fast enough to hurt ! Makes sense that rain would fall faster through the thin air, and a bigger raindrop would have higher terminal velocity, having less frontal area per unit of weight.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote acacia alba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jan 2016 at 9:42am
If you cant dazzle them with brilliance...............LOL
animals before people.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote subastral Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jan 2016 at 12:26pm
Originally posted by Fiddlesticks Fiddlesticks wrote:

bollocks...utter ripe colloquial bollocks...
 
You drowning from all that rain Fiddles? Miight want to check annual rainfall and get back to me.
It's ok, you can like Sydney, that's fine. Just accept your weather is awful.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote LR80 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jan 2016 at 6:45pm
Originally posted by subastral subastral wrote:

Originally posted by Fiddlesticks Fiddlesticks wrote:

bollocks...utter ripe colloquial bollocks...
 
You drowning from all that rain Fiddles? Miight want to check annual rainfall and get back to me.
It's ok, you can like Sydney, that's fine. Just accept your weather is awful.

Mate, there's nothing to do in Melbourne except graffiti someone's car or house, or indulge in faux coffee "kultcha" or watch the boring tennis during January. The amount of graffiti in Melbourne is astonishing...and the days without sunshine. Apparently Melburnians only get 46 clear days on average in a year.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jan 2016 at 7:00pm
Sydney annual rainfall: 48.1 inches
Melbourne annual rainfall: 23.7 inches
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jan 2016 at 7:17pm

I 'd say Melbourne would have more rainy days than Sidderknee, though.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote acacia alba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Jan 2016 at 7:18pm
LOL  Dont move here then.  Over the last 4 to 6 weeks we would have had roughly 10 inches .   Maybe a bit more or less.  I know the flood watch a couple of weeks ago put the rain at about 7 inches, and we have had a couple of huge falls since then.  Almost 2 inches last night, and another nearly an inch this arvo.  Thats without all the other storms and follow on rains. 
We are developing webbed feet in this part of the world.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote subastral Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Feb 2016 at 10:35am
Oh I see its raining heavily today, and its a Thursday. What a whacky place, a day early this week that the track gets drenched to ruin another weekends racing.....
LR80, beautiful 30 degree days down here tomorrow and the weekend. I have a spare bedroom at my place. You are more than welcome to come down and get some sun on your back!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote LR80 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Feb 2016 at 10:40am
Originally posted by subastral subastral wrote:

Oh I see its raining heavily today, and its a Thursday. What a whacky place, a day early this week that the track gets drenched to ruin another weekends racing.....
LR80, beautiful 30 degree days down here tomorrow and the weekend. I have a spare bedroom at my place. You are more than welcome to come down and get some sun on your back!

I'll sleep on the floor if that's ok..... This weather is shocking. May have to give up my passport and head to Melbourne.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Fiddlesticks Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Feb 2016 at 12:44pm
Originally posted by Second Chance Second Chance wrote:

Sydney annual rainfall: 48.1 inches
Melbourne annual rainfall: 23.7 inches


these kinds of stats are stupid, if it rains 48 inches in one day that's 364 days of sunshine...

stupid stat imo..


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Fiddlesticks Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Feb 2016 at 12:45pm
Originally posted by subastral subastral wrote:

Oh I see its raining heavily today, and its a Thursday. What a whacky place, a day early this week that the track gets drenched to ruin another weekends racing.....
LR80, beautiful 30 degree days down here tomorrow and the weekend. I have a spare bedroom at my place. You are more than welcome to come down and get some sun on your back!


who the fk wants stinking hot 30 degree days..??

I'm much happier with a nice 26 and overcast any day of the wek...you can keep your hot sticky humid mess thanks..
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Mar 2016 at 4:17pm

Sydney's dry spell almost over

Craig McIntosh, Sunday March 13, 2016 - 13:11 EDT Enjoy the last of what has been three weeks of rain-free days, Sydneysiders, as it waves goodbye tomorrow.

Summer certainly dug its heels in and refused to leave come the start of autumn, however it's now coming to an end. The CBD last recorded some rainfall on February 22nd. Today will mark the 20th consecutive dry day for Sydney. Back in August last year there was a run of 24 days without rain, however at this time of the year a dry stretch this long has not occurred in over a century. In 1912 there were 21 consecutive days void of any rain drops during February/March.

A deepening trough over eastern NSW, combined with moist onshore winds, will trigger some heavy rain periods across the Sydney Basin in coming days. Monday will see a few showers, possibly thunderstorms getting in the way of the sun, but Tuesday is likely to see more persistent showers. Tuesday will also bring an end to the city's record-breaking 39-day run of 26 degrees or warmer.

Showers are possible daily to finish off the working week. Although temperatures will still be summer-like despite the rain, a cold front is expected around Saturday which will bring conditions more into the early autumn weather mould.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 May 2016 at 6:34pm
NSW appears to be in for a deluge so this is more appropriate here than in the Vic. thread Big smile

Evening Update, May 7th.

Posted on AnthonyPosted in Premium

Good evening all, time for tonights update, and it is a cracker!

The system is now unfolding nicely. Its looking like totals are going to be around the top end range from what I can see unfolding at the moment.

It is seriously on!  Which shouldn’t really surprise you as I have liked this system from the time I seen what was unfolding a while back.

But now that it is real, its looking very very good, and as I said very heavy falls are likely to develop over the next 12 to 24 hours.

Please note, the rainfall figures for Sunday are what I am expecting from right now.

Here is the current water vapour, and it shows an extraordinary amount of moisture available.

 

aus_wv_latest (13)

As I have said for the last two days, this system will split the moisture in two. The line drawn is where it has already begun by the looks of it.

One half will shear off into NSW and QLD, the other should tuck in nicely into the low.

The dry air is indicated there, that will be our downslide as the low winds up overnight and in the morning.

The satellite photo is particularly spectacular, a decent shift from what we had these last few months.

aus_truevis_latest (3)

The important thing I have marked on here is the green arrow. Thats where the system is starting to split.

Everything West of that arrow will be drawn in towards the low, so a lot of rain is going to set up on the upslide over SA overnight.

NSW will see heavy rain also as the rest of the upper trough moves in and interacts with moisture there.

Its looking very wet. In the next 6 hours we will see this develop, and the focus becomes the heavy band of rain and thunderstorms on the upslide of the Low.

This may take until tomorrow morning to develop properly.

Here is the current Adelaide radar, it shows rain picking up now to be heavy around the region.

IDR641

This is where we might get lucky, because all of this activity is well ahead of the low itself where the heavy rain will be.

And you have to ask yourself, if the rain is starting to shows this intensity here, how strong will it be once the upslide band develops?

Im starting to think we are going to see some really big totals, not so much for SA but for NSW and Vic.

And when I mean big, the Slopes may see 100 mm plus, with the BOM now issuing flood watches.

The good news is the system is big and the heavy band is 12 hours away at least, so anything scored today is a welcome start.

As for totals, NSW can expect really big totals and be very wet, and I am tipping monthly averages are likely through a fair portion of SE Australia.

Speaking of monthly averages, and I have tossed up this for the last couple of hours on whether or not I should post it.

Yesterday Elders updated their seasonal outlooks, and issued decile 1 for the Riverina, and all of the SA districts.

Screen Shot 2016-05-07 at 3.37.06 PM

Yesterday. Not last month. Yesterday. If someone could explain how this can happen, knowing that monthly rain is about to fall, I would be very grateful.

Thats what happens when you use models only and don’t think logically. No one is perfect, I’m certainly not and make plenty of errors forecasting.

But this is unforgivable. I have forecasted decile 6, issued April 15. So take confidence when I tell you my track record is very good, and I will prove it to you all over time.

Anyway, I thought I would show that because Im still shocked that was issued. I probably should have left it for Wednesday Wrap Up but I wanted you to see it before the event.

Before we go, and getting back on track, here is the National radar.

IDR00004

The leading edge of the low is near Kalgoorlie, and the area circled is what we will look for to develop overnight and become heavy.

The Eyre Peninsula should see some rain develop overnight and hopefully become heavy, and then it slowly moves East during the day, and the rain over Adelaide now washes out tomorrow afternoon.

The other thing to note is between Woomera and Central Australia its likely to be raining, it just isn’t showing up on radar.

Please let me know in the comments how much you have had and your location.

Any questions please ask, loving the interaction and your questions, keep them coming.

Have a great night, we will follow this with interest and I will keep updating in the comments section as the Live Weather Blog is having problems.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 May 2016 at 9:41am
I've little knowledge of NSW districts so have copied the one I do know but if anyone would like their specific area PMd or pasted, let me know i.e. Central West/SW Slopes or SA & Q'land for that matter Wink

Riverina NSW Weekly Forecast

Weekly Update, issued May 14 th.

Weather Situation : 

A stable pattern has set up over the interior of the country, with a large high pressure system currently stationary. Over the next 7 days weak cold fronts clip the South of the country, before a stronger front moves through the Lower SE SA, Victoria, Tasmania and Southern NSW on Thursday. Then an upper trough develops over WA, and amplifies as it crosses Southern Australia. At this stage it looks like it will interact with a surface trough over the NT, and interact next week weekend.

Week 1, May 14th – May 21st.

A large high pressure system is ensuring stable weather over most of the country this week,

On Thursday a weak front moves into Victoria, and may clip the Southern NSW region.

Conditions will again become fine, although cloud begins to increase on the weekend as the next system approaches

Barring this conditions will be dry with sunny and mild weather expected for the remainder of the period.

Rainfall : 1 – 5  mm.

Forecast Confidence :  Very High

———————————————————————————————————————————————————————–

Week 2, May 22nd– May 29th.

A large upper trough will move into West Australia next Sunday.

This will become the dominant weather feature this week, with widespread rain likely.

An upper low is likely to from on this Long Wave trough and spread rain right into the interior of the country.

A low pressure system develops as it nearsVictoria and may interact with a surface trough moving South from the Top End.

At this stage widespread rain is likely, and will develop in NSW in the middle of this period and begin to increase late in the period.

Rainfall : 10 – 20 mm.

Forecast Confidence :   High

———————————————————————————————————————————————————————-

Week 3, May 30th – June 5th

Conditions will now start to destabilize, as the upper ridge start to lose its grip.

A large upper level trough will develop over Eastern Australia, especially QLD.

At the same time, the large scale Long Wave Trough will continue developing West of WA, and start to move in.

This sets the stage for widespread rain for the entire country as both troughs become active, and the lower pressure dominates.

Heavy falls are likely with this sequence of events.

Rainfall : 20 – 40 mm

Forecast Confidence : Medium / High

———————————————————————————————————————————————————————

Week 4, June 6th – June 13th

Widespread rain is likely as low pressure begins to dominate the country.

Heavy falls of rain are likely with monthly averages easily achievable through a wide part of the country this week.

The heaviest falls are likely in every state except WA, where a ridge should keep most of WA dry, except for the South West and coasts.

Rainfall : 15 – 25 mm

Forecast Confidence : Medium 

———————————————————————————————————————————————————————

Notes : Obviously the first two weeks are the targets weeks, what happens with these two weeks will determine the following two weeks downstream of that.

We are moving into a very active period with a lot of things going on, and the weather will change quickly. Hence, I will be updating these pages regularly to give subscribers the best information as it occurs.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Jun 2016 at 3:32pm
Looks like NSW is in for one hell of a pounding & the wreckage that goes with it Disapprove 
In case anyone's wondering, inches are to the right of the pics.

Here is the Canadian Rainfall 10 day forecast.

cmc_total_precip_aus_41 (4)

So I am glad I followed instinct and went with CMC, it has not at any point wavered from this scenario.

And you might want to sit down before you view the EC, here is the zoomed in view of rainfall for NSW.

ecmwf_tprecip_nsw_39

We are now looking at a biblical event unfolding. EC has fairly and squarely up the ante this morning and puts almost all of the affected areas under 100 – 150 mm of rain over the next 7 days.

Which, as I said, is what CMC has had all along. So all that is left is whether it can push this far East or be confined to the coast more.

Other than that, this could be one of the biggest June systems will see in our lifetimes.

So now everyone can realise what actually happens when we see a climatic shift.

They are brutal, and arrive with full force. And this was always about whether or not it could tap into tropical moisture.

Thanks to the Easterly push, it most certainly will. I don’t think i have ever seen it forecast 400 mm for the South Coast region, let alone in June.

This model is conservative, but this morning is sending a clear message that mother nature is about to unleash.

So be prepared for an amazing amount of rain in NSW, hopefully SA and Southern WA get there turn soon, and the same with QLD.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Jun 2016 at 8:05am
Up to 300mm predicted for SE Qld coast extending into Northern NSW this weekend
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jujuno Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Jun 2016 at 7:54pm
Desert War, Rain Lover, Latin Knight, Hay List, Mustard...my turf heroes...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jujuno Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Jun 2016 at 7:55pm
so much for the beach at Bronte..
Desert War, Rain Lover, Latin Knight, Hay List, Mustard...my turf heroes...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote jujuno Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Jun 2016 at 7:57pm
this was spotted on the flooded highway at Bombo...the highway and rail-line are almost on the beach...

 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Jun 2016 at 10:30am
I'm only updating the States where heavy rain is likely which is why I haven't posted in Vic for a while.
Looks like NSW is in for more of the same in a week or so but hopefully not as damaging as last week Ouch.

Models now see it, sit back and enjoy the show!

Morning everyone, hope everyone is well. Nice positive shift this morning in the models, will have a brief look and then look at the latest JMA that supports my 4 week forecast.

First off, satellite photo.

auswide_irenh1_latest (11)

The upper trough is QLD is tracking nicely, and the upper trough in SA will also kick off some showers through there and into NSW today and tomorrow.

Once the colder air moves up into QLD tomorrow afternoon, the surface trough will fire in Central QLD.

The front out West will provide the moisture for the system mid week in SA, and is likely to drag more moisture in ahead of it.

Here is how water vapour looks.

auswide_wv_latest (13)

It is simply amazing how quickly the area circled has recharged and is getting primed for its next assault.

This time it has much deeper moisture available, so this is the big one in a couple of weeks getting ready, precisely when the MJO moves into phase 4 and 5.

So for next week, the system in SA is now certain. All thats left is to know where it will be.

Given it is a low rather than a traditional trough, the positioning wont be easy, however it looks fairly general to me.

So I think most of SA will receive around 20 mm, some will see 50 mm, and the least will be around 10 mm.

And dare I say it, the Eyre Peninsula looks like the area to receive the maximum rainfall at this stage.

I will keep a close eye on it over the next 24 hours and see how it evolves as it develops, as you know by now, once you are in downslide you get very little, so its all about where the upslide is going to set up with this system.

So after this, we know that GFS wants to make the focus NSW with a massive system, and the others are not interested.

Well this morning they have become interested, and its all about the upper troughs, so GFS was indeed right as I suggested it was yesterday, and saw this well before the others did.

So here is the EC on Thursday.

ecmwf_z500a_ausnz_25 (2)

This is the point last night where it weakened this upper low right out, and brought the ridge back in.

ecmwf_z500a_ausnz_28 (2)

This morning, it now see the trough spread right up into QLD on Friday afternoon, so GFS was indeed right here.

The Canadian has also seen the light.

cmc_z500a_ausnz_28

Amazing that it also now sees what is going on, so its going to get very active, as I mentioned a few days back.

This is a big win for the GFS, a rare victory, but a big one. It has spotted what was happening well before the others.

So naturally, EC responds by giving the NSW system a chance to develop with this next weekend.

ecmwf_slp_precip_australia_33 (1)

EC has a very large surface trough stretching right down the coast in response. And thats exactly what we are looking for here when you have the upper pattern doing what it is currently doing.

The Canadian, well here is what it does.

cmc_precip_mslp_aus_29 (1)

The same thing, opens the door for a big system to develop over NSW. So its all coming together, as I had previously said a few days back, any fine spells in the foreseeable future will be brief.

And there is no sign of any let up at this point. What there is a sign of though, is that July may yet turn out very wet.

As I said yesterday, I have July penciled in for average conditions with decile 5s pretty much for everywhere.

Once we look at the JMA, I don’t think this is going to happen. And in my 4 week forecast you will notice weeks 3 and 4 are very wet.

And now the JMA agrees with my thoughts, and I don’t need to tell you how happy I was when I looked at this last night.

Not that I was worried, but this is my own form of verification, that I can see whats is likely to come before the models do.

Anyone can use a model to forecast, but I am way more advanced than that!

Anyway, here is the current week coming up.

Screen Shot 2016-06-11 at 6.06.53 AM

 

So as we did last time, the first 3 frames are what are important here, the first in the top left is CHI 200, vertical velocity, in other words how unstable it is.

And you can see it is centred in the Indian Ocean.

The next one down is rain, now where there is no colouring, it means average rain for the week, and then the blue is where it sees the above average falls.

Interestingly, in the third picture down, it has high pressure at 500 mb, which doesn’t really match up with what we have looked at this morning.

Lets move onto the 2nd week.

Screen Shot 2016-06-11 at 6.07.07 AM

Notice in the one the blue is starting to centre closer to Australia? Well, its making its move, the Negative IOD is now starting to form and bring the lower pressure closer to us.

In the next one down, the JMA brings in a heap of rain through WA and SA, well above normal with a massive infeed.

And in the third pic, it still has higher pressures at 500, but starts to slacken them off. In fact I will say right now that it will be wrong on that one.

And the 3 and 4th week combined looks like this.

Screen Shot 2016-06-11 at 6.07.22 AM

And here it is, see in the top graph the higher pressure near Africa, and the lower pressure has moved to Australia?

That is what a negative Indian Ocean Dipole means for Australia. it puts higher pressure and cold water near Africa, and lower pressure and warm water near us.

Actually if you look at the bottom right hand graph it says SST anomaly, notice the blue near Africa?

Thats perfect, and the reason I have such high rainfall for the next few months, because the warm water and lower pressure will set up right over us.

In the second graph, the whole of Australia is covered with lots of rain above average, and this will be the first two weeks of July.

So I am now thinking an upgrade to the Seasonal forecast is likely for July.

In the third graph, higher pressure is now gone. In the next week JMA, the EC and Jamstec bring out there seasonal Outlooks for the next 3 to 4 months.

It will confirm for me that we are in for a very wet period all going well.

There is no indication to suggest they wont come out and show anything other than this.

So once they are out I will provide an update. It is at this point looking very wet indeed.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jun 2016 at 8:37am

Todays Update : We could be looking at a major event.

Good morning all, I know I said no update this morning.

But one thing about staying at airports is there is plenty of noise!

So up early and I just wanted to quickly touch base with what the Canadian wants to do this morning.

It wants to bring the most severe event possible.

cmc_total_precip_aus_41 (1)

Almost a repeat of last weeks system, but much worse with widespread heavy rain right down the East coast.

This has massive implications should it come off for widespread flooding after the last event, especially down the NSW coast.

So this is now seeing it, after GFS was all over it early, it has eased its predictions but the other two have ramped right up.

So it should be clear now why I am so bullish on a very active next few months.

Mix this cold into this left over El nino heat and we may see one of these every fortnight.

It is coming on exactly as I had been saying, so the excitement levels now are very high.

At this poin in time at 4.42 am the EC is up to hour 156 in its run and is just starting to begin the explosion of the low, and so far looks the same as CMC.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jun 2016 at 10:17am
Hopefully, in the wake of last weeks' floods, stock owners will have a better idea of where stock will be safer & act sooner rather than later, those who have any left Cry Of course shoreline dwellers can do little more than prepare to leave & hope like Hell Unhappy
Between droughts & floods, who in their right mind would choose to farm?
Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jul 2016 at 8:27pm
Heavy rain for Q/land this weekend followed by a deluge for NSW apparently.

Here is the beginning of the upper low.

ecmwf_z500a_ausnz_11

The upper low develops in a good spot, and this should drag in the surface trough from here and still bring in a good drop.

But instead of weakening, it does this.

ecmwf_z500a_ausnz_21 (2)

It bombs a huge upper low over over Northern QLD, which then changes the whole set up downstream.

ecmwf_pwat_slp_australia_17

Already the difference is the moisture is already dipping into NSW, so that is a massive change. That will increase temperatures as well, and this this opens the door for further Low to develop into NSW next week.

ecmwf_pwat_slp_australia_20

By Sunday night the whole dynamic changes even more, and we now see moisture piling in from the NE.

So after huge system over QLD on Friday and the weekend, something big will be brewing already in NSW, I had not seen this obviously over the last two days.

ecmwf_pwat_slp_australia_27

By mid next week, have a look above of what we are looking at. e are looking at secondary low to develop due to the very high moisture.

So far, EC has this for rainfall.

ecmwf_tprecip_australia_41 (9)

So now we see inland rainfall increase for both NSW and QLD, so the whole dynamic has changed, and that all because of the cold air thats has surged North into the record temperatures.

So I’m going to be keeping a good eye on this, this is happening way too fast. Its now looking dynamic, when it goes dynamic people need canoes. So will be watching closely.

Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote acacia alba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Jul 2016 at 12:57am
So should I get out the Ark ??
Looks bad for NSW .
Just hope its not as bad as April 2015.  
animals before people.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Jul 2016 at 8:40am
Looks like another 2 -3 months acacia Ouch

Things have ramped right up now for the QLD system, with widespread rain now pounding the region.

So I’m up nice and early this morning to catch up on everything, and the cold air is now really interacting well with the warmer air over Northern Australia.

auswide_irenh1_latest

The upper Low is currently over the inland area on the border of NT and QLD, bearing in mind that we have seen record winter temperatures here lately.

So today its going to spiral this rain into the Low, and the coastal part will stay on the coast.

Here is the current radar.

Screen Shot 2016-07-15 at 6.09.06 AM

The weather zone radar shown here shows most of the rain through the coastal fringe. I will check rainfall in a minute for there.

The area to watch is the area circled, once this upper Low begins to deepen we are going to see daily records set here for this time of year, and we will see hail as well, possibly big.

I would not rule out seeing some of the biggest thunderstorms this country has seen given the cold air as the low winds up, so this will need to be monitored closely.

I wouldn’t also rule out 100 – 150 mm for this whole region, this is going to be the historic event I spoke about some time ago.

IDQ65137

Here is the rainfall since 9 am yesterday, and as I mentioned most of the rain is along the coast with the surface trough, and most of the se falls are in the order of 30 – 40 mm.

Over the next 72 hours these totals will be much, much higher.

ecmwf_z500a_ausnz_1

Here is the current chart at 500 mb, you can see the strong upper trough that is over the NT and driving the rain there.

Fast forward to Monday afternoon, and here is what happens.

 

ecmwf_z500a_ausnz_16

We see the upper low strengthen dramatically, so you can imagine what sort of rainfall will be setting up over the weekend on Monday in response to this.

After this breaks all sort so records, it will start to move South, and this is the part of the sequence that was not expected just yet.

ecmwf_pwat_slp_australia_17

You can see here the moisture dives South into NSW on the Southern flank of the low, and this will happen as the low starts to weaken and lose some strength.

ecmwf_slp_precip_australia_23

Naturally, when you see Precipitable Water values of 30 mm plus moving into NSW in July it also spells monster rain events.

Given that is also moves into the ridge, its likely to be slow moving as an Easterly Dip situation sets up.

ecmwf_tprecip_australia_41

Here is the rainfall that EC expects to happen, and you can see this is expecting, like I am, massive rainfall.

ecmwf_tprecip_nsw_41

Here is the zoomed in 10 day forecast rainfall for NSW. Looks like the Tablelands will be hitting the jackpot again, the scary thing is we are still looking at another 8 – 12 weeks of this to come.

So I fear NSW is going to have a huge flood problem in the coming weeks, and get worse into the Spring. How Elders and WZ had a dry winter and Spring is seriously one of life’s great mysteries.
In any case, that where it is at, for WA we will see the weak upper trough produce rain through the Southern parts.

At this point in time, the big East Coast trough will take over so I would not be surprised if the ridge gets squeezed west and starts to erode the trough there.

Time will tell of course, so probably 10 – 20 mm with this front tomorrow through the SW of the state, and then I need to see what the upper ridge will in response the big upper low that is running the show.

Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Carioca Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Jul 2016 at 10:50am
Interesting read, thanks Gay.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote acacia alba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Jul 2016 at 11:57am
Frost here this morning the biggest/whitest we have even seen right here at our place.  We are up high but in the lee of the hill, and in almost 15 years in this house we have maybe 1 light one in our yard each winter.  This year we have had 4 or 5 .  This morning it looked like it had snowed.  Now its a beautiful sunny warm day !  Go figure.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote acacia alba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Jul 2016 at 11:23pm
Lol, last night was bitterly cold and ice all over the place.
Tonight is mild with light rain and a huge fog.
Very odd weather thats for sure.

animals before people.
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