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Lonhro - A trend appears

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James0330 View Drop Down
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    Posted: 24 May 2010 at 1:06am
Just like to talk about Lonhro who is as most of us would know was a wonderful racehorse who won over 5 Million in prizemoney and 10+ Group 1's winning up too 2000m.

I as others may have noticed a trend with him as a sire (Standing under the Darley banner)... that is the inability to sire any quality Middle Distance Stayers or horses that can perform at the top level (G1) over 1600m+.

Lonhro comes from a quality Middle Distance family, his Sire Octagonal won the AJC Derby & 2 BMW Stakes over 2400m at G1 level aswell as numerous other Group1 events at or around 2000m and his Grandsire is ofcourse Zabeel who has produced countless top line stayers who are renowned for big stage success in major staying classics. Octagonal is also as we know from the best Australasian family in the Stud Book with the likes of Don Eduardo (AJC Derby), Tristalove (Australian Oaks), Danewin (Multiple G1 2000m Winner), Kempinsky (VRC Derby Placegetter), Viking Ruler & De Beers. Lonhro's female family is represented chiefly by top sire Grosvenor (VRC Derby) aswell as National Gallery (WATC Derby), Mahaya (AJC Oaks) & Requiem the winner of the Saab Handicap.

Back to Lonhro, his oldest crops are rising 5yo which i know is young for a sire however has given us time to see this trend. Lonhro has only sired two winners at 2000m+ and the furthest of those was at 2025m by a horse in Rowland who has a stamina laden female line. This maybe the root of the issue in that he is largely being bred to sprinter milers (Due to Darleys obsession with speed). Lonhro should in theory however still be siring more 2000m+ due to his pedigree and racetrack performances.

Of course there is Denman who won the G1 Golden Rose over 1400m (A race for the breeding industry IMO) however could not run out the 1600m of the Australian Guineas. I think Denman can run 1600m however in top class company his sire may fail him as he has seemed to inherit Lohnro's inability to perform at top level high pressure races (Well noted for his performance in the Cox Plate).

He is though churning out the winners from his large crops but has developed a niche in siring a multitude of metropolitan, Listed, Group 3 and 2 winners at distances primarily from 1000m to 1600m which as mentioned is i believe largely due to not having the real mental toughness to withstand high pressure racing as all top liners require and the female families of these horses primarly sprinter miler orientated.

I'll go out on a limb and say that Lonhro will not:
Produce a G1 2200m+ WINNER
Produce a Sydney or Melbourne Cup PLACEGETTER
Produce a G2 2400m+ WINNER
Produce a G1 Queensland Derby, VRC Derby or AJC Derby WINNER
Produce a VRC Derby PLACEGETTER
Produce a Cox Plate WINNER

I dont see how a horse with Lonhro's racetrack performances (5 Group 1 2000m Wins) and coming from a classic Middle Distance Staying family on the Maternal & Paternal side cannot transmit that on to his progeny regularly at Group Level over 2000m.

Ideas & Thoughts?

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ianb View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote ianb Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 May 2010 at 1:19am
The same was said about Redoute's Choice unstill he started getting more stouter mares in the barn.
 
Darley are not the only farms obsessed with speed, they all are, because that is what the trainers and owners want.
 
Lets just wait and see
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Biggles Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 May 2010 at 1:34am
One point I'd like to mention is that all the Lonhro's that Darley are racing still have the Woodlands brand on them....so in fact when the ones that Darley bred start racing you may find that they are out of some of their European more stoutly bred mares. 
 
Quest for Fame was another Woodlands stallion that should have been a sire of stayers, but apart from a couple of fillies I can think of didn't really achieve much in the way of stayers.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote James0330 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 May 2010 at 1:36am
Yea i know Darley arent the only ones but you look at most of the female families that Lonhro is bred too and u know what to expect, just typical stakes or metropolitan sprinting families where the mare would need an oxygen tank to run 2000m.

Arrowfield has a better setup in that it has a larger range of mares to send to Redoutes as he gets alot from outside the farm, however Darley have all those woodlands mares aswell as knowing that Lonhro is making them alot of money with the mares he is being bred to so they dont see a point in sending different staying types too him.

Also the fact that Lonhro is alot more stoutly bred than Redoutes would in theory would prevent the Redoutes thing happening. I dont think Redoutes will sire a 2400m+ Open Age/WFA G1 Winner too.

Is it fair to say that Redoutes Fillies stay better than his Colts?, i just dont see him siring a VRC Derby or AJC Derby winner however i think he could get a couple more Oaks winners...but then Miss Finland & Samantha Miss did it on class.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote James0330 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 May 2010 at 1:47am
Good point 'Biggles'. Lets hope so :)

Does anyone think that Lonhro is passing on his trait of not being able to face an 'Acid' test?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote scamanda Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 May 2010 at 2:50am
How many group one winning stayers have been bred in Australia, with Australian bloodlines, in the last 10 years?

Many of the countries best sires only threw sprinter milers.
Todman, Vain, Rubiton to name just a few.

I'll take a Lonhro ahead of a Pentire.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote magic_idol Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 May 2010 at 2:54am
Way...Way...Way too early for this discussion as his Breed are still Fairly youngWink
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote troppo75 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 May 2010 at 3:07am
Personally if he cant sire a horse to win over 2200m I think we should start a petition to geld Lonhro!

Yeah thats right, stupid under performing sire he is. Really shouldn't even be at stud!
Now having passed 1000 posts I feel you are all so much the wiser for my having said... stuff!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote James0330 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 May 2010 at 3:26am
maybe a tad over the top 'troppo75'. It just doesnt make sense that his progeny arent performing over longer trips or even that his other horses are looking like they want further or atleast can stand up too the pressure of big G1 races.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Mr Prospector Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 May 2010 at 3:55am

Darley seem to have a production line of very talented Lonhro's that are very competitive at Sat city level with a good smatering of stakes types as well . Most would say he is going very well .

If he throws primarily sprinter / milers I'd say thats a good thing for the Aussie market also .As far as stepping up to G1 level maybe they just don't develop and improve with age .
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote scamanda Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 May 2010 at 4:08am
LEADING SIRES OF STAKES WINNERS 09/10
SireFoaledWnrs/Wins
Redoute's Choice199613/15
Lonhro199811/18
Encosta de Lago199311/14
Zabeel19869/10
More Than Ready (USA)19978/12
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote scamanda Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 May 2010 at 4:08am
LEADING SIRES OF STAKES PERFORMERS 09/10
SireFoaledSPerf
Encosta de Lago199333
Redoute's Choice199627
Lonhro199824
Zabeel198619
Fastnet Rock200117
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote scamanda Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 May 2010 at 4:09am
Yeah, he's having a shocker.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote furious Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 May 2010 at 4:45am
Well if Danzero bred a Derby winner (Fairway) to a stouter New Zealand bred mare and the speed machine Hurricane Sky also performed better with the stouter New Zealand families put to him, maybe Lonhro will throw a stayer.  But it can be said he did throw to the speedy influences in his pedigree.  Its the puzzle on how to get the more stamina orrientated part to come to the fore that is the breeders challenge.
 
Like said above with Redoute's Choice he will at least get some middle distance performers and the class is there for a derby or oaks or two.  After all look at some of his stud mates now.  Shamardal is certainly getting middle distance types and if Lonhro gets any of his daughters who's to say he won't throw back to the stamina which is also in his pedigree.
 
Look at Denman with Vain, Marscay and a female line also having thrown a Golden Slipper winner there was always a very good chance that a mile would be as far as he went.  Demerit's dam was a miler.  Beaded is a great grandaughter of Sasha dam of the brilliant two year old Shaybisc.  O'Lonhro's dam was almost a 1400m specialist (1300 - 1500) for her stakes wins.  Sainthood perhaps had the biggest chance of going the furthest of his stakes winners so far with Indian Raj in his pedigree and guess what we find a 2000 LR in his list of wins.  So the chances seem fine to me.
 
Now as Lonhro is throwing good stakes winners from these types of mares maybe his pedigree is somehow overlooking the more stamina orientated side of Zabeel and Sir Tristram but to my mind he has every chance of getting a middle distance stayer if put to a mare like Femina Fashion who ran so well yesterday.
 
Or if the Zabeel cross works even Faint Perfume would be a possiblity.  Our best lines have all  been put to speed now and if he didn't perform over these mares then he would of failed at stud and this wouldn't even have been talked about.  Just know that most weekends there will be on average two Lonhro's winning somewhere in the city and most stallions can't get close to that figure.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Run For Fun Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 May 2010 at 4:52am
Don't know where this is heading exactly, however congrats to young James0330 for stimulating some excellent debate.  Which will hopefully continue.  Thumbs Up
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote James0330 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 May 2010 at 4:55am
'scamanda' im not saying he isnt going well because he is a star and churns out the winners and stakes winners i just doubt his ability to sire top class G1 horses and horses over a trip.

Dont get me wrong i think he is a very good young sire.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote James0330 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 May 2010 at 4:57am
Haha thanks 'Run For Fun'. Yea im just trying to get peoples opinion on whether they think he will sire top quality G1 WFA performers or G1 stayers lol...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote James0330 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 May 2010 at 5:10am
'Furious' ...Danzero had Danehill on his side whereas Lonhro doesnt...and as we know Danehill can do anything to a pedigree.

You made some interesting points 'Furious' i just dont think that there are going to be a greater number of more stoutly bred mares being bred to him in the next 10years as all these current woodlands mares which have already produced foals by him will regularly go back to him because those foals are so good.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote furious Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 May 2010 at 6:10am
Yes the don't break what is working is a standard even in my book.  But there are outside breeders using him and who is to say some stouter mares wont also produce.  I stood up and said Redoute's would get a middle distance horse and he did.  Yes he had Danehill and so did Danzero yet Lonhro is needed it only for all those same Danehill line mares out there. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote wallinga Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 May 2010 at 10:23am
Originally posted by James0330 James0330 wrote:


Also the fact that Lonhro is alot more stoutly bred than Redoutes would in theory would prevent the Redoutes thing happening. I dont think Redoutes will sire a 2400m+ Open Age/WFA G1 Winner too.

Is it fair to say that Redoutes Fillies stay better than his Colts?, i just dont see him siring a VRC Derby or AJC Derby winner however i think he could get a couple more Oaks winners...but then Miss Finland & Samantha Miss did it on class.
 
I would suggest that Lonhro isn't more stoutely bred than Redoute's, in fact most of the stamina influences are on the dams side. Octagonal is the only offspring of Eight Carat to win a G1 over a mile and a half. Diamond Lover was arecord breaking sprinter, Mouawad had speed and Don Eduardo and Commands are also siring speed horses. Plus Eight Carat herself was a half sister to one of Europe's greatest sprinters Habibti.
 
On his dam side he's from the family of Grosvenor and Mahaya but Straight Strike is a speed influence and importantly Lonhro is built less like a classic animal than Occy.
 
Redoute's is however by an incredibly versatile sire (with His Majesty as a stamina influence) from a mare by Canny Lad ( a sire of several oaks and derby winners) from a mare by stamina influence Nijinsky. He's from a family that has produced several G1 winners at a mile and ahalf including two Belmont winners Irish Oaks winners etc.
 
Redoute's is also from a half sister to Umatilla a perrenial two mile sire. Plus he (and a lot of his fillies and colts) are built like big strong staying horses.
 
I think lonhro will be a 1400m - 2000m influence whereas the only thing keeping Redoute's from providing more 2400m G1 WFA winners (there's only one of those in oz) is that his best colts and fillies are packed off to stud. His staying horses aren't gelded and become these big heavy animals and the more compact close coupled horses are inheritantly geared towards sprinting.
 
These are just opinions however, I think both stallions are great and... gulp I also like Occy!!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bradjm Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 May 2010 at 6:33pm
Just off the top of my head wasn't shadea a sprinter ?
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote bradjm Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 24 May 2010 at 6:53pm
The other thing I would mention is rc has access to a wonderful pool of zabeel mares that have introduced some stamina to their pedigrees.

Anyway never say never who would have though snippets would sire a 2000m g1 winner.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote buff Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 May 2010 at 1:33am
Originally posted by James0330 James0330 wrote:

Good point 'Biggles'. Lets hope so :)

Does anyone think that Lonhro is passing on his trait of not being able to face an 'Acid' test?
 
His australian cup win wasn't an acid test?Embarrassed Nearly got put through the fence but picked himself up and showed true grit to win from a hopeless positionClap
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote James0330 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 May 2010 at 3:28am
Australian Cup isnt a great race IMO 'buff', sure it was a fantastic performance but a Cox Plate win would have put him up with Sunline, Northerly, Kingston Town yet he failed to do so.

Interesting 'wallinga' i would have thought it would be clear that Lonhro's sire line is alot stouter than Redoutes' sire line, u know... Zabeel and Sir Tristram being the best two Australasian Staying sires plus Sir Ivor who won an English Derby and would be rated as one of the better Derby winners. Don Eduardo has Divine Rebel aswell and he still did win an AJC Derby so i would still count him as a staying influence in the family.

I think you might need to look more deeply at Octagonal's dam side because it clearly shows a multitude of 2000m+ types from it.

Sure Redoutes has some staying line in his pedigree but 1600m saw him out whereas Lonhro was strong at 2000m horse.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote The Muffin Man Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 May 2010 at 3:40am
Forget he went around in his first Cox Plate, Beadman never put the horse into the race. The second time he went around, he was beaten by a horse that won 2 Cox Plates, and ran third in another. FOO has just about as good a record in Cox Plates as Sunline so I don't really think Lonhro being beaten by that particular horse should be some sort of point of shame.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote wallinga Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 May 2010 at 4:34am
Sir Tristram and Zabeel are the only reason Lonhro has any pretensions to stamina (Sir Ivor got 2400 on class alone). Don Eduardo, Octagonal, Kaapstad etc all did it because the line entitled them to. The immediate eight carat family is speed based. It's a branch of Mumtaz Mahal that has been for some time. As far as Shadea's pedigree. Once again, unless it's as a direct result of Sir Tristram's influence, most horses in the immediate pedigree are at best milers.
 
Redoute's pedigree is far more versatile (see previous post) just because a horse raced a certain way doesn't mean his stock will, just ask Westerner
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote heavygoing Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Jun 2010 at 3:48am
Originally posted by James0330 James0330 wrote:



He is though churning out the winners from his large crops but has developed a niche in siring a multitude of metropolitan, Listed, Group 3 and 2 winners at distances primarily from 1000m to 1600m which as mentioned is i believe largely due to not having the real mental toughness to withstand high pressure racing as all top liners require and the female families of these horses primarly sprinter miler orientated.
........

I dont see how a horse with Lonhro's racetrack performances (5 Group 1 2000m Wins) and coming from a classic Middle Distance Staying family on the Maternal & Paternal side cannot transmit that on to his progeny regularly at Group Level over 2000m.

Ideas & Thoughts?

Lonhro did not have mental toughness? The fact that he didn't win what Victorians seem to consider the sole arbiter of greatness does not take away from that fact that was was consistently excellent. Lonhro didn't know that he would be only judged (by Victorians! :P) on his Cox Plate performances. Would have thought he showed some ticker in his Australian Cup win and his Yalumba win over Sunline showed that he could prevail over a great horse in a dogfight. He certainly had mental toughness for mine -- you don't win so much so consistently without it. My that I have got my rant out of the way...
 
I don't know that you can say his progeny don't have "mental toughness."  Beaded, for example, seems to try her heart out every start, and seems to always fight back.
 
Re the siring of middle distance horses, I think it is far too early to tell. I understand that his third crop will be his best and as it was his best book of mares to date (though stand to be corrected). He did though tend to serve mainly sprinter-miler type mares, especially in early books owing to the Woodlands broodmare band. As others have said, Denman, Demerit, O' Lonhros female families were very much sprinters -- it is no suprise to seem them fail to get 1600-2000m in top company, especially as 3yos. I just don't think he has really seen stouter mares just yet. Don't forget that Lonhro didn't win any of his 2000m races until he was 4 and 5, so perhaps that is an element too.
 
In terms of the future, I am sure he will produce some top class 1600m-2000m horses. A lot depends IMO on how closely breeders want to line breed if not Sir Tristram, then certainly Zabeel. How many non-Zabeel, Sir T line broodmares are out there? The fact that he probably won 't be  able to breed to Zabeel (many matings would be be 3 x 3) will probably hinder him a little. But then, he may well nick well with Montjeu, High Chapparal, Sharmadal etc. progeny.
 
Over to others....
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Neil Murphy Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Jun 2010 at 7:50am
I absolutely agree.

Having done some digging into his stats, there are a few interesting things that come up.

Given his Woodlands background, it is no surprise that he has been mated heavily with Canny Lad, Quest for Fame, Night Shift, Strategic and Grand Lodge mares. Not only have these stallions been from good to outstanding broodmare sires, they have tended to be the cream of the Woodlands crop. To this end, you will note that these are not staying stallions of note.

The average upper winning range of the broodmares of Lonhro's top 100 performers to date is 1379m. The more interesting fact is that those broodmares that raced averaged over $150,000 in prizemoney. With Shame, Rose of Danehill and Ponton Flyer just short of the $1million mark, he didn't miss out on mares that could gallop.

Lonhro has been able to stamp his foals, which is an important aspect in my opinion. You can spot a Lonhro at 100 paces and I certainly think there is much more to come. I just wouldn't be backing one of his in the Melbourne Cup or a Derby just yet.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Docker Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Jun 2010 at 9:51am
You look to be very correct at this stage James but having read Tesio's theory that stallions produce more stout runners with age which I thought to be rubbish at the time but have since observed to be very correct.
Redoute's choice is a prime example and many others Lonhro will probably throw a good stayer at some stage.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Observer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Jun 2010 at 3:09am
Originally posted by Docker Docker wrote:

You look to be very correct at this stage James but having read Tesio's theory that stallions produce more stout runners with age which I thought to be rubbish at the time but have since observed to be very correct.
Redoute's choice is a prime example and many others Lonhro will probably throw a good stayer at some stage.
 
Now that is interesting Docker. Could you shed some light on the subject such as where you have read this theory attributed to Tesio. Also you say that you have observed this theory to be very correct, can you provide statistical evidence that will confirm this ?
 
Without any evidence of my own at this stage  to confirm your observation either way I may hazard a guess that if this were true the practice by stud masters to send a new stallion mares with speed oriented pedigrees in his early years at stud in the quest to get 2 year old winners may be a factor in this perception.
 
What I have observed is what I call "first season sire syndrome" whereby a stallion starts off with a bang siring a high percentage of winners to runners and stakes winners never to repeat that effort to that extent again.
 
Thoughts anyone ?
 
 
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