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Melbourne Cup Acceptances

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Progold View Drop Down
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    Posted: 29 Oct 2018 at 6:16pm
For those interested in this year's race, I have updated the dosages of the current Order of Entry on the website.  dosageprofile.com/melbourne-cup-2018

Or else here they are, and I will be updating them closer to the race with my selections.

1

BEST SOLUTION

[0.35/1.42]

[7-6-21-6-0]

2

AVILIUS

[0.61/2.45]

[7-9-22-0-0]

3

ACE HIGH

[0.44/1.56]

[8-4-15-4-1]

4

THE CLIFFSOFMOHER

[-0.09/0.69]

[4-3-22-15-0]

5

MAGIC CIRCLE

[-0.06/0.78]

[2-1-8-4-1]

6

WHO SHOT THEBARMAN

[0.41/1.46]

[7-4-16-5-0]

7

TOSEN BASIL

[0.25/1.67]

[2-3-5-0-2]

8

MUNTAHAA

[0.40/2.08]

[1-7-11-1-0]

9

CHESTNUT COAT

[0.67/2.00]

[4-0-8-0-0]

10

SOUND

[0.44/1.67]

[3-1-12-0-0]

11

ROSTROPOVICH

[0.31/1.21]

[7-3-15-7-0]

12

MARMELO

[0.04/0.96]

[4-6-25-10-1]

13

CROSS COUNTER

[0.08/0.89]

[5-3-18-10-0]

14

YOUNGSTAR

[0.13/1.21]

[3-6-17-4-2]

15

DURETTO

[0.11/0.89]

[3-0-11-4-0]

16

YUCATAN

[0.03/0.81]

[5-3-18-12-0]

17

VENGEUR MASQUE

[-0.06/0.76]

[3-0-25-8-0]

18

VENTURA STORM

[0.43/1.80]

[2-3-8-1-0]

19

RED CARDINAL

[-0.05/0.73]

[4-2-20-12-0]

20

AUVRAY

[-0.09/0.69]

[3-0-12-6-1]

21

RED VERDON

[0.59/1.91]

[9-5-14-4-0]

22

FINCHE

[0.13/0.95]

[6-3-19-10-0]

23

RUNAWAY

[0.78/2.76]

[10-6-15-1-0]

24

ZACADA

[-0.20/0.83]

[2-5-35-2-8]

25

SIR CHARLES ROAD

[0.22/1.57]

[0-4-14-0-0]

26

NAKEETA

[0.20/1.00]

[2-0-6-2-0]

27

SOLE IMPACT

[0.39/1.57]

[3-3-10-2-0]

28

MISS ADMIRATION

[0.91/4.33]

[9-11-12-0-0]

29

A PRINCE OF ARRAN

[0.00/0.80]

[3-0-10-4-1]

30

LIBRAN

[-0.05/0.82]

[3-1-10-4-2]

31

TRAP FOR FOOLS

[0.07/1.18]

[2-10-2-10-0]

32

PRIZE MONEY

[0.14/1.00]

[4-3-14-7-0]

33

GALLIC CHIEFTAIN

[0.50/2.20]

[3-6-15-0-0]

34

LORD FANDANGO

[-0.33/0.55]

[2-0-13-6-3]

35

MEGABLAST

[0.64/1.75]

[8-2-8-4-0]

36

DAL HARRAILD

[0.53/2.56]

[3-13-14-2-0]

37

WALL OF FIRE

[0.09/1.00]

[2-4-10-6-0]

38

PATRICK ERIN

[0.43/1.43]

[7-4-11-6-0]

39

RISING RED

[0.33/1.18]

[3-0-7-2-0]

40

NORTHWEST PASSAGE

[0.33/1.61]

[3-8-15-4-0]

41

BRIMHAM ROCKS

[0.53/2.43]

[4-15-13-4-0]

42

YOGI

[0.36/1.57]

[5-9-16-6-0]

43

JAAMEH

[0.41/2.14]

[2-7-12-0-1]

44

MIDTERM

[-0.13/0.63]

[4-1-21-14-0]

45

SIXTIES GROOVE

[0.14/0.87]

[3-0-7-4-0]

46

AZURO

[0.17/1.25]

[1-4-10-3-0]

47

THINKIN’ BIG

[0.68/1.80]

[12-1-10-4-1]


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2018 at 7:02pm
Thank you Progold.  

Though suspect some might be interested in an explanation of the figures/numbers in the two sets of profiles.

(and for my own benefit just how just how Thinkin' Big for instance gets a "12" in the brilliant category).
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2018 at 8:08pm
Many thanks! Your selections based on these will be interesting & even more so, another look post race Smile
Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Progold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 29 Oct 2018 at 8:51pm
Not really a place to go back to the basics of dosage, but happy to answer any questions.  

A brief overview of dosage from the website

The principles of Dosage analysis however are founded on the basis that each of these chefs contributed a predictable characteristic to each of his progeny. 

These characteristics have been classified into 5 major categories (Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid and Professional) that cover the range from speed to stamina.  There is however some overlap in their practical application, as certain stallions may contribute in two aptitudinal groups.  The assignments are made to most accurately reflect the traits a stallion most consistently and predictably transmit to his progeny.  A key feature of these principles is that a champion thoroughbred will have a balance of these characteristics within their pedigree. 

In respect of Thinkin' Big, a lot of his Brilliant rating comes from the classification of his damsire, Tale Of The Cat as a brilliant influence.  His classification might not be the most appropriate ever, as it would have been much better to have classified his sire, Storm Cat as a chef-de-race, but Dr Roman was adamant that his classification was an accurate reflection.  I, for one, do not remain convinced, and would be looking at reviewing this.  Similarly, there is a case for High Chaparral to be classified in the not too distant future as well as a classic influence which would change the balance a little.  Nevertheless, Thinkin' Big with a profile of [0.68/1.80] fits quite nicely in a staying range especially for Australian stayers.  He is favourite for the VRC Derby and that is a race that is often not won by a dour staying type.  Usually they need to be relatively mature at this stage of their 3yo season, which is often a little different type than that which wins the AJC Derby in the following Autumn.  His racing style would also suggest that he is what John Hutchinson once referred to as a fast stayer.  That is a stayer like Might And Power that was able to extend his speed over a greater distance that many others.  Franco Varola of course suggested the correlation between dosage and development/typology rather than just speed.  Just out of interest, Shocking's dosage profile was [0.43/1.84] while Viewed's was [0.50/1.90].  Neither was a 3yo though, and the last 3yo to win the Cup was Skipton in 1941 I think, so maybe we are in uncharted territory.  From memory, the last 3yo to run was Arena in 1998 whose dosage profile read [0.41/2.03] so not all that different to that of Thinkin' Big at the end of the day.

One small observation on dosages and recent winners of the Cup.  It seems that European stayers who have raced in Australia can win the race with dosages in the lower ranges (around 1.00 and under).  Those from overseas first up into the race with dosages in this range have not been successful.  The raiders with dosages more in the versatile range (around 1.50) are more likely to be competitive.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Progold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Oct 2018 at 12:07pm
To give a little point of reference for these figures, here are the dosage profiles of the last 10 Melbourne Cup winners using the current ANZ list of chefs-de-race.  Dunaden is the outlier in these, simply because his pedigree includes few chefs-de-race and certainly few stallions that we recognise here.  It is a good cautionary tale about using figures on face value.  They are a tool by which we can develop out understanding of the thoroughbred.

2017

Rekindling (GB)

[0.18/1.20]

[3-4-10-4-1]

2016

Almandin (GER)

[-0.06/0.78]

[2-3-18-9-0]

2015

Prince Of Penzance (NZ)

[0.20/1.22]

[13-3-23-3-8]

2014

Protectionist (GER)

[0.03/0.80]

[5-0-22-9-0]

2013

Fiorente (IRE)

[0.07/0.75]

[2-2-16-8-0]

2012

Green Moon (IRE)

[-0.21/0.55]

[3-0-18-13-0]

2011

Dunaden (FR)

[0.69/5.40]

[0-13-1-2-0]

2010

Americain (USA)

[0.34/1.46]

[6-2-22-1-1]

2009

Shocking (AUS)

[0.43/1.84]

[6-7-31-0-0]

2008

Viewed (AUS)

[0.50/1.90]

[8-9-21-4-0]


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Oct 2018 at 12:26pm
The "Classic" clearly comes to the fore in those profiles.

But perhaps that's because there may be a preponderance in that grading among the Chefs?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Progold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 Oct 2018 at 11:46pm
If it was a simple case of numerical advantage of classic influences, then you would expect a similar balance across a range of the thoroughbred population.  Comparing this to the dosages of a Golden Slipper shows a very different balance, and in fact, there are probably only two stallions that have sired these runners that appear in the top 20 on the Australian Sires Table.  But in a way we have seen an increase in Classic chefs to some degree as we rarely see the true stamina sires any more.  The nature of the Australian thoroughbred in particular means that few stallions are supported who produce progeny that cannot perform at least as relatively early 3yo's.  The days of the slow maturing stayer that you find still in the paddock as a 4yo have long gone.  There is little doubt that Zabeel has been the ultimate staying influence in ANZ in recent times, but his progeny even though they were relatively slowly maturing, in general were showing promise by the end of their 3yo season having dominated the AJC Derby in the Autumn even if he sired only one winner of the VRC Derby.   His classification was Classic/Professional.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Progold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Nov 2018 at 8:53am
The final field

1

BEST SOLUTION

[0.35/1.42]

[7-6-21-6-0]

2

THE CLIFFSOFMOHER

[-0.09/0.69]

[4-3-22-15-0]

3

MAGIC CIRCLE

[-0.06/0.78]

[2-1-8-4-1]

4

CHESTNUT COAT

[0.67/2.00]

[4-0-8-0-0]

5

MUNTAHAA

[0.40/2.08]

[1-7-11-1-0]

6

SOUND CHECK

[0.44/1.67]

[3-1-12-0-0]

7

WHO SHOT THEBARMAN

[0.41/1.46]

[7-4-16-5-0]

8

ACE HIGH

[0.44/1.56]

[8-4-15-4-1]

9

MARMELO

[0.04/0.96]

[4-6-25-10-1]

10

AVILIUS

[0.61/2.45]

[7-9-22-0-0]

11

YUCATAN

[0.03/0.81]

[5-3-18-12-0]

12

AUVRAY

[-0.09/0.69]

[3-0-12-6-1]

13

FINCHE

[0.13/0.95]

[6-3-19-10-0]

14

RED CARDINAL

[-0.05/0.73]

[4-2-20-12-0]

15

VENGEUR MASQUE

[-0.06/0.76]

[3-0-25-8-0]

16

VENTURA STORM

[0.43/1.80]

[2-3-8-1-0]

17

A PRINCE OF ARRAN

[0.00/0.80]

[3-0-10-4-1]

18

NAKEETA

[0.20/1.00]

[2-0-6-2-0]

19

SIR CHARLES ROAD

[0.22/1.57]

[0-4-14-0-0]

20

ZACADA

[-0.20/0.83]

[2-5-35-2-8]

21

RUNAWAY

[0.78/2.76]

[10-6-15-1-0]

22

YOUNGSTAR

[0.13/1.21]

[3-6-17-4-2]

23

CROSS COUNTER

[0.08/0.89]

[5-3-18-10-0]

24

ROSTROPOVICH

[0.31/1.21]

[7-3-15-7-0]

 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Nov 2018 at 7:00pm
Well for the most part the dosages have certainly stood up, even if many of the beaten division had similar profiles.
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