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Multi's explained

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    Posted: 22 Nov 2018 at 7:38am
Hi Forum,

Can someone please explain how a situation like this can actually be a profit, if at all?

example:

selection/leg 1:   $1.30   win
selection/leg 2:   loss
selection/leg 3: $1.30   win
selection/leg 4: $1.30   win

so straight betting, spent $4. return $3.90

But how, and what multi combos, can be used, that can actually make that a profit, or it simply cant be?

Im asking, because I often do 10 leg multi's, and I generally hit around 8 out of 10, or 9 out of 10.
So you end up losing. But if I ran them as trebles, parlays, canadians, and all the other bunched up multi combo fancy names, is it actually possible that it profits?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Nov 2018 at 8:04am
Its just a combinations exercise Redemption. As you say lots of fancy names. Put simply in traditional Parlay betting you can have anything you want - however the more combinations cost you more. The number of combinations is a function of number of legs, number of selections per leg, type of bet (eg win/pl/eachway) & the type of multis to be covered within the bet (singles,doubles, trebles ect)). Your example above is a simple 4 leg multi parlay with one selection for the win per race. A bet for $1 per combo covering a 4 leg all up (1 combo) + the 4 times 3 leg combos (4 combos) will cost you $5. Throw in the 6 times 2 leg combos (doubles) & the cost will be a total of $11. If you take your example - the most you can get back for the first $5 option is $2.20. If you take the option to include the double your $11 bet will return you $7.27. Obviously the short prices & the fact you are only getting 3 out of 4 short priced winners is the cause of the poor dividends. once you get upto 10 legs multi your combinations increase big time - esp if you want doubles/trebles/ quads ect all the way through. Still need to hit a high percentage of winners to get a decent return (esp if small div's)
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Nov 2018 at 8:13am
Number one rule: [BNEVER take multis. They are almost always disasterously poor value as they increase the bookmaker edge considerably.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote oneonesit Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Nov 2018 at 8:22am
Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

Number one rule: [BNEVER take multis. They are almost always disasterously poor value as they increase the bookmaker edge considerably.
True
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Nov 2018 at 12:12pm
Thanks for that great info guys.
Ive never looked much into multi's, and yes, I can see how what you say would be true, its just advantaging the bookies even more.

Thanks for the very detailed write up.
much appreciated

cheers.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mayor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Mar 2019 at 7:27am
Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

Number one rule: [BNEVER take multis. They are almost always disasterously poor value as they increase the bookmaker edge considerably.



What do you mean there, ExceedAndExcel? How is the bookmakers edge higher than individual betting, one after the other? Can someone show me the maths?

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Mar 2019 at 7:34am
Originally posted by Mayor Mayor wrote:

Originally posted by ExceedAndExcel ExceedAndExcel wrote:

Number one rule: [BNEVER take multis. They are almost always disasterously poor value as they increase the bookmaker edge considerably.




What do you mean there, ExceedAndExcel? How is the bookmakers edge higher than individual betting, one after the other? Can someone show me the maths?

cheers, Mayor



Let’s use H2H football markets for simplicity with a 1.95 line. True odds are 2 as there is a 50% chance of each side hitting.

1.95 / 2 = 0.975 = 2.5% inbuilt bookmaker edge

For a 2 leg multi the payout will be 1.95*1.95 = 3.8025. The true odds will be 2*2 = 4

3.8025 / 4 = 0.950625 = 4.9375% bookmaker edge.

For 3 legs the edge is just under 7.5%
For 4 legs it’s just under 9.7%



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mayor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Mar 2019 at 9:39am
Thanks E&E,

I see.

Is that any different to parlaying manually? Where the bookmaker takeout is around 5% for each race?

Or does the "multi" end up with a higher bookie takeout?


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Mar 2019 at 10:08am
Doing it manually with a new bet after every leg makes no difference. It’s the same thing.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Mar 2019 at 6:43pm
Someone today did a $250,  8 leg multi, all selections to run a place.
Got the lot, and won $450,000.
Extraordinary bet.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mayor Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Mar 2019 at 7:36pm
I worked out, using your maths E&E, that for a 4-leg multi, the bookmaker's takeout is 9.63%

I just don't know if they calculate the take-out this way, or do they set an arbitrary take-out for a single multi-bet of say 10-20%.. If so, that's a rort.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Mar 2019 at 7:44pm
Originally posted by Mayor Mayor wrote:

I worked out, using your maths E&E, that for a 4-leg multi, the bookmaker's takeout is 9.63%

I just don't know if they calculate the take-out this way, or do they set an arbitrary take-out for a single multi-bet of say 10-20%.. If so, that's a rort.





It is simply maths Mayor. They don’t set any take out for a multi just individual markets. The disadvantage to the punter will depend on how competitive a market is set. I chose a line of 1.95 which in reality is probably hard to find. So the average bookmaker edge will likely be higher than I quoted.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Mar 2019 at 6:30am
One of the major problems with multis, is you arent getting the better prices at jump.
Outsiders that are $41 fixed, 2 minutes before race, roll out to $51, $61, $71 by jump.
I just wait now. I bet with about 10 seconds to go, because I bet the outsiders to run a place.

Im unsure how they are doing it, but I would assume they now have highly complex algorithms and a process that enables them to twist the markets to greatly favour them.

The only thing I believe that has given us a slight benefit, isnt fixed odds, but best tote the place, when its on offer.
best tote place can be $2.20, $2.40, then a $3.50 in one of the states.
this is good for horses paying around $8 the win.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Mar 2019 at 7:12am
Originally posted by Redemption Redemption wrote:

One of the major problems with multis, is you arent getting the better prices at jump.
Outsiders that are $41 fixed, 2 minutes before race, roll out to $51, $61, $71 by jump.
I just wait now. I bet with about 10 seconds to go, because I bet the outsiders to run a place.

Im unsure how they are doing it, but I would assume they now have highly complex algorithms and a process that enables them to twist the markets to greatly favour them.

The only thing I believe that has given us a slight benefit, isnt fixed odds, but best tote the place, when its on offer.
best tote place can be $2.20, $2.40, then a $3.50 in one of the states.
this is good for horses paying around $8 the win.



Yes, best tote place can be very advantageous to the punter due to the potential for difference in prices between the totes. This is especially the case at shorter prices. If one tote pays 1.4 when the others pay 1.3 then that is a big relative difference.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Mar 2019 at 7:20am
Sportsbet recently followed most others in dropping Top Tote. now Mid Div like the rest of the five I use. 
Windmill cancer survivor.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Redemption Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Mar 2019 at 7:31am
Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

Sportsbet recently followed most others in dropping Top Tote. now Mid Div like the rest of the five I use. 

Yes, because they realised there is a way for us to manipulate it.
I bet 3 to 7 horses to run a place, top tote place, depending on field sizes, and I was extracting money on a consistent basis and I got banned from doing it.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Mar 2019 at 7:53am
Originally posted by Passing Through Passing Through wrote:

Sportsbet recently followed most others in dropping Top Tote. now Mid Div like the rest of the five I use. 




Well there you go. Shows how often I bet horses thermal days.
Do any still offer this option?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Passing Through Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Mar 2019 at 8:00am
None that I know of, but I haven't checked all the minor players.

It has changed the way I bet. Mostly stick to the free bet refund for 2nd and 3rd races on runners $2.50 or under now. 

It gets harder to find an edge
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ExceedAndExcel Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Mar 2019 at 8:05am
Just checked. PointsBet still appear to have it on saturdays at least. They will likely to be quick to ban though.
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