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Long Range Weather Forecast

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Gay3 View Drop Down
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    Posted: 26 Nov 2015 at 10:19am

EL nino update...the El niño is now mature and is in the process of beginning its decline. I have been saying for a long time that this would repeat 2009/10, and not have the effect it normally would have on Australias climate. A big feature of El ninos is warmth, lots of it, and less humidity. So far, only the Top End has behaved in a fashion synonymous with traditional El ninos. The rest of the country has seen great November rainfall, albeit scattered thunderstorms events rather widespread rain.

In this post i will present my thoughts for the next few years. As most of you know i think the response to the current El nino is going to be extreme. So first off, current SSTs. You can see the warmer water stacked along the equator in the Pacific. And now the El nino is weakening that warmer water is moving this way. This warmth will become the cornerstone of the next few years wet spell, and will park itself against the Philippines, and move into the Indian Ocean as well. When i look at that graphic, i see an amazing amount of warmth, which i think we will pay for in the next few years.

As i touched on last week, the Southern Oscillation Index has rocketed back up, which it has never done in November in strong El Ninos. This means the atmosphere is now decoupled from the Sea surface, and the demise is all but on. In other words, you need the atmosphere to compliment the SSTs and turn westerly...they are not. Easterly trades are beginning to strengthen, and will bring the warm water this way.

CFS now sees it, look at its forecast in the 3rd pic, it crashes the temps into LA Nina range by late winter. JAMSTEC also noted in their latest outlook that the La nina is on. I expect this to be another massive 2 or 3 year La nina, and all the warmth we see now in the global temps will just be a small blip.

Speaking of which, here is the Mutlivariate ENSO Index, in pic 4. This is a fantastic graphic, LA Ninas are in blue, and El Ninos in red. Notice though, that there were a lot more LA Ninas up until 1976, and many more El ninos up until 2007. Thats because of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or PDO. When the PDO is warm we have longer and stronger El ninos, and when its cold the opposite thing happens.

Well, it happens that since 2007 we are into our cold PDO cycle. Its my opinion that we are in the same stage as the late 1950s, and the next 15 years we will dominated by massive La ninas. This has global implications temperature wise, after this El nino warming i think we will see a huge plunge in global temps for at least 3 to 5 years. If you look at the next pic you can clearly see the step changes with every El nino...warming, dropping, then warming more and dropping less, warming more and dropping less.

But look since 2007, in the next pic...a definite step change, where La Ninas drop the temps, they bounce up, and with every LA nina they drop lower. I expect the next drop after this spike to be brutal. Europe and the entire Northern Hemisphere will be plunged into the coldest temps in decades, even colder than the record cold of 2010.

So in summary. This El nino has peaked, and a breakdown with widespread rain and floods can be expected in the coming months. La Nina conditions will begin in the Spring of 2016, and last until 2018 at least. Global temps are spiking now and should stay elevated until April 2016. Then a huge correction will occur and temps will crash until at least 2019. This will take us to 23 years with no warming on Earth if it occurs.

Enjoy, hope you liked the detailed post, many more to come!

These mean nothing to me but I'm sure others are more meteorologically literate than I Wink wouldn't be hard.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Fiddlesticks Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Nov 2015 at 10:52am
El Nino looks like a very hot pussy...LOL
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote AndiCap Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Nov 2015 at 10:58am
ROLF!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote max manewer Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 26 Nov 2015 at 11:22am
You blokes need to paddle up the Orinoco to the Ayahuasca jungle, urgently !
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Feb 2016 at 6:59am
We need all the help we can get in the quest to find winners & these reports just may help with 'futures', planning holidays etc. Smile


https://www.facebook.com/A.V.Weather/posts/930607410368682

Good evening all, time for an El nino update, this is going to be a big update but will be worth it.

I know a lot of people have messaged about the next 12 months, i have been bullish on a La Nina, and a big one, since last year. The pattern is fairly easy to read if you can see the finer details. On this occasion though, its been blatantly obvious about the huge flip the climate is currently about to perform. Both the global temps and the sea surface temps (SSTs) are about to dramatically decrease.

We have now gone 4 years since the last record breaking La Nina. Since then we had 2 failed attempts, near misses in fact, at an El nino, and then this year we had a strong one, stronger than i had forecast. The effect though for an El nino as strong as this one was weak. We had a few months of heat and dry weather but on the whole the climate had already begun its shift.

So first, current SSTs. Notice the warmest water is now right in the middle of the Pacific, this is a good indicator that the Easterly trades are starting to pick up again. And as they do, they push the warm water towards Australia. And as they do that, the Convergence Zone in the tropics moves West towards Australia.

Anyhow, all the models now see the La nina firmly developing in the winter. the strength is really all that matters, but it must be noted that between February and April the ENSO forecasts are at their lowest confidence. That said, here is the consensus forecast from most of the models from the International research Institute.

Almost all put us into a healthy LA nina by years end, some outliers still but this will change after Easter once the Equinox comes around. So lets compare this event to this time in 2010, when the El nino was almost done in pic 3. There are two things to note here, first the cold water was already developing off the coast of South America, currently we still have warm water there. And secondly there is lot more warm water across the globe atm.

So, the warmth is the Earths mechanism of releasing heat out of the Oceans. So the global temperatures spike during an El nino, and then fall when there is a La nina. the 4th pic shows there Super El nino of 1998, and you can see there was more cold than this year. So my point is, once this LA nina comes on, there is much more cooling that will happen because all of the warm water will cool.

So expect a huge plunge in global temps, and a massive effect on the Northern Hemisphere temps. In 2010, records were smashed everywhere as temps plunged to record cold. This may go close to being even lower, so enjoy the warmth whilst it is here, especially in the NH. So in a year we can revisit this and see how much colder the waters are globally, and it will be massive.

So to summarise, La nina is going to come on in the Winter, and peak in January and February, and last 2 years. Given the heat we have seen released this last 12 months, i cannot rule out a 3 year La nina, or a 2 year one, a neutral year, then another 2 year La nina. So its going to be on big time.

Next, look at the MultiVariate ENSO Index (MEI) in pic 5. This picture tells a thousand words. So to explain, the blue is La Nina, the red is El nino. So, notice the first section with the blue arrow, thats the cold phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, or the cold PDO for short. Every 20 - 30 year the pacific flips. From 1975 to 2007 we were in a warm PDO. Since 2007, we have been in a cold PDO.

So if you look closely, during the cold PDO La ninas dominate, and in warm PDO El Ninos dominate. there are always swings but its predominately one way or the other. For example, in a cold PDO La Ninas average 21 months in duration, El Ninos last 8 months on average. In a warm PDO, its the exact opposite. Take a look at the period 1960 - 65. Its quite possible that where we are at in the cycle, and given this El nino was big i think thats exactly what will occur.

As for locally, here is a great graph that shows what an El nino means for Australia. This is pic 6, its Canadian rainfall forecast for March. So, El nines move the lower pressure west so all the rain ends up in the Pacific. Higher pressures over Australia so rainfall is suppressed. This pic is the perfect blue print for El nino effects on Australia. Note though its having little effect anywhere else, but you get the picture. Now watch this.

Here is the Canadians forecast of rainfall for December. As you can see, an enormous shift in rainfall patterns for Australia. There is another thing to consider too, the warmth in the pacific gets pushed East across the Top of Australia and ends up in the Indian Ocean as it goes through a current called the Indonesian Throughflow. So we may see even more warmth in the Indian Ocean this winter, so expect a lot of rainfall in the Winter and Spring right across the country.

So, my forecast is for a La Nina, and a big one, and huge global temperature drop lasting 4 or so years. Models see the La Nina coming on now so we will watch with interest and see what unfolds.

Hope everyone enjoyed this long winded post, its good news though as rainfall is about to increase substantially.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Feb 2016 at 6:59am
A.V.Weather
2 hrs ·

Morning all, quick update. I posted a few days ago about a decent dry spell, and i also mentioned that the pattern will evolve in such a way that the activity off the East coast would push west and would see a big ECL or cyclone develop.

As it happens, EC is onto it first and has two cyclones forecast late next week in 8 days time. Here they are in the picture. So whilst two cyclones is unlikely, it indicates the models are going to play this one out exactly as i had indicated, by bringing in huge Easterly surge to the East Coast, resulting in widespread flooding to most of QLD.

So anyone in coastal QLD should take note, the pattern is setting up for a sustained barrage over the coming months. And from this, the highs will slowly sink further South and that moisture will work its way South and provide rainfall for most Southern states as well.

So whilst we are in a dry spell in the South for the next week or so, it won't be long before things start to light up again. In fact we are possibly looking at a 2 to 3 week spell of humid unsettled and rainy conditions again from the middle of Feb onwards.

So its looking like my thoughts are right. Lets hope this translates into good rainfall for those who need it through the interior, and hope that the floods that come are not as bad as they could be.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Feb 2016 at 8:57am
I can remember when Melbourne had heaps of wet tracks and Sydney didn't. Or maybe that was just a dream. It was all so long ago- I can't remember clearly.Confused
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Fiddlesticks Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 04 Feb 2016 at 9:16am
Melbourne has always suffered it's own long term inferiority complex, being the distant runner up to glorious Sydney can't be good for your self esteem can it, particularly when foreigners talk about Australia they think of how much they'd like to see Sydney, the Opera House, the bridge, the fireworks on new year, the harbor and all the boats, yeah nah..they don't think of the Yarra or Port Phillip plod bay...:facepalm:


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Feb 2016 at 8:06am
A.V.Weather

Good evening all, not much happening and been super busy with work. That said, its not going to take as long as one would think for things to change. And i think its going to change in a big way, and the first one is we will see the possibility of breaking some humidity records in the next month or two.

Lets start by looking at the water vapour, as we know there has been a huge clearing out of moisture into the Pacific. But, look at the current satellite photo and you still see convection developing in the afternoon right across a fair amount of the country. Right from the East coast, up through central Australia and into WA.

This is because the low levels are moist, and the upper levels are dry. So the heating creates convection, and you get lift until it hits the dry slot. Soon enough, troughs form and storms will start developing again through the interior. Also of note is the action off the QLD coast is still heading west across the Top End.

Which brings me to SSTs surrounding Australia, which is truly astonishing. This is the 3rd picture. How long before this situation comes home to roost? Look at 2010 in the 4th pic of the global SSTs. This is even warmer, so once the wind turns Easterly again next week there is going to be an extraordinary amount of moisture in the lower levels streaming across the country.

All it will take is one cold pool through the form of a mid level trough and its going to be on in a massive way. In the last pic you can see models already sensing what will happen, Precipitable Water values increase down the Eastern Seaboard, and start feeding in from the NE. And significantly, the NW starts to get active as the monsoon trough thinks about firing up again.

The first cyclones will be dragged SE but i think the next waves won't be, this sort of heating in the oceans around us can only mean one thing. It will mean once this ridge breaks its going to light up in a huge way, probably in 10 days time. Again, QLD side will cop it and then it will feed inland.

So get ready fro some extreme humidity over the coming weeks. And enjoy the dry spell, it won't last.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote acacia alba Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 08 Feb 2016 at 11:34pm
We havnt had a dry spell for weeks,  or even months,  now.  Every couple of days it rains, and keeps on raining.  Ever since the April 2015 floods, we have rarely gone a week without rain .  Some of it heavy enough to cause flooding , altho not as bad .  
Last Friday there was 220ml in 24 hours in the headwaters , but we only had about 57 here.
The bit about the humidity is right tho.   Holy dooley its been so bad its like living in the tropics. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 09 Feb 2016 at 6:06pm
I don't think you'll be getting much respite any time soon acacia LOL

A.V.Weather
1 hr · Coldstream ·

Good evening all, time for an update on the Coral Sea cyclone activity. The BOM still believe that conditions are unfavourable however EC tonight is making it more intense. As you can see in the first pic there are two areas of development to be watched.

However, tonight EC hangs it around instead of dragging it SE. The furthest cyclone drags Se but the one closest to QLD does a loop and is right back hugging the QLD coast next week, as you can see in the second pic.

By this point something will give. The high pressure ridge in the bight moves through and allowed another shift, looking troughy through the interior, and bringing the moisture in. Heres the PW chart in the 3rd pic, and you can see the big infeed of moisture coming down the East coast as i hinted last night.

Were are at standstill but this is going to yield one way or the other soon enough. I still believe a huge push from the Pacific is on its way in the coming weeks. I may be wrong with the timing but i won't be wrong with the overall pattern, usually you will get a massive Rossby wave once the El Nino breaks down and they come from the East. And given the heat in the oceans off our coastline its not going to be long before this Westward motion is on our doorstep.

On another note, Water vapour in pic 4 still shows a dry atmosphere as a whole. But in pic 5 on the true visual, you can see that there is a lot of afternoon convection through much of the inland down the Eastern half. So its showing that the lower and mid levels are still moist owing to the Se flow, so whats going to happen here is that this moisture will continue to build so when a trough develops in the next few days thunderstorms are likely to explode through the inland.

Of course, models show none of it and keep us dry for the next 10 days, time will tell but these are good signs that things are building, so watch this space.

I've just asked him: I see Elders predict a VERY dry Mar/Apr/May & wet June for Vic Western district, any thoughts on this at this stage i.e. head on chopping block?

A.V.Weather
Yep, I don't buy it at all

A.V.Weather And our Autumn breaks are usually big...so i can't see how it won't be big given the suppressed monsoon

In response to a stirrer:

A.V.Weather For starters i run my own strawberry farm business, and second of all I'm talking about a big pattern shift globally thats about to bring sustained rain over many months. Im happy to put my balls on the line and see if I'm right, because thats how i see it. I won't be the first or the last to get it wrong, its the weather after all.
< title="Attach a Photo" name="" ="_n" accept="" ="">
Mark Gillies Yeah, that upper trough isn't going to be as nasty as first thought. Hopefully in the longer term 2-3 weeks the QLD coast will be bombarded by cyclone moving there way inland and resulting fronts picking the left overs and giving SE Australia a lot of rain.



Edited by Gay3 - 11 Feb 2016 at 8:34am
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A.V.Weather added 5 new photos.
1 hr ·

Good evening all, nice warm and sunny spell rolls on. As i said last night we won't have to wait long, the response is coming.

We will start again with EC showing 2 cyclones/tropical lows out in the Coral Sea. Again, it wants to take it SE as this is the normal directional flow. and as i keep saying, models are starting to see what I'm seeing..a big push from the Pacific. In 7 days it meanders the cyclone around and weakens it then starts to move it back towards the QLD coast, as you can see in pic 2.

In the 3rd pic is Precipitable Water for Tuesday. You can clearly see the low moisture being pushed onto the QLD coast, a low has developed south of Victoria, more on that tomorrow, and another burst of moisture is beginning to manifest itself down the NW WA coast.

So once the low passes Victoria and into the Tasman, what happens next is fairly easy to see. A big burst comes from the East in the tropics, and the high is now starting to push West past the WA coastline. i have indicated this in the 4th pic, this is part of what i like to see here, as when the La nina is on this is where the high pressure is likely to go, allowing Low pressure to hang around the mainland.

And look at PW for the same time, day 10. Now we are talking, models now beginning to see it. Big infeed from the East, big infeed from the NW, the highs down South and West, allowing it to happen. So this is what i have been saying may happen for the last week, whether it does or not in 10 days is irrelevant, its going to happen.

Somewhere along the line this exact scenario will occur, and when it does it will get very wet. Hopefully its sooner rather than later but as always time will tell.

I will update again tomorrow including the cold front and low for Victoria for the late weekend.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Fiddlesticks Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Feb 2016 at 7:39am
is this BROOKE doing these forecasts..???


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11 Feb 2016 at 8:36am
I've just re-edited the Feb 9 post & can't imagine BROOKE farming strawberries, she's too busy working on the HOLY Grail of punting Wink
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Feb 2016 at 9:56am

Good evening all. Well, despite the forecast of zero rain for almost 95% of the country, things didn't take long to change today. A low pressure trough has formed over the NSW region and delivered huge thunderstorms mainly into the Act this afternoon.

And here is how it happened. Moisture has been building as i have shown over the last few days, and a nice indeed has has also founds its way in from the Indian ocean. Add to that the air was quite cold as it came from the South then when it hit the hot dry air and converged with the South Easterly winds it exploded.

So as i suggested days ago troughs would form and storms would develop it has done exactly this. And its going to keep doing this over the next week or so before a bigger event sets up. Nothing has changed with the rest of the sequence, a cold front and low will pass to the South of Victoria on Monday and Tuesday, given SSTs are very much warmer than normal we could see productive totals along the Victorian coastline.

Here it is in the second pic, with the cyclone not moving anywhere either. But then its after that that things get cracking, another round of instability will come for at least a couple of weeks, and bring extreme humidity to most states. By next weekend here is the pattern in pic 3. High anchored west of Perth, tropical moisture starting to stream in from the NW and NE, troughs firing over the interior, and a low/cyclone that is intent on coming this way from the East.

The PW chart in pic 4 shows that its going to be humid, and with cold air lurking we run the risk of another massive event taking place. For the moment models dont see it and have little rainfall, however they are setting up the pattern and i think in the next few days things will look drastically different. Just a matter of lining up however the moisture is continuing to build so when it does line up rainfall is likely to be big.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Fiddlesticks Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 12 Feb 2016 at 2:28pm
what happened to the supposed rain for everywhere else...??

it was isolated on the ACT for a brief time and that's it....?


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Go Flash Go Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 21 Feb 2016 at 7:07pm
Was hoping Summer had been early this year for Victoria as makes for more comfortable Autumn racing not to mention work,
 
so far so good - Saturday was excellent  Smile
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Bloody HOT innit-
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Only because of the temperature Andi !!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 25 Feb 2016 at 6:24pm
https://www.facebook.com/A.V.Weather/

A.V.Weather
added 4 new photos.

Good evening all, well now thats done and dusted and we got no rain its time to look ahead to the next significant weather. And its looking like a big, sustained barrage coming up for March. We have had a lot of humidity building up for no reward for most of the summer, but thats about to change.

Im going to quickly discuss current situation and a couple of maps before i show you something really interesting. First pic is the Precipitable Water, a measure of moisture available, the brown being dry air and the green and yellow being the moist air. The red and purple, thats the nuclear air that brings floods.

Anyhow, the moisture is really building again across the tropics, normally with a failed monsoon like this we see a huge March and April in the tropics, and this year won't be much different. So we benefit, because all this moisture has to go somewhere and its usually South.

By late next week, the entire country is almost devoid of dry air, so we could be looking at a ticking time bomb scenario given the mass of brown, cold dry air moving up out of Antarctica that you can see in pic 2. If these manage to calling as they most certainly will at some point, then we will see records tumble most likely.

Nothing specific is setting up yet but its only a matter of time before it does. For the meantime, there is a lot of trough action kicking off late next week down the East coast to keep an eye on.

Part of the bigger picture, however, is the El nino and how its driving our weather. Here is the current situation with the SSTs. The warmth is in the Pacific, but also around Australia. usually warm water promotes low pressure over Australia, and that explains a bit why the Wa region is very active with troughs firing all summer.

So the blue circle is the warmest water of the two, that is the peak of the heat in the oceans. So one has to have low pressure and one has to have higher pressure, so the weather has no choice to put the higher pressure over Australia as the water is colder here compared to the equatorial pacific.

So if you look at the pressure maps, the anomalies show higher than normal over Australia, and lower than normal in the Pacific. This acts to disrupt the trade winds, and puts a lot of upper ridges over the country. So pic 3 is now. And you can see the red colour centred over us.

So when it flips, it will be savage. So i present the GFS forecast in 14 days time. And look at the difference, its huge. First off, pressure lowers massively here, in Asia, and the westerly belt become active with multiple fronts and trough becoming activated South of us. Also, high pressure has now developed off the coast of South America, so things are going to start shifting quickly in the next few weeks.

So this, the MJO coming back, and the general seasonal shift all point to a wet March, subscribers would know with the seasonal outlook that March was the focus month. First week will be fairly benign but things get cranking late next week into the weekend.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Feb 2016 at 6:09am
A.V.Weather added 7 new photos.
2 hrs ·

Good morning all, things definitely now moving, all the models now put us into a trough and wet period next week. As i said last week the first week in march will be predominately dry...after that its game on. Subscribers were given the heads up in the weekly update and models have had a big shift in the last 24 hours.

So in pic 1 and 2, the pattern has shifted and you can see the troughs developing on both sides of the country by Wednesday. You can see moisture in the first pic and the pressure pattern in the second pic. So whats happening here is the upper high is losing its grip and troughs are beginning to deepen.

And then, by the end of next weekend the flood gates open, moisture piles in to the centre of the country and into the trough and its goes berserk. Remember pic 3? I showed you this a couple of days back. Well, pic 4 shows that this is exactly what is likely to happen..

A huge monsoonal surge comes down and hooks into the trough, and rainfall becomes extreme. The pattern should be slow moving, so totals will be big. Pic 5 shows what that look like rainfall wise, and its very heavy rainfall. EC has the same (pic 6) but puts its over Victoria. So as we get closer we can knuckle down where this is likely to develop and end up.

Rainfall forecast is in pic 7, if this comes off will be a huge event, so models now see the shift is occurring that i have been talking about. So we will wait and see but i think its looking very promising for a massive few weeks of rainfall over a wide area.

Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Go Flash Go Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 28 Feb 2016 at 7:51pm
This is starting to sound familiar as from the times we used to talk weather and cyclones from those storm tracker posters.
 
Anyway another Saturday with no harsh weather next week's a bit dicey Thumbs Up
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2016 at 8:27am
Surely temp. records will be smashed for March? Not enjoying this extended Summer one bit but looks like relief's in sight, at long last Big smile

Good morning all, things still looking good. It appears we will see two sections to this current set up. Some instability through NSW and Victoria over the coming 7 days, whilst a huge rain bearing systems builds over Southern WA. The upper ridge is intact still over NSW but will slowly be eroded.

So we will start with PW for the next Tuesday. generally a good spread of moisture and models now starting to spread scattered showers and thunderstorms through Vic, NSW and SA. In pic 2 we see the pressure pattern that GFS has forecast, and you can see things look more active now as moisture is well spread through a lot of the country.

The good news is that EC and CMC are also bringing in more troughy weather over the weekend. In pic 3 CMC hangs the moisture out further West however begins to feed it in towards the Lower SE of SA and coastal Vic. So the signs are a bit more positive this morning that we won't have to wait two weeks for something, we may start to see scattered activity this weekend, and generally increasing early next week.

In 8 days time things get moving (pic 4), the high has positioned itself beautifully to give the country a huge Easterly surge of moisture, allowing a trough to set up over Southern NSW and Victoria. Meanwhile, a big system brews in WA and SA.

So by the time the weekend comes in 10 days time we have a good set up taking place. Pic 4 and 5 shows the pattern and moisture, notice the cold air in the last pic coming up, it will be interesting to see of this occurs. This could be the start of a big widespread event in two weeks setting up.

As for rainfall, GFS has this (pic 6) for the next 10 days. Which is quite active when comparing to the other models, i think the main action will be next weekend when all that moisture in WA gets here finally.

And this is why, in pic 7 by next Friday humidity at 700 is extremely high over most of the country, but its not the whole story, if the lower levels are dry you get mostly virgo when it rains. In pic 8 you can see the 850 HPA moisture which is 5,000 feet roughly is also saturated so this means any rains will be decent with shower snap storms.

So to summarize, the system is still on, this is still looking to be a wet sequence over the next 2 to 3 weeks. For the next 7 days we will see heavy rains through inland WA and Western SA, and scattered showers and thunderstorms through Vic and NSW, with totals being fairly light. By this time next week the trough deepens and totals get a bit heavier and the big system out west will track East and finally reach Victoria and NSW by the weekend or there abouts.

Given the amount of moisture available here when it finally sets up properly some places are going to get huge totals for March, i'm hoping it spreads it out for everyone. So its a slow build up but it will be worth it when its all done.

I will update again this evening, have a great day.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote Fiddlesticks Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2016 at 8:39am
Yesterday the 1st of March is always my fav day of the year, it signals to me the furthest point away from next summer...
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Tlazolteotl Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 02 Mar 2016 at 8:49am
Originally posted by Fiddlesticks Fiddlesticks wrote:

Yesterday the 1st of March is always my fav day of the year, it signals to me the furthest point away from next summer...

March is summer and has been for decades in my book.Angry


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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Mar 2016 at 7:49am
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A.V.Weather added 6 new photos.
3 hrs ·

Good morning all, what a lovely Sunday morning it is. When you work everyday its just another day really. But it any case its very humid, so we are primed for a huge month.

Models have now seemingly agreed on the path this will take. As i said last night, SA will be the big winners here which is great news for the Outback areas. We will see rain there for the next week on and off. For Vic and Southern NSW, it will be unsettled all week, we may see a small break Wednesday and then a bigger burst into the weekend which was always the target.

So, the best thing to do is show the Canadian model this morning as it demonstrates clearly how good of a set up is taking place. Pic 1, is tomorrow, showing the moisture out near Eucla still with the upper low. But notice the arrow, moisture will be shooting off to the SE through Southern Victoria so this is why we will see an unsettled week here.

In pic 2 the trajectory changes the high relaxes and the moistures moves in from the NW of Adelaide. this is Tuesday, and when this area cashes in, remembering the upper low will almost be stationary. By the time Thursday rolls around in the 3rd pic, the moisture is now piling up, the high pressure ridge is under Tassie and colder air is starting to emerge from the SW.

So in the next 5 days the system is almost stagnant, so you can see SA will be getting lots of rain. In pic 4 next Saturday morning, the high pressure ridge is still under us with the SE dip, and moisture starts to focus over Victoria and Southern NSW. This is likely to be the time when these areas do best.

The 5th picture takes us to next Monday morning, 7 days away and nothing has changed. The country is still flooded with moisture
and rain will be continuing. In pic 6 its at the end of the forecast period and shows much the same. Notice though the amount of moisture building across the Top End, if this starts feeding down with no resolve to the pattern then it really is going to be on.

So when we look at rainfall in pic 7 , you can see the model now increases rainfall greatly, especially over SA. And a deluge with a monsoonal burst over the tropics i mentioned a couple of weeks back, and is likely to go right into the months of May and June.

And the only way this set up is likely to stop is for my grand plan that i sent out in the weekly forecasts : a cut off low to form over SE Australia. At some point colder air will move up from the South and hit this moisture and a widespread, massive event occurs and we all go home happy.

On the weekly forecasts i had the week just before Easter and around Easter time for this to occur, its still on but i will update the weeklies on Tuesday and send them out. For my South Australian subscribers, rainfall likely to be heavier if you in Central SA.

Will update again tonight, have a great Sunday and let me know when you get rain if you are lucky enough!

Subscriptions to weekly updates for your area are free, you only need to PM your email & postcode Smile

They're very detailed & come as pdf docs.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (1) Thanks(1)   Quote maccamax Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Mar 2016 at 10:38am
After our highly paid professor of Climate Change  ( professor Flannery ) told us some years ago it would never rain again .      I have done the form as fast or good tracks only.
    Done the arz but that's not the point .        He was wrong like all these other goats who can't accept everything in life is cyclical.
 
  Half the population were out buying candles some years ago .      remember when we were to go into permanent darkness at midnight .             These people like Flannery don't ever admit error or madness.       They just change the wording to justify.
Why do they advertise toilet paper--   WHO isn't using it.

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Gay3 Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Mar 2016 at 6:39pm
A.V.Weather added 6 new photos.
1 hr ·

Good evening all, things heating up, literally. A great deal of energy is being unleashed at the moment and the shift has meant its our turn to cash in.

First off, Mackay radar. Its off its chops with a stationary trough delivering a deluge there. About 250mm has fallen in the Mackay region over the last few days, and more to come as it will hang around for a couple of days yet.

Pic 2 and 3 shows current pressure pattern and Precipitable Water.
Notice the high in the Tasman pumping the Easterlies, driving the moisture west. Unfortunately, still an upper ridge over NSW but will get to that later.

Pic 4 shows current Sat photo, everything is slow moving so falls are generally quite high through South Australia. Notice because its slow moving, further moisture is feeding in from the Indian ocean to enhance the rainfall in a couple of days.

So if we move through to Thursday in pic 5, its almost beyond belief when we see the dew points forecasted to be this high right down the guts of the country. So all the pieces of the puzzle are coming together. I think heavy falls are likely over 50mm through much of SA bar the SE districts.

And now, for further confirmation of a big shift, the EC has finally relented tonight and relaxed the ridge in pic 6. This is for next weekend, and if you look closely you can see the moisture creeping South in the Tasman Sea. This will be a critical move for our NSW friends.

If pic 6 comes off next weekend as the EC has here, or something close to it, then my forecast of a big cut off low and NSW rain will come. So dont despair my NSW friends, there is hope this may break sooner rather than later. I will be keeping a close eye on it.

As always, let me know the good news if you get any rain, the shift is on and its looking wetter every day. I will update again tomorrow, have a great night.

Experience is something you gain a few minutes after you could have used it!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Go Flash Go Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Mar 2016 at 6:57pm
Next Saturday looks crap, humid is not a good day at the races especially at Flemington no what the temperature.
 
Hoping for the sea breeze  Smile
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Go Flash Go Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 06 Mar 2016 at 6:58pm
* no matter = goodnights' a must Wink
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