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Northerly vs Rogan Josh at 3200 metres

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Jamal View Drop Down
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    Posted: 10 Oct 2011 at 9:15pm
Hi all,
 
Ok so here it is. Two of WA's best stayers in the last 20-odd years. One a multiple WFA winner including two Cox Plates and a Caulfield Cup and one a WFA winner and Melbourne Cup winner.
 
Northerly vs Rogan Josh.
 
Distance: 3200 metres.
 
Track: Flemington
 
Weight Conditions: WFA
 
Track: Good 2
 
The only reason why I have put the weights at WFA is because I wouldn't know what weight these two horses would get and I aint a handicapper either.
 
 
Northerly 58kg: Fred Kersley and Damien Oliver
 
Rogan Josh 58kg: Bart Cummings and John Marshall
 
Can Northerly run the 2-miles?
 
It's all hyptherical but it's a bit of fun and a question that I have always wondered. Could Northerly have run a strong 2-miles if he wasn't given so much weight. I hope most of you can contribute to this question.
 
Hope your all backing a winner or two.
 
 
Look forward to your thoughts.
 
Cheers,
Jamal.
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Ellas Ellas View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ellas Ellas Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 Oct 2011 at 7:26pm
Definitely Northerly and by quite a margin.
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Jamal View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Oct 2011 at 11:32pm
Originally posted by Ellas Ellas Ellas Ellas wrote:

Definitely Northerly and by quite a margin.
 
 
On talent alone Northerly would win, not saying Josh was a mug but Northerly would win. If it was a strong 2-miles then who knows - at least Josh would run the trip.
 
If it was under handicap conditions then Rogan Josh might have chance.
 
 
Cheers,
Jamal.
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TIGER View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote TIGER Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Oct 2011 at 8:04am
Throw Beaux Art into the race.
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Jamal View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Oct 2011 at 3:23pm
Originally posted by TIGER TIGER wrote:

Throw Beaux Art into the race.
 
 
Yeah why not mate. Thrown Beaux Art in too.
 
Anyone else?
 
Cheers,
Jamal.
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melbsteve View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote melbsteve Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Oct 2011 at 12:27am
It's a no-brainer for mine!  Rogan Josh won a Melbourne Cup over 2 miles while Northerly never raced over 2 miles....wonder why?
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Jamal View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Oct 2011 at 11:39pm
Originally posted by melbsteve melbsteve wrote:

It's a no-brainer for mine!  Rogan Josh won a Melbourne Cup over 2 miles while Northerly never raced over 2 miles....wonder why?
 
 
The Josh to win.
 
 
Cheers,
Jamal.
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ExceedAndExcel View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Nov 2011 at 8:05pm
What about Subzero? LOL
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Jamal View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Nov 2011 at 8:20pm
Not sure what Subzero has anything to do with this thread.
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Jamal View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Dec 2014 at 7:58pm
Thought I'd bring this thread up again. Who wins? Lets get more participants.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Fiddlesticks Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Dec 2014 at 8:01pm
Originally posted by melbsteve melbsteve wrote:

It's a no-brainer for mine!  Rogan Josh won a Melbourne Cup over 2 miles while Northerly never raced over 2 miles....wonder why?


well well well...LOL

if it isn't ol' James Bond Esquire...hows things Steeeeve...
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subastral View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote subastral Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Dec 2014 at 8:43pm
Jamal and Rogan Josh..........skol........
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Dec 2014 at 7:37am
Originally posted by Fiddlesticks Fiddlesticks wrote:


Originally posted by melbsteve melbsteve wrote:

It's a no-brainer for mine!  Rogan Josh won a Melbourne Cup over 2 miles while Northerly never raced over 2 miles....wonder why?


well well well...LOL

if it isn't ol' James Bond Esquire...hows things Steeeeve...



Wasn't melbsteve the peanut who thought it was ok to steal other people's betting terminal credit when they accidentally leave it behind? Scumbag if I recall correctly.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Fiddlesticks Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Dec 2014 at 8:22am
Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

Originally posted by Fiddlesticks Fiddlesticks wrote:


Originally posted by melbsteve melbsteve wrote:

It's a no-brainer for mine!  Rogan Josh won a Melbourne Cup over 2 miles while Northerly never raced over 2 miles....wonder why?


well well well...LOL

if it isn't ol' James Bond Esquire...hows things Steeeeve...



Wasn't melbsteve the peanut who thought it was ok to steal other people's betting terminal credit when they accidentally leave it behind? Scumbag if I recall correctly.


yes...
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Nocturnal View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Nocturnal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Dec 2014 at 8:43am
Originally posted by subastral subastral wrote:

Jamal and Rogan Josh..........skol........
As a lad I had posters of Elle Mcpherson types in my room to bat off to , tipping Jamal had RJ posters
The only problem with backing winners ? You never have enough on....
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Jamal, If it was a two horse race there would really only be one winner and that would be Northerly by as far as his jockey wanted to win.

You'd imagine that Greg Childs or Patrick Payne would simply dictate the terms to suit Northerly.

John Marshall on the other hand would have to try and make it into a true 2 mile contest and take the sprint out of Northerly.

If it was a proper field of 2 milers I am not sure if either would win but I'd imagine run at a constant tempo Rogan Josh would have a better chance.

My markets - 

2 horse race

Northerly $1.04
Rogan Josh $20.00

In a full field of 16 Northerly Vs Rogan Josh first home

Northerly $1.75 
Rogan Josh $2.25




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The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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Jamal View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Jamal Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Dec 2014 at 1:05pm
Originally posted by djebel djebel wrote:

Jamal, If it was a two horse race there would really only be one winner and that would be Northerly by as far as his jockey wanted to win.

You'd imagine that Greg Childs or Patrick Payne would simply dictate the terms to suit Northerly.

John Marshall on the other hand would have to try and make it into a true 2 mile contest and take the sprint out of Northerly.

If it was a proper field of 2 milers I am not sure if either would win but I'd imagine run at a constant tempo Rogan Josh would have a better chance.

My markets - 

2 horse race

Northerly $1.04
Rogan Josh $20.00

In a full field of 16 Northerly Vs Rogan Josh first home

Northerly $1.75 
Rogan Josh $2.25




So what you're saying is:

A sit-and-sprint 3200m - Northerly wins?

A true staying test 3200m - Rogan Josh wins?


Also you say that in proper field of 2-milers (field of 16) you'd say neither would get home first. The thing is - isn't Rogan Josh a "proper 2-miler" His record at 3200m says two starts for a win and a 2nd placing. So 3200m was not a problem for the horse.

Northerly on the other hand - well a distance query at 3200m simply because he never got to run at that trip.



Cheers,
Jamal.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Pardon_My_Dust Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Feb 2015 at 8:54pm
Northerly would win. He'd run two miles at his peak no probs. Even with a full field and giving Rogan Josh 5kg. Just wins. Travesty the horse never ran in a Cup.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote djebel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Feb 2015 at 8:36am
Originally posted by Jamal Jamal wrote:

Originally posted by djebel djebel wrote:

Jamal, If it was a two horse race there would really only be one winner and that would be Northerly by as far as his jockey wanted to win.

You'd imagine that Greg Childs or Patrick Payne would simply dictate the terms to suit Northerly.

John Marshall on the other hand would have to try and make it into a true 2 mile contest and take the sprint out of Northerly.

If it was a proper field of 2 milers I am not sure if either would win but I'd imagine run at a constant tempo Rogan Josh would have a better chance.

My markets - 

2 horse race

Northerly $1.04
Rogan Josh $20.00

In a full field of 16 Northerly Vs Rogan Josh first home

Northerly $1.75 
Rogan Josh $2.25




So what you're saying is:

A sit-and-sprint 3200m - Northerly wins?

A true staying test 3200m - Rogan Josh wins?  Has a better chance of winning.


Also you say that in proper field of 2-milers (field of 16) you'd say neither would get home first. The thing is - isn't Rogan Josh a "proper 2-miler" His record at 3200m says two starts for a win and a 2nd placing. So 3200m was not a problem for the horse.

Northerly on the other hand - well a distance query at 3200m simply because he never got to run at that trip.



Cheers,
Jamal.


STRIKE WHILST THE IRON IS HOT

reductio ad absurdum

The richest man is not he who has the most, but he who needs the least.

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