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Melbourne Cup 2019

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Progold View Drop Down
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Joined: 20 Feb 2007
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Progold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Topic: Melbourne Cup 2019
    Posted: 03 Nov 2019 at 6:16pm
Dosages for this year's race.

My tips, if you are interested are on the website www.dosageprofile.com as usual.

1

CROSS COUNTER

[0.13/1.00]

[5-5-18-10-0]

2

MER DE GLACE

[0.40/1.40]

[7-0-21-2-0]

3

MASTER OF REALITY

[-0.23/0.67]

[1-3-16-8-2]

4

MIRAGE DANCER

[0.10/1.07]

[2-6-15-7-0]

5

SOUTHERN FRANCE

[0.17/0.96]

[9-2-23-12-0]

6

HUNTING HORN

[0.19/1.40]

[2-13-12-8-1]

7

LATROBE

[0.08/1.06]

[2-7-19-8-0]

8

MUSTAJEER

[0.38/1.67]

[2-2-12-0-0]

9

ROSTROPOVICH

[0.31/1.21]

[7-3-15-7-0]

10

TWILIGHT PAYMENT

[0.00/0.93]

[1-4-15-6-0]

11

FINCHE

[0.11/0.96]

[6-7-19-14-0]

12

PRINCE OF ARRAN

[0.00/0.80]

[3-0-10-4-1]

13

RAYMOND TUSK

[0.16/1.27]

[3-8-34-4-1]

14

DOWNDRAFT

[0.00/0.76]

[4-1-16-9-0]

15

MAGIC WAND

[-0.05/0.77]

[3-4-19-12-0]

16

NEUFBOSC (FR)

[0.75/5.67]

[1-13-6-0-0]

17

SOUND

[0.44/1.67]

[3-1-12-0-0]

18

SURPRISE BABY

[0.47/2.48]

[1-14-19-0-0]

19

CONSTANTINOPLE

[0.08/0.96]

[5-6-25-12-0]

20

IL PARADISO

[0.15/1.13]

[4-11-21-12-0]

21

STEEL PRINCE

[0.10/1.05]

[3-6-25-8-0]

22

THE CHOSEN ONE

[0.37/1.97]

[6-15-19-2-4]

23

VOW AND DECLARE

[1.00/5.67]

[6-8-6-0-0]

24

YOUNGSTAR

[0.08/1.13]

[3-6-33-4-2]

 


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GAJ View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GAJ Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Nov 2019 at 6:05pm
Thank you Progold, at a quick glance as I haven't had the time to study the entrants as yet, seeing Surprise Baby with out professional or solid in the mix behind her yet she has won over 3200..
I think the Diva had a similar profile from memory, I may be a bit out on this correct me if so.
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Progold View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Progold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Nov 2019 at 6:21pm
Very true there, and with Makybe Diva she was by Desert King who probably was more of a stamina influence than his pedigree suggests. She did have stamina influences in her fifth generation though. Winx is another without stamina influences in her four generation profile, and perhaps Street Cry contributed a little more stamina than his pedigree suggests, although I suspect a classification of his damsire Troy would go a long way to remedying this. Surprise Baby is by Shocking, another Melbourne Cup winner with no stamina ratings and again by Street Cry. My suspicion though is that the Cup over the last decade has become more of a traditional staying race thanks to the imports. Mustajeer is another this year without stamina ratings but again probably more due to a lack of classification of sires like Medicean or Vettori. Neufbosc is another like this, but I probably suggest that stamina lines that are unproven under local conditions are probably ones that I would rather watch rather than invest in.
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Gay3 View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Nov 2019 at 8:03pm
I see you're going for the 3peat having tipped both the CC & Derby winners one out Clap
Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
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Progold View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Progold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Nov 2019 at 9:18pm
I must admit that it has been a good year tipping. Started with The Bostonian in the Doomben 10000 and then Samadoubt in the Winx Stakes both at around $41. Kolding was a standout in the Epsom, and Come Play With Me in the Metropolitan was a handy one. 

I must admit that I don't know how they will beat the Japanese horse on the basis of his Caulfield Cup win and he is exactly the type of imported horse that had success over the years.
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Progold View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (2) Thanks(2)   Quote Progold Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 2019 at 10:50am
A few observations on the Cup.

Firstly, the pace was surprising. This is how we used to see Cups run when Australian horses used to win. Given the large overseas contingent, not sure how that happened.

Further to that comment, the first nine horses finished within 2.1 lengths of the winner. Over 3200m? Has anyone ever seen this before. The first sixteen finished within 5 lengths of the winner. to put this into some perspective. Danny O'brien's very good stayer, Master O'Reilly finished 4th in both 2008 and 2009. He was beaten 2.5 lengths and 3.75 lengths respectively.

More importantly though, have we seen the emergence of a new staying stallion in Declaration Of War. He sired the Derby winner on Saturday, and now the Cup winner so it has been a huge week for him. The average winning distance of his progeny is a little over 10 furlongs which is something we have not seen much of in recent times. Vow And Declare had a trivial dosage profile, meaning that not one of his individual ratings was above 10. I suspect that there is already a case to look at classification of this stallion as a chef-de-race given his results, and more importantly that he seems to be offering something that is unaccounted for in his pedigree to date. His sire War Front has an AWD of only 8 furlongs, although we see his damsire a stallion called Rubiano by Fappiano. Fappiano interestingly is classified as a I/C chef in spite of having an AWD of 10 furlongs for his progeny. His damsire was Nijinsky whose progeny had an AWD of 11.2 furlong. These stamina influences have obviously been pushed back in the pedigree of Declaration Of War and even War Front. The other interesting part of Declaration Of War's pedigree is that his damsire is Rahy whose name has come up from time to time when discussions of new chefs arise. His pedigree though features a number of chefs. Rahy has an AWD of his progeny of 9.4 furlongs, while his sire, Blushing Groom (10.5f) and damsire Halo (10.4f) would suggest that his contribution was a little more speed than those influences deeper in his pedigree. On face value it appears to me that Declaration Of War is indeed something special in terms of contributing stamina to his progeny, and this is something that is not accounted for in his pedigree, and it will not be reflected by classifying those stallions in his pedigree that have not already been classified. My initial thought is that a likely Classic/Professional rating may be appropriate in the future. We must bear in mind though that Vow And Declare is from the stallion's first crop in Australia and he is only a 4yo. An argument can be made that the performances of his 3yo's suggest a classic influence, but I think we need to see what the future will bring. Vow And Declare did not start until a 3yo, and his best performance really came at that age in his last two 3yo starts. He does look as if he is getting stronger as he matures, and I think we will see that with more of his progeny who may continue to improve as 4yo's and even older horses.
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GAJ View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote GAJ Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Nov 2019 at 2:12pm
I Loved the finish, such an even race of good horses, especially liked the run of Surprise Baby.
Vow and Declare can only get better, he's been given time. Look forward to seeing him in it next year.
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