Join up at Bet Easy - Click here - Bet Easy is Thoroughbred Village’s premier betting partner - Join here now
Forum Home Forum Home > All Sports - Public Forums > Joffs All Sports Bar
  New Posts New Posts RSS Feed - NFL 2018
  FAQ FAQ  Forum Search   Events   Register Register  Login Login


Click here for the Thoroughbred Village Home Page. For village news, follow @TBVillage on Twitter. For horseracing tips, follow @Villagebet on Twitter. To contact the Mayor by email: Click Here.

NFL 2018

 Post Reply Post Reply Page  <123>
Author
Message
Afros View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 14 Jan 2009
Status: Offline
Points: 6373
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Afros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Dec 2018 at 12:10pm
I'm sure the NFL would be happy from a marketing point of view with Saints vs Chargers or Patriots, either Brees vs the team who cut him and the guy who replaced him or Brees vs one of 2 QBs of his generation rated higher then himself (and he's already played and beaten Peyton in a super bowl), not sure which team Brees would enjoy winning a Lombardi against more.
Back to Top
Sponsored Links
Click here to view the promotions at Bet Easy.


Back to Top
Tlazolteotl View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 02 Oct 2012
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 14549
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Dec 2018 at 8:56am

Don't Kid Yourself: The Patriots Are Going Back to the Super BowlCry



Brad Gagnon


https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2812308-dont-kid-yourself-the-patriots-are-going-back-to-the-super-bowl



The 2018 New England Patriots are not special. 

Quarterback Tom Brady, whose passer rating is only two points above the league average, has lacked consistency and seen his numbers decline over the course of one of the worst statistical seasons of his career. Already without the departed Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola, Brady has lost receiver Josh Gordon and isn't getting as much as expected out of favorite targets Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman.

And New England's bottom-12 defense, which through 15 weeks ranked below the league median in terms of DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) at Football Outsiders, has surrendered more than 30 points on five occasions. 

Only two Patriots are headed to the Pro Bowl, and only cornerback Stephon Gilmore has a shot at being an All-Pro. 

Known for gaining steam in the second half of the season, the more-fallible-than-ever Pats are just 3-3 in their last six games, and they haven't won outside of Massachusetts since before Halloween. 

And yet it remains inevitable: New England is going to the Super Bowl for the fourth time in the last five years, the sixth time in the last 12 years and the ninth time in head coach Bill Belichick's 19-year tenure.

That's because this is the perfect year to be less than perfect, and the Patriots still have just enough experience, talent and smarts to take advantage of the fact that the rest of the AFC is composed of sick kittens that are destined to lose control of their bladders the moment they step foot on the FieldTurf at Gillette Stadium. 

The defensively inept AFC West-leading Kansas City Chiefs have lost three of their last five games, surrendering a startling 35.6 points per outing during that span, while the offense has lost an edge without Kareem Hunt (released) and Sammy Watkins (foot injury). Kansas City is doing the opposite of peaking at the right time, and a team that has lost six consecutive home playoff games looks doomed to suffer another early-postseason exit. 

The Los Angeles Chargers were the conference's hottest team, but L.A. scored just 10 points in a gross Week 16 home loss to a Baltimore Ravens squad that was traveling on short rest with a raw rookie quarterback. 

Speaking of that raw rookie quarterback, does anybody envision Lamar Jackson winning a playoff game in Foxborough? 

And after loading up on wins against soft opponents in October and November, the AFC South-leading Houston Texans have lost two of their last three games and allowed the Pats to leapfrog them into the No. 2 seed in that conference. Now, the Patriots merely need to beat the New York Jets at home on Sunday to skip Wild Card Weekend. 

And that's huge, because blocking the Pats from a first-round bye is the key ingredient in the recipe for a non-New England Super Bowl. Under Belichick, the Pats have gone to the Super Bowl in eight of the 12 seasons in which they had a bye. But they're 0-of-3 at getting past the AFC Championship Game without a bye.

A New England win over the Jets and a Chiefs loss to the Oakland Raiders would guarantee the Pats home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. But again, that might happen regardless because the Chiefs are no lock with a home-field edge in January.

Maybe a dark horse like the Indianapolis Colts or Tennessee Titans will emerge with an improbable playoff run, but the Titans have been ravaged by injuries and Indy has stumbled this month against inferior opponents Jacksonville and the Giants. Only one of those AFC South rivals will make the playoffs, and that team will be the No. 6 seed unless the Jaguars upset the Texans on Sunday. Regardless, they'd have to travel to New England, as would the allergic-to-Foxborough Pittsburgh Steelers if they were to overcome long odds and sneak in as the AFC North winner. 

This Patriots team would be in trouble if it were to face the 2017 Jaguars or 2017 Steelers on the road in January, and they'd be screwed against a wide range of previous editions of the Steelers, Denver Broncos or Colts. 

But those teams don't exist in this AFC field. 

And you just know the Patriots will find a way, because that's what they do. Brady and the out-of-sync passing game was saved by a rejuvenated running game that had 273 yards in Sunday's victory over the Buffalo Bills. And while the full-season numbers aren't great, the defense has surrendered 17 or fewer points in four of New England's last five games.

They aren't particularly strong in one spot, but there also aren't many glaring weaknesses on the New England roster. And they're healthier than most of their competition.

If Brady gets hot, a Super Bowl run will likely be a cinch. If he doesn't, that running game or defense could carry them. 

The Patriots are the best-coached team in football, and they've been here and done this. They've lost just three of their 22 home playoff games this century. Belichick and Brady intimidate opponents there, converting them to the worst versions of themselves. 

It'll happen again. Count on it. Cry


"Even the things that I believe in the most, I doubt.”
Back to Top
Afros View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 14 Jan 2009
Status: Offline
Points: 6373
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Afros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Dec 2018 at 9:50am
Unfortunately this is true.
Back to Top
Afros View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 14 Jan 2009
Status: Offline
Points: 6373
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Afros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Jan 2019 at 1:41pm
Playoffs start Sunday morning our time.

Saturday
Colts @ Texans
Seahawks @ Cowboys

Sunday
Eagles @ Bears
Chargers @ Ravens

Chiefs and Saints 1st seeds, Patriots and Rams 2nd seeds.

Texans should take care of business at home vs their divisional rivals, Deshaun Watson has been quietly good down the stretch, JJ Watt will be primed for a big game I suspect.

I like Seattle to get the better of Dallas, looks an even match up so I favor the experience of Carroll and Wilson in the crunch against Prescott and Garrett.

Eagles and Bears could be a good game, the Bears have a stout defense however the Eagles are champs and are obviously keen to defend their crown, the Bears in a close one but it wouldn't surprise me if the Eagles won it.

The last game I feel for the bolts, their reward for a 12-4 season and missing #1 seeding is a trip to a side who beat them at their own house 2 weeks ago, I'd love to see Phillip Rivers script a post season run but unfortunately I think a good 2018 ends here.

That would mean Texans @ Patriots and Ravens @ Chiefs, Bears @ Rams and Seahawks @ Saints in the divisional round.
Back to Top
Tlazolteotl View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 02 Oct 2012
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 14549
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jan 2019 at 10:17am
Another example of my pet peeve about NFL coaches. Texans down 21-0. 4th & 1, 13 yards out from the Colts line 1.24 on the clock in the half . So naturally they go for the score on a 13 yd throw instead of going for the much simpler 1 yd and run the clock down.. Even if they score - they didn't - they are giving the Colts 1.20 to score on them.
"Even the things that I believe in the most, I doubt.”
Back to Top
Afros View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 14 Jan 2009
Status: Offline
Points: 6373
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Afros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jan 2019 at 10:21am
Probably a case of coaches trying to double bluff each other, D expecting the run so the O go the pass, terrible pass attempt by Watson if he hits the reciever they get the TD.
Back to Top
Afros View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 14 Jan 2009
Status: Offline
Points: 6373
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Afros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jan 2019 at 11:40am
Colts win in Houston and book a date in Kansas City next week. Deshaun Watsons accuracy has to be a worry for the Texans going forward? Missed a few passes that a top QB should make in his sleep today.
Back to Top
Tlazolteotl View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 02 Oct 2012
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 14549
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jan 2019 at 12:01pm
I'd rather have a QB who is great at passing than one who is great at running.
"Even the things that I believe in the most, I doubt.”
Back to Top
Afros View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 14 Jan 2009
Status: Offline
Points: 6373
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Afros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jan 2019 at 1:56pm
Exactly, history shows you can find productive RBs at all levels of the draft, look at Phillip Lindsay of Denver this season for example wheras majority of top 10 QBs are 1st or 2nd round picks, Tom Brady is the only exception over the last close to 2 decades of QBs outside the first 3 rounds to win a Super Bowl or NFL MVP.
Back to Top
Afros View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 14 Jan 2009
Status: Offline
Points: 6373
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Afros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jan 2019 at 3:18pm
Unfortunately it looks like we've got the most boring team left advancing here, I wish they'd put either of tomorrows games in this slot, would have been far more entertaining.
Back to Top
oneonesit View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 06 Aug 2012
Status: Offline
Points: 12051
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jan 2019 at 6:24pm
Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

Another example of my pet peeve about NFL coaches. Texans down 21-0. 4th & 1, 13 yards out from the Colts line 1.24 on the clock in the half . So naturally they go for the score on a 13 yd throw instead of going for the much simpler 1 yd and run the clock down.. Even if they score - they didn't - they are giving the Colts 1.20 to score on them.
They needed to score twice to win
TBV Statistical Analyst
Back to Top
oneonesit View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 06 Aug 2012
Status: Offline
Points: 12051
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jan 2019 at 6:28pm
Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:

Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

Another example of my pet peeve about NFL coaches. Texans down 21-0. 4th & 1, 13 yards out from the Colts line 1.24 on the clock in the half . So naturally they go for the score on a 13 yd throw instead of going for the much simpler 1 yd and run the clock down.. Even if they score - they didn't - they are giving the Colts 1.20 to score on them.
They needed to score twice to win
Ok apologies - end 1st half. Yes I agree that was an odd play choice. Houston were terrible in that game. 2 critical 3rd down penalties in first quarter critical.
TBV Statistical Analyst
Back to Top
Afros View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 14 Jan 2009
Status: Offline
Points: 6373
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Afros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jan 2019 at 6:33pm
Deshaun Watson was the main reason Houston lost that for mine, his accuracy was terrible.
Back to Top
Tlazolteotl View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 02 Oct 2012
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 14549
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jan 2019 at 6:43pm
Janikowski was crocked when I saw him last week and not surprisingly he broke down on his first field goal attempt. Seems dumb to me but they only have one placekicker on a roster so I don't know what the smart move would have been.
"Even the things that I believe in the most, I doubt.”
Back to Top
Tlazolteotl View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 02 Oct 2012
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 14549
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jan 2019 at 6:46pm
Originally posted by oneonesit oneonesit wrote:

Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

Another example of my pet peeve about NFL coaches. Texans down 21-0. 4th & 1, 13 yards out from the Colts line 1.24 on the clock in the half . So naturally they go for the score on a 13 yd throw instead of going for the much simpler 1 yd and run the clock down.. Even if they score - they didn't - they are giving the Colts 1.20 to score on them.
They needed to score twice to win


They needed to score 3 times to win at that time but that's not the point. If you can eliminate the possibility of the other side scoring by running down the clock, run down the clock.
"Even the things that I believe in the most, I doubt.”
Back to Top
Afros View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 14 Jan 2009
Status: Offline
Points: 6373
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Afros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jan 2019 at 9:02pm
Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

Janikowski was crocked when I saw him last week and not surprisingly he broke down on his first field goal attempt. Seems dumb to me but they only have one placekicker on a roster so I don't know what the smart move would have been.


No chance they carry an extra kicker over any other position on game day, maybe on the practice squad but not 2 on game day.
Back to Top
Afros View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 14 Jan 2009
Status: Offline
Points: 6373
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Afros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Jan 2019 at 8:27am
Chargers advance after beating the Ravens, so the AFC divisional round wil be Chargers @ Patriots and Colts @ Chiefs, given how my game picks have gone the Eagles muust be morals against the bears
Back to Top
Tlazolteotl View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 02 Oct 2012
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 14549
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Jan 2019 at 11:52am
Hooo- nailbiter.Sick

It's a weird situation at Philly- their backup quarterback can't stop winning.

"Even the things that I believe in the most, I doubt.”
Back to Top
Brudder_A View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 01 Apr 2013
Location: Atlantic City
Status: Offline
Points: 1437
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Brudder_A Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 07 Jan 2019 at 12:17pm
Originally posted by Tlazolteotl Tlazolteotl wrote:

Hooo- nailbiter.Sick

It's a weird situation at Philly- their backup quarterback can't stop winning.



More like the Bears field kicker hitting the upright far too many times this season....



Back to Top
Afros View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 14 Jan 2009
Status: Offline
Points: 6373
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Afros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jan 2019 at 7:24am
Divisional round starts this morning.

Colts @ Chiefs
Cowboys @ Rams
Chargers @ Patriots
Eagles @ Saints

I fancy the Chiefs to get it done in KC, the Rams should be able to handle the Cowboys at home, as much as I'd like to say it I just don't think the Chargers can beat the Patriots in Foxboro in January and I think the Saints will get home although I have a feeling the Eagles could pull a bit of a surprise.
Back to Top
Tlazolteotl View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 02 Oct 2012
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 14549
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jan 2019 at 10:00am
17 first downs to none.

Oh they finally get one.
"Even the things that I believe in the most, I doubt.”
Back to Top
Afros View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 14 Jan 2009
Status: Offline
Points: 6373
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Afros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jan 2019 at 10:26am
The colts have now allowed KC to convert on 4 4th downs, admittedly in short yardage situations but surely the defense know they'll run it and can set up accordingly, these are the moments Indy need to win if they're gunna win this thing.
Back to Top
Afros View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 14 Jan 2009
Status: Offline
Points: 6373
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Afros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jan 2019 at 10:27am
Originally posted by Afros Afros wrote:

The colts have now allowed KC to convert on 3 4th downs, admittedly in short yardage situations but surely the defense know they'll run it and can set up accordingly, these are the moments Indy need to win if they're gunna win this thing.


Edit button would be handy Mayor.
Back to Top
Tlazolteotl View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 02 Oct 2012
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 14549
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jan 2019 at 10:37am
Colts are going to lose by 50. They are awful.
"Even the things that I believe in the most, I doubt.”
Back to Top
Afros View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 14 Jan 2009
Status: Offline
Points: 6373
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Afros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jan 2019 at 11:37am
Indy down by 3 scores with a little over 2 and a quarter minutes left and no timeouts, the Chiefs are moving on.
Back to Top
Afros View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 14 Jan 2009
Status: Offline
Points: 6373
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Afros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jan 2019 at 3:44pm
So the Rams are through after beating the Cowboys, Championship Sunday will be Patriots/Chargers @ Chiefs and either Eagles @ Rams or Rams @ Saints.
Back to Top
Second Chance View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 02 Dec 2007
Status: Online
Points: 16200
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jan 2019 at 6:36pm
Am stuffed how they arrive at some of these quarterback ratings.  Maybe it's totally statistically based, which I can understand but doesn't necessarily rate clutch plays and pivotal brilliance during the course of a game.

Would appreciate advice from all those who know rather more than me.

 
Back to Top
Afros View Drop Down
Champion
Champion


Joined: 14 Jan 2009
Status: Offline
Points: 6373
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Afros Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jan 2019 at 7:17pm
As far as I'm aware it's purely a metrics thing, clutch isn't taken into it, I agree with you but, a 75 yard drive to open the game isn't as clutch as one at the end of the fourth to get a TD for the win.
Back to Top
Tlazolteotl View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 02 Oct 2012
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 14549
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jan 2019 at 7:41pm
Originally posted by Second Chance Second Chance wrote:

Am stuffed how they arrive at some of these quarterback ratings.  Maybe it's totally statistically based, which I can understand but doesn't necessarily rate clutch plays and pivotal brilliance during the course of a game.

Would appreciate advice from all those who know rather more than me.

 


It's soooooo simple.


a=\left({{\text{COMP}} \over {\text{ATT}}}-.3\right)\times 5

b = ( YDS ATT 3 ) × .25 {\displaystyle b=\left({{\text{YDS}} \over {\text{ATT}}}-3\right)\times .25} b=\left({{\text{YDS}} \over {\text{ATT}}}-3\right)\times .25

c = ( TD ATT ) × 20 {\displaystyle c=\left({{\text{TD}} \over {\text{ATT}}}\right)\times 20} c=\left({{\text{TD}} \over {\text{ATT}}}\right)\times 20

d = 2.375 ( INT ATT × 25 ) {\displaystyle d=2.375-\left({{\text{INT}} \over {\text{ATT}}}\times 25\right)} d=2.375-\left({{\text{INT}} \over {\text{ATT}}}\times 25\right)

where

ATT = Number of passing attempts
COMP = Number of completions
YDS = Passing yards
TD = Touchdown passes
INT = Interceptions

If the result of any calculation is greater than 2.375, it is set to 2.375. If the result is a negative number, it is set to zero.

Then, the above calculations are used to complete the passer rating:

Passer Rating = ( ( a + b + c + d ) 6 ) × 100 {\displaystyle {\text{Passer Rating}}=\left({(a+b+c+d) \over 6}\right)\times 100} {\displaystyle {\text{Passer Rating}}=\left({(a+b+c+d) \over 6}\right)\times 100}


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passer_rating


Got it? There will be a short test tomorrow.

"Even the things that I believe in the most, I doubt.”
Back to Top
Tlazolteotl View Drop Down
Champion
Champion
Avatar

Joined: 02 Oct 2012
Location: Australia
Status: Offline
Points: 14549
Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Jan 2019 at 7:42pm
Agh- why didn't that work? Anyway, the formula is in the link.
"Even the things that I believe in the most, I doubt.”
Back to Top
 Post Reply Post Reply Page  <123>
  Share Topic   

Forum Jump Forum Permissions View Drop Down

Forum Software by Web Wiz Forums® version 11.10
Copyright ©2001-2017 Web Wiz Ltd.

This page was generated in 0.047 seconds.