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Long Range Weather Forecast

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acacia alba View Drop Down
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote acacia alba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Aug 2016 at 11:00pm
Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by Gay3 Gay3 wrote:

As long as the fingers & brain are in order, you've little to worry about  LOL Sounds like you're in dire need of some cannabis oil, something mere mortals such as you & I can only dream about obtaining Wink
      I'm telling tales out of school now but experimenting with these shady chemicals once has left me with a stiff neck.
    My memory doesn't recall what it actually was but it started with a V.

Vitamins maybe Big smile
animals before people.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 03 Aug 2016 at 11:10am
Originally posted by acacia alba acacia alba wrote:

Originally posted by maccamax maccamax wrote:

Originally posted by Gay3 Gay3 wrote:

As long as the fingers & brain are in order, you've little to worry about  LOL Sounds like you're in dire need of some cannabis oil, something mere mortals such as you & I can only dream about obtaining Wink
      I'm telling tales out of school now but experimenting with these shady chemicals once has left me with a stiff neck.
    My memory doesn't recall what it actually was but it started with a V.

Vitamins maybe Big smile
                   VIX     it was A>A>
BEWARE of QLD Labor's 15% TAX on GAMBLING.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Aug 2016 at 8:01pm

Evening Update, August 16th.

Posted on AnthonyPosted in Premium

Tonights Update : Could the weather ramp up any further?

Good evening all, hope you are all doing well. Remember back a couple of months, I said I would let you all know when the real move happens?

I’m now letting you know. It is on like you would not believe, and the people who had doubts that it was going to turn wetter will now become believers.

Whilst I was in the tractor slashing today, I recalled this.

ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom

If you recall, I showed you this because the El Nino had left a lot of energy in the weather system. And now its about to be utilised, with global temperatures still elevated at 0.39c above normal.

All this extra energy means extra water vapour, in the form of humidity in the atmosphere. Sooner or later, our day of reckoning was always coming.

So for the next few months, mother nature is going to put on a show, and demonstrate quite clearly that it is in charge, and not everyone on Earth driving SUVs or using their air cons.

The blocking pattern was indeed a sign that it wasn’t aligned, and needed some more time. It appears that hurdled has been cleared, so let the fun begin.

 

Before beginning, I will cover the system on Friday briefly, we should see a few mm for the Eyre Peninsula, and then increasing further East.

The trough is likely to tap into moisture near Adelaide, so from there Eastwards falls of 10 – 20 mm are likely, including Victoria and Southern NSW.

auswide_irenh1_latest (25)

If you look at the satellite photo, you can see what I has stated on the 4th of this month has happened, with surface troughs now developing in response to the heat inland.

This is what will be the catalyst for the rain to begin to develop on Thursday over SA, and then further on Friday into Victoria and NSW.

In fact the more i look at this system, the more I think we may get a surprise with how much rain we may get from this.

The front is well back off the coast of WA, over the next 12 hours or so it will develop an upper trough where the arrow is indicating, and then be pushed East.

So from tomorrow onwards I will be focussing on this until its done.

So after this the big system next week looks massive, in fact I believe this will be the biggest August event as far as I can recall. Thats how big it appears to me.

gfs_z500a_ausnz_31

Every day with every run it still gives us this huge upper Low scenario, so this is definitely looking likely to be favourable for much of SA if its positioned where this is shown to be in the above pic.

gfs_z500a_ausnz_34

The scary thing is that the GFS increases this on the Wednesday, the purple colour into Alice Springs indicates that this upper low is going to be particularly severe, so more hail drifts in the streets are likely right across the country as this gets going.

gfs_z500a_ausnz_40 (1)

And as if we need it to intensify even further, the upper low gets stronger once its into NSW on the Thursday, so this is what the GFS sees.

The Canadian also responds now with it seeing what the others are seeing, for the first time its ramped up its rainfall expectations to something a bit more believable.

cmc_total_precip_aus_41 (4)

A lot less organised, but wet nonetheless. And thats because it also feeds in lots of moisture as well, so the set up is now complete, its simply a matter of where this all plays out.

The European model is still off the scale. Here is the upper low, much more extreme than GFS.

ecmwf_z500a_ausnz_31 (1)

This is simply insanity. An upper Low of this is intensity would be hard pressed to be developing in the summer, let alone August. This is the most impressive upper low I have seen in August.

ecmwf_slp_precip_australia_31

Because the upper Low is so severe, the surface low doesn’t take long to develop either. If you look at this chart from the EC, I expect widespread heavy rain and thunderstorms to be occurring on the Southern and Eastern flank of the low where maximum upslide will be.

ecmwf_z500a_ausnz_37 (1)

As we saw this morning, it then tracks into NSW slowly, so expect the storms to follow this low, and I have a feeling the surface Low will move out to sea and the upper low may stay over land, but time will tell.

So to summarise, its going to be epic, as expected. A very period coming up. Speaking of which, here is the current radar for Adelaide.

IDR641

I wouldn’t get too excited as this band will weaken, but given it has survived this far is a good sign for both Friday and next week.

I expect this to break up somewhat as it enters Victoria later tonight, and deliver a few mms at best.

Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote acacia alba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Aug 2016 at 11:06pm
I dont care about Victor Harbour and surrounds !       Whats it going to do in the Hunter Valley this weekend ??
Rain on the parades ??    I dont care if its freezing.   I have my coat I bought for Alaska.   I just dont want it to rain and spoil my photos Cry

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Aug 2016 at 10:27am
All good acacia, nothing serious 'till about Thurs next week, enjoy your w'end & photography Tongue
Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote acacia alba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Aug 2016 at 2:46pm
Thumbs Up  Thanks.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Aug 2016 at 10:36am
This weeks' potential flood scenario averted Big smile

So this next system makes QLD the focus, Southern states will only see some showers and a few mm, although it does remain somewhat unstable.

Even NSW wont see the rain as big as expected, as you can see drier air penetrates right in to 3/4 of the state.

On the weekend, we see a better set up, and for the first time we actually see moisture moving down, rather than feeding in.

Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Go Flash Go Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 22 Aug 2016 at 3:47pm
Most excellent thunderstorm just passing through Melbourne - has put a halt to everything - very good for a Monday Thumbs Up
 
Flash flooding rain even a little hail Thumbs UpThumbs Up
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote acacia alba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Aug 2016 at 1:33am
Today here woke up sad and smokey and miserable.   This afternoon it just dropped to bloody freezing in an hour.   Then it started raining.
Spring is here LOL
Did have a nice weekend tho.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Aug 2016 at 2:14am
Where's all that lovely Global Warming gone! Cry
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote acacia alba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 Aug 2016 at 2:19am
Originally posted by Dr E Dr E wrote:

Where's all that lovely Global Warming gone! Cry

Away with the fairies LOL  , just like those who believe in it.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Nov 2016 at 8:30am

Today’s Update : The Canadian makes the breakthrough, and senses that something major is brewing.

Good morning all, hope you are all well, up early this morning because I remembered late last night I cant do an update tonight as I will be busy.

I totally forgot of course I had people coming over, so I will update this morning instead. And it works out better, because this morning the Canadian has sensed what is going on.

As I mentioned yesterday, soon enough the models will put 2 and 2 together and come up with 4.

auswide_irenh1_latest

On the satellite photo, the moisture still continues to dominate, and another burst has developed over the Gasgoyne in WA. So its clear to me what is going on, we are being saved by this ridge over Perth, the ridge over troubled waters I referred too a while back in a piece of attempted humour!

But, moisture is relentless, if you cannot get cold air to move up, it just keeps piling on in.

output_mmpwxa

Here is the animation from the Canadian showing the massive amount of moisture that will pile in next weekend and early the following week. Now, yesterday I got messages galore about the BOMs latest outlook, in particular the very high chance of a very dry December with heatwaves.

That will be almost impossible unless we see a complete shift in the pattern, there is simply no way that upper ridges can become established whilst this sort of moisture continues to pile in without any resistance.

Instead, you will see this happen.

output_4abr65

The upper pattern develops because of the moisture, it really has no choice but to do so, and that’s where things light up.

If you look at the pressure pattern, its clear what is going on.

cmc_slp_qpf6_ausnz_41

Normally, the cold air down to the far SW would come up and meet this moisture, and a big low would develop. However, this high is persisting here, so this is why the models don’t have much rain, they think the cold air wont be strong enough to interact with it.

But, I think it will do as indicated in this picture above, the cold air runs around the high and feeds up into this trough the long way around. And now canadian sees that, amplifies the upper trough, and brings rain into the SE of the country.

 

cmc_total_precip_aus_41

So here we see the first model start to realise that you simply cannot sustain so much moisture in the atmosphere without a trough developing, and over the next few days its all going to be about how strong this will be and where.

I am sensing something huge is brewing, and will make a mockery of the BOMs December outlook.

ecmwf_pwat_slp_australia_41

Lastly, the EC also has a ridiculous airmass for next weekend, it has little rainfall because it hasn’t worked out where the cold air will come from, but it will. The Canadian has worked it out, I expect this and GFS to follow over the next few days.

That’s it for this morning, quite good weather for the next week then I think it becomes very active with potentially something big on the cards.

Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Dr E Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Nov 2016 at 12:15am
Suck that all you Global Warming skeptics!!!Censored
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Nov 2016 at 7:29am
Snippets from this mornings' post:

I have been getting a lot of messages about the BOMs Seasonal outlook, in particular the hot and dry December they have forecast.

I don’t think I have seen such a savage response to it on social media, it appears to me that now everyone can see what the BOM represent. They are clearly on the take, a co-ordinated left wing organization aimed at producing fear and scare mongering for profit.

Within hours of going to print, every media news outlet was linking the outlook to their websites. Make no mistake, this was a co-ordinated alarmism strike against everyone, as clearly they are all in on the scam together.

In any case, the weather will be the judge, and whilst I think it will be quite hot and dry for periods of December, the notion of an 80% chance of below average rain and heatwaves is absurd and it is abundantly clear why.

To get any sort of heatwaves you need to see very dry air move up into the interior of the country. Whilst this ridge is sitting below WA and into the Bight, the chances of this happening are zero.

As you can see above, instead we see lots of moisture just continue to come in, this is not new, I have banging on about this for many months. And this is where the alarmism comes in, because anyone with half a brain can clearly see this, its obvious.

We saw moisture already feeding down in July from the tropics, we saw Darwin get slaughtered in September, this was always the way this was going to go, so either the BOM is ignorant, or corrupt.

And I think we all know which one. yes, its going to be hot, because its summer. But without the dry air troughs will rule, as they have been now for the last 3 weeks, and will ramp right up.

If the MJO can manage to get into Phase 4 and bring the monsoon trough in, then December will be extremely wet for Eastern Australia.

As it stands, I’m doing the Seasonal Outlooks now and I think at the least we will see average rainfall because I’m just not seeing the cold and dry air needed to form upper high pressure over the country.

Lets look at the European this morning, here is the Precipitable Water animation for next weekend, days 6 – 10.

output_miojhi

So, how do you think this will end up? Dry and hot? Laughable. And without the cold air from the South, this push from the tropics has nothing stopping it.

This is an extreme amount of moisture, if we did get a front to hook up to this, it would break December rainfall records.

To stop this momentum of moisture from the North, we need to see a massive cold front sweep up and drive cold dry air into the tropics.

ecmwf_slp_precip_australia_41

Whilst this ridge sits here, most of the cold air gets driven to NZ. It simply wont be happening, at least for the first half of the month.

So its all setting up for a very active month, as I said there will be dry areas, no doubt, and hot, not doubt.

However, nothing to the scale of the garbage we saw released by the BOM. I expect more than 50% of the country to exceed the December average for rainfall, there you go, there is my forecast, I will be very surprised if it doesn’t.

Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Beliskner Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Nov 2016 at 10:56am
I believe in some level of Climate Change, but what i don't like is how just about every variant of weather is somehow evidence that the scaremongering CC crowd is correct.

The next 7 days in my area is all forecast to be 20c-23c with a sprinkling of rain.

One week obviously means little in the great scheme of things, but it's an interesting start to the summer, considering 15-20 years ago we were being told how the beaches wouldn't be around, and everyday would be 35c+.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote acacia alba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Nov 2016 at 11:08am
Its been over 30 here all week. One day was 35 and the others have been 32/34,  and not a drop of rain, so summer is here for us.  Only one night cooled down enough to be pleasant to sleep.
Next week is predicted to be hotter.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Dec 2016 at 8:19pm
Xmas day will be very wet for some regions of this country.

Good evening everyone, hope you are all well tonight. I know I keep saying it, but I am super busy as we all are at this time of year.

As I also keep saying, the weather waits for no one and now we are starting to see things unfold for Xmas, with EC clearly out in front seeing what is going on before any of the others.

Onto current matters, we have seen some ridiculous falls of rain that have made a mockery of the dry December the BOM was calling for. And given the month is only half way, its going to get a lot worse for them.

Whilst we are on such matters, I’m going to go on the attack on social media in the next few days, as the BOM have decided to issue their 3 month outlook yesterday, 12 days ahead of schedule, for the sole reason being that so no one can see how pathetic their forecast for December was.

Instead of being accountable for the ridiculous forecast, they have simply taken it down 12 days early, so no one can see it.

Luckily, I save these things and can show you just how bad it was.

Apparently in December, we see a 75% chance that most of the country receives 1 – 5 mm, and there is an area that receives 0 mm in the NE pastoral of SA. This is just mind numbing stupidity that the model would suggest such a thing, especially when you see what it being forecast tonight.

It gets better, they forecast a very high chance of the whole country being a good possibility of being well below average.

You just have to wonder about how those employed at the National Climate Centre can even make such a forecast, I know they are corrupt and on the take, this we know, but there is simply no excuse for this. I have been in constant dialogue for months about what I was seeing and why, and even showed the flaws in the climate models. So its really a question of whether you strive to be accurate, or strive to be an alarmist lefty organization with no credibility.

I have also said if I see a decile 1 month, make no mistake, I will be forecasting it months in advance. And that day will most certainly come soon enough.

 

The current satellite photo also shows the failure of the BOM to be able to use any common sense, whatsoever. If you are going to have a year, just like this one, with cold water in the South, and warmer water in the North, you don’t have to be a Rhodes Scholar to work out what is the likely result.

We are going to be bombarded with tropical moisture, continually pushing South. As it does, it cools and forms convection, which in turn forms into troughs.

As we speak, two troughs are now developing right before our eyes, whilst the other one is still going of course. A surface trough is developing in Central Australia, and this is going to move into Western QLD and continue this procession of thunderstorms that have been belting the region.

Another upper trough is now developing in WA, this one is of particular interest because it is not being picked up very well by the models, so this could have a surprise in store late weekend, and again, that will be East of SA.

Somehow, the BOM thought we would be dominated by higher pressure, and I have spent the last 3 months showing you why that was never going to happen.

And that’s why we have seen enormous falls through Western QLD and most of NSW over the last 48 hours.

Onto other matters, both the GFS and the Canadian have been especially woeful of late, they did not analyze this system well at all. Last night when the upper low was near Mildura, both models had a trough that was on death row, so they are failing to somehow get the right data.

So tonight GFS has gone down the EC path, and takes the cyclone out off the NW coast. The Canadian however still wants to bring the rain through the middle of the country. Either scenario ends up with flooding rains.

The Canadian absolutely makes a mess of the Top End, it has so much rain thats it is astounding, and here is where it see the cyclone forming next Wednesday.

A couple of  days later it slides it down the coast, now the only place this goes form here is East, and this is where its so stupid to think that QLD and NSW will not end up being very wet. The only question is, will it make it further South to impact South Australia, or does it go quickly across the country and impact QLD and NSW.

You can see the enormity here of what is setting up, the only difference between this and the European, is that CMC sees it over Darwin, EC takes it down the NW coast. Either way, there is a deluge coming.

The European has been miles ahead with this, and here is the animation of what it does with it. It actually starts in a similar spot, but then slides it down the West coast.

Once it slides it down the coast it really gets to work, as it is likely to be in a more favourable environment further South with less wind shear, then bombs it to very decent Cat 3 or 4. You can see once it crosses the coast, it will spread the moisture far and wide.

And then it heads South, and this is where it gets very interesting.

If I had to envisage a picture to show you months ago what I was seeing as happening in summer, then this one above is it. It shows lower pressure taking over, and connecting to the cyclone.

And the biggest thing is whether or not it hits the colder air from the big upper trough down to the SW. It will be the difference between this moisture shooting South and not being used, or a massive rain event spreading across the country.

If this cold air, in the brown, comes up and meets this insane amount of moisture, it will sweep it across the country and give Southern Australia its wettest last week of the year its ever had. If it doesn’t connect, all this moisture may dive South to Antarctica, and be wasted.

 

Clearly from the EC rainfall forecast you can see the rain in WA is clearly the biggest they have seen in many years. And inevitably, it will end up in the Eastern half of the country one way or the other. So its no longer speculation tonight, its now on and we will actually be able to see it building over the next 3 or 4 days.

So that’s it for tonight, a lot going on and the crazy is about to step up a notch or two. If you have any questions, please ask them in the comments, and if you also could let me know how much rain you have and your location please, that would be great.

Before I go, I am launching a new advertising campaign with regards to the sponsorship for the SANTFA, and I will be producing an A4 flyer that I will be using there and everywhere else as well. If anyone would like to add a testimonial for this flyer, could you please let me know in the comments and I will contact you, or send me an email using the contact us form.

I’m also going to update the website and will use these on here as well. So if you are interested that would be much appreciated.

Also, I am waiting on my web developer to set up the meeting for the phone app, and then I will give you an ETA on when it will be ready. I’m going to be introducing new stuff as well on the app so I’m going to do it once, and do it properly!

Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote acacia alba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Dec 2016 at 12:43am
Well !  Its hot as, and wet as, here ATM.
I cant give you all the maps to show that, but trust me,,,,Big smile,,,,
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote horlicks Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 19 Dec 2016 at 2:55pm
If someone wants to criticise the BOM they should get their facts somewhere near the mark.

He carries on about the "lefties"and says that they have taken down the December outlook and put up the January outlook much earlier than normal.

If he had simply looked at the archives where the last several years of outlooks are posted he would have seen that this happens every December.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote JudgeHolden Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Dec 2016 at 7:38am
It's one of the hallmarks of the snake oil salesman, horlicks. Cast aspersions at legitimate products, especially if they're free (even though you yourself use their information) in the hope that the suckers will keep paying for yours.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Dec 2016 at 7:23pm
BOM & A V Weather have equal access to whatever models & data they choose to use, the interpretation is what matters to people whose livliehood depends on accuracy.
This guy & now 700+ others have decided it's better to speculate a little in order to accumulate:

Aly says:

Agree 100% with you regarding the lollipopS at BOM, they are a disgrace, and it was due to their incompetency with forecasts that I started following you Anthony, and that is some time ago now, so shows how long they have been giving crap forecasts.
As you say, will be watching just how things pan out for Vic, but I am not liking the storm aspect on Thursday, so I hope that doesn’t come off , its very close to central Melb.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Jan 2017 at 8:31pm
Oh dear, he's really on an anti BOM tirade tonight, worth a laugh at least LOL His FB post:

Good evening all, hope everyone is well tonight. Lots of weather going on, but nothing near the hype from the corrupt and agenda driven nonsense we have seen from the BOM today.

We will see a standard rain event that will drop around 20 - 40 mm through most of Southern areas of SA, possibly a bit higher back into the NW Pastoral this evening. But nowhere near an event that needs you going to get sandbags, as I saw issued earlier somewhere.

We have gone from the BOMs David Jones saying in 2008 that the new permanent drought is here to stay, to now doing a back flip and saying that we will see more floods and extreme weather only 8 years later because he has been proven incorrect.

So from now on, every rain event is a 1 in 100 year event, just so that you can expect it. What is really pathetic is I explained to clients many months of this occurring, and WHY it would occur, and it has nothing to do with CO2, which makes up 0.004% of the atmosphere, in other words a tiny trace gas.

Anyhow, there is a new weather update tonight for members, detailing the next few weeks and the subtle climatic shift that is underway and what that will mean in the weeks ahead.

I will have another update in the morning on the 1 in 1000 year floods, see you back here then.

And for balance:
Alex Gill You do throw 'biblical ' in there monthly and I'm yet to see an ark lol 🐘

Tonights Update : The BOM have become a special kind of stupid today.

Good evening all, hope you are well this evening. Lots going on, a decent system for SA, but you wouldn’t know it as the BOM are hyping this event up to be a 1 in 10 year event.

It appears every system is biblical, as it fits their agenda driven horse gelati that they spew forth regularly.

This system will deliver a solid rain band, and places may see 50 mm or so, but most places will be in the 30 mm range give or take.

However all this media releases they are doing is just utter nonsense. This is a good rain event with likely little storm activity over land, the coastal regions may see some but not a great deal.

It will also be windy, again nothing that we haven’t seen 7 million times before. And then a media release about where to get sandbags. Completely overdone, and on purpose. This is the same people who 10 years ago said we had better get used to a drying climate.

I think you will all agree that this gelati is getting tiring from them, I have had people messaging all day ready to evacuate houses F.F.S!!

Tomorrow morning at 5 am, the European model has record Precipitable Water forecast over the West coast of SA. There is no disputing this, this airmass will be beyond belief.

However it will lack cooler air in the mid levels, so this will cap rainfall, as will the fact that’s it 5 am and not 5 pm.


Here is the EC forecast rainfall for the next 72 hours, if this is bad enough to issue press releases about where to get sandbags then I’m Lebron James.

The heaviest falls are way out west, as it moves this way it will weaken, so it looks like Victoria can only expect 10 mm or so in the Western parts of the state, and the SE of SA looks similar.

Aside from all this, there isn’t much more to report tonight other than the moisture is going to continue to build and move South after every event.

Jan 20 - 21: And indeed we see a cut off develop over the Victorian and Tasmania regions, this one wont be a big event at this stage but is a great sign that the following week near Australia Day could see a big event.

The EC 10 day rainfall forecast is getting wetter, I think it senses that things are about to move in the coming weeks, all of this moisture that is biblical in nature will eventually result in a huge event, most likely in NSW as well, once that ridge is displaced I expect rainfall in the hundreds of mms if it sets up as I think it will.

So in summary, a good event in SA, nothing near the hype though.
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In case anyone finds these interesting or helpful Confused


Weekly Wrap Up, April 29th.

Posted on AnthonyPosted in Premium

Todays Update : Questions are answered, and are then replaced by even more questions.

Good evening everyone, hope you are all well, I am sure you are all busy sowing and getting into it. So hopefully you have time to see this update, as I will look at the pros and cons for 2017, and what that will mean for 2018.

As we all know, the El Nino is off the table, but this does not mean we will see warming in the months ahead, it just means that we wont see enough warming to tip the scales to form an El Nino.

So the behaviour over the next 3 months will determine more than just the weather, it will determine what happens in Spring, in summer, and in 2018.

The next 3 months is crucial, the climate at the moment is balancing on a knife edge, there is a lot of scenarios that could unfold.

What we do know, is that models are a fair way behind on this, but will come around to my forecast. CFSv2 and the BOM are the first two models who now agree with my theory and are now coming on.

 

Here above we see the latest run of the CFSv2 for the SST anomalies until January. If you look at this, you will notice that it now see quite cooler water especially in the Nino 1 and 2 region.

However, it is being very simplistic with this forecast, because all this model is doing is training the subsurface water through up to the surface.

If you look at the subsurface, you can see there is cold water in the subsurface getting ready to surface, and the model now thinks this will surface and spread Westwards on the surface.

The timing of this will be crucial, if it comes up to quick it may use to much of this cold water too early. And as it comes up, the warm water you can see on the left of the graph will then start moving towards South America, and thats why the model starts having warm water near South America in the summer.

So how do we know how fast all this happens? We don’t, and neither does the model, its guessing, it will be determined by the Easterly winds. And as we know, the Easterly winds are still going strong.

So lets look at this by breaking this down.

This SST forecast is for May, and you will notice that at the very time the models expected Westerlies and lots of warming, it now has cooling. So the thing that will be different straight away, is that the Easterlies will not be easing.

And we see the same sort of profile until October, so if we see the Easterlies dominate until then, chances are we see lower pressure continue to dominate around Australia as well.

And this will also kill off the IOD from going positive, because the warmer water will continue to push into the Indian due to these Easterlies.

So this cooler water looks like it will surface in the next few weeks, the million dollar question is, does it make the Easterlies strengthen near South America?

If they do, it is still not out of the realms that we see a weak La Nina, this possibility has to be explored. And this is where 2018 comes into play.

I am starting to get a little worried that this may all happen too fast or too slow, and put us out of sequence for a La Nina in 2018.

If this can happen quickly, we could have a scenario that uses up all of this cool and warm water by years end, and then allows another bigger cold pool to trail in for a 2018 La Nina.

If it happens really slowly, we may not see this warm water come up until mid next year, or autumn at the earliest, and mean we will have to wait until 2019 for a big La Nina

At this point in time, its impossible to know how 2018 will play out, as it will heavily rely on how this coming year unfolds. It is still looking wetter due to everything we have looked at in this post, simply because low pressure continues to develop.

As you can see above, in July it starts to see surface pressure higher in Western Australia, and higher surface pressure out East, so that it is the end of the Positive IOD before it started.

But things get really interesting in September, huge lower then normal pressure over the country, so this will mean we could see average weather in September rather than the dry conditions that I had expected.

it even sees much lower pressure at 500 mb, so our Spring could be quite different if the CFSv2 is right. Over the coming weeks, we will see what the other models come in with, I suspect they will be coming around to a similar scenario.

How our rainfall will be impacted will be the real question, but the more I am seeing, the more I am thinking that instead of a Decile 3 to 4 year, which is what I have had forecasted since January, its looking like we will see a Decile 4 to 5 year from here on.

But the important thing to know is, and I know I keep saying it, the next 3 months rules all. The fact is, no matter how good a forecaster you are, its impossible to know just how much cool water comes up, and how this alters the global patterns.

In the coming weeks I cannot wait to see what the other models do, and how embarrassing it will be for the Jamstec, because I am certain it will turn its forecast much lower.

I showed this in the Long Range post, the IOD spread for September shows the BOM is bang on neutral, so expect lower pressure to develop, so I think once WA breaks with rain it may start to rain a lot.

Clearly EC is on the Thymosin Beta 4, along with the Jamstec, maybe James Hird is running these two models (sorry Bryan, had to square up!)

With respect to ENSO, models have started to respond, within a month I think September will look a lot different to this forecast.

If we look at the current satellite photo, the thing to watch is the low pressure near Indonesia, if the Easterlies continue, this low pressure should continue to feed in moisture into Northern Australia.

And I think this is going to lead into a wetter period for QLD and NSW, because this moisture should do a U-Turn as indicated and continually try to feed into Eastern Australia. Once the cold air starts to get more regular, so will rain for Eastern Australia.

So if we continue to see Easterlies, then this current pattern will continue to evolve, and warm the Indian Ocean.

Current SSTs shows the higher pressure that is developing off the South American coast, and this is causing the lower pressure over Northern Australia.

All that is left now is how much the Indian can warm as a response, and whether that very warm patch SW of Perth can move close to the coast of WA. The waters around the East are still warm, so lower pressure wont be too far away over the coming weeks.

So as for 2018, there is still so much of 2017 to play out that is very hard to make a call, I want to see warming before the year is out in the Pacific, and then I will be much more comfortable that the big La Nina is going to be on.

My forecast for the next 9 months and then next year stands at this point, I really don’t believe I can change it with any certainty until July. The next two to three months will determine the next 18 months, thats how crucial this next period is.

As always though, as things evolve you guys will be the first to know, for the time being no change to the forecast.

Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
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Well !!    Thats a blast  !!!  
Beautiful days here , but cold at night.
Snow on The Tops .


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 May 2017 at 7:20pm

AV Weather Takes Off - The Land


Jessie Davies

After providing free weather advice on weather forums and via Facebook since 2001, strawberry farmer Anthony Violi, Coldstream, Victoria, launched AV Weather in 2016. He now has more than 1600 paying subscribers.

After providing free weather advice on weather forums and via Facebook since 2001, strawberry farmer Anthony Violi, Coldstream, Victoria, launched AV Weather in 2016. He now has more than 1600 paying subscribers.

IT’S raining cats and dogs at Coldstream, Victoria, but not in the way you’d expect.

Since making weather forecasting his full time gig, strawberry farmer Anthony Violi has been inundated with new customers seeking location-specific climate information. 

“My client base has doubled since Christmas,” said Mr Violi, owner of AV Weather.

“I now have 1600 subscribers around the country.”

He’s recently hired a casual so he can keep up with the one-on-one messaging and call back service he offers.

Mr Violi began selling subscriptions to his weather forecasts last March after attracting a large group of followers to his weekly weather blog. 

“I’ve since created a level of service which no one else provides.” 

He offers daily updates; four week forecasts and a five month seasonal outlook.

He also pens weekly blog posts focusing on the next fortnight’s weather.

His services range from $20 a month to $45/month.

He said his forecasts are usually closer to the Bureau of Meteorology’s than Elders Weather.

Last year, he said, rival forecasters initially predicted extremely low winter rainfall for NSW, Victoria and South Australia. He forecast the opposite.

“People were asking me if there was any point planting. I said it would definitely be a wet season. All my customers then had their biggest harvest ever.”

In general, long-range forecasting services are falling short, he said. 

“Right now, climate models are showing an El Nino for the end of the year. I’m saying the El Nino won’t happen – instead it will be a ‘warm-neutral’.”

A warm-neutral is where temperatures in the Pacific Ocean don’t reach the threshold required to be called El Nino.

Most of his clients are clustered in Central West NSW, with the remainder spread throughout the agricultural districts of South Australia, Victoria and Queensland.

Mr Violi is a self-taught forecaster.

Until recently he farmed strawberries with his brother and father in the Yarra Valley of Victoria. 

“When the internet took off in the late 1990s there was so much information online which I had never been able to read in a book, I learnt so much. From there I was able to put together what I was seeing and how to communicate it.”

Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
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