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Long Range Weather Forecast

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Mar 2016 at 5:23pm

Good afternoon everyone, hopefully everyone has received their weekly updates. If i have sent you the wrong one please let me know, and i have somehow managed to forget you also please let me know.

Fantastic rainfall through South Australia continues. There he been some enormous falls through most of it, if you have missed out it has simply been because you have been unlucky. Generally though SA has seen amazing rainfall. So we have gone from a theory i had in the middle of February to it actually happening.

So what happens next? Well subscribers will get the very best and latest developments in the Seasonal outlooks that will be mailed out around the 20th of March. So today I'm going to cover the El Nino situation and what it means for the coming months.

So as we know i have been big on El nino breaking down, and the moisture beginning to return to Australia as the Easterly trades pick up again as the coming La Nina gets ready to begin.

Sea Surface temperatures in pic 1 have to seen to be believed, they show that we are primed for a massive increase in rainfall during winter and Spring. In fact, i have never seen the Indian Ocean be in this position set for the coming Indian monsoon and Austral winter.

In 2010, the negative IOD produced in part what see in pic 2, widespread falls at record levels through much of Southern and Eastern Australia, owing to the huge amount of higher then normal moisture streaming in from the Indian. And if we compare the 2010 sea surface temp anomalies in pic 3, we will see that there was no where near the warmth we are currently seeing building up in the Indian.

So those who saw my seasonal outlook and wondered why June was at decile 10, this is why. Also, the warm water currently in the Pacific and heading West will end up in the Indian as it passes across the top end and into the Indonesian Throughflow current. However given the record heat already there its really won't make much difference.

So in pic 4, the CFS model now see this monstrous rain that is coming for the winter. Between the La Nina and the negative IOD i think we will see at the very least the same record rainfall we saw in 2010 across most of the country, and if this stays this warm then we may even see even more rain than 2010 which i know is hard to believe.

All in all we are about to be unleashed upon by the weather as it responds the El Nino we have just had in devastating fashion. At the moment i think we will see widespread flooding through the winter and Spring, and i will be keeping an eye on this to see if it plays out this way. It would take a big shift from here not to happen.

So that's how i see it, which is good news for farmers sick of the drought, as i said i will cover it in detail in the outlooks i send. Later this evening i will post about current events.

A.V.Weather Should see 20mm over the next 10 days for most to the state
Joe Boisen Is anything indicating decent rain (meaning 25-50mm)for central vic in near future?

A.V.Weather Yes I think a really big cold shot is coming within a fortnight. This is likely to be a seasonal shift and a a big one. Snows down to very low levels will be possible should the system eventuate.


Edited by Gay3 - 14 Mar 2016 at 7:15am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Fiddlesticks Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 13 Mar 2016 at 5:53pm
Will be a wet week in Sydney this week, rain everyday from Tuesday...a wet slipper looms..
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Mar 2016 at 3:59pm
Some encouraging validation posts:

 Shannon Beveridge Can I just say, I've done numerous tv docos on Melbourne and Australian weather, I have travelled to America to chase tornadoes, far north Australia for cyclones and across lots of southern and eastern Australia for storms but you sir, your posts are incredible. Very accurate and detailed. Please keep up the awesome work as I follow every post!!! Thank you!


A.V.Weather That's very kind of you Shannon thanks. The aim is to not only show people what coming before anyone even thinks about it, when it does happen you can go back 3 weeks and verify what I said would occur did occur. Then people know I'm not crazy and have a handle on what's going on. Plus I love it of course lol.


Kevin Game Bega currently receiving the rain you forecast 3 weeks ago. My 80ha of wheat and ryegrass I put in on your say so is jumping out the ground. Awesome keep up the good work.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Mar 2016 at 7:26pm

Good evening all, things are moving now and all of a sudden the front on Friday for Victoria looks ominously strong. So looking at current moisture content with the PW chart in pic 1, not much has changed. Plenty of moisture still lingering and i keep saying if it lingers long enough then it finally lines up when cold air moves up.

In pic 2 i want to look at water vapour, except this time i am using the wide view. What going to happen here is the front is moving up from Antarctica, and notice how much water vapour it has available, and its going to interact with all the moisture feeding down form the Indian ocean.

So WA in the South will see decent falls initially, and then the front will rocket East to be in Victoria Thursday night. So in pic 3 you can see how the moisture hooks up with the fronting is forced East. This forcing is likely to result in heavy rain and thunderstorms for Victoria and Southern NSW. Falls of up to 50mm are possible so this system is now going to be the best front we have had this year.

So after that on the weekend what happens next is fairly predictable and a sign that things have shifted. Pic 4 shows the moisture forced up into QLD, and simply does a U turn and heads South to hook up with the next system. So yet again, inland SA sees even more rain next week.

And as we get to Thursday before Easter, things start to line up. Those who receive the emails know that Easter was the target for the "big" one, the cut off low to bring a massive widespread event before the next fine spell. Well its trying its best to happen, pic 5 shows the Precipitable Water increasing again and an upper trough moving in through SA.

Now in pic 6, the pressure pattern shows that its primed, whether or not it plays out like this remains to be seen but lets run through it. A big blocking low in the Tasman, moisture feeding in from WA through SA into Victoria, and cold air moving up from the SW to meet it.

A long way out yes, but models are starting to see the cold air interaction and are starting to look for the big one. If it isn't this one, we continue to see unsettled stormy weather through the interior until it does set up.

And just to finish off with, pic 7 shows the current warmer than normal water to our North and NW are off the charts. Its impossible to not imagine a straifing of biblical proportions in the coming weeks and months. There will be more about that in the next outlook, which will be mailed out on the weekend.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote acacia alba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 15 Mar 2016 at 11:16pm
Well, we have had our break thru weather.
After weeks of horrible hot, and humid , weather we copped a hammering yesterday about 4.30.  Then we lost power for 4 hours. 
Massive storms,  rain,  wind,  floods under the doors,  and gutters couldnt cope so kitchen flooded.
No one local forecast that !!

animals before people.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 Mar 2016 at 7:30pm
Whoo-hoo Big smile we might finally get more than a couple of mls out of this, can but hope anyway as it's looking more promising than for several months (Ballarat area).

Good evening all, well the dynamic situation has now charged full steam ahead and is on our doorstep. Severe thunderstorms are still exploding in Eastern SA, and will move into Vic later this evening.

Current Adelaide radar shows huge thunderstorms going off with the pre frontal trough, the front still well SW as indicated. So this is just only beginning, it looks like the North of Vic and the East of SA will get much more than models were thinking. And as you can imagine with dew points around 16 for the last 2 weeks across 3 states, it is absolutely primed.

Current enhanced infrared satellite shows the size of the storm band currently moving into the SE of SA, this is very heavy rain so it won't take long to rack up 20 - 30mm with the storms. It looks like the peak will be in central victoria tomorrow morning, by then the front will have caught up to the moisture so it will only enhance the rainfall.

Getting reports of good falls through SA this evening with 30mm in Kimba, and I'm sure by the time this is done there should be many more that will bring joy to many people. Stay safe and will give everyone an update early am, things should be wild in Melbourne by then!


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Apr 2016 at 10:06am
Excerpts from http://avweather.net

Now on to something quite extreme, Scripps released there April Forecast for the ENSO, which means El Nino Southern Oscillation.

To make it simpler, the forecast of whether it is El Nino or La Nina. And what I saw was frightening.

Here we have the diagrams of each month for the pacific, and already by June July August the colder water has appeared.

The last diagram for March April May Next year is off its head completely, and hard to believe.

By August September October, Scripps is forecasting the Nino 3.4 region to be -2.02 degrees below normal.

That alone puts us into almost record territory, and barely into the early Spring, which is mind blowing, that a shift could occur that severely.

So one one wonders what we will see if Scripps is anywhere near right and we see -3.45 In December January February!

This is unheard of. The implications globally for something of this magnitude should not be understated.

If this were to come off we would see global temperatures plunge so hard that every trough around the globe becomes super charged.

Northern Hemisphere growing season will be shortened by a lot. Australia will be decimated with floods of biblical proportions.

                                                              -----------------------

And now the rainfall is extreme. And the peak Nino value will be -1.50 according to Jamstec.

So Scripps has -3.45, which is likely an exaggeration, but what if it isn’t?

That is what everyone needs to ask themselves, how strong and how severe will this climate response be?

If Scripps is anywhere near ball park then we have a problem.

Thats my job, I will forecast it as we get closer.

So the Outlook is for wetter conditions coming on, no doubt about it. And it is going to be biased to the wet side.

This dry is on its last legs, get ready for the switch because potentially it is going to be savage.

                                                                     -----------------------------

To summarize, prepare now for wetter conditions, we are likely to see a wet period coming up, then a break through the winter, then the stage is set for a dramatic increase through the Spring.

If the dry winter does eventuate, we could see one of our wettest Springs on record. I will refine all this as we get closer, of course.

So thats where that all sits, I will obviously update you all the time as things unfold.



Edited by Gay3 - 16 Apr 2016 at 10:07am
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Beliskner Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 16 Apr 2016 at 2:29pm
We have a wetter and cooler summer every few years, nothing to see here.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 20 Apr 2016 at 9:19pm
I urge anyone with an interest in the climate for the next 6mths to take a peek at Anthonys' extensive site & predictions within, while it's free for 3 days

A.V.Weather
18 mins ·

Good evening all, I have made some changes to the products and services page. As some of you have only recently joined I am going to add a free trial, where you can view the site for 3 days and decide if you like what you see.

After 3 days you will have to register a package to continue to view the members only information. You can register here, at the products and services page.

http://www.avweather.net/products-and-services/
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 May 2016 at 8:14pm
Evening Update May 2nd 2016

Tomorrows front can also be seen there and that will skirt the SA and Victorian coast tomorrow, totals below 5 mm can be expected.

Then we move onto the real action, the follow up system everyone is waiting for.

Its looking like it will be on. I haven’t seen any change in positioning so far, every run, models just play around with timing and rainfall but not the set up.

The EC is really bullish, here is the set up it sees for Friday into Saturday.

Two things to note here, first off is that the EC has always had the cold air moving up South of WA, and I mentioned in last nights update that it has to come up through here for the hook up to have any chance of being a rain delivering one.

Second, this is deep, cold air so expect this to be ferocious yet again. Somehow, most people didn’t see what would occur on Saturday, I posted on FB at mid afternoon that significant and severe weather was on the cards.

I don’t think this set up will be a lot different at this early stage. Here is what the moisture looks like:

ecmwf_pwat_slp_australia_19



Its almost a a carbon copy of the last two runs that I have posted.  So there isn’t too much in the way of this happening.

The good news is the cold air for is just back far enough that it will do this by Saturday.

ecmwf_pwat_slp_australia_23

So now we see moisture finally get into SA, but again will depend on the cold air hanging back and coming up near WA. By Sunday night it has kicked on into NSW.

This moisture looks much deeper to me. I like this set up a lot. QLD and NSW would see substantial falls if this comes off like this.

So if we look at what that looks like on the pressure map, it is telling.

ecmwf_slp_precip_australia_25 (1)

And why is it telling? Because the pressure has shifted, this system intensifies as it enters NSW, rather than be eroded by dry air.

This has developed into a big system, so lets hope that the EC is on the money here.

As for rainfall, the EC will put a smile on a lot of faces.

ecmwf_tprecip_australia_41 (11)

So its going for good rain in South Australia, finally. It was only a matter of when enough cold air came up at the right time, and this could be it.

Victoria, Tasmania, NSW and QLD all see a months worth of rain, on top of what we have already seen.

After this system a dry spell could be on the cards, the EC brings a lot of dry air behind it and parks it over the country.

But we will see what happens with this.

And if we look to why this is, well there is nothing more stark than the pressure anomaly maps. Here is the map for Friday.

gfs_mslp_sig_globe_20 (1)


I suppose you guys probably get sick of me showing this! But its the very reason that things have flipped.

Higher pressure now centres in the Pacific, and lower pressure over Australia. And that means there will a big burst of Easterly trade winds by the weekend.

We will check on Friday and see if I am right, and this will inject even more moisture into the country, feeding into the system moving across the country.

So the follow up is definitely on, all that is left is to see who and where sees the most rain, and what sort of set up we are likely to see.



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 14 May 2016 at 8:42pm

Daily Update, May 14th.

Todays Update : GFS joins the party, rain imminent.

Good afternoon all, an early update today as I will be busy this evening.

Forecast are also updated early as well. Things are quickly transitioning now, it was only 24 hours ago that we were looking the moisture in the Indian Ocean, and the uopper low just off the coast, and what it may decide to do.

Models weakened the low out to nothing, and I mentioned we would revisit it to see what would happen.

Well, it did something far different as I expected.

Here is the water vapour.

auswide_wv_latest (54)

So the upper low is still off the coast of NW WA, and moisture is now feeding into WA and SA.

Also, the other two regions in the Indian have both commenced sending moisture SE, so its not going to take long for models to start seeing that troughs are going to start developing nearby.

And if we look at the actual satellite, a low pressure trough is developing through WA.

auswide_truevis_latest

And you will notice that the region that this infeed is coming from is further North than it has been for a year.

So this means the move is underway, and widespread rain is now imminent in the coming weeks.

All of a sudden, the GFS sees it and jumps on the upper trough train that CMC and EC have been on for a couple of days.

gfs_z500a_ausnz_26

For next Friday, it puts the upper trough right where the others see it, over WA.

And then, its gone even further than the other models, and really brings in low pressure through the mid levels by day 10.

gfs_z500a_ausnz_41

Not only does it have an upper low both sides of the country, including the really big one out in the Tasman, it brings in a domination of upper troughs, including a severe upper low over Victoria.

So this has done a full circle, and agrees we are about to see a huge nationwide rain event. So now we just have to see it unfold, and the only question is do we see it spread from the West, or develop in QLD, or do both.

I think it may well do both, there is simply too much low pressure around for there not to be. Given this upper scenario also involves a surface trough we could see some flooding rains in the second week from now.

We know the surface trough will be around, add the upper trough to the equation as this suggests, and then it becomes like a T-Rex on steroids.

So the GFS has joined the party, just hasn’t put together rainfall totals yet.

We are still looking at the 10 – 14 day timeframe. But its coming, and the weekly forecasts that I updated this morning reflect this.

So enjoy the dry spell, I have a feeling it wont be lasting very long.

Tomorrow morning I will be working on the Seasonal outlooks, so there wont be a weather update, unless I see something major happening.

So that is it for this update, have a great night and see you back here tomorrow.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 May 2016 at 9:33pm

Tonights Update : A tectonic shift is underway.

Good evening all, hope you all had a wonderful day. My ears are still ringing. Took his kids to the Zoo!!)

But I learnt a lot today, for example I learnt how the Lord Howe Island stick insect was thought to be extinct.

A ship ran aground off the coast of the island in 1918, and rats ran amok on the island and ate them all.

As luck would have it, some of them made it 23 km away to Balls Pyramid, and survived.

From there, they have been bought to the Zoo and now breed at roughly 1000 per female, per year. Amazing.

So, just like in weather, you learn something new everyday. Today I also learnt that a massive shift is not only underway, but on our doorstep.

Im not sure i have ever seen the charts look so bullish for a pounding of biblical proportions, which is scary because I have seen every chart for the last 30 years.

More on this later. First, you guessed it, water vapour.

auswide_wv_latest (58)

Not only is moisture feeding in, another mid level trough is forming over Northern SA. Get used to this, it is going to be happening a lot.

Notice also the surface trough off the QLD coast, it has decided it want sot move in from the East as well.

And also some showers over the NT, someone should email Weatherzone and tell them! ( in case you missed it, their news feed said in April 10 no more rain until October! )

On to the Sat photo.

auswide_irenh1_latest (13)

Nice trough, and it will be dropping rain soon, our radar coverage is so pathetic i cant be sure, but to me this looks enough to produce showers.

And into NSW as well, so when I update the forecasts tonight it will say the chance of showers right into the NW slopes.

Tonight will tell, overnight is where these things make a move. I haven’t checked but I imagine the BOM have no rain and sunny, as ACCESS has not seen it as of now when I just checked it.

So we will see by the morning what happens here. Tonight we will look at the EC. As I have already mentioned it is the worlds best model, the trick is to know when it sees something big.

Today is that day, and now we will see if it comes off.  Here is the upper charts at 500 mb for Sunday, it shows it well.

ecmwf_z500a_ausnz_21

As I mentioned last night, all Im looking for is if this Long Wave can advance enough to move through SA, and into Vic and NSW.

So looking above, this is outrageous, and this sort of scenario will likely spawn the biggest thunderstorms the Pilbara would have seen in years.

And notice behind the trough line I have marked, the ridiculously low pressures down to Antarctica. This is setting up for a huge run of troughs to pound Southern Australia.

At the same time, two troughs will set up in North, one on each coast, simply because the upper ridges have no support from the Sea Surface temps.

So by mid next week, I fully expect to see a big move happening. The EC has this pattern occurring.

ecmwf_slp_precip_australia_40

The trough over NSW was the first wave that likely runs into the ridge and doesn’t deliver much. The second trough over Vic is much the same.

The 3 rd trough, if it positions itself there, will deliver so much rain through the interior that you wont believe it.

This is poised to deliver a huge event, as for the first time in nearly a year we see low pressure, infeed from the indian, and no ridge.

Just to confirm, here is the charts at 500 mb.

ecmwf_z500a_ausnz_40

The ridge is almost non existent, and lower pressure will dominate. There is nothing to stop this huge event coming in.

It is simply now a matter of when, and where, and this is the very reason I have decile 10s for most of the country for June.

Add to this, the moisture content, we haven’t really looked at precipitable Water for the last couple of weeks.

But check this out.

ecmwf_pwat_slp_australia_41 (3)

You can see whats happening here, we have the perfect storm. Surface low, upper trough, and high moisture content.

And not only that, values of 50 mm are about to be dragged into the interior by the west coast trough.

If this lines up just like this, this puts 200 – 300 mm of rain through WA, this is a record breaking system should it happen

This is the tectonic shift that the climate is about to deliver to us, all we need to know is where and when.

So that where we are at, things are certainly about to get hectic. At this stage, I think 20 mm makes into the Eyre Peninsula mid next week.

Also, the trough is a bit weaker in the East over the Pacific, so a trough will develop over inland QLD and NSW too, so we may see some activity develop there in 7 days or so.

EC at this point doesn’t deliver to much rain with this set up, but I think it certainly is going too.

Thanks for all the wonderful comments and emails today, I will respond to them all shortly.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Go Flash Go Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 17 May 2016 at 10:05pm
Shocked really ? l can't add up what this adds up to (at this time of night) but pictures like that must add up to something l guess ... keep 'em rolling when you can Gay (thanks for) Smile
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 23 May 2016 at 8:00pm
Don't worry Flash, me either but I'm trying to learn & it's easy to pick out the meaningful stuff in between the graphs Wink
Going to be way above average within the next 2 - 3 weeks is the gist of this one which makes me wonder about Eagle Farm whenever they start using it Confused

Evening Update, May 23rd.

Posted on AnthonyPosted in Premium

Tonights Update : Could it be? Or is it a false dawn?

Good evening all, not much to talk about tonight, models are all holding firm with absolutely no changes.

So I decided to go on a hunt. An Easter Egg hunt? A fox hunt perhaps? Nope. I go hunting for the big one!

More about that shortly, first lets look at the water vapour and see how our system looks.

auswide_wv_latest

The trough that was left over in the centre of Australia will link up with the front and move into NSW.

Also, the upper ridge over the Indian Ocean is being eroded, you can tell it has lost its colour as moisture starts to erode it in the lower levels.

And the driest air is exiting out through QLD, and this is now starting to push this upper trough off shore.

This sequence of events makes me think that things are setting up quickly.

So, when looking at the 500 mb charts it makes for very interesting reading.

Here is the EC for Friday.

ecmwf_z500a_ausnz_19

EC brings in a nice strong upper low into the Lower SE of SA, and I feel if there is an upgrade to be had, it is here.

Importantly it goes through the Riverland and Mallee districts, so this could be a little sting in the tail if it goes through there.

Which brings onto the hunt, had a very good look today, and have come to the conclusion we are now within 14 days of a huge event unfolding.

Unless something changes drastically, I’m sold on what is unfolding here.

First, here is EC in 10 days time.

ecmwf_slp_precip_australia_41

I know we covered this a bit last night, but this has enormous potential.

This ties in with what I showed this morning, the Easterly trades are about 10 days away from developing low pressure on our doorstep.

So it seems logical that a surface trough develops here on the QLD and NSW coast.

GFS actually has this in this mornings run but bigger, so my instincts could be right here.

Now look at the charts at 500 mb level.

ecmwf_z500a_ausnz_40

 

Is that not amazing, it has eroded all of the high pressure in the Pacific and developed a huge upper low over QLD.

Add the surface trough with tons of moisture and all of a sudden things looks dynamic.

I had a look at GFS, and what do you know.

gfs_z500a_ausnz_41

It does the same thing, ridge to the South, trough over QLD.

So now the models have put together all the pieces as I have explained in the last two days that were happening.

Should this come off, it will be a truly mammoth event. I would prefer it to be further North but beggars cant be choosers with the weather.

And this is why it is important to have someone who can show you these things weeks before they unfold.

If you look at the weekly forecasts, in week 3 I had this similar scenario coming on.

I see these things and then just work out the timing of them.

So I think we are now in the set up stage of this, whilst the Southern states enjoy rain a much bigger event is establishing itself in the back ground.

To simplify it, QLD is at record temperatures at the moment, and as soon as low pressure enters this region the amount of extra energy that will be available to use is going to be immeasurable.

This has huge implications for massive rainfall and why I have been saying a biblical event is unfolding.

The only part of the equation that is unknown is the moisture, how much of an infeed will get into QLD to feed this upper trough?

Thats where you need to get a bit closer time wise, because all these fronts are shooting up cold dry air into the interior.

Just as an aside, here are the global temps for this month.

ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom

You can see we have much warmer than normal temps focussed mostly in QLD. So here is what I like to do, and this will amaze some of you but this is what i have been doing every day for ther last 15 years.

I go hunting. And I always have comparable analogs I like to find, and then see how they marry up. So watch this.

Here is 2007.

ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_052007

Pretty similar yes? Almost a carbon copy I would say, we came out of the El Nino and in May 2007 the La Nina was building.

What is the relevance for now I hear you say? Well, here is what happened in June of 2007.

June 2007 rainfall

As you can see, big rains developed through Northern Australia. Now, if you look back at the temperature in the top corner of that 2007 chart, its 0.28 C above normal.

May 2016, we are at 0.435 C above normal. We have an enormous amount of extra heat available, and that means we have much more extra moisture floating around the globe in the tropics.

So when the big one comes, we cash in, and given this, I expect it to be double what you see here and more widespread.

This is just a little sample of the lengths I go to, to ensure the whole picture is seen and utilised.

I think I may have mentioned when I started that you will be amazed with what you see here, whilst others are busy posting photos of floods on FB Im working on giving you the why, the how, the where and the when.

Even to this day I still go back and try and find correlations in the 1950s, you can never stop learning in this caper.

The only issue is the data pre 1979 is skewed due to the bullgelati global warming agenda, however there some data points that cant be adjusted and that is a good thing.

And I will get it wrong at times, make no mistake about it, thankfully these mistakes will be small.

And because I work so closely with you guys, I can tell you quickly if something isn’t working.

At this point in time, everything is going perfectly for June for a huge month.

So to summarise, no changes to this week, I am happy how it looks, and we could possibly get a slight upgrade for Friday.

So that is another comprehensive post tonight detailing all the things I am looking at, any questions, please put them in the comments and I will answer them there.

I will have another update in the morning, have a great night, and see you then.

 




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Thumbs Up am learning not to worry too much Gay (started working on it when l was Twenty expect to "get it" when l'm about 150)
 
Anyway it's good to plan a bit he/she seems to be doing wet form for the weather Wink 
 
2-3 weeks to see if that cataclysmic wet eventuates ....
 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 30 May 2016 at 7:19pm
He's nothing if not honest LOL (What on Earth does this expression really mean? Confused)

Tonights Update : Models are all over the place, time to use instinct.

Good evening all, well I thought we had started to settle down on a scenario but clearly models see things differently.

Tonight they all over the shop, focussing on different systems and basically all off on individual tangents.

So the best thing to do is throw them all out the window, and start forecasting what I can see.

The very curious thing is though, the only model to have any consistency at all is the Canadian.

The problem is, it is forecasting a huge event. So, its really hard to know which way this will go, but it is not budging.

Anyway, lets look at what we know. Here is the latest satellite.

aus_irenh1_latest (1)

Loving the look of this mid level trough here that has developed over Central Australia, it is receiving multiple in feeds of moisture.

And finally, it looks like Central QLD and the Emerald region will some good rains over the course of the next 5 days.

This trough will train over the region slowly and continue to develop, as the much colder air form the South feeds into this system slowly.

Here is a look at the latest water vapour.

auswide_wv_latest (2)

I don’t think models are up to speed with this yet, and I think we will see rain from this into QLD, and possibly even Northern NSW over the next few days.

As for the bigger system late week and into the weekend, only the Canadian hasn’t budged.

cmc_precip_mslp_aus_19

Despite the fact it gets active out East, it holds it line and slides down the coast into Victoria. It has not budged from this, the other two are all over the shop.

So given the consistency, we cannot dismiss this from happening. And when you will see the rainfall, you will see why its hard to believe.

Here is the vorticity that CMC has.

cmc_z500_uv_vort_aus_21

CMC really brings the heat as far as instability goes, it ramps things right up tonight.

Funnily enough GFS and EC are very similar with vorticity but do not translate it into the higher rainfall that CMC does.

Here is the Canadian rainfall forecast.

cmc_total_precip_aus_41 (2)

On the surface, you can look at this and think, yep, over doing it. And i agree it is likely to be overdoing it.

But given the vorticity and 500mb charts its not all that over the top, and we know this model loves cold air scenarios.

So its definitely been the most consistent this system, so for the moment I am inclined to go with this model.

That’s a sure fire way of getting burnt, as the CFS model has done to me before as well!

But it looks logical, it sees the cold air early, and maximises rainfall. I think its over doing it, so I would halve these totals.

I think widespread 30 mm through NSW, rather than the 50 – 100 mm falls it has here.

Either way, this will be a good producer for NSW, with good follow to come for South Australia, Victoria, and WA.

Western Australia should benefit from the AAO being negative, as fronts barrage the SW corner of the state.

This should continue in the coming weeks for there, before the pattern shifts and the focus becomes Eastern Australia.

So thats about it for now, things are wildly all over the place and as clear as mud. NSW however still looking good for good rain.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 31 May 2016 at 8:17pm
Another update in case it helps anyone on the punting front Smile

Tonight Update : So much is happening, even the models are confused!

Good evening all, well not much has changed since last night, models are all over the shop.

The last few runs they have flirted with the idea that the event may not even happen, but they are coming to their senses now and realizing a lot of cold air is moving in, and that things are about to get really active.

And in some other good news, its starting to rain over the Central Highlands of QLD, and they should see light rain for another 36 hours, and more on the weekend.

So, lets look at what we have going on, because there is a lot, water vapour as always takes pole position.

auswide_wv_latest (3)

Lower pressure is starting to take over, and you can see the dry air has almost completely been eroded.

The blob of tropical convection is getting closer to the NW coast, and by next week I think it will start to in feed into the next frontal system, enhancing rainfall.

Also, lots of cold air to the SW of WA that is laden with moisture, so that will also enhance rainfall as it moves up.

An of course the inland trough is kicking along nicely now.

Here is the satellite photo.

auswide_irenh1_latest (3)

Its fair to say that we have turned full circle from barely 5 weeks ago.

We now have Low pressure troughs at all levels developing at will.

South of Adelaide, we have a stationary upper low, and that extends a trough up into Northern SA.

We have the mid level trough over Inland QLD, we have the infeed from the Indian, and we have another upper trough moving into Perth.

On top of all that, we have a surface trough just wedged into the Southern NSW coast.

So there is so much going on here its really is no wonder that models cannot settle on what will happen here.

Luckily, I know what will happen, its going to be on like Donkey Kong, thats what!

We are going to see non stop frontal activity, lots of cold air and troughs through the inland deliver lots of rain.

Thats the simple conclusion. How that happens is the mystery, but thats what the end result is.

The one thing that is lacking somewhat is moisture however, the active cold air means drier air.

In any case, here is what the EC brings to the table tonight.

And for the record, all of the models bring in the upper trough into NSW and end up something like this.

ecmwf_z500a_ausnz_16

The upper low is back right where it had originally put it, so this looks like a good thing NSW, with the rain wrapping in over the top.

Its what happens after this point that is all over the place, but given the size of the upper trough that out past WA, its fairly obvious that another big system will be closely following this one.

EC quickly brings in another upper low, this time through Adelaide, and moves it NE as well.

ecmwf_z500a_ausnz_24

And then this is where it gets interesting, because we may see a blocking set up happen here, and this upper low will have nowhere to go.

And alarm bells go off straight away, as most flood events happen due to this very scenario.

So the second system has a lot of potential here, I think we are in for avery wet period for NSW and Southern QLD.

And as you can see, yet another upper trough moves up towards WA, standing up nice and tall as well.

So if we don’t see a blocking set up, this will move in and see yet another system. So we are looking at 2 big systems, and maybe 3, in the next 10 days.

So here are the the rainfalls, vastly different, we will go with EC first.

ecmwf_tprecip_australia_41 (3)

EC has the focus out East, but still has the good falls in Central and Eastern NSW.

It also starts bringing in the Indian Ocean infeed for the next system, I will keep an eye on this as it will affect SA and Victoria late in the period.

Here is the GFS.

gfs_tprecip_aus2_41

On the surface you would think they look fairly similar, and they sort of are.

Believe me, the synoptics are miles apart!! But nonetheless, an in feed late into a big system is also on the cards here.

And then the Canadian.

cmc_total_precip_aus_40

So they are all similar, they just arrive at the conclusion differently, and they all favour a move from the Indian late in the period, around mid next week,

So I think that may be the focus as it is likely to be a widespread event. This upcoming event to me looks like it will be confined to NSW and QLD.

Interestingly, EC keeps Southern Vic dry until late in the period. I agree as we will be trapped in the downslide of the both Lows as they move into NSW.

SA also will be largely dry at this point until mid next week, the secondary system on Sunday into Monday might produce 5 – 10 mm however I will need to see where the secondary upper trough enters the state late in the weekend.

So its all happening, things are evolving so quickly now as the climate has now completely shifted around our part of the world.

Just got word, by the way, that Longreach memorial pool had 55mm as well, so when these things are happening, you know that the shift is well and truly here.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Go Flash Go Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 05 Jun 2016 at 10:25pm
Pretty much going to script Thumbs Up so get some boots for Flemington next week Wink
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Jun 2016 at 9:00am
I asked him this y'day Flash, not much about for us by the look of it:

It’s looking like no decent system setup for Western Vic. in the foreseeable future then, correct? The Ballarat region is still 3″ under this time last year & 5″ below average. No doubt when it breaks it’ll be a big one lol.

Anthony says:

Yes Gay, a long way to go with this one, will be well in front Im tipping by years end.

Week 2, June 9th– June 15th.

A slow moving Low pressure system will move down the NSW coast and start to weaken.

A second system will develop from the west with rain on the first day of this period.

Rain is likely to increase as the pre frontal trough taps into some tropical moisture.

In the middle of the period, yet another front will move through the Bight and bring rain into Victoria late into the period.

Rainfall : 10 – 20 mm.

Forecast Confidence :   High



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Aug 2016 at 7:26pm

Tonights Update : The inevitable is indeed on the cards.

Good evening guys, hope you enjoyed the rain today, its been wet! Some great falls around too, especially back on the Eyre Peninsula.

Generally, falls have been between 11 and 20 mm through there up until lunchtime. So its now saturated there as well.

Also, Victoria seeing some great falls this afternoon as well.

So, what did we learn so far with this system? Well, I will enlighten you! We learnt that when I meant Spring was coming early, well here it is.

This system carried much deeper moisture than anything in the last 4 weeks. So from that, you receive heavier rain.

And this was always the plan, I have maintained Spring will be early, so this is now going to ramp up from here.

In some ways it was a blessing the cold air has weakened, as it would have delivered an extreme flood event. In any case, one is just around the corner.

auswide_irenh1_latest (10)

From the satellite photo, the upper trough and cold front has now caught up with the mid level trough, so this will give it a bit of extra kick tomorrow in NSW. and then the process of the Low developing will begin over the North East corner of NSW.

gfs_z500a_ausnz_8

The upper low develops on overnight tomorrow in Southern QLD, and will provide good falls of rain through this region.

But this is just the sideshow, I’m going to show you something I haven’t shown you before. Obviously, I get the full suite of weather information, and only show you guys a portion of the information that I pay for.

But I couldn’t do my job without it, as you need to consider all possibilities. So one of the things that I do get is the 46 day EC Ensemble forecast, showing the 500 mb pattern.

eps_z500_168h_ausnz_1

So this is from today up to day 7, and shows that, on average, there will be more high pressure than low pressure over the country. So if you think about that and the weather we are seeing, alarm bells go off already.

eps_z500_168h_ausnz_4

So when I see something like this, which is the Day 11 – 18 forecast, the mind starts to boggle as to how much rain we are going to get.

And this is the fear going forward, that we are about to see some historic weather to come in the next couple of months.

If you recall the JMA, it also seen something very similar in week 3 and 4 as well, with a lot of lower pressure at 500mb as well starting to dominate.

So the reason I bring this up is because tonight GFS has done something extraordinary in week 2, and this will actually be the really extreme move I have been waiting to see.

gfs_z500a_ausnz_41 (1)

On day 10, all 3 of the models put some low pressure over Victoria, and then start to develop another trough to the SW of WA.

Its fair to say the GFS thinks we are going to see a truly historic event.

gfs_z500a_ausnz_47

By day 11, GFS puts a severe and extremely big upper trough over WA. The scary part is here is what it runs into.

gfs_rh700_ausnz_47

Huge tropical moisture, and this is going to be the big issue going forward. All of our rain events from here on in, are going to subject to massive amounts of moist air.

And you will see in a minute why that is an issue when I show the forecast rainfall.

gfs_z500a_ausnz_57

Now, you should take a photo of this above forecast, because its likely you wont see that repeated again. Thankfully this is 12 or 13 days away, so its likely it wont come off as extreme as this, and if it does, well we are all going to cop a biblical and historic event.

I don’t think I have ever seen anything like this in all my years of forecasting and studying weather, thats how significant this would be.

The good news is, however, that this is all forecast to be in the second week, between days 10 – 14, so chances are that whilst its probably onto it early, something this severe is unlikely, at least for now.

gfs_tprecip_aus2_65 (3)

So if this was to happen, the above rainfall forecast is what we would see, and I think thats fairly self explanatory.

And its only August, and its my opinion that something like is simply inevitable over the next few months. You cannot have low pressure at 500mb start to dominate and not expect scenarios like this to play out.

So I wanted to show you this tonight to be aware that if its possible to take precautions, that something like this is not all that far away, and to take them.

The only positive will be that the Murray Darling Basin will certainly get its fill up and start to rejuvenate.

Anyhow, aside from that, it looks like a good drop for the Tablelands in Northern NSW, as well the whole NE corner generally in the next few days.

 

ecmwf_tprecip_nsw_21

EC now has a lot of rain forecast, some places above 100mm along the coastal regions, as the low winds up there on Wednesday.

So its just generally wet everywhere, and more to come, and will only get worse.

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Cliffnotes: It's gonna piss down.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Aug 2016 at 7:59pm
Our property is 80% under water atm.  I mean up to 8-10 cm deep in it.  The driveway will almost certainly be impassable come morning so we'll be isolated motoring-wise with structural reinforcement necessary.  

Despite pumping water off tanks for 7-8 hours per day we're still losing ground with the overflow entering the septic system and threatening the integrity of the house foundations.

Other than that we're doing just fine.


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Aug 2016 at 8:05pm
The land of drought, floods & fires! Not sounding good at all 2nd Chance, with a lot more to come before summer Disapprove Looks like a great grass growing season but harvesting for hay????????????
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Second Chance Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Aug 2016 at 8:12pm
Cheers Gay.

ps it's been too wet to seed with annual rye, or to spray for broad-leaf, onion grass or dandelion.  So there'll be a heap of growth in the early Spring, little of it helpful.  Ouch

 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 01 Aug 2016 at 8:41pm
Despite being well above average the last 2 months, I think out water table must have been badly depleted as the lower 1/3 of the property should be calf deep in water rather than the odd small puddle which goes to show how badly the 'new' track is coping compared to the 'old'
We too are unable to spray, particularly as it's done by wagon not tractor & the weeds are sure appreciating it Ouch
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Fiddlesticks Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Aug 2016 at 10:02am
it's post el nino weather nothing we haven't seen before many times over..


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Aug 2016 at 4:42pm
Einstein Shocked I think most of us agree with you but it doesn't tell us what's likely to happen in the next few weeks does it?
A few members live in rural areas & are able to prepare for flooding with some notice.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Aug 2016 at 5:12pm
Originally posted by Gay3 Gay3 wrote:

Einstein Shocked I think most of us agree with you but it doesn't tell us what's likely to happen in the next few weeks does it?
A few members live in rural areas & are able to prepare for flooding with some notice.
 
 
 Gay ,   I have 3 sure weather forecasters .     I noted them for you this morning .
 
     The Hedges are shooting early in Brisbane   =      an early spring
 
     My back ( lumber area )     painful and I live alone .   =   Winter hasn't Gone
 
     My Hips & knees ,  The pain in both = terrible   =     =   winter or deterioration
 
            Sumary =       My f-ing hedges are lying
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Aug 2016 at 5:39pm
As long as the fingers & brain are in order, you've little to worry about  LOL Sounds like you're in dire need of some cannabis oil, something mere mortals such as you & I can only dream about obtaining Wink
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Aug 2016 at 6:00pm
Originally posted by Gay3 Gay3 wrote:

As long as the fingers & brain are in order, you've little to worry about  LOL Sounds like you're in dire need of some cannabis oil, something mere mortals such as you & I can only dream about obtaining Wink
      I'm telling tales out of school now but experimenting with these shady chemicals once has left me with a stiff neck.
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