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Lloyd Williams 2017 Contenders |
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Breeding Above All
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2013 Status: Offline Points: 715 |
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Posted: 13 Sep 2017 at 9:38pm |
Hi all,
I'm a great admirer of Lloyd and his obsession of winning Melbourne Cups. he is clearly a breeding expert and only chooses horses based on their pedigree (which is clearly close to my heart also). Essentially and simply he believes in the below criteria that horses need in Melb Cup 1. Breeding - above all (see what I did there) 2. Low in the weights (preferably 54 and below) 3. Win at least one lead up race Interestingly this week he has most of his big chances are nominated for the Race at Flemington over 2600 this week. Namely: Almandin Crocodile Rock Hans Holbein Aloft Bondi Beach Granddukeoftuscany (plodder but possible pacemaker) Since earlier this year he has said it is an even bunch and we all know he likes to keep them low profile to keep them away from the handicapper like last year with Almandin. Potentially he has Order of St George coming (don't think so but may) and Johannas Vormeer. I think his best chances this year are: Crocodile Rock Aloft Hans Holbein; and Johannas Vormeer I think we will see some big runs from some of his runners that need to win a race or two to qualify for the Cup but still keep low in the weights (which is why I haven't named Almandin or OSG). What are your thoughts on Lloyd and his chances? I'll keep this thread alive with updates as I think his horses will be in the pointy as the whips are cracking! |
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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The handicapper has said Almandin can not and will not be re handicapped. He can be included on that basis.
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reductio ad absurdum
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Breeding Above All
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2013 Status: Offline Points: 715 |
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Already think he's got too much weight.. an extra 4.5kg's.. Lloyd would prefer a lighter weight horse imo
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Baring bad luck Almandin is the only one with a spot in both race at this stage.
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reductio ad absurdum
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Hoffy95
Champion Joined: 07 Oct 2010 Status: Offline Points: 1039 |
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Djebel are you saying Almandin can't get any extra penalties from here (i.e. from winning key lead in races)? I thought with the new handicapping rules it was just in relation to the Caulfield Cup (i.e. Almandin could safely target that and win it without threat of extra weight in the Melbourne Cup)?
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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No horse weighted at 56 or higher will incurr any penalties.
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reductio ad absurdum
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Red Hare
Champion Joined: 11 Jan 2015 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 4233 |
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Lloyd might know what he's doing, but his son is a big dumb oaf who's personal wealth comes from the couple of car parks he bought with his pocket money. I can't believe they keep giving him clear airspace, but suspect he's there to give independent 'credibility' to whatever shady stuff the Caulfield Lads Club want to try and pull next.
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Lord Hybrow
Champion Joined: 05 Jul 2015 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 6683 |
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Lloyd also has REKINDLING, trained by Aiden O'Brien, who had previously been touted as a chance to come down for the Cup.
OUR CENTURY hasn't been mentioned in this thread either. Nice stayer, who was only just touched off by BIG DUKE in the 2017 Manion Cup. Personally, I don't understand Lloyd's logic this weekend. He's got 6 stayers all going around in the same 2500m race at Flemington. He also entered several of those into the Newcastle Cup 2300m, but didn't accept with any of them! Wouldn't it make more sense to split his stayers between the 2 races, particularly for those that need to get their ratings up to be any chance of getting into bigger races later in the spring? I would have thought that CROCODILE ROCK & HANS HOLBEIN would have been perfect candidates to run at Broadmeadow. Winning a G3 race like the Newcastle Gold Cup, would look good on their resume & if they won well, perhaps attract a small weight penalty to help them climb the Cup's order of entry. Is his aversion to NSW racing that strong, that he'd let that cruel the opportunity of his horses to fulfil their potential? |
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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He was concerned about the firm track at Newcastle.
He has won the race in the past so I believe his concerns to be genuine. |
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reductio ad absurdum
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djebel
Premium Joined: 07 Mar 2007 Status: Offline Points: 53960 |
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Currently Newcastle is a soft 5.
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reductio ad absurdum
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Long Row
Champion Joined: 05 Jan 2017 Status: Offline Points: 455 |
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Any news on Kilimanjaro? Was originally nominated for the stable race but was the only one that didn't accept.
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scamanda
Champion Joined: 11 Oct 2008 Location: The Manor Status: Offline Points: 16246 |
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Williams will surely target the Bart Cummings again to get straight into the Cup without having to race again. The Caul Cup, The Mackinnon and Cox Plate will be the others. But they are the races everyone else will be targeting so he'll need a good one. Especially with Winx in the Cox Plate.
I think Almandin on 56.5 kgs is a borderline chance of winning again. To me Johannes Vermeer on 54.5 kgs looks his best chance of getting a win. But the Caul Cup would suit better imo seeing he's never won beyond 2011. Mind you the European horses do improve over here some times. No doubt Lloyd will get one in cheap again.
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I started with nothing and still have most of it left
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Breeding Above All
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2013 Status: Offline Points: 715 |
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Forgot about Our Century, agree I rate him too |
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Balciano
Champion Joined: 09 Nov 2016 Status: Offline Points: 863 |
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Interesting horse Our Century, ran a narrow 2nd to Hartnell as a 3 yr old over 2 miles (Big Orange was unplaced) then had over 2 years on the sidelines.
With only 50kgs he'd need to possibly target the ballot exempt races but if he can stay sound he's one to watch. |
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Afros
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2009 Status: Offline Points: 15512 |
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On Lloyd having 6 in the 1 race on Sat, Nick was on racing.com a few weeks back saying how stupid it is that Melbourne has only 1 staying race on a Sat for all of September and all of theirs would have to go to this race for a run, I guess they've got the $$$ to run them all here and prove their point.
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TheCat
Champion Joined: 04 Aug 2011 Location: Adelaide Status: Offline Points: 492 |
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Read on twitter that KILIMANJARO & OUR CENTURY have had setbacks to their preps.
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"A dollar won is twice as sweet as a dollar earned."
Twitter: Paddywack6 |
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Red Hare
Champion Joined: 11 Jan 2015 Location: Victoria Status: Offline Points: 4233 |
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"We've bought too many horses in the 90-100 range and most of them are really only 80s, so we need more Saturday metro races to pay the bills. It's not just Dad's money now, I've got our 'friends' involved as well and they're much better at counting the beans than what I am."
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Breeding Above All
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2013 Status: Offline Points: 715 |
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Clearly under estimated Almandin.. the weight won't count this horse out.. looks very very good
Most likely the order of Lloyd's horses below Almandin Johannas Vormeer Aloft Crocodile Rock |
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Breeding Above All
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2013 Status: Offline Points: 715 |
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Will be interesting to see who he sends to the Herbert Power.. could be up to 5 going there:
Aloft Hans Holbien Crocodile Rock Our Century Foundry Anyone know why croc rock was scratched for Cummings? |
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Lord Hybrow
Champion Joined: 05 Jul 2015 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 6683 |
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Lloyd is also going to have his latest import, JOHANNES VERMEER, going around in the Caulfield Stakes, en route to the Caulfield & Melb Cups. Will be interesting to see how he goes too.
A few of his other stayers like GALLANTE & BONDI BEACH have gone missing. |
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Breeding Above All
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2013 Status: Offline Points: 715 |
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Very interesting.. took boosted on Johannas at 71's.. looks beautifully bred and weighted quite well imo for MC.. also guaranteed a cup run
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Breeding Above All
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2013 Status: Offline Points: 715 |
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Geez Aloft looked awful, what happened? Johannas showed plenty though! Almandin and JV look the big chances
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Gay3
Moderator Group Joined: 19 Feb 2007 Location: Miners Rest Status: Offline Points: 52012 |
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Aloft (IRE) - rider Ben Melham reported his mount got its tongue over the bit which affected its performance. A post race veterinary examination failed to reveal any abnormalities. |
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Wisdom has been chasing me but I've always outrun it!
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maccamax
Champion Joined: 18 Jun 2010 Status: Offline Points: 41473 |
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I had him a special yesterday and you could see the tongue flapping half a meter out the side of his mouth on the turn ( choked up ) He had set such a sizzling pace early , his bum may have been out too, by that stage. I doubt he could have won after the early burn , but that's lead up fitness tactics . Stuff the Punters. |
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JudgeHolden
Champion Joined: 16 Apr 2011 Status: Offline Points: 11729 |
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Much improved run by Our Century today. No luck at all and should definitely have run a place at least. Looks like he's screaming for further too. Really like this horse and there's a race for him somewhere this Spring.
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Breeding Above All
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2013 Status: Offline Points: 715 |
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Nick williams has said they will have 5 or 6.. I'm assuming he's including Rekindling and Johannas Vermeer in this...
What are people's guesses as the 5 or 6? Confirmed to start: Almandin Bondi Beach Johannas Vermeer Rekindling Others: One of Sir Isaac Newton or Gallante (possible 'leaders' and high up in entry and qualify) Aloft and Foundry (choked down and was disappointing) Assign (backed into fave and pulled up lame last start) Amralah (why did they even pay up?) |
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Lord Hybrow
Champion Joined: 05 Jul 2015 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 6683 |
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Lloyd also has recently purchased US ARMY RANGER, who is already assured of a Cup start. I assume it will be sporting the ‘navy with white armbands’ in the Cup.
Plus he has the very talented OUR CENTURY, who was warming up ok in the Cranbourne Cup last start. Not sure where he appears next, but will need to win his next start and get a weight penalty to jump up the order of entry. |
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Lord Hybrow
Champion Joined: 05 Jul 2015 Location: Australia Status: Offline Points: 6683 |
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Ooops, just noticed OUR CENTURY didn’t pay up at last round of acceptances.
That’s a shame, was looking forward to seeing him get out to 2 miles. Maybe he’s their Sandown Classic horse for 2017. |
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Breeding Above All
Champion Joined: 14 Jan 2013 Status: Offline Points: 715 |
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With the grand final for all of his horses approaching he has 6 starters.
Starters: Almandin Johannas Vermeer Rekindling US Army Ranger Bondi Beach Gallante Almandin, JV and Rekindling all under $20 and live chances... Almandin - could be anything and is the most talented imo.. weight could be the difference and Frankie doesn’t fill me with confidence. JV - has the breeding to stay and a huge live chance. Rekindling - lightweight which usually team Williams love.. under the radar and beautifully bred.. breeding suggests a good turn of foot I also believe Bondi Beach is a sneaky chance (albeit very sneaky). Same horse that had huge wraps last year with 56kg.. he’s now 54kg, but has struggled for form. Last year in the MC, he was shuffled back with the inside barrier and draws it again. |
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Sir Gov
Champion Joined: 17 May 2016 Status: Offline Points: 2278 |
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Buying the Melbourne Cup - sad to see.
Only 3 AUS bred in the race.
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